Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[artilector]

Thus my use of the word "could".

Not good enough, you must apologize to tex for potential heresy.

 

[Revelation]

Just...how. I don't understand how under different coaches, different systems, different years, and we always seem to have an awful offense in the post-season.

I'd imagine playing only the 1st 2 rounds as a top seed vs going deeper in the playoffs and dealing with exhaustion/stronger teams skews the stats in Holtby's favor at least somewhat. Would be interesting to see his career playoff SP vs exclusively 1st and 2nd round games of the other goalies on the top list.

 

[Jags]

Just...how. I don't understand how under different coaches, different systems, different years, and we always seem to have an awful offense in the post-season.

It does make for a crazy stat. How Holtby can go 93.7% with a 1.87 GAA and have a record of 22-24 is nuts. 94.4% and a 1.71 GAA with a 6-7 record in Trotz's first year.

But then you look a little closer... He's played 46 playoff games. 21 against Lundqvist, 7 against Thomas, 6 against Murray in his stellar year last year.

6 each vs. NYI and PHI.

Yes, we've struggled to score in the playoffs. But no, not scoring isn't always about playing ****** offense. Sometimes you play against keepers just as amazing as we rave about Holtby being. And those guys typically get those reps playing behind defenses that don't suck.

I make no excuses for our offensive failures. We should have been better. But that's not the whole story.

 

[txpd]

I'd imagine playing only the 1st 2 rounds as a top seed vs going deeper in the playoffs and dealing with exhaustion/stronger teams skews the stats in Holtby's favor at least somewhat.

you should refresh yourself against who Holtby has played in the playoffs in his career.
His first go around they played as a real 7 seed against a 2 seed with the reigning Vezina winner and the President's Trophy winner. The next playoffs Holtby lost as a 3 seed to the 6 seed Rangers in the first round. The difference in the teams in the standing however were 57pts to 56pts.

the next go around the Caps played the Islanders in the first round who the Caps finished the regular season tied with. They then played the Rangers who had the best record in the league.

Last season, they did have an inferior team, the Flyers to beat in the first round but as the 1 seed they played the 2 seed in the second round.

When you break it down he has played at or above his weight class in every series except the one Flyers series.

 

[Hivemind]

Henrik Lundqvist playoff save percentage against the Washington Capitals: 0.930
Henrik Lundqvist playoff save percentage against the rest of the NHL: 0.917

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[hockeykicker]

Sounds like caps are recalling Paul Carey

 

[Calicaps]

Sounds like caps are recalling Paul Carey

I'm guessing Williams is feeling the effects of that puck to the noggin, but maybe it's 'cause the flu is going around.

 

[hockeykicker]

I'm guessing Williams is feeling the effects of that puck to the noggin, but maybe it's 'cause the flu is going around.

Well actually they gonna need an extra forward for the long road trip too

 

[hb12xchamps]

Sounds like caps are recalling Paul Carey

Makes sense. He's the hot hand after last weekend. Taking a center from the Bears would be devastating with Boyd, Sill, Stephenson, and Gustafsson as the only "true" centers at the moment. Walker and O'Brien had to fill in last weekend.

Also sounds like Gustafsson can't make the trip to St. John's over the weekend due to immigration issues so that puts Hershey even farther in the hole

 

[Calicaps]

Well actually they gonna need an extra forward for the long road trip too

Sure, but they've got 5 days 'til then.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Sure, but they've got 5 days 'til then.

Just saw that. Someone must be banged up. If so, can't they make the recall an emergency recall so it doesn't count toward their roster move limit?

 

[Calicaps]

Just saw that. Someone must be banged up. If so, can't they make the recall an emergency recall so it doesn't count toward their roster move limit?

I can never keep track of that stuff, but I'm sure someone here knows.

 

[hockeykicker]

Sure, but they've got 5 days 'til then.

Seems like it's what Izzy is thinking too

 

[Calicaps]

Seems like it's what Izzy is thinking too

Alrighty then

 

[SpinningEdge]

Burt being back and already playing at a high level is such a bonus to this team...

