Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXXIV: Take Ted's Money

[Brian23]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/craig-custance/post?id=3598

Caps in 2-3 years?

I feel like they're in trouble because one of their top players is like 37. It just comes down to they won't be bad enough to really rebuild in the median.

All our stars are in their prime, it's a question of whether they can be the guys vs. whether they can keep going.

 

[usiel]

Green getting traded the centerpiece of it would need to be a legit dman. Doesn't have to be a super offensive one either.

 

[Langway]

So you might be comparing 10 NHL minutes to 14-15 AHL minutes but I am comparing 7-8 NHL minutes to 18+ AHL minutes. Those are two very different arguments IMO.

I was comparing 10 to 14/15 in the NHL and 10 not being enough whereas 14/15 would be (the fourth line vs. third line threshold). We can only speculate as to these figures but IMO he gets more than 7/8 and perhaps much more if he earns it or a trade is made or there's an injury or moves are made to shift a RW over to LW. There are any number of events that can happen leading to him getting more NHL ice-time. He's not Clune. He's not going to be thought of as just what he is and nothing more. He'll play if he's up. There's the secondary question of whether he'd really get that much time in Hershey. Hershey typically isn't one to just hand out developmental ice-time so he'd have to earn it (particulary on the PP). A Ward/Brouwer slot role in Hershey would be good for him but to me whether he pans out of not as a top sixer ultimately has not much to do with whether he gets time in Hershey or not.

There aren't many power forwards that come to mind as having greatly benefited thanks to AHL time. Knuble put in a couple years but he had to bounce around the league a bit before he got the opportunity to play up the lineup (and was never a huge physical force overall). Most either make the jump from junior directly and/or slowly put it all together over time in the league. You mentioned Trotz bringing players along slowly in the Wilson thread but perhaps the closest comparable in his time in Nashville was Hartnell and he was played in the NHL at 18 in a limited role (10:54 average TOI). At minimum I think that's the sort of role he ought to be looking at next year.

Daley + Eakin
Helm + Sproul
Lovejoy + DSP
Kindl + Tatar
Zubrus + Matteau
Braun + Tierney
Petry + Slepyshev

 

[Ajax1995]

The idea that Wilson, or almost anyone for that matter, wouldn't benefit from playing in the minors is absurd simply on its face. If he wouldn't benefit then nobody would as he is the friggin' poster child for needed development outside of simplying being big and strong. There is no such thing as too big and strong to play in the minors. There are so many things he needs to improve on on both sides of the puck.

If you think he is going to get 10 minutes a game playing on the 4th line you are nuts. The math just doesn't add up unless the big guns don't get their time. If he EARNS a spot higher up in the lineup then I am 100% on board with him staying in the NHL.

My money based on Trotz's track record of handling young players is he spends more of this season in Hershey than in DC unless injuries open up a few spots in the lineup long term.

I guess we will see how it plays out...

 

[Ajax1995]

You mentioned Trotz bringing players along slowly in the Wilson thread but perhaps the closest comparable in his time in Nashville was Hartnell and he was played in the NHL at 18 in a limited role (10:54 average TOI). At minimum I think that's the sort of role he ought to be looking at next year.

That Nashville team was awful. They went 6-3-1 over thier last 10 to make their final record look halfway respectable, only 10 points out of a playoff spot, but before that they were right down there with Anaheim and Minnesota at the bottom of the west. When the likes of Cliff Ronning and Scott Walker are your best forwards then sure roll 4 lines and everyone gets ice time. And it is no coincidence that Hartnell saw his most ice time by a decent amount over the last 20 games of the season or so, when they were definitely out of it and it didn't matter anymore.

How you can compare that situation to this one I have no idea. But sure if the Caps are out of it with 20 games left then ride Wilson for all he's worth...

 

[ReggietheSavage15]

Hmmmm...

Analysis: Mike Green appears best fit for Red Wings, who need a right-handed shooting defenseman

Here comes the Mike Green-to-Detroit rumor overdrive

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Consensus on the main board is we're going to finish any where between 6-8 in the Metro and we're a darkhorse to compete for the McDavid sweepstakes. If we had Oates and the same team as last year I might agree but even with Oates, an AHL defense, and an injured Grabovski we were 2 pts out of 8th in the EC. I will say, if there is a year to tank this is it.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Consensus on the main board is we're going to finish any where between 6-8 in the Metro and we're a darkhorse to compete for the McDavid sweepstakes. If we had Oates and the same team as last year I might agree but even with Oates, an AHL defense, and an injured Grabovski we were 2 pts out of 8th in the EC. I will say, if there is a year to tank this is it.

We were bottom 5 in ROW last year. With the roster we have right now, I see us 8-10 in the east.

Trotz has his f'ing work cut out for him.

 

[strungout]

No Oates....same roster - Grabo + two Defensemen and a healthy Laich...Trotz/Korn = easily 5-10 more points and likely more. They should make the playoff rather easily with a competent coaching staff.

I don't see how anyone in the division really improved too much.

 

[txpd]

you don't think that an incremental improvement in their even strength play wouldn't siginificantly change that ROW number? based on what we know its fair to point a finger at oates odd system for much that that even strength difficulty.

and that would be with Erskine out and 3 rookie or near rookie or career ahl'r(strachen) in the lineup on defense each game.

that's what oates turning the goaltending upside down as well.

 

[LaichItOrlovIt]

Consensus on the main board is we're going to finish any where between 6-8 in the Metro and we're a darkhorse to compete for the McDavid sweepstakes. If we had Oates and the same team as last year I might agree but even with Oates, an AHL defense, and an injured Grabovski we were 2 pts out of 8th in the EC. I will say, if there is a year to tank this is it.

