A SERIOUS DEBATE: 2017/18 Expectations

[Mathios]

You guys sure wander off-topic real quick...anyway

Not only this, but the group of prospects that we are usually pencilling into the lineup at this time of year will now get to slot in when injuries occur. That depth makes us more injury-proof than we've been in awhile. Two years ago, after the cup of tea he had last year, Wallmark would've been pencilled into this lineup, and would've likely played a lot. Now, the depth is there so that when someone goes down, he steps in. Etc.

This. This is something i believe will help us tremendously. When Jordan got injured a few years ago and Rask came to the NHL, i was pretty bummed out. Not only because i thought Jordan was a solid center and we needed him but because i had absolutely no idea who was going to replace him. I hated Riley Nash and the idea of him consistently getting 2nd line minutes gave me suicidal thoughts. As we know, Rask stepped up and that's awesome, but for the first time in a few years i feel we have some decent depth and won't have to hope some ahler surprisingly steps up. With Zykov, Saarela, Wallmark, Poturalski i think we have some pretty good plan B's.

 

[Roboturner913]

Big picture, a playoff spot. If it's the last spot, that's fine, just get in. In this division, I'm not expecting anything miraculous.

Individually speaking, I expect Skinner to keep looking like a big-time leader and dominating the flow of play. I expect small steps forward from Aho and TT, these are guys that should/can be 50 point performers. Staal and Lindy to form a solid shutdown pair and be mainstays on the PK while each scoring 40-50 points. Want to see Rask put together a complete season with no extended slumps, and I think JWilly is the perfect guy to play on his wing for that reason, both as a mentor and a solid linemate. Ryan and Stempniak with the journeyman 30-40 points. I think Kruger and Nordstrom can form the Staal-Lindy lite combo with McGinn shaping up as a Chad LaRose type who can play an energy game and give you 12-15 goals.

Defense, I expect Slavin to take a full step forward in terms of being a big-time leader, being as they've kinda made him the face of the team this offseason. I think Justin is due to bounce back in a big way and be more of the defensive player we saw in the 2nd half of the season after he settled down some. Pesce is pretty much what he is by now IMO, maybe with a little more offense to give but I think he can carry that second pair well with Hanifin if that's how they go. Not sure what to expect from Hanifin at all, he's a total wildcard to me. I expect Fleury to be dependable and very unspectacular which is all he needs to be, and pretty much the same from TVR.

If Darling is league average I think we're a playoff team, so a lot of the pressure rests on his shoulders and that's no secret. How he comes of the gate responding to that pressure sets the tone for the season IMO. Cam isn't starter quality anymore but he should be one of the better insurance policies in the league and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he steals a few games for us.

Overall I think something in the neighborhood of 40-42 wins gets it done, with the likelihood of a high number of loser points typical of a defensive team that plays it close to the vest.

 

[Novacane]

I'll wait until Chuck buys the team before I get excited about that

As for this season, I expect to be more competitive every game but I'm not sure it'll translate directly into enough wins to make the playoffs. It's still a very young team and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Slavin and Pesce aren't the world beaters they were last year. Darling is a concern for me simply because I haven't seen him play a full season as starter and our offense needs another threat to take some pressure off Skinner in close games. We have a lot of good support players which is nice though. I don't think playoffs are out of the question but I think they're still a year away

 

[A Star is Burns]

I pretty much expect us to be in the mid 90's for points. As we saw last season, with a tough division, and a tough conference, that may not be enough. But I'd be pretty satisfied if we ended up with a total around there.

As for the teams in our division, the Pens are the only lock to me, though the prospects for Columbus and Washington are strong.

The Capitals lost a lot of depth up front and on the back end. I'm not sure they have prospects that they can really count on to fill the holes at this point either. They have a coach in the last year of his contract. They have a superstar that might be in decline. And maybe most importantly, they know that the last two years were their all in years. That could have an impact on them mentally. Of course, I wouldn't expect all that to cause them to drop so much they miss the playoffs, but I wouldn't be shocked.

For Columbus, they lost some depth up front and may not get as many career years. While Bob is an X factor, he could also come back to earth and play like he did the previous two season, or have injury issues like he has a few times before. And just like we were worried before last year about our young dmen keeping up their strong play and/or progressing, you never know if a young guy like Werenski doesn't have quite as good of a year. Not to mention that they won't likely have a 16 game win streak again. And you can never discount the Torts factor. I'd probably expect them to be ahead of us and make the playoffs, but you never know.

I feel like the Rangers and Isles both made a good move or two, and they both made some questionable moves. They'll probably be in a similar tier to us.

On paper, I do think we'll be ahead of Philly and New Jersey this year.

So while we have an outside shot at maybe the 3 spot, we're obviously probably much more likely to be in the mix for the 4-6 spots. As per usual, the beginning of the season will likely be big for this team.

