g00n
Retired Global Mod
- Nov 22, 2007
- 30,619
- 14,702
I don't know why I do this stuff at 430am instead of going to bed like a normal person, but what's done is done. Hopefully somebody finds it insightful/useful in gauging possible value.
Looking at the players similar to Alzner, I've found 6 player comparables and 1 team comparable. He also has a peer comparable, as Dmitry Kulikov will also be hitting the market this year. However, Kulikov will be entering his age 27 season at the beginning of his next contract. After signing his new deal, Karl will be entering his age 29 season.
The team comparable is obviously Orpik, GMBM gave him 5-27.5, a 5.5 cap hit and 8% of the cap for his age 34-38 seasons. His agent can point at that deal and say that's the minimum we want.
The player comparables are all similar aged defensemen who signed UFA deals. They are Marc Staal, Andrej Sekera, Marc Methot, Jason Demers, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Marc-Eduard Vlasic. I only chose these players by looking at them, it might be interesting to see how they compare to Alzner in twabby's stats.
Marc Staal signed a 6yr-34.2mil deal, 5.7 cap and 7.8% of cap, covering his age 28-33 seasons. He has a full NMC for all 6 years.
Andrej Sekera signed a 6yr-33mil deal, 5.5 cap and 7.5% of cap, covering his age 29-34 seasons. He has a full NMC for the first 4 years.
Marc Methot signed a 4yr-19.6mil deal, 4.9 cap and 6.5% of cap, covering his age 30-33 seasons. He has a 10 team NTC for all 4 years.
Jason Demers signed a 5yr-22.5mil deal, 4.5 cap and 6.1% of cap, covering his age 28-32 seasons. He has an 8 team NTC for 4 years.
Niklas Hjalmarsson signed a 5yr-20.5mil deal, 4.1 cap and 6.4% of cap, covering his age 27-31 seasons. He has a NMC for all 5 years.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic signed a 5yr-21.25mil deal, 4.25 cap and 7.1% of cap, covering his age 26-30 seasons. He has a NTC for all 5 years.
If we assume the cap will be flat and remain at 73 million, 8% of that is 5.84, 7.5% is 5.475, 7% is 5.11, 6.5% is 4.745, and 6% is 4.38. Right now, the Caps are on the hook for ~51mil of a 73mil cap for next year for 7 forwards, 4 defense and 1 goalie, so they have basically 70% of the cap spoken for, and 30% available.
Assuming all the math checks out, finally a post with the right idea. This is how it's actually done. Comparables and space.
A deal with the Caps will probably be close to $5M based on the sniff test as well as the above. Too much beyond that will be creeping toward overpayment and will largely depend on the market. All it takes is one GM with a huge gap at the top of his defensive depth chart to blow the whole curve.