A SERIOUS DISCUSSION - Jordan Staal

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Only a few forwards left, excluding prospects who are a long shot to make the squad.

Jordan Staal
Age: 25
6'4", 220lbs
Career: 561 GP, 145G, 174A, 0.569 PPG, +37, 12.9% SH%
Last year: 82GP, 15G, 25A, 0.488 PPG, +2, 9.1% SH%, +12 Corsi Rel

Unlike two seasons ago, Jordan's defensive and possession game returned this season and he played very well. He had the lowest GA20 among forwards, was near the top for +/-, and only Semin had better possession numbers. Where he struggled was on the scoreboard like so many other Canes forwards. While he's shown at times he can score at a pace of 50+ points, he has never quite achieved 50 at the NHL level.

What are your expectations for Jordan this year? Will he be stuck with offensive black holes like Dwyer again? or will he have guys like Semin and Tlusty who can play a strong 2 way game, and still score? Is he reached his scoring peak and is really only a 40ish point player? Or will he finally put it together to eclipse the 50 point plateau?

DISCUSS!

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[A Star is Burns]

Of course it depends a lot on who he's put out with and what situations, but I expect right around 50 points or so.

 

[TheOllieC]

He can undoubtedly put up 50pts, depends who he's playing with. Peters said he'd spend time with Eric and if he gets to play with Semin at all we know how well those two work together.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

80ish points and +200

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Prior to this past season, his previous 3 had a combined PPG of 0.73. Granted, 2 of those seasons were with the Pens, but he had:

.71 PPG, .81 PPG, .65 PPG.

I have to assume he'll bounce back a bit as everyone was off last year and be closer to his norm. If he plays a full 82, I think he'll be close to 50 but I don't expect much more than that. I probably should have set the poll up differently so we didn't have to choose 40-50 or 50-60.

 

[Novacane]

A disappointing 40 point season.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

you are as depressing as the weather these days. Or maybe, just more realistic.

I think he'll be more than 40, but not much, if any over 50.

 

[Novacane]

you are as depressing as the weather these days. Or maybe, just more realistic.

I think he'll be more than 40, but not much, if any over 50.

I'm not getting my hopes up about anyone this year, outside of Eric. Been down that road too many times already.

.....

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm not getting my hopes up about anyone this year, outside of Eric. Been down that road too many times already.

.....

I know what you mean. I have had low hopes (in terms of the team) before the season for the past couple of years and do so again this year.

 

[What the Faulk]

It's ridiculous how much of an anchor Dwyer was to Staal this year.

500 minutes with Dwyer: 0.367 GF/20, 47.4 GF%, 50.4 CF%
670 minutes w/o Dwyer: 0.688 GF/20, 56.1 GF%, 56.4 CF%

Even Gerbe brought Staal's numbers down somewhat, though not nearly as significantly. But when with Semin the two were near unstoppable:

351 minutes with Semin: 0.854 GF/20, 71.4 GF%, 57 CF%.

If Jordan is paired with adequate linemates, there's no reason he shouldn't be able to hit 50 points again.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Which is why the whole "Semin is on the block rumor" makes absolutely zero sense. Without Semin, the line-up has Dwyer, Gerbe, Nash, AND 1 more to be determined player required for the top 9 and that's when everyone is healthy.

 

[bleedgreen]

I put 40-50. I get that Dwyer is an anchor offensively, I just have been very disappointed with the offensive effort put out. It isn't the numbers, it's the lack of attack in his game. Drive wide and just keep going, rinse and repeat. Great for possession stats, but those stats don't win the games in this case. Guy has to take the puck to the net more, shoot more, beat guys with the puck occasionally instead of just turning to the corner and sitting on it. Like semin, we pay this guy for offense as much as we do for the defensive responsibility. Not enough young clutch jstaal going on. Lots of lumbering and grinding without hinting at being a threat offensively nearly enough. He had moments where he looked like he was gonna burst out, never really developed. We pay him to be the dangerous second center, not the responsible third line guy he was type cast as.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I put 40-50. I get that Dwyer is an anchor offensively, I just have been very disappointed with the offensive effort put out. It isn't the numbers, it's the lack of attack in his game. Drive wide and just keep going, rinse and repeat. Great for possession stats, but those stats don't win the games in this case. Guy has to take the puck to the net more, shoot more, beat guys with the puck occasionally instead of just turning to the corner and sitting on it. Like semin, we pay this guy for offense as much as we do for the defensive responsibility. Not enough young clutch jstaal going on. Lots of lumbering and grinding without hinting at being a threat offensively nearly enough. He had moments where he looked like he was gonna burst out, never really developed. We pay him to be the dangerous second center, not the responsible third line guy he was type cast as.

But hasn't he been put into that role out of necessity? I still don't think Jordan is some huge offensive threat waiting to be unleashed, I never have, I think he's a dominant two way player when he's in a situation that warrants it (behind Crosby and Malkin). I think there's more upside to his offense than he's shown (not to the extent it was expected), but he's hamstrung by having to go up against top lines.

