Confirmed with Link: Adam Fox for 2019 2nd (NYR), 2020 3rd (cond.)

[ReggieDunlop68]

Adam Fox is Adam Fox. Anything could be in the mystery box, it could even be Adam Fox!

Adam Fox???

 

[Levitate]

As young as him? He'll be 28 at the beginning of next season. He's not that young.

It's always really difficult to foresee who will actually make it to FA. But there's a lot of potential FA's that are also quite good. Hall next year, Landeskog/Hamilton 2021. But what I am sure of, by the time the Rangers are ready to compete and have a stocked cupboard, they can be in on any trades when a premium player becomes available, which happens every year or two (Stone, Hall, EK, etc.)

It just makes no sense to lock themselves into a long-term contract for a guy who:

A: Will likely be on the wrong side of 30 come our next window.

B: Will not necessarily fill the biggest need. Right now our wings look pretty good moving forward (KK, Kravtsov, Buch, Chytil, etc.).

I'd rather save that big contract space for either re-signing our own players when the time comes, or getting someone who actually fills a void.

Yeah I don't disagree, but I'll be pretty shocked if Hall, Landeskog, etc make it to free agency. Hamilton I could pass on. I know he grades out well but for some reason he irritates me with how he plays.

At any rate, I think people also need to acknowledge that the Rangers aren't going about this rebuild in a "tear everything down and be REALLY BAD for a long time and completely rebuild just with draft picks" (which is probably a terrible way to do it anyways), but it has always been stated that they wanted to find young players who were ready to start contributing now rather than 3-4 years down the line as well as drafting new talent. I am 100% sure Gorton is hoping this team is competitive in 2020-2021 and would not be surprised if he's pushing the pace on the rebuild even more after getting pick #2.

If the Rangers scouts did their job this isn't going to be a long rebuild, for better or worse.

 

[Levitate]

Let's, in a vacuum, look some of the Rangers recent second round picks (we haven't picked a ton in recent years, so it's a little scattered):

2018: Olof Lindbom
2015: Ryan Gropp
2014: Brandon Halverson
2012: Boo Nieves
2010: Christian Thomas
2009: Ethan Werek
2008: Derek Stepan
2007: Antoint Lafleur
2006: Artem Anisimov
2005: Marc-Andre Cliche, Michael Sauer
2006: Brandon Dubinsky
2004: Bruce Graham, Dane Byers, Darin Olver
2003: Ivan Baranka
2002: Lee Falardeau
2001: Fedor Tyutin
2000: Filip Novak

How many of you even know half of these names?

I know all of them and it hurts

 

[Fireonk]

And since I fear people are going to come in here and just use the list of Rangers 2nd rounders as an example that the Rangers just happen to be bad in the 2nd round.

Here are the Devils:
2017 - Jesper Boqvist
2016 - Nathan Bastian
2015- Mackenzie Blackwood
2014 - Joshua Jacobs
2013 - Steven Santini
2012 - Damon Severson
2010 - Jon Merrill
2009 - Eric Gelinas
2008 - Brandon Burlon
2007 - Mike Hoeffel
2006 - Alexander Vasyunov
2005 - Jeff Frazee
2003 - Petr Vrana
2002 - Anton Kadeykin, Barry Tallackson
2001 - Igor Pohanka, Tuomas Pihlman, Victor Uchevatov
2000 - Teemu Laine, Alexander Suglobov, Matt DeMarchi, Paul Martin

I am sure there are teams with better and worse track records in the 2nd round, but my point is a 2nd round pick really just doesnt have that much value.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

And since I fear people are going to come in here and just use the list of Rangers 2nd rounders as an example that the Rangers just happen to be bad in the 2nd round.

Here are the Devils:
2017 - Jesper Boqvist
2016 - Nathan Bastian
2015- Mackenzie Blackwood
2014 - Joshua Jacobs
2013 - Steven Santini
2012 - Damon Severson
2010 - Jon Merrill
2009 - Eric Gelinas
2008 - Brandon Burlon
2007 - Mike Hoeffel
2006 - Alexander Vasyunov
2005 - Jeff Frazee
2003 - Petr Vrana
2002 - Anton Kadeykin, Barry Tallackson
2001 - Igor Pohanka, Tuomas Pihlman, Victor Uchevatov
2000 - Teemu Laine, Alexander Suglobov, Matt DeMarchi, Paul Martin

I am sure there are teams with better and worse track records in the 2nd round, but my point is a 2nd round pick really just doesnt have that much value.

