Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVI (Winning...MEH)

[HecticGlow]

If I'm reading the stats right, Taylor Chorney is the only skater not yet to record a point, and that's because he hasn't played. Eight games in that's impressive - hopefully we don't have another Brooks Laich stinking the place up for several months.

Secondly, only five players have recorded power play points, and Orlov is the only one from PP2 to have registered one (I assume while playing on PP1?). PP2 felt like it was coming together a little bit more at the start of the season, so I'm surprised they've been completely unsuccessful so far. Johansson and Backstrom lead the team in PPP - always worth remembering how pivotal both those guys are to the power play, and how much it struggles when either of them are out.

Finally, the only thing I don't like about the lines right now is it feels like we don't have a strong first line - maybe we do on paper, but in practice it's not quite clicking. Line 3 feels like a strong second line, and line four feels a decent third line. What's perplexing me is Ovi has been moving - there's no indication he's off at all, and yet it seems hard this year so far to find him linemates he's clicking with at ES. Then again many of us felt the top line wasn't clicking for much of last season and the team was still winning games - and then 8-19-77 dominated in the playoffs, so maybe it's a nice problem to have.

 

[HecticGlow]

P.S. I'm sorry but we need to find a way to protect Beagle in the expansion draft. He is so important to the Caps' success, and if I were Las Vegas and seeing the likely strong goaltending options out there, and weighing up whether Orlov would be a help or a hinderance, a guy like Jay Beagle would have great value when it comes to PK, defensive play, faceoffs, work ethic and positional versatility.

 

[txpd]

PP2 doesn't get a lot of ice. I am not surprised they haven't scored.
An expansion team wont be interested in a 30 year old role player like Beagle when they can take Schmidt or Orlov or Grubauer. A player that can be a primary ice time eater or starting goaltender.

Struck by...
Orlov 0g 2a 2pts -1 19:44
Orpik 0g 2a 2pts +6 16:55

Struck by Niskanen's 5 assists and Carlson's 1pt

 

[HecticGlow]

PP2 doesn't get a lot of ice. I am not surprised they haven't scored.
An expansion team wont be interested in a 30 year old role player like Beagle when they can take Schmidt or Orlov or Grubauer. A player that can be a primary ice time eater or starting goaltender.

Struck by...
Orlov 0g 2a 2pts -1 19:44
Orpik 0g 2a 2pts +6 16:55

Struck by Niskanen's 5 assists and Carlson's 1pt

But do you want 30 of those guys? There is something to be said for veteran presence, and teams that want to compete need guys like Beagle.

 

[Raikkonen]

PP2 doesn't get a lot of ice. I am not surprised they haven't scored.
An expansion team wont be interested in a 30 year old role player like Beagle when they can take Schmidt or Orlov or Grubauer. A player that can be a primary ice time eater or starting goaltender.

Struck by...
Orlov 0g 2a 2pts -1 19:44
Orpik 0g 2a 2pts +6 16:55

Struck by Niskanen's 5 assists and Carlson's 1pt

Small sample size warning.

Anyway, visually Orpik is sound so far, and it was like that from the get go. Small sample size too

Also, Beagle is not that young. Nobody knows if he will decline next year with his style of play. I doubt he's claimed with not much term left on a contract.

 

[txpd]

But do you want 30 of those guys? There is something to be said for veteran presence, and teams that want to compete need guys like Beagle.

I think its valuable to consider that there will be NHL teams that won't have two quality young defensemen to choose from. They may not have any quality top half of the lineup to choose from. In those cases, players like Beagle would get chosen.

So, my view is that they will have selected role player penalty killers from teams with thinner choices on the table.

 

[Ridley Simon]

P.S. I'm sorry but we need to find a way to protect Beagle in the expansion draft. He is so important to the Caps' success, and if I were Las Vegas and seeing the likely strong goaltending options out there, and weighing up whether Orlov would be a help or a hinderance, a guy like Jay Beagle would have great value when it comes to PK, defensive play, faceoffs, work ethic and positional versatility.

