Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXVIII

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Corsi Rel QoC? Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but don't you mean Relative Corsi Quality of Competition? BTN describes that as "Average Relative Corsi of opposing players, weighted by head-to-head ice time," so basically another way to grade competition, not corsi with respect to competition.

Right. I was building on the difficult minutes point.

The only statistic that I'm aware of that tries to marry the two is Corsi HARO QOC (unless I'm completely misunderstanding it). Girardi excels in that metric.

 

[Monty]

Games til TDL:

@NJD
@MON
@BUF
@COL
@DET
DET
NYI
WPG
NJD
@FLA
@BOS
PHI

That could easily be 2-10

A week or so ago I took a look at the Caps schedule for March, and from what I recall virtually the entire middle three weeks of March is a steady diet of Pittsburgh, Boston and Montreal in the East, and the top four or five teams in the West.

Oh, and on a totally unrelated note, I see that the Kings have called up Mr. Nasty from the minors. Must need more snarl and finesse on their back line.

 

[malyk]

March is rough.

3/1 @boston
3/2 philly
3/5 @philly
3/6 @boston
3/8 phoenix
3/10 pittsburgh
3/11 @pittsburgh
3/14 vancouver
3/16 toronto
3/18 @anaheim
3/20 @los angeles
3/22 @san jose
3/25 los angeles
3/29 boston
3/13 @florida

4 sets of back to backs and a west coast road trip. My predictions?

probable loss in boston
loss on the back end of the b2b in philly
tossup in philly
loss on the back end of the b2b in boston
win at home against phoenix
probable loss to pittsburgh
loss on the back end of the b2b in pittsburgh
tossup at home against vancouver
win against toronto
loss in anaheim
loss in los angeles
loss in san jose
win at home against los angeles
tossup against the bruins at home
win against the predators

Yuck!

 

[RandyHolt]

Laich looks like he has lost pucks skills as much as speed. Everything he does just looks so.... labored.

Erat for all his sucktitude at least you see flashes of why he was commanded 4M.

Part of it may be Oates offense, has Laich even had his 25 games to learn yet?

Laich and pretty much no one outside of Ward seems to even go the bakery for an easy tap in. Outside of Ovi crushing PP one timers, our offense has no identity.

I figured our offense under Oates would be very strong. I didn't know our only offense would come from the Brain himself, Blaine the video guy.

Does GM can Oates, or make a roster move, or stand pat and hold on for dear life to the Oly break? I think he stands pat and prays we eek out a few wins before Sochi.

 

[SimplySensational]

His speed is fine, he just sucks. He had 18 points in 19 games in the Swiss league during the lockout.

He got paid 4.5m after a 48 point season.

 

[Roughing]

His speed is fine, he just sucks. He had 18 points in 19 games in the Swiss league during the lockout.

He got paid 4.5m after a 48 point season.

I never liked his game, never thought he was good, and never wanted him extended.

 

[Langway]

@cmasisak22: 1st 14 (!) games for the #Caps post-Sochi are vs teams currently in the top 16 in points percentage. Start winning now or ...

Welp.

 

[SimplySensational]

Roy is a healthy scratch. 31 points in 48 games.

 

[FloridaCap]

Roy is a healthy scratch. 31 points in 48 games.

Derek Roy?

Pass.

 

[SDBondra]

March is rough.

3/18 @anaheim

I'll be at this game. Christmas present. I'm expecting the worst.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Right. I was building on the difficult minutes point.

The only statistic that I'm aware of that tries to marry the two is Corsi HARO QOC (unless I'm completely misunderstanding it). Girardi excels in that metric.

My understanding was that Corsi HARO QOC was also another way to measure competition. From the HA website, "HARO QOC = Offensive Quality of Competition = Average HARO rating of opposition players." And the HARO/D/T thing itself seems pretty flawed, since by the HARD metric Girardi and McDonagh are the two worst defenders on the Rangers.

 

[FloridaCap]

I'll be at this game. Christmas present. I'm expecting the worst.

What a sadistic b*stard he/she is.