 

[artilector]

I think the 2nd line needs a stronger wing presence to keep pucks alive when the weave fails. They look good when they have the puck in space, but get muscled off too easily, and are pretty mediocre at getting to loose pucks and causing turnovers. Kuz and Mojo are not great in those components, but Kuz brings the creativity, Mojo brings some speed -- that leaves Williams as the current weakest link. Right now he isn't bringing much to the table... though, hopefully he's saving something for playoffs.

Caps have probably settled into their playoff lines, but... I'd keep Wilson-Williams switch in mind, especially if 2nd & 4th lines both stutter.

 

[RandyHolt]

@Art - good post as usual lately. Willy has shown that he can hold his own (if even just defensively) in his limited bump ups to the top 6.

Barry needs to have a logical top 6 shakeup at the ready for desperation mode. Swapping Kuz and Nick is his go to, but think Willy is 2nd in line. He won't mess with 3 of course. There aren't many other options. Williams on 4 I am sure is frowned upon, but if 2 goes cold, Barry will do something, as we saw (finally) in game 5.

Offseason thoughts.... I am not convinced George takes Grubauer over Willy Eller or Schmidt. Is there any chance we are overvaluing Phillip, as we tend to do to our own? I don't ever hear of him discussed as THE best league wide backup. I just don't see George turning down an every day player for what is a largely untested backup. Wouldn't George be smarter to take a game day regular, and then just trade with us for him on the cheap later if the 2 he took somehow completely suck? He knows Phillip has no future here, unlike the backups on some of the other teams.

I still believe Willy is the one he wants to pluck from us. George likes toughness. Willy entertains more than others through his belligerent play. He is competing with Vegas the city.

 

[Bananas]

I still believe Willy is the one he wants to pluck from us. George likes toughness. Willy entertains more than others through his belligerent play. He is competing with Vegas the city.

I agree and I don't think we should leave Wilson exposed for expansion.

 

[Revelation]

you should refresh yourself against who Holtby has played in the playoffs in his career.
His first go around they played as a real 7 seed against a 2 seed with the reigning Vezina winner and the President's Trophy winner. The next playoffs Holtby lost as a 3 seed to the 6 seed Rangers in the first round. The difference in the teams in the standing however were 57pts to 56pts.

the next go around the Caps played the Islanders in the first round who the Caps finished the regular season tied with. They then played the Rangers who had the best record in the league.

Last season, they did have an inferior team, the Flyers to beat in the first round but as the 1 seed they played the 2 seed in the second round.

When you break it down he has played at or above his weight class in every series except the one Flyers series.

Except you're taking those teams as a whole rather than looking at their offensive capabilities. Islanders, Rangers and Flyers were all crap offensively compared to us. He stood on his head against the Bruins but that was also a #hunterhockey year

Pens were the only good scary offensive team he faced, maybe the Bruins but they got Hunterneutered.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think the 2nd line needs a stronger wing presence to keep pucks alive when the weave fails. They look good when they have the puck in space, but get muscled off too easily, and are pretty mediocre at getting to loose pucks and causing turnovers. Kuz and Mojo are not great in those components, but Kuz brings the creativity, Mojo brings some speed -- that leaves Williams as the current weakest link. Right now he isn't bringing much to the table... though, hopefully he's saving something for playoffs.

Caps have probably settled into their playoff lines, but... I'd keep Wilson-Williams switch in mind, especially if 2nd & 4th lines both stutter.

We must be on mind meld. In the Post Game jackets thread I mentioned Wilson as 2RW. I would just slide Williams and Connolly down though.

90-92-43
65-20-14
26-83-10

I thought Williams board work would compliment Eller's, and Burakovsky could be the "shooter" on that line. Likewise, Connolly could become the same on line 4. Wilson on 2 creates traffic and space for Kuz, and has enough ability it finish if give the chance.

 

[Ridley Simon]

@Art - good post as usual lately. Willy has shown that he can hold his own (if even just defensively) in his limited bump ups to the top 6.

Barry needs to have a logical top 6 shakeup at the ready for desperation mode. Swapping Kuz and Nick is his go to, but think Willy is 2nd in line. He won't mess with 3 of course. There aren't many other options. Williams on 4 I am sure is frowned upon, but if 2 goes cold, Barry will do something, as we saw (finally) in game 5.