Ahhhhh, the Beagle love. I share the warmth.

Beagle for 2 RW

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Looking at which forwards we would protect, there are 4 guaranteed: 8, 19, 65 and 92.
Then, it's probably going to be 43, 77 and 90.

Can't see Beagle being protected in any case.

 

[um]

I don't think Oshie will be staying, he can get Okposo/Eriksson/Lucic/Backes/Ladd type money on the open market. Either way it would probably come down to leaving Orlov or Johansson unprotected.

 

[txpd]

I don't think Oshie will be staying, he can get Okposo/Eriksson/Lucic/Backes/Ladd type money on the open market. Either way it would probably come down to leaving Orlov or Johansson unprotected.

caps can either protect 7f and 3d or 4 and 4. Protecting Orlov would cost them protecting two forwards. Not one.

 

[artilector]

Very hard to opine about protection decisions before we see how the players do in the playoffs. Overall, by default I'd lean towards keeping the young guys with the uncertainty following the current window (e.g. Mojo over Oshie). If they can make a really deep run, then maybe you try to keep things more intact based more on current merit than on age.

 

[Raikkonen]

Not Much Besides Oshie UFA List

 

[txpd]

Very hard to opine about protection decisions before we see how the players do in the playoffs. Overall, by default I'd lean towards keeping the young guys with the uncertainty following the current window (e.g. Mojo over Oshie). If they can make a really deep run, then maybe you try to keep things more intact based more on current merit than on age.

not sure that is true. Oshie is a ufa. If he is not extended by the end of the regular season, he is leaving. If he signs a multi year extention there is no chance that he does that without guarantee that he will not end up stuck on an expansion team for the lenth of that contract.

 

[artilector]

not sure that is true. Oshie is a ufa. If he is not extended by the end of the regular season, he is leaving. If he signs a multi year extention there is no chance that he does that without guarantee that he will not end up stuck on an expansion team for the lenth of that contract.

What exactly are you disagreeing with?

I'm saying the way things have been going (Trotz' Caps being solid but not quite playoff-elite), I'd (very generally) lean towards not giving Oshie (as an example) that multi-year extension/draft protection if it means losing Mojo/Orlov (younger guys with at least more untapped potential).

And I really like Oshie...

 

[txpd]

What exactly are you disagreeing with?

I'm saying the way things have been going (Trotz' Caps being solid but not quite playoff-elite), I'd (very generally) lean towards not giving Oshie (as an example) that multi-year extension/draft protection if it means losing Mojo/Orlov (younger guys with at least more untapped potential).

And I really like Oshie...

They are going to lose a good player. they cant protect Orlov unless they are willing to shrink their forwards protected from 7 to 4. So Johansson or Orlov are exposed regardless

 

[ovikovy817]

We know all how "emotional" can be GMGM, so I hope he'll remember the good time he had in DC and hope he won't "hurt" the Caps during the expansion draft.

 

[um]

caps can either protect 7f and 3d or 4 and 4. Protecting Orlov would cost them protecting two forwards. Not one.

Yes but Vegas can only claim one, maybe they take Wilson over Johansson, but I doubt it.

I assume we agree the four projected forwards would be Ovie, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Burakovsky.

 

[bur and 666 others]

We know all how "emotional" can be GMGM, so I hope he'll remember the good time he had in DC and hope he won't "hurt" the Caps during the expansion draft.

he can take Forsberg

 

[trick9]

I wonder if Orlov would even sign a contract with team that has GMGM at charge. He's already requested a trade to get away from him once.

I wouldn't be shocked if that was the case. McPhee treated Orlov like trash for that contract loophole.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What exactly are you disagreeing with?

I'm saying the way things have been going (Trotz' Caps being solid but not quite playoff-elite), I'd (very generally) lean towards not giving Oshie (as an example) that multi-year extension/draft protection if it means losing Mojo/Orlov (younger guys with at least more untapped potential).

And I really like Oshie...