Yeah, people definitely overrate the value of draft picks in general. You want to have as many as you can to give yourself as many chances to hit as possible, like buying extra tickets in a raffle drawing, but the idea that it's a bad move to not trade 2 2nds for Fox is ridiculous to me.

Known quantity, high end prospect who is a sure fire NHLer vs low statistical probability of producing an NHLer with one of those picks.

You like the player, you go get the player for a fair price. That's what happened here. Win win for both sides.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

Yeah, people definitely overrate the value of draft picks in general. You want to have as many as you can to give yourself as many chances to hit as possible, like buying extra tickets in a raffle drawing, but the idea that it's a bad move to not trade 2 2nds for Fox is ridiculous to me.

Known quantity, high end prospect who is a sure fire NHLer vs low statistical probability of producing an NHLer with one of those picks.

You like the player, you go get the player for a fair price. That's what happened here. Win win for both sides.

I think the main issue for the Rangers is how badly the defense needs to be overhauled. They can't really gamble with that, so it was a good trade on multiple levels.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

I think the main issue for the Rangers is how badly the defense needs to be overhauled. They can't really gamble with that, so it was a good trade on multiple levels.

Yup, when you factor in the Rangers' needs, the player Fox is, the abundance of picks they've acquired in the rebuild giving them ammo to do it and basically not feel it at all...even more reason why it's basically a slam dunk.

 

[MadHookUp]

This thread reminds me of the last 2 trade deadlines where people were complaining about the McDonagh trade, and we should have waited till next trade deadline to move him. Or the Zucc trade, and how we should have moved him the previous deadline. Here are some things to think about...

1.) Trade was made while Carolina was up 2-0 in the series against the Islanders with the next two games being at home. Say Gorton decides to wait till next year and Carolina makes it to the Eastern Conference Finals. What if they make the Stanley Cup Finals? Then Fox decides that as badly as he wants to play with the Rangers, passing up at a chance for a cup just might not be worth it and signs with Carolina. Then people would be crying about Gorton not acting sooner.

2.) Maybe the Rangers decide to wait till next year. In that time the Rangers still have Shattenkirk, DeAngelo, Pionk, Staal, Skjei, Smith and Claesson. Hajek and Lindgren makes the team. 1 or more of Day, Bigras or Joey Keene surprise some people and make the squad. Miller, Lundkvist, Rykov and Reunanen decide to make the trip over to the states. The Rangers potentially draft some more defenseman this year. While its obvious that Fox wants to play with the Rangers. Its well reported that his hesitation with Carolina and Calgary is that he wants to play in the NHL, and there isn't space for him on either roster. Its quite possible he has a handful of teams he is willing to play for, or potentially willing to add some teams when he looks at the Rangers prospect depth. Then decides to play somewhere else. Everyone would be up in arms that Gorton didnt trade for him and remove that consideration from his mind.

Ignoring the whole "Adam Fox will only play for the Rangers" headline, we fleeced Carolina in this trade. If we could look into a magic ball and know with 100% certainty that Fox would have signed with the Rangers next year, then yeah... this would have been a bad move. But is it worth the risk when you don't have that 100% certainty? While getting him for free would have been awesome, I am just thrilled to have the guy on the team.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Yeah I don't disagree, but I'll be pretty shocked if Hall, Landeskog, etc make it to free agency. Hamilton I could pass on. I know he grades out well but for some reason he irritates me with how he plays.

At any rate, I think people also need to acknowledge that the Rangers aren't going about this rebuild in a "tear everything down and be REALLY BAD for a long time and completely rebuild just with draft picks" (which is probably a terrible way to do it anyways), but it has always been stated that they wanted to find young players who were ready to start contributing now rather than 3-4 years down the line as well as drafting new talent. I am 100% sure Gorton is hoping this team is competitive in 2020-2021 and would not be surprised if he's pushing the pace on the rebuild even more after getting pick #2.

If the Rangers scouts did their job this isn't going to be a long rebuild, for better or worse.

I agree with what you said, although I don't think any team plans to have a 'long-rebuild.'

Regardless, a 28 year old Panarin, who will sign a contract that will surely bring him to his mid-30's hardly seems to fit the plan. It would appear much more likely that the Rangers spend this season evaluating, developing and stockpiling. I think next year and the year after, they could be very active in FA should a Hall or Landeskog make it, or they will turn to the trade market to look for a guy like Stone, Nash or Hall.

 

[Alluckks]

If Adam Fox was in this draft right now (ignore the age issue) then he would go #3 overall to Chicago

 

[Fugazy]

If Adam Fox was in this draft right now (ignore the age issue) then he would go #3 overall to Chicago

What makes you say that?