 

[geehaad]

It doesn't sound like there's quite the urgency in this year's predictions that the Canes *must* make the playoffs that I would have thought. Some of you are downright pessimistic...not that there's anything wrong with that, just that it's funny to note the difference between last off-season and this, while noting this off-season has an extra year of futility piled on. With the expected urgency to make the playoffs, the off-season moves, and the likely whole-team improvement, I would've figured I'd see a lot more "we're gonna make it this year!" posts.

We're gonna make it this year!

(for what it's worth, I predicted they wouldn't even be in the hunt last year)

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Justin Williams makes us a playoff team. Because grit gritters gritness.

 

[DaveG]

I think we're gonna make it this year, and the only thing that IMHO holds us back is simply how damn difficult this division is. That said, I don't think it will be quite as difficult as last year with the only teams seeming to hold form being Pittsburgh (who's miles ahead) and the Isles (who's in our wheelhouse).

Caps downgraded across the board aside from in net.
If people think our center situation is bad they need to take a look at the Rangers.
Flyers downgraded almost across the board, and I don't think Patrick is anywhere near the typical #1-2 OA hype. Hell I think he's somewhere between RNH and Yakupov as far as talent goes.
Jackets held form and were a young team last year, but they were also a team that benefited from a TON of career seasons last year.
Devils got better but are still easily going to be taking up the rear in this division for another year or three.
We upgraded almost literally everything in our lineup. Didn't lose a single notable roster player, switched out PDG as a regular for Williams, swapped out Tennyson/Murphy/Nakladal for TVR, switched out McClement for Krueger, switched out "make a ****ing save" for Darling.

As I see it right now:

PIT

WSH

CAR
CBS
NYR

PHI
NYI

NJ

There's room for each team to move up or down 1 tier IMHO, but not more then that. So all said we're probably fighting it out for a wild card spot or #3 Metro. Could all come down to luck of the draw for us and turning some of that absurd amount of OTLs we had last year in to OTWs

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It doesn't sound like there's quite the urgency in this year's predictions that the Canes *must* make the playoffs that I would have thought.

I definitely think there is an urgency to make the playoffs this year, which is one of the reasons I started this thread. Looking at the division and roster though, I don't think it's a given that they will, but I do expect them to be in the hunt all year long though and with a few breaks, I think they can make it.

I think there's urgency for a few reasons. First off, RF and BP are now in year 4 of their tenure and they've had very little turn-over on the roster this year (in terms of player losses). For all the accolades the media and other fan bases give to RF and BP, it's time to show results. Secondly, the Canes themselves have set the expectations. Ya, I know every year a coach and GM says "Our goal is to make the playoffs", but I always viewed it as lip service in previous years. This year, with the off season moves they made, I think they fully expect to make the playoffs and have set fan expectations. Fail to deliver on that and it could even further suck the life out of the fan base. Thirdly, if the Canes want any chance of re-signing guys like Skinner and Faulk, they need to get to the playoffs. Lastly, if the new ownership deal goes through, IMO, it would be huge to make the playoffs right away.

The past 3 years, my overall view has been that it wasn't urgent to make the playoffs and it was best to be patient and build the team teh right way. This year though, I think there is an urgency.

 

[sheriff bart]

There are rumors out of the Islanders camp that Tavares loves the direction of the team in Raleigh and would be willing to re-sign were he to be traded there.

(BBA is my role model)

This can't get off this board but word around the Org is that Francis has already spoken to Greenberg about the possibility of adding a "huge $70+ million contract". Doubt Skinner or Faulk could command that much. Maybe there is a connection here?

I'm hearing the same thing.

I can't say from where.

Seems legit to me

 

[Ole Gil]

It doesn't sound like there's quite the urgency in this year's predictions that the Canes *must* make the playoffs that I would have thought. Some of you are downright pessimistic...not that there's anything wrong with that, just that it's funny to note the difference between last off-season and this, while noting this off-season has an extra year of futility piled on. With the expected urgency to make the playoffs, the off-season moves, and the likely whole-team improvement, I would've figured I'd see a lot more "we're gonna make it this year!" posts.

We're gonna make it this year!

(for what it's worth, I predicted they wouldn't even be in the hunt last year)

I think preseason last year, the playoff talk was just delusion. Desperation stemming from a desperate situation.

Now things are looking much better, and success feels inevitable. We know the team has the talent to be in the mix this year. And if they fall a little short, we know the team is likely to be even better next year. Although, I suspect we're all going to be holding our breath while we wait to see what Darling does in net.

But the important thing, is the team seems like it has the talent where it's in the #6-#11 range in the conference. Compared to the past couple years, where it was more in the #9-#15 range.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think it's a disappointment this year if we don't make it. I think we're entering our window. If we have a great year and fall one point short to another very good team maybe there's some forgiveness there but at this point we should be very much in it.

