Actual Player Value Thread

[ChaosAgent]

So my long-time best friend @Gurglesons and I had an idea in the Favorite Player legacy contract thread.

What do you think the current Penguins team is actually worth right now, cap-wise?

So this isn't "what you'd offer them as a contract extension," this is their worth on a 1-year deal, right now. Up to the cap.

Guentzel ($6M) - Crosby ($8.7M) - Rust ($6M)
Zucker ($2.5M) - Malkin ($7.1M) - Kapanen ($4.7M)
ZAR ($1.5M) - Carter ($4.5M) - Tanev ($2.3M)
Zohorna ($1M) - Blueger ($2.4M) - Gaudreau ($1.5M)
Total forwards: $48.2M

Dumoulin ($7M) - Letang ($9.5M)
Matheson ($3.5M)-Marino ($3.5M)
Petts ($2.5M)-Ruhwedel ($.8M)
Total defense: $26.3M

Jarry ($3M)
DeSmith ($1.7M)
Goalies: $4.7M

Click to read more...

 

[Gurglesons]

I was going to say do it after the ED. But sure.

Thrust through it.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Thread locked until Wednesday at OP's request.

Ping me if I forget to re-open.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

ED draft is done, let's reopen this! Great thread. I cannot wait to read you guys

 

[ChaosAgent]

Thanks, Scandy!

Rules are simple: what are players actually worth to us this year? As of today...

Guentzel ($6M) - Crosby ($8.7M) - Rust ($6M)
Zucker ($2.5M) - Malkin ($7.1M) - Kapanen ($4.7M)
ZAR ($1.5M) - Carter ($4.5M) - Gaudreau ($1.5M)
Zohorna ($1M) - Blueger ($2.4M) - Angello ($1M)
Total forwards: $46.9M

Dumoulin ($7M) - Letang ($9.5M)
Matheson ($3.5M)-Marino ($3.5M)
Petts ($2.5M)-Ruhwedel ($.8M)
Total defense: $26.3M

Jarry ($3M)
DeSmith ($1.7M)
Goalies: $4.7M

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I'll take a shot at it:

Guentzel ($6M) - Crosby ($10M) - Rust ($5M)
Zucker ($2M) - Malkin ($8M) - Kapanen ($5M)
ZAR ($2M) - Carter ($3M) - Gaudreau ($0.8M)
Zohorna ($0.75M) - Blueger ($3M) - Angello ($0.75M)
Total forwards: $46.3M

Dumoulin ($5M) - Letang ($9M)
Matheson ($4M)-Marino ($5M)
Petts ($3M)-Ruhwedel ($1M)
Total defense: $27M

Jarry ($5M)
DeSmith ($3M)
Goalies: $8M

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'll take a shot at it:

Guentzel ($6M) - Crosby ($10M) - Rust ($5M)
Zucker ($2M) - Malkin ($8M) - Kapanen ($5M)
ZAR ($2M) - Carter ($3M) - Gaudreau ($0.8M)
Zohorna ($0.75M) - Blueger ($3M) - Angello ($0.75M)
Total forwards: $46.3M

Dumoulin ($5M) - Letang ($9M)
Matheson ($4M)-Marino ($5M)
Petts ($3M)-Ruhwedel ($1M)
Total defense: $27M

Jarry ($5M)
DeSmith ($3M)
Goalies: $8M

I think this could spur some discussion on the John Marino Story Arc.

His rookie year he was a ~$6-7M player. I viewed his sophomore year more charitably than many but I think even through a charitable lens it was more like $3M.

If he can get back to his rookie form that is huge for our D corps.

 

[ChaosAgent]

@JackFr what would the equivalent be with WAR?

If you say 0 WAR is $.8M and each WAR is worth like $1-$2M

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I think this could spur some discussion on the John Marino Story Arc.

His rookie year he was a ~$6-7M player. I viewed his sophomore year more charitably than many but I think even through a charitable lens it was more like $3M.

If he can get back to his rookie form that is huge for our D corps.

I agree with your assessment.

Basically, if his rookie season is a 6 or a 7 and last year a 3 or a 4, I'd offer him 5M.

Like Sid, for example, his comparables are guys like McDavid, MacKinnon, Marchand, etc. I could not give him less than 10M value.

Geno, I "dropped" to 8m because he has the potential to be a 10M player, but with the injuries, he could also end up being a 6M.

I initially had Letang at a 10M, but looking at comparables, the highest was Hedman at around 9.5M so I had to go a little under that.

I might have gone too high on goalies, but that's how they'll have to perform for us to be any good.

I also went high on Blueger and ZAR, but I value their defensive contribution a lot and they have metrics comparable to the best defensive players. Since we are talking about value... I thought it need to be valued.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I agree with your assessment.

Basically, if his rookie season is a 6 or a 7 and last year a 3 or a 4, I'd offer him 5M.

Like Sid, for example, his comparables are guys like McDavid, MacKinnon, Marchand, etc. I could not give him less than 10M value.

Geno, I "dropped" to 8m because he has the potential to be a 10M player, but with the injuries, he could also end up being a 6M.