 

[Off Sides]

This thread reminds me of the last 2 trade deadlines where people were complaining about the McDonagh trade, and we should have waited till next trade deadline to move him. Or the Zucc trade, and how we should have moved him the previous deadline. Here are some things to think about...

1.) Trade was made while Carolina was up 2-0 in the series against the Islanders with the next two games being at home. Say Gorton decides to wait till next year and Carolina makes it to the Eastern Conference Finals. What if they make the Stanley Cup Finals? Then Fox decides that as badly as he wants to play with the Rangers, passing up at a chance for a cup just might not be worth it and signs with Carolina. Then people would be crying about Gorton not acting sooner.

2.) Maybe the Rangers decide to wait till next year. In that time the Rangers still have Shattenkirk, DeAngelo, Pionk, Staal, Skjei, Smith and Claesson. Hajek and Lindgren makes the team. 1 or more of Day, Bigras or Joey Keene surprise some people and make the squad. Miller, Lundkvist, Rykov and Reunanen decide to make the trip over to the states. The Rangers potentially draft some more defenseman this year. While its obvious that Fox wants to play with the Rangers. Its well reported that his hesitation with Carolina and Calgary is that he wants to play in the NHL, and there isn't space for him on either roster. Its quite possible he has a handful of teams he is willing to play for, or potentially willing to add some teams when he looks at the Rangers prospect depth. Then decides to play somewhere else. Everyone would be up in arms that Gorton didnt trade for him and remove that consideration from his mind.

Ignoring the whole "Adam Fox will only play for the Rangers" headline, we fleeced Carolina in this trade. If we could look into a magic ball and know with 100% certainty that Fox would have signed with the Rangers next year, then yeah... this would have been a bad move. But is it worth the risk when you don't have that 100% certainty? While getting him for free would have been awesome, I am just thrilled to have the guy on the team.

While I agree with everything you posted, he has not signed yet, perhaps he will not until the RD path is a little clearer, so I'm not too sure 2.) does not already apply in some way. If they also add Trouba or some other vet NHL RD in the mean time...

I mean, I hope the delay in signing is for some other reason, I'd hope that the Rangers and him already agreed in principle to an entry level contract and just the details/logistics are holding it up, yet until it's done I'm going to have some reservations about this being such a good gamble on the Rangers part should it have been more of an assumption he would sign so therefor the return made sense.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

What makes you say that?

Well if Fox just had the season he had as a draft eligible player It'd be hard not to take him that high.

 

[broadwayblue]

I agree with what you said, although I don't think any team plans to have a 'long-rebuild.'

Regardless, a 28 year old Panarin, who will sign a contract that will surely bring him to his mid-30's hardly seems to fit the plan. It would appear much more likely that the Rangers spend this season evaluating, developing and stockpiling. I think next year and the year after, they could be very active in FA should a Hall or Landeskog make it, or they will turn to the trade market to look for a guy like Stone, Nash or Hall.

I understand and mostly agree with what you are saying. However, if the organization truly believes that they will be able to contend two seasons from now I don't think they would pass on a top talent just because they won't maximize his value in the first year. And it's not like Panarin is going to stink in a year or two. It's really the last couple of any UFA contract you have to be worried about.

 

[Thirty One]

Well if Fox just had the season he had as a draft eligible player It'd be hard not to take him that high.

In that case, we would be talking about the big 3 of this year's draft, not the big 2.

If he were somehow draft eligible now as a 21-year old, I think he would be right in the thick of that 3-12 range.

 

[Thirty One]

I understand and mostly agree with what you are saying. However, if the organization truly believes that they will be able to contend two seasons from now I don't think they would pass on a top talent just because they won't maximize his value in the first year. And it's not like Panarin is going to stink in a year or two. It's really the last couple of any UFA contract you have to be worried about.

Ehh, not really. David Clarkson, James Neal, , Milan Lucic, Ryan Callahan, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, our own Wade Redden and Kevin Shattenkirk were contracts that looked bad almost immediately even when signing in their late 20s or early 30s.

 

[MadHookUp]

While I agree with everything you posted, he has not signed yet, perhaps he will not until the RD path is a little clearer, so I'm not too sure 2.) does not already apply in some way. If they also add Trouba or some other vet NHL RD in the mean time...

I mean, I hope the delay in signing is for some other reason, I'd hope that the Rangers and him already agreed in principle to an entry level contract and just the details/logistics are holding it up, yet until it's done I'm going to have some reservations about this being such a good gamble on the Rangers part should it have been more of an assumption he would sign so therefor the return made sense.