 

[bleedgreen]

He is put in that role. I know this and am acknowledging it, and that he's played with defensive guys. He can attack more and still do that role. He doesn't seem to play offense when he's playing offense. He did that in Pitts when I watched him there, and he played the same defensive role there. He attacked, he made an effort to be dangerous. With us he takes the zone like he has no chance of creating. He's as big an offensive threat as he wants to be. That's my criticism. I think he's accepting the defensive role too deeply, or just has lost his confidence and has forgotten how to create it. He can do more, it's not all on the linemates and role. He was more dangerous than this when he was in Pitts.

 

[RodTheBawd]

He is put in that role. I know this and am acknowledging it, and that he's played with defensive guys. He can attack more and still do that role. He doesn't seem to play offense when he's playing offense. He did that in Pitts when I watched him there, and he played the same defensive role there. He attacked, he made an effort to be dangerous. With us he takes the zone like he has no chance of creating. He's as big an offensive threat as he wants to be. That's my criticism. I think he's accepting the defensive role too deeply, or just has lost his confidence and has forgotten how to create it. He can do more, it's not all on the linemates and role. He was more dangerous than this when he was in Pitts.

I wasn't intending to disagree with you if that's how it came across. Just that many expected him to come here and put up 60+ points. He's capable of more offense, but not to that extent.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I wasn't intending to disagree with you if that's how it came across. Just that many expected him to come here and put up 60+ points. He's capable of more offense, but not to that extent.

I think those expectations came because of his last couple of years in Pittsburgh where over a stretch, he did score at that pace, and the expectations weren't totally unwarranted:

10/11: 30 points in 42 games --> 59 point pace for 82 games
11/12: 50 points in 62 games --> 66 point pace for 82 games

4 of his 6 season in Pittsburgh, he scored 20+ goals (and one season he didn't, he scored 11 in 42 games which is a 20+ pace). We as Canes fans have every reason to expect 20+ goals and ~50+ points from him. If he does that as a defensive minded 2C, I'll be fairly happy. But if he's down in the low 40s range again, I'll be disappointed with his production.

 

[Unsustainable]

If we could pair him with Semin, 60 - 70 pts, if not, 40 - 50.

I'd like to see a monster line Eric / Jordan / Semin, them Tlusty / Skinner / Lindy

High risk / reward maybe.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

I'd rather have Skinner stay as the lw and have Jiri or Elias as the center in that case I think.

 

[Unsustainable]

I'd rather have Skinner stay as the lw and have Jiri or Elias as the center in that case I think.

Skinner / Lindholm / Tlusty

I don't know how Jiri would do on the right side.

We really do need another Top 6 RW to let Lindholm develop at Center.

 

[mmssd]

We really do need another Top 6 RW to let Lindholm develop at Center.

I know. I was really hoping Francis was gonna try to get another top 6 winger. That's what's disappointed me about this offseason. As for Jordan, he's not gonna put up jack stuck with 3rd/4th line guys. Give him some better wingers and I think he'll hit 50+ points.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I know. I was really hoping Francis was gonna try to get another top 6 winger. That's what's disappointed me about this offseason. .

I think 3 factors came into play that prevented that:

1) I doubt Francis had the green light (monetarily) to go after top six.
2) Even if he did, there weren't a lot of really viable options in terms of wingers. Vanek (who everyone knew was going to Minn.), Moulson, Vrbata, Hemsky, Iginla, Cammaleri were about the only ones..and except for Hemsky, all of them signed for a LOT of money and would have likely needed to be paid much more to come here.
3) I doubt very many of those "top six" wingers wanted to even come here. It's not like the Canes are a high profile signing hotbed.

 

[mmssd]

I think 3 factors came into play that prevented that:

1) I doubt Francis had the green light (monetarily) to go after top six.
2) Even if he did, there weren't a lot of really viable options in terms of wingers. Vanek (who everyone knew was going to Minn.), Moulson, Vrbata, Hemsky, Iginla, Cammaleri were about the only ones..and except for Hemsky, all of them signed for a LOT of money and would have likely needed to be paid much more to come here.
3) I doubt very many of those "top six" wingers wanted to even come here. It's not like the Canes are a high profile signing hotbed.

I was thinking more along the lines of a trade for a winger. No one amazing or anything, hell a good 3rd line winger/fringe 2nd line winger and I would have been happy.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I was thinking more along the lines of a trade for a winger. No one amazing or anything, hell a good 3rd line winger/fringe 2nd line winger and I would have been happy.

But who do we have as trade bait? We can't afford to lose any "good" defensemen, any top 6 forwards, or any high draft picks. Other than that, we have guys (Harrison, Liles, Ward, etc...) that nobody wants.

 

[bleedgreen]

I'm curious how much they are counting on boychuk or possibly McGinn/Terry to grab a spot? They let lokti go to free up a spot for likely one of them. If peters wants Lindy at center than whoever this mystery man is would need to be solid this year. Seems like they are actually putting faith in one of guys already? It's the cheap route as well, likely the biggest motivation.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm curious how much they are counting on boychuk or possibly McGinn/Terry to grab a spot? They let lokti go to free up a spot for likely one of them. If peters wants Lindy at center than whoever this mystery man is would need to be solid this year. Seems like they are actually putting faith in one of guys already? It's the cheap route as well, likely the biggest motivation.

I think they are Bleed, with a fallback of LaRose or Dwyer if they can't cut it. If they work out, it's great, but if they don't, we have the same dilemma as we've had for a few seasons.