I initially had Letang at a 10M, but looking at comparables, the highest was Hedman at around 9.5M so I had to go a little under that.

I might have gone too high on goalies, but that's how they'll have to perform for us to be any good.

I also went high on Blueger and ZAR, but I value their defensive contribution a lot and they have metrics comparable to the best defensive players. Since we are talking about value... I thought it need to be valued.

Just as a quick over v. under, here's the guys with the highest value relative to cap hit in your lineup:
1. Kapanen - $1.8M
2. Letang - $1.75M
3. DeSmith - $1.75M
4. Rust - $1.5M
5. Jarry - $1.5M
6. Sid - $1.3M

Lowest Value
1. Zucker: (-$3.5M)
2. Geno (-$1.5M)
3. Petts (-$1M)
4. Math (-.8M)

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Just as a quick over v. under, here's the guys with the highest value relative to cap hit in your lineup:
1. Kapanen - $1.8M
2. Letang - $1.75M
3. DeSmith - $1.75M
4. Rust - $1.5M
5. Jarry - $1.5M
6. Sid - $1.3M

Lowest Value
1. Zucker: (-$3.5M)
2. Geno (-$1.5M)
3. Petts (-$1M)
4. Math (-.8M)

Seems about right, except for 2021 Jarry. If 2020 Jarry shows up, then, I think it is all good.

Well, Zucker COULD earn his cap hit though.

 

[JackFr]

Wait do we really think we're paying Guentzel market value at $6M? The guy is over a point per game in the past three seasons. We got an insane bargain on him.

 

[LOGiK]

Wait do we really think we're paying Guentzel market value at $6M? The guy is over a point per game in the past three seasons. We got an insane bargain on him.

He's always winged for Crosby or Malkin though.... yeah?

I still think he could do it without sid or geno... well... pre-injury version could.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Wait do we really think we're paying Guentzel market value at $6M? The guy is over a point per game in the past three seasons. We got an insane bargain on him.

So your version would increase the value of Guentzel (and Rust) by $2-3M each. Who would you drop? Matheson, Marino, Dumo?

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Wait do we really think we're paying Guentzel market value at $6M? The guy is over a point per game in the past three seasons. We got an insane bargain on him.

I looked at players with comparable production and outside of Aho, most were around the same salary as Jake or ELCs.

So, yes, we do have a bargain relative to if he were to sign a deal as a UFA. But, as far as value is concern, we seem to be paying the right amount.

We are discussing value to the Pens here (on the ice, because if it was overall value to the business, Crosby would be like 15M or more), not market value.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I looked at players with comparable production and outside of Aho, most were around the same salary as Jake or ELCs.

So, yes, we do have a bargain relative to if he were to sign a deal as a UFA. But, as far as value is concern, we seem to be paying the right amount.

We are discussing value to the Pens here (on the ice, because if it was overall value to the business, Crosby would be like 15M or more), not market value.

I guess Landeskog may set a precedent for a pure market contract for Jake.

Though from what I understand, Landy is more of a two-way beast and we all know Jake is one dimensional but better at that dimensino.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I guess Landeskog may set a precedent for a pure market contract for Jake.

Though from what I understand, Landy is more of a two-way beast and we all know Jake is one dimensional but better at that dimensino.

Landeskog is a good comparable considering he played with MacKinnon a lot and Jake plays with Sid or Geno.

However, yeah, the style is very different so I guess Landeskog has more value. I do not watch him enough to comment on his style offensive and say if, like Jake, he can create for himself or not.

 

[Gurglesons]

Jake is easily worth 9 million.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Jake is easily worth 9 million.

If he were to hit the market tomorrow? Sure.

Would you consider him as essential to a team's success as Letang and Crosby?

 

[ChaosAgent]

If he were to hit the market tomorrow? Sure.

Would you consider him as essential to a team's success as Letang and Crosby?

Another question: is he worth more outright than Geno?

 

[Gurglesons]

If he were to hit the market tomorrow? Sure.

Would you consider him as essential to a team's success as Letang and Crosby?

Yes. He's our best forward outside of Sid and Malkin.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yes. He's our best forward outside of Sid and Malkin.

What's your cap-compliant lineup?

And no you're not allowed to have $90M of skaters and Jarry at -$13M to even it out hah.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

My values:

Guentzel ($9.25M) - Crosby ($10M) - Rust ($6M)
Zucker ($4M) - Malkin ($8M) - Kapanen ($5M)
ZAR ($1.5M) - Carter ($5M) - Gaudreau ($.8M)
Zohorna ($.8M) - Blueger ($2.4M) - Angello ($.8M)
Total forwards: $53.55M

Dumoulin ($5M) - Letang ($9.5M)
Matheson ($3.5M)-Marino ($2.5M)
Petts ($2.5M)-Ruhwedel ($.8M)
Total defense: $23.8M

Jarry ($2M)
DeSmith ($2M)
Goalies: $4.0M

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Another question: is he worth more outright than Geno?

Than healthy Geno? No. Than maybe-broken-down-and-old-as-f*** Geno? Maybe.

It will depend on how Geno can rebound.

 

[Pens1566]

Just to start some discussion, is Sid really worth $10M right now?