I think he's suggesting the Organizational choice will be made about Oshie before the playoffs, that if he's not resigned before the season ends, he's likely gone via UFA.

I tend to agree. I can't see Oshie playing out the season only to NOT test the market.

It's all going to depend on how much Oshie and wife want to stay. Maybe we get lucky with 92 sucking for so long, that he's not going to cost as much and we can spread that $ around a little.

I've gone on record as saying I want 77 extended, but not at all costs. This Caps team minus Oshie is a team moving backwards. UFA castoffs aren't filling his shoes and so far I see nothing to believe anyone from the farm will either.

 

[Langway]

I think he's suggesting the Organizational choice will be made about Oshie before the playoffs, that if he's not resigned before the season ends, he's likely gone via UFA.

I tend to agree. I can't see Oshie playing out the season only to NOT test the market.

On that note:

19. Finally, the Capitals GM has said that new contracts for Karl Alzner and Evgeny Kuznetsov mean this could be the final run for this particular group. “There are a lot of moving parts. We’re not sure what the dynamic is going to be. There are so many questions…how we do is going to answer a lot of them.†A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about Kuznetsov’s painful summer, mentally trying to get over a disappointing performance both personally and for the team. “He got down on himself. His body language…there’s a hang-dog look to him when it’s not going his way. The coaches are trying to work him through it, don't put your head down. Get more competitive as opposed to getting negative on himself.â€

I can't see Oshie being a higher priority than those two and it sure sounds like MacLellan is content to wait and see how it all plays out.

 

[um]

If we could pay someone to take on Orpik at the end of the year... that would be nice. It would be only 2 years left, worse contracts have been taken on.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

On that note:

I can't see Oshie being a higher priority than those two and it sure sounds like MacLellan is content to wait and see how it all plays out.

Higher priority, no you're right, but if 92 keeps crapping the bed....who knows?

This team doesn't need a $7 mil a year "beaten dog" for a future 1C. Kid better figure it out and fast. There's no bigger "moving part" than his frail mental state.

 

[HecticGlow]

I think he's suggesting the Organizational choice will be made about Oshie before the playoffs, that if he's not resigned before the season ends, he's likely gone via UFA.

I tend to agree. I can't see Oshie playing out the season only to NOT test the market.

It's all going to depend on how much Oshie and wife want to stay. Maybe we get lucky with 92 sucking for so long, that he's not going to cost as much and we can spread that $ around a little.

I've gone on record as saying I want 77 extended, but not at all costs. This Caps team minus Oshie is a team moving backwards. UFA castoffs aren't filling his shoes and so far I see nothing to believe anyone from the farm will either.

Suspect things will work themselves out. Lose Williams and most of his cap hit goes to Oshie's rise; Orlov's goes to Alzner; Winnik's pays, in part at least, for Kuzy's. That means 10 of your 12 forwards returning, five of your six Ds. The question is, assuming Winnik and Williams simply walk at the end of their contracts, how do you lose Orlov? It would be crazy to keep Orlov over Alzner, and surely Orlov's trade value is lower than, say, Mojo's. But if you trade Orlov, you could lose Schmidt in the expansion draft - Bowey can only replace one, so unless Lewington or Djoos make huge strides in a year we'd have to acquire someone new, which would be hard while paying Kuzy et al.

One guy it'll be hard to lose right now is Grubi - there's no one within the system to replace him at present, and a decent UFA backup would likely cost us more than he does. Honestly I don't see a scenario in which Alzner stays and Orlov is protected.

 

[txpd]

On that note:

I can't see Oshie being a higher priority than those two and it sure sounds like MacLellan is content to wait and see how it all plays out.

I think that depends on the definition of wait and see how it plays out. I don't expect MacLellan to wait til after the season to resign either Alzner or Kuznetsov. If he does, then, yea, the UFA's are gone. All of them.

If 27 and 92 are extended after the new year, then I would expect that one of Oshie and Williams will stay. This, however, is a main reason that Wilson is not going to be spending most of this season skating the 4th line.