Having said that I'm still convinced we're there. We're counting on Fleury to be ready when we don't know that he is. Is Hanifin really ready to be second pair? We're assuming good transitions from TVR and Darling. We're assuming no major injuries. We have a little bit of depth, not enough to cover some bigger losses.

If healthy we have balanced lines and a good mix of youth and vets. Our D if everyone shows up ready to play can be amongst the best. We may get above average goaltending. I don't like being the media's darling, that can be a Lisa of death but I think people have to look at us as a contender for a playoff spot.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Having said that I'm still convinced we're there.

I think you meant still "not" convinced, right?

I do like the "Lisa of death" though.

 

[bleedgreen]

Typing long posts on my phone is also a Lisa of death. I'm leaving it!

Yes, not convinced.

Ironically my sister is named Lisa, and my favorite story to tease her about is when we were kids in cape cod for vacation. My hamster on its wheel was driving her nuts at night so she put it the car to get some sleep and it suffocated. I was 5. Ive never forgotten. Lisa of death indeed....

 

[geehaad]

I think preseason last year, the playoff talk was just delusion. Desperation stemming from a desperate situation.

Right, which is the point I was driving at...because the poll indicated about half of us thought they'd make the playoffs (delusion or otherwise). Gauging the responses up to the point I wrote that post, the HFCanes' forecast didn't really seem any rosier, or at least indicating how urgent a playoff appearance would be. Almost as if folks had gotten slightly comfortable with the Canes not making it again this year, that the predicted urgency had been mitigated somewhat. And what's really ironic about it is the fact that there have been so many positive signs this offseason, you'd almost think we'd be even more delusional about the chances we have this year. Maybe it's simply a condition of being a Canes fan.

Anyway, just thought it was interesting.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Last year, I was not confident that we'd get in, so I said confidently that we'd get in.

This year, I'm confident that we *might* get it, so I'm not confident saying anything except:

Boy, I hope we get in.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I said on the right side of the bubble last season, sticking to the same this season. The division is still stacked, but no one improved (on paper) as much as we have, and quite a few declined (on paper).

 

[Breakdowns]

As I see it right now:

PIT

WSH

CAR
CBS
NYR

PHI
NYI

NJ

There's room for each team to move up or down 1 tier IMHO, but not more then that. So all said we're probably fighting it out for a wild card spot or #3 Metro. Could all come down to luck of the draw for us and turning some of that absurd amount of OTLs we had last year in to OTWs

I agree with this ranking for sure if we can be somewhat injury free and we start the year better than last few.

I really like what GMRF have done this off-season and I am excited about the new season. I really think we could be at least Wild Card team.

 

[Ole Gil]

Bold prediction! If Aho gets 60+ points this season, the Canes end up with over 100 in the standings.

 

[DaveG]

Here's the crazy part, I don't just see Aho with 60+ this year as possible but as flat out likely.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The players have set the expectations themselves. Pesce after signing his contract said specifically that with what Francis added, anything short of the playoffs is a failure. Williams said playoffs. Darling said there would be no early golf. etc...

I agree with what Wally said earlier and I alluded to the same thing. Any talk of playoffs in prior seasons seemed like lip service or unfounded hope. This year though, I think the team, players and fans actually believe it and that's why I think there is urgency to make it. I'm not convinced they, but this is the best chance I think they've had in a while.

 

[cptjeff]

Here's the crazy part, I don't just see Aho with 60+ this year as possible but as flat out likely.

Remember how slow he was to start the season last year as he figured out the NHL game? Yeah, that won't happen this year.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He did have a bit of a slow start, although that was more of a goals thing than a points thing. Here's his PPG by month (with games played). October was right in line with his full season average but Nov was one of his lowest. The lowest month was April (small sample size when the season was already in the tank), February, followed by Nov.

I do agree with you though. I think he'll be more ready for the pro game and more ready to handle the rigors, travel, etc.. of an NHL season which hopefully should lead to a more consistent and productive season.

October: 8GP / 0.63PPG
November: 14GP / 0.43PPG
December: 14GP / 0.64PPG
January: 13GP / 0.77 PPG
February: 10GP / 0.40PPG
March: 17GP/ 0.76PPG
April: 6GP: / 0.33PPG

Total: 82GP / 0.60PPG

 

[Lempo]

Also note the long off-season. Last year he played up to Liiga Finals, then the WHC and then the early start with the World Cup.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Also note the long off-season. Last year he played up to Liiga Finals, then the WHC and then the early start with the World Cup.

Yeah, IIRC, in his interview after the season though, he said the number of games wasn't tough on him, but all the travel, living in hotels, etc.. was tough to adjust to.

 

[CandyCanes]

We're gonna see Aho lot of goals from Mr. Sea Bass this year.

I think we could reasonably hope Aho can put 60+ this year.