 

[Corby78]

My understanding was that Corsi HARO QOC was also another way to measure competition. From the HA website, "HARO QOC = Offensive Quality of Competition = Average HARO rating of opposition players." And the HARO/D/T thing itself seems pretty flawed, since by the HARD metric Girardi and McDonagh are the two worst defenders on the Rangers.

what every happened to just watching players. I thought baseball was getting bad, but the idiotic fantasy stat watcher are taking over.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

The fun never ends. If Carolina, Nashville and Winnipeg win tonight, were are 6th from the bottom.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

My understanding was that Corsi HARO QOC was also another way to measure competition. From the HA website, "HARO QOC = Offensive Quality of Competition = Average HARO rating of opposition players." And the HARO/D/T thing itself seems pretty flawed, since by the HARD metric Girardi and McDonagh are the two worst defenders on the Rangers.

I thought the second factor was weighted based on TOI against, so that the result would weight how their Corsi stacked up based on QoC. I dunno. Better explanations would be helpful. I don't like CF% for defensemen because it doesn't take into account QoC or QoT. I'd think simply scaling CF% based on those factors would be helpful.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

I thought the second factor was weighted based on TOI against, so that the result would weight how their Corsi stacked up based on QoC. I dunno. Better explanations would be helpful. I don't like CF% for defensemen because it doesn't take into account QoC or QoT. I'd think simply scaling CF% based on those factors would be helpful.

It's odd that none of these sites relate possession and QoC. They're already factoring out non-close situations and factoring in zone starts... seems like a logical next step.

 

[malyk]

I'll be at this game. Christmas present. I'm expecting the worst.

I'm going to try to get tickets to the game in san jose. Been the last 4 years and the caps have lost each time...by a lot. But, it's the only chance to see them in person.

 

[artilector]

His speed is fine, he just sucks. He had 18 points in 19 games in the Swiss league during the lockout.

He got paid 4.5m after a 48 point season.

I never liked his game, never thought he was good, and never wanted him extended.

Yeah, speed is not really the problem. He was never a fast guy, anyway. He got overpaid as a complementary top-6 player, but he doesn't seem to have the skills (any more) to even complement -- offensive plays die when he gets the puck. And since he doesn't do anything else better than Caps' "3rd line" players, you have to wonder at this point if he's even a particularly good 3rd liner..

 

[FloridaCap]

I'm going to try to get tickets to the game in san jose. Been the last 4 years and the caps have lost each time...by a lot. But, it's the only chance to see them in person.

They haven't won in San Jose in decades. I forget the actual date, but it's been like 20 years.

 

[Raikkonen]

We like our tank

 

[Ridley Simon]

Maybe replace McPhee with Hunter as the GM?

Yes. I brought this up a few months ago, people freaked out.

Hunter would bring an abject change to the climate of the team, and it wouldn't be his job to coddle them as a coach would need too.

He can hire a coach (perhaps his brother Tim, long time Caps assistant) and off it goes.

I mean honestly, I'd try it, why not? Hunter knows players, and understand running successful organizations, albeit on a much smaller scale.

And it would be sooooo....TED. Wouldn't it?

 

[Langway]

Mike Wise (a.k.a. Mr Gone).

The idea makes some sense but I'd rather wait until the off-season with a new GM making the decision.

Re: the Hunters, Tim would make a better GM than Dale. It would open the whole Ovechkin can of worms back up again, unfortunately, which probably makes it a remote possibility.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm going to try to get tickets to the game in san jose. Been the last 4 years and the caps have lost each time...by a lot. But, it's the only chance to see them in person.

Dedication...I commend you. That first one will feel all the sweeter.

 

[BPMrules]

I honestly thought we'd have seen a personnel move by now, pretty surprised that nothing outside of AHL moves have happened. Would have liked to know if we kicked the tires on Del Zotto at all.
I think it's safe to say that now we are going to stand pat til Sochi, in hopes that this underachieving roster can turn it around. GMGM will then in turn make a panic/"job saving" move at the deadline. None of the players that should be out of town will go, and we will give away something that we shouldn't.
I'd be willing to bet that our chances of making the playoffs come down to the last day of the season. The seats will stay filled til then, and for a week and a half after, if we make the playoffs.
Sadly, after all of this, GMGM will still be the architect of the SS Disappointment aka the Washington Capitals.

 

[Hivemind]

It's odd that none of these sites relate possession and QoC. They're already factoring out non-close situations and factoring in zone starts... seems like a logical next step.

It would help if there was a universally accepted quality of competition metric. Both Corsi QoC and rel Corsi QoC have their flaws. Much less any studies to show how much QoC actually impacts possession numbers (but that would require significant data of players that are unbiased by utilization and deployment).