Offseason thoughts.... I am not convinced George takes Grubauer over Willy Eller or Schmidt. Is there any chance we are overvaluing Phillip, as we tend to do to our own? I don't ever hear of him discussed as THE best league wide backup. I just don't see George turning down an every day player for what is a largely untested backup. Wouldn't George be smarter to take a game day regular, and then just trade with us for him on the cheap later if the 2 he took somehow completely suck? He knows Phillip has no future here, unlike the backups on some of the other teams.

I still believe Willy is the one he wants to pluck from us. George likes toughness. Willy entertains more than others through his belligerent play. He is competing with Vegas the city.

You have to protect Eller if you want to be viable next season. He's the defacto 3C and can play 2C if need be (injury). Wilson is a 3W that can play 2W if need be. You keep the C over the W, every single time.

If you want reasons as to "well, why?", just cast a wary eye to Western PA and notice that the only 2x they won recently was when they had a triumphant 3C (Staal, Bonino). Same can be said for almost all the Cup teams since the lockout. Massive strength down the middle. 19-92-20. That's the backbone of this team, as well is should be. Wingers are easy, and we already have our $$$ there in Ovy (and maybe Oshie). Everyone else is filler in some manner (Bura, MaJo, Vrana, Connolly etc).

Eller over Wilson 100x out of 100x. And hell, George may not even take him (43). If he does, the team will be fine as Schmidt and Grubuaer are still here, as are the aforementioned wingers. Trade bait.

 

[Revelation]

>Be hotshot Vegas owner who is like mixture of Pitbull and Mike Comrie
>Get NHL expansion team
>Hire GMGM to run expansion draft because I never bothered to look at his track record with getting players since I was too busy takin calls on Evander Kane's moneyphone if u kno wat I mean
>GMGM who is this Lars Eller you just drafted from your old team
>Our new 3rd line center, big physical fast guy!
>Oh cool, how much does he make
>4.75 million but only a 3.5 million cap hit
>Uh... GMGMbrah we can't just be bleeding money before we get a fanbase. We gotta do inflated cap hits if anything. Is he like an amazing two way beast like Bergeron?
>Well he's been pretty good for my old team
>So you mean he scored a bunch?
>Almost 25 points!
>Uh that's like good 4th line production right? Whatever... he's been a defensive dynamo then?
>Well kinda, he just gets the puck and protects it well and runs around with it and PKs and wins his fair share of faceoffs
>So he's like a better Daniel Winnik who caught fire in a complimentary system on the best roster in the NHL?
>Pretty much yea
>but he makes 4x as much as other dudes with more potential you could have poached?
>uh... sure
>GMGMbrah ur fired... unless you get Kaner from Buffalo so I have my moneyphone operator back... actually get me both Kaners and a barrel of cotton candy schnapps... then do whatever the hell u want idc

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That was painful....eyes bleeding.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You have to protect Eller if you want to be viable next season. He's the defacto 3C and can play 2C if need be (injury). Wilson is a 3W that can play 2W if need be. You keep the C over the W, every single time.

If you want reasons as to "well, why?", just cast a wary eye to Western PA and notice that the only 2x they won recently was when they had a triumphant 3C (Staal, Bonino). Same can be said for almost all the Cup teams since the lockout. Massive strength down the middle. 19-92-20. That's the backbone of this team, as well is should be. Wingers are easy, and we already have our $$$ there in Ovy (and maybe Oshie). Everyone else is filler in some manner (Bura, MaJo, Vrana, Connolly etc).

Eller over Wilson 100x out of 100x. And hell, George may not even take him (43). If he does, the team will be fine as Schmidt and Grubuaer are still here, as are the aforementioned wingers. Trade bait.

I don't think 1 more year of Eller is as clear cut of a decision as you're saying over a cost controlled Wilson. All Wilson has to do is have a decent playoff run and all bets are off.

I myself love the C depth, and if I'm GM I'm already trying to work out an extension with Eller and if he's asking for $5 or more per after next year it's probably goodbye anyway.