I had the same concern. I figured he would have been signed within an hour of the trade. But Bob McKenzie did mention they are already working on the contract, something he wasn't willing to do with Carolina. I imagine the hold up is related to bonuses.

 

[Levitate]

Ehh, not really. David Clarkson, James Neal, , Milan Lucic, Ryan Callahan, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, our own Wade Redden and Kevin Shattenkirk were contracts that looked bad almost immediately even when signing in their late 20s or early 30s.

Most of those guys everyone knew were going to be bad or risky signings because of their age or style of play. Clarkson, Lucic, Callahan, Ladd, Okposo...more physical style players that everyone was wary about in terms of the toll taken on their bodies and style of play losing effectiveness. Neal I think signed a contract when he was older? Shattenkirk immediately got injured, I find it hard to rate that one so far other than it ultimately doesn't really fit what the team is trying to do now. Redden is a "good" one though

 

[Off Sides]

I had the same concern. I figured he would have been signed within an hour of the trade. But Bob McKenzie did mention they are already working on the contract, something he wasn't willing to do with Carolina. I imagine the hold up is related to bonuses.

There is probably also some other logistical stuff, I'm not even sure if he has an agent, lawyer, whatever, lined up. I'm not panicking about it, just the other extreme side, maybe the Rangers never were allowed to talk to him, they traded that much for just his rights, and now he is waiting to see what they do with their right side D before he signs, etc all entered my thought process while first hearing about the trade.

 

[Thirty One]

Most of those guys everyone knew were going to be bad or risky signings because of their age or style of play. Clarkson, Lucic, Callahan, Ladd, Okposo...more physical style players that everyone was wary about in terms of the toll taken on their bodies and style of play losing effectiveness. Neal I think signed a contract when he was older? Shattenkirk immediately got injured, I find it hard to rate that one so far other than it ultimately doesn't really fit what the team is trying to do now. Redden is a "good" one though

Yeah, a lot of them were risky for that reason. And I think Panarin is an exceptionally good candidate to age well, as he played much fewer games per season until he was 24, and his hits given and hits taken stats are negligible. Neal signed when he was 30 and was a healthy scratch in year 1. Shattenkirk got injured, but I'm not about to take that out of the sample, because that's a risk with every long-term contract. My point is there's always risk throughout any long-term contract, it's just about how much.

 

[broadwayblue]

Ehh, not really. David Clarkson, James Neal, , Milan Lucic, Ryan Callahan, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, our own Wade Redden and Kevin Shattenkirk were contracts that looked bad almost immediately even when signing in their late 20s or early 30s.

There are always terrible contracts. But generally if you are signing a premiere UFA to a 6 or 7 year deal it's not the first three or four you need to be worried about.

 

[Thirty One]

I had the same concern. I figured he would have been signed within an hour of the trade. But Bob McKenzie did mention they are already working on the contract, something he wasn't willing to do with Carolina. I imagine the hold up is related to bonuses.

The word he used was finalizing.

 

[Rempe73]

Not sure if someone mentioned this before, but is a Will Butcher comparison a good one for Fox? Similar potential, similar playing style (playmakers with great vision and hockey sense; each have an average shot; each have defensive issues; neither plays physical), both came out of the NCAA. Maybe Fox has higher upside?

 

[Thirty One]

Not sure if someone mentioned this before, but is a Will Butcher comparison a good one for Fox? Similar potential, similar playing style (playmakers with great vision and hockey sense; each have an average shot; each have defensive issues; neither plays physical), both came out of the NCAA. Maybe Fox has higher upside?

Barely half Fox's career college points/game.

 

[Lays]

Not sure if someone mentioned this before, but is a Will Butcher comparison a good one for Fox? Similar potential, similar playing style (playmakers with great vision and hockey sense; each have an average shot; each have defensive issues; neither plays physical), both came out of the NCAA. Maybe Fox has higher upside?

Butcher was never once near Fox’s level. He’s a pure offensive 4/5 dman. Even devils fans think he isn’t good
Fox doesn’t have an average shot, it’s one of his strengths. Can snipe it from far out or can get his shot through well. Fox doesn’t really have defensive issues either but Butcher definitely does. And I’m not just saying this because he’s a Ranger, I’ve been a big fan of Fox for a while, he’s a consensus top 40 prospect. When Fox is on the ice (at least for Harvard) the whole play runs through him. I think he’ll be similar to Shatty with less offense and better defense