Boston Bruins Advanced Stat Thread

[Gee Wally]

keep it civil in here.

 

[ON3M4N]

Entirely.

I think the eye test also includes stats though, where it seems as if some of the “analytics” people rely solely on them.

Lastly, the analytics obviously don’t/can’t take intangibles into the equation (pun intended).

Take Lucic for example. I know he‘s nowhere near what he was even 3 years ago. and maybe over the course of the playoffs he wouldn’t be effective.

But, in a game 7, if he were here and the option was him, Greer or Lauko to play 8 minutes on line 4, I’d take him every time, regardless of what the stats say.

This is the same reason I predicted Foligno would turn things around this year. Pride, professionalism, and health aren’t quantifiable.

Lastly, as much as it might not seem it, I do appreciate what the stats are about. I just don’t base as much of my opinion on them as some others do.

Not for nothing, but the analytics last year for Foligno pointed to him not being as bad as he looked and him being more unlucky than anything.

 

[DominicT]

The KHL was ahead of the NHL in terms of player tracking and puck tracking with chips embedded in jerseys and pucks. The KHL even made the data public, that is until January when for some reason, they stopped.

It is the most accurate data available and doesn't rely on someone actually tracking where a player is. And there is information that we can only dream about seeing until the NHL decides they should make the data public. I honestly can't wait for that day to come.

So the eye test versus analytics. I love both. I'm going to go back to the World Junior Championships for an example. I made the comment after Sweden's first game that Fabian Lysell was not putting in the effort to come back and defend and that he was playing lazy. I got a lot of shit for that. Were my eyes failing me in my later years?

So I turned to someone who had access to the data because the WJC had the jerseys and pucks embedded with tracking chips and the data showed my eyes were not fooling me. Lysell skated with an average speed of 34.4 KPH on offense and only 19.2 KPH coming back to his own zone.

Remember the Cassidy press conference where he talked about the data and made the comment that the nerds upstairs are coming up with new data every day?

I can't wait for that to be made available to us.

 

[sarge88]

Not for nothing, but the analytics last year for Foligno pointed to him not being as bad as he looked and him being more unlucky than anything.

And even with that, many people in both camps were pushing for him not to return.

 

[ON3M4N]

And even with that, many people in both camps were pushing for him not to return.

Because (and I'm stealing this from @DominicT) people have a fast food mentality. That and fans react based on emotion. See DeBrusk last year or Linus Ullmark after the playoffs.

 

[sarge88]

Because (and I'm stealing this from @DominicT) people have a fast food mentality. That and fans react based on emotion. See DeBrusk last year or Linus Ullmark after the playoffs.

Very true in many cases.

 

[DominicT]

Because (and I'm stealing this from @DominicT) people have a fast food mentality. That and fans react based on emotion. See DeBrusk last year or Linus Ullmark after the playoffs.

I had fast food mentality yesterday. Had McDonalds for the first time in 13 years.

 

[ON3M4N]

I had fast food mentality yesterday. Had McDonalds for the first time in 13 years.

Are you a Big Mac kind of guy Dom? I gravitate towards mcdoubles myself.

On the data stuff, with trackers in pucks and jersey I imagine they can measure things like pass speed, distance, gap distance from a puck carrier, shot speed & height, avg distance a guy sits goals from. I mean it must be insane the data they have. I bet they could even measure hit force

 

[Smitty93]

Are you a Big Mac kind of guy Dom? I gravitate towards mcdoubles myself.

On the data stuff, with trackers in pucks and jersey I imagine they can measure things like pass speed, distance, gap distance from a pick carrier, shot speed & height, avg distance a guy sits goals from. I mean it must be insane the data they have. I bet they could even measure hit force

The analytics say to go dollar menu if you want the best value.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

The KHL was ahead of the NHL in terms of player tracking and puck tracking with chips embedded in jerseys and pucks. It is the most accurate data available and doesn't rely on someone actually tracking where a player is. And there is information that we can only dream about seeing until the NHL decides they should make the data public. I honestly can't wait for that day to come.So the eye test versus analytics. I love both. I'm going to go back to the World Junior Championships for an example. I made the comment after Sweden's first game that Fabian Lysell was not putting in the effort to come back and defend and that he was playing lazy. I got a lot of shit for that. Were my eyes failing me in my later years?