Where is this coming from??

Ah nvm, just reread. Carry on....

 

[Roughing]

We were bottom 5 in ROW last year. With the roster we have right now, I see us 8-10 in the east.

Trotz has his f'ing work cut out for him.

The D (players) and G (coaching) should be much better. Any semblance of non-idiocy on offense will make a difference. Lines 1,3,4 will be good to very good. It's the second line that needs to be improved and that's only really about the C. Maybe that happens this season, maybe it's next. I have no doubt this is a playoff team though. The only thing I'd have done much differently (yeah, Orpik is a bad contract but...) was buy out Laich and sign a 2C.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

We were bottom 5 in ROW last year. With the roster we have right now, I see us 8-10 in the east.

Trotz has his f'ing work cut out for him.

Right, which is why I said I could agree if we had Oates and the same team as last year. We also didn't have Grabovski for half the season, and at times our D pairs were Alzner-Carlson and 3-4 guys who started the season in the AHL or ECHL.

Don't get me wrong, we could be bad. We could have no center depth and no secondary scoring. I just don't see us being worse than we were last year.

We were 8-10 in the East last year. Do you see no improvement made with the roster and coaching staff large enough to make us any better?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

The D (players) and G (coaching) should be much better. Any semblance of non-idiocy on offense will make a difference. Lines 1,3,4 will be good to very good. It's the second line that needs to be improved and that's only really about the C. Maybe that happens this season, maybe it's next. I have no doubt this is a playoff team though. The only thing I'd have done much differently (yeah, Orpik is a bad contract but...) was buy out Laich and sign a 2C.

The top 2 forward lines worry me. Backstrom and Ovechkin were not good even strength last year, part of it was systems and part of it was linemates. There's a fix for the systems part I guess, but it's still 2/3 of a top line.

The second line's effectiveness rests on a rookie. And it's a pretty bad second line regardless.

 

[txpd]

Kuznetsov isn't a typical rookie. Right? What makes the potential second line a pretty bad line even with Kuznetsov having a Semin like season? I think that is pretty pessimistic.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Kuznetsov isn't a typical rookie. Right? What makes the potential second line a pretty bad line even with Kuznetsov having a Semin like season? I think that is pretty pessimistic.

It depends what permutation the second line is.

If it's Kuznetsov-Laich-Brouwer that's a rookie, an injured third line left wing, and a third line right wing. That's bad.

 

[Hivemind]

The thought that either Brouwer or Laich are 3rd line talents is downright laughable, and not grounded at all in league-wide realities.

 

[txpd]

It depends what permutation the second line is.

If it's Kuznetsov-Laich-Brouwer that's a rookie, an injured third line left wing, and a third line right wing. That's bad.

that's pretty extreme. Kuznetsov is not a 19 year old rookie. You are ignoring that. Laich has almost always been a third line center and a 2nd line wing. Brouwer hasn't been a 3rd line wing in some time.

Again...its a bad line with Kuznetsov putting up average Semin like numbers, Laich being healthy and Brouwer scoring 20+ again. That's bad?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

The thought that either Brouwer or Laich are 3rd line talents is downright laughable, and not grounded at all in league-wide realities.

Even strength points among forwards leaguewide:

Brouwer
2014 - t208
2013 - t141
2012 - t161

Laich
2014 - NA
2013 - NA
2012 - t129
2011 - t109

Laich was a second liner a few years ago and Brouwer is a tweener.

Again...its a bad line with Kuznetsov putting up average Semin like numbers, Laich being healthy and Brouwer scoring 20+ again. That's bad?

Yes, that seems like something a reasonable person would count on happening. Kuznetsov 40-40 and Laich healthy and back to the way he played 4 years ago at a different position.

 

[Langway]

Brouwer and Laich individually are fine third wheels on a scoring line. Together on a scoring line? Very questionable.

 

[DanTHEMan71]

Laich is the 3rd liner. Brouwer is the 2nd liner.

No way in hell they're putting Laich and Brouwer together on a line. Their stats together are abysmal.

Fehr - Nicky - OV
MoJo - Kuz - Brouwer
Chimer - Laich - Ward

 

[txpd]

Laich is the 3rd liner. Brouwer is the 2nd liner.

No way in hell they're putting Laich and Brouwer together on a line. Their stats together are abysmal.

Fehr - Nicky - OV
MoJo - Kuz - Brouwer
Chimer - Laich - Ward

I would suggest to you that Kuznetsov and Johansson the same line is something they would avoid at all costs. They would much prefer Laich than Johansson for defensive reasons.

If Kuznetsov were used in Johansson's place on the 1st line than a second line of Laich Johansson Brouwer would result. We could call that the whipping boy line.

 

[Liberati0n*]

Laich is was easily a better all-around player than Brouwer. Brouwer has a good shot, but that's really it. I don't understand why a guy that size can't learn to forecheck or win battles.

 

[strungout]

Laich is the 3rd liner. Brouwer is the 2nd liner.

No way in hell they're putting Laich and Brouwer together on a line. Their stats together are abysmal.

Fehr - Nicky - OV
MoJo - Kuz - Brouwer
Chimer - Laich - Ward

There's no way in hell they are putting Fehr on the top line (let alone LW)

 

[Liberati0n*]

There's no way in hell they are putting Fehr on the top line (let alone LW)

He and Ward are the actual best options there. Fehr - Grabovski - Ovechkin looked great last year.