So I turned to someone who had access to the data because the WJC had the jerseys and pucks embedded with tracking chips and the data showed my eyes were not fooling me. Lysell skated with an average speed of 34.4 KPH on offense and only 19.2 KPH coming back to his own zone.

Remember the Cassidy press conference where he talked about the data and made the comment that the nerds upstairs are coming up with new data every day?

I can't wait for that to be made available to us.

Would loved to have seen the difference in speed (offensive vs. defensive) for Gretzky and Mario.

May not have been able to generate a number for defense.

 

[sarge88]

I had fast food mentality yesterday. Had McDonalds for the first time in 13 years.

There’s one a block from work. When my kids were in HS, I’d always grab a large fry and a coke to tide me over when I left work early to go to their games.

My doctor is glad they aren’t in HS any more.

 

[burstnbloom]

Agree entirely.

I think the frustrating/confusing part is that the “publicly available” advanced stats are reportedly different from the stats that teams use to guide their decision making.

So, when people outside the realm of an NHL team point to a stat to support their view of a player that might differ with mine, I’m left to wonder just how valuable those stats are vs.my perception from watching and/or using more traditional stats.

Again, I’m not discounting these advanced metrics entirely, but like you said they are just a piece and not all encompassing and infallible.

They are different but they are similar methodology, is my understanding. The use of expected results as a metric is prevalent in every major sport in the world and its widely accepted as the best methodology we have for measuring performance.

 

[HeartsAlive]

The analytics say to go dollar menu if you want the best value.

The CORP (calories over replacement product) is just off the charts. If 4ORRBRUIN learned to frame his argument as "double cheeseburger" vs "big mac" he might have a few more supporters.

I mean it's only big because of the extra lettuce and bread.

 

[burstnbloom]

Im referring to reilly being an 89th percentile of defensemen in JFRESH’s wins above replacement level player, 94th percentile in offense and 74th percentile in defense while playing against above average quality of competition over a three years weighted average.

That’s what I find hilarious. If his play on the ice was even remotely close to that, there would be multiple teams lining up for his services.

Then there guys like Vince dunn and Justin Faulk who are well known offensive defenders with single digit percentile EV offense and 80%+ percentile EV defense. there’s just so many countless examples.

I'm going to regret this.

Since Mike Reilly played his second season in Ottawa, he has started 283 shifts in the ozone and 263 in the d zone. He started 1900 on the fly. (just heading off the "hes sheltered argument). In that time period this is what has happened when he's on the ice:

Shot attempts for: 2290
Shot attempts against: 1980
Goals for: 96
Goals against: 90
High Danger Goals for: 56
High Danger Goals against: 44
xGF: 98.35
xGA: 76.33

I included the high danger goals because those are usually the ones that the D most closely has an effect on directly. I figured youd say something about the gap between GA and xGA so I'm heading off that argument at the pass.

These are all of the partners Reilly has played more then 75 minutes with over the past three seasons. I posted CF% with and without, GF and xGF. You can see most of these players get better results with him than without.

With all of those numbers, do you understand how much anecdotal bs you need to believe to invalidate his performance? The bruins haven't made many mistakes this year but their choosing of Forbort over Reilly bc of Forborts PK "prowess" (worst individual results on the team btw) was a mistake.

I don't expect a good faith response, as none of these conversations really are in good faith, but I'd love to hear how your opinion invalidates over 2000 minutes of time on ice performance.

 

[DominicT]

Would loved to have seen the difference in speed (offensive vs. defensive) for Gretzky and Mario.

May not have been able to generate a number for defense.

Wasn't much defenceman in that era now was there?

And comparing Lysell to Wayne or Mario isn't the way to go. Comparing Lysell to his teammates is. Then you can figure out who is at least attempting to play the team's system.

 

[ON3M4N]

I'm going to regret this.

Since Mike Reilly played his second season in Ottawa, he has started 283 shifts in the ozone and 263 in the d zone. He started 1900 on the fly. (just heading off the "hes sheltered argument). In that time period this is what has happened when he's on the ice:

Shot attempts for: 2290
Shot attempts against: 1980
Goals for: 96
Goals against: 90
High Danger Goals for: 56
High Danger Goals against: 44
xGF: 98.35
xGA: 76.33

I included the high danger goals because those are usually the ones that the D most closely has an effect on directly. I figured youd say something about the gap between GA and xGA so I'm heading off that argument at the pass.

View attachment 663748

These are all of the partners Reilly has played more then 75 minutes with over the past three seasons. I posted CF% with and without, GF and xGF. You can see most of these players get better results with him than without.

With all of those numbers, do you understand how much anecdotal bs you need to believe to invalidate his performance? The bruins haven't made many mistakes this year but their choosing of Forbort over Reilly bc of Forborts PK "prowess" (worst individual results on the team btw) was a mistake.

I don't expect a good faith response, as none of these conversations really are in good faith, but I'd love to hear how your opinion invalidates over 2000 minutes of time on ice performance.

Most (if not all) players are going to have more on the fly starts than ozone or dzone, so pointing to that doesn't head off sheltered minutes. Personally I don't care what he did in OTT. I'd rather look at Reilly compared to his other Bruins d-men. With that said since joining Boston

SF% rel: 0.04
GF% rel: -4.02
xGF% rel: 0.24
HDGA% rel: -0.02
ozS%: 57.7%

Of Bruins d-men with 50+ games, he has the 2nd highest o-zone start% with only Zboril being higher. With that said the relative numbers above indicate that when Reilly was on the ice the Bruins weren't any worse then when he was off the ice in SF%, xGF% or HDGA%. They were however worse with him on the ice in GF%

The role he needs to play as an OFD isn't available in Boston. Forbort fills a role the team needs in the form of a PK horse that blocks shots. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I remember posting them a while ago. When Forbort went out with an injury the Bruins PK took a nose dive in PK%. Maybe it was just a coincidence. I never looked to see what it did when he returned, but I'd imagine it went back up again.

 

[UncleRico]

I'm going to regret this.

Since Mike Reilly played his second season in Ottawa, he has started 283 shifts in the ozone and 263 in the d zone. He started 1900 on the fly. (just heading off the "hes sheltered argument). In that time period this is what has happened when he's on the ice:

Shot attempts for: 2290
Shot attempts against: 1980
Goals for: 96
Goals against: 90
High Danger Goals for: 56
High Danger Goals against: 44
xGF: 98.35
xGA: 76.33

I included the high danger goals because those are usually the ones that the D most closely has an effect on directly. I figured youd say something about the gap between GA and xGA so I'm heading off that argument at the pass.

View attachment 663748

These are all of the partners Reilly has played more then 75 minutes with over the past three seasons. I posted CF% with and without, GF and xGF. You can see most of these players get better results with him than without.

With all of those numbers, do you understand how much anecdotal bs you need to believe to invalidate his performance? The bruins haven't made many mistakes this year but their choosing of Forbort over Reilly bc of Forborts PK "prowess" (worst individual results on the team btw) was a mistake.

I don't expect a good faith response, as none of these conversations really are in good faith, but I'd love to hear how your opinion invalidates over 2000 minutes of time on ice performance.

Well then let me ask you a question. Where do you think the disconnect is then. Obviously he has great analytics, by every sites metric I’ve seen he plays against above average quality of competition. He only makes $3m, yet no one will trade for him and no one claimed him when he was free on waivers. He can’t even sniff an NHL roster right now.

Last year when the bruins traded for Lindholm, Reilly was getting healthy scratched before Lindholm went down with injury. So this isn’t some new scenario specific to just this season either.

 

[EverettMike]

Great, the worst term/phrase to ever enter this board's lexicon has officially managed to ruin yet another thread.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Great, the worst term/phrase to ever enter this board's lexicon has officially managed to ruin yet another thread.

 

[Donnie Shulzhoffer]

What a my way or the highway this has turned into.

Use all and come to a medium.

 

[NeelyDan]

Why is it so important for one crowd to convince the other? This all seems like poorly disguised self esteem issues to be honest.

 

[Gee Wally]

Please try to keep the deep dives and discussions in here.

(if you arent interested in this topic use ignore , thanks’

what was said in post# 1 is still effect folks.
Stay to the topic.
If not interested stay out or be thrown out. Makes no difference to me.

Last most important no personal shots.

Be civil.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Why is it so important for one crowd to convince the other? This all seems like poorly disguised self esteem issues to be honest.

Because in other threads posters like Rico shit all over analytics and then we get sent here to talk about it. It’s not complicated.

 

[neverwatchthegames]

Just gonna roll this little grenade through the door and then get back to work...

There is no such thing as the eye test. Anecdotal observation is well and fine, but there's no coherent criteria to administer the eye test. Everyone's free to amass a series of gut feelings based on watching the game. No one would ever argue that you can't have an opinion formed this way--just that it's incomplete. Every field of study relies successfully on data driven analysis.

 

[burstnbloom]

Most (if not all) players are going to have more on the fly starts than ozone or dzone, so pointing to that doesn't head off sheltered minutes. Personally I don't care what he did in OTT. I'd rather look at Reilly compared to his other Bruins d-men. With that said since joining Boston

SF% rel: 0.04
GF% rel: -4.02
xGF% rel: 0.24
HDGA% rel: -0.02
ozS%: 57.7%

Of Bruins d-men with 50+ games, he has the 2nd highest o-zone start% with only Zboril being higher. With that said the relative numbers above indicate that when Reilly was on the ice the Bruins weren't any worse then when he was off the ice in SF%, xGF% or HDGA%. They were however worse with him on the ice in GF%

The role he needs to play as an OFD isn't available in Boston. Forbort fills a role the team needs in the form of a PK horse that blocks shots. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I remember posting them a while ago. When Forbort went out with an injury the Bruins PK took a nose dive in PK%. Maybe it was just a coincidence. I never looked to see what it did when he returned, but I'd imagine it went back up again.

There is a lot of misuse/misunderstanding in this post.

1) Not caring about what he did in Ottawa is incorrect when you're using statistical samples. The more variables a trend carries through, the more valid the data. Seeing consistent performance on multiple teams with multiple partners isolates performance. It just doesn;t suit your preconceived nothing which I think is that relative stats mean everything?

2) using ozone start% lacks context. I'll give you an example. Everyone talks about Forbort being buried in the dzone. He has a 40% ozone start. Wow. Super tough minutes! Ya he starts in the dzone 9.25 shifts per 60 minutes this year. Gryz starts in the d zone 8 shifts per 60. Given their TOI, thats 1 dzone start per 4 games more for Forbort. Forborts ozone start% is 40% and Gryz's is 57%. The reason is Gryz is capable in the ozone so his exta shifts are there where forbort's are not.

3) The relative stats are frankly useless. Especially when its a D core with widly divergent outcomes, THat said, all of your underlying numbers showing better than average and your GF numbers behing less than (within the margin of error really) it points to bad luck/flukiness

4) The Forbort is a pk horse myth needs to die, especially with this bad correlation does not equal causation argument when he was hurt. The penalty kill when Forbort was out gave up similar chances to the month before, but their PDO was in the .800's in November. The regression came and Forbort came back and everyone gave him credit. It's infuriating. Forbort has the worst numbers of an of the regular PK players on this team in the following categories:

CA/60 (shot attempts against)
FA/60 (unblocked shot attempts against)
xGA/60 (expected goals against)
SCA/60 (scoring chances against)
HDCA/60 (high danger chances against)
PDO

so what does that mean? It means he's giving up more shots than any other d, more unblocked shots, more expected goals, more scoring chances of all kind, more high danger chances against and he's been the luckiest by PDO. His on ice sv% is 92.06. Charlie McAvoy, for example, is .875. It has long been proven that their is no way for defenseman to influence on ice sv% and that its shifty and nebulous, but there isnt a correlation between good play and poor play by D. so - tl:dr - he's fine on the PK but everyone else is better, and given how pitiful he is at 5v5, its probably not worth rostering him. The bruins disagree, clearly, but I think thats based on a role ideal than anything quantifiable.