A SERIOUS DEBATE: 2017/18 Expectations

[Boom Boom Apathy]

After training camp, we'll do the normal "where will the Canes finish" poll, but I wanted to discuss expectations more broadly. For me personally, I don't think my expectations and excitement for the team has been this high in years.

• Francis has done a lot to stock the system with legitimate (albeit not elite) prospects. Canes truly have a deep prospect pool at pretty much every position right now.
• Canes have a fantastic, young defense.
• Skinner had a career year.
• Aho came in and exceeded expectations.
• Lindholm took a big step in his development.
• Williams, Kruger, TVR and Darling (hopefully) should go a long way fill some holes the team has had.
• The talk of new ownership could breath new life into the team.

The players, coaches and media are all talking about the team being on the upswing and a playoff contender, and it doesn't come across as just lip service. Some keys for me:

1) Hanifin needs to prove he's a legit top 4 D this year. He showed a glimpse of it after Hainsey was moved, but he needs to show it.
2) Faulk needs to be the "pre-injury" Faulk. Last off-season, he was still struggling with the high ankle sprain but he should be healthy this off-season. With Slavin and Pesce taking the tough assignments, I could see a 20G, 50P+ season out of Faulk.
3) TVR and Fleury/Dahlbeck need to solidify the bottom pairing. They don't need to be great, but they need to not be a liability.
4) Most importantly, Darling needs to be the real deal, or at least good enough that we don't need to run Ward 60+ games.
5) Lindholm needs to not go "0 for October".

I'd like to see guys like Aho, Lindholm, and TT take another step forward, but with the addition of Williams and Kruger, I don't think they need to in order for the team to be successful.

My expectations is that this team battles for a playoff spot all season and is right in the thick of it. I also think new ownership will invigorate the fanbase as well. If they come out of the gate poorly in October/November again, it will be a bitter pill to swallow.

DISCUSS!

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[MinJaBen]

My expectations are that we will be "in the hunt" all season. This means I expect that after 10 or so games, we will not fall more than 5pts behind the playoff cutoff for the remainder of the season. Given our division, I don't expect a playoff birth, but we should be in it until the last couple of games and if we make the playoffs, it won't be because of some miracle run like we tried last year.

 

[The Jerk Store]

I think the Canes make the playoffs this year.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I have said each of the last two offseasons that this is the year we should guess "playoffs" in our yearly "where will the Canes finish?" poll. Last year I thought we'd be close but out, and this year was the year we could really be "disappointed" if they miss.

I'm sticking by that. We added a 20-goal scorer that should at least be a 15-goal scorer on this team. We solidified the bottom pairing. We got a goalie. We now have arguably the best 4C in the game.

Add that to the fact that this is one of the youngest teams in the league, and on the whole a step forward can be expected. Any given individual player may or may not progress, but with the amount of guys we have that could take a step forward, it's hard to imagine not improving internally as a whole.

We will see how Darling turns out. Personally, I'm expecting below average NHL starter (16th-20th best in the league). This, of course, is a massive improvement to what we've had. That said, it is not out of the realm of possibility that even if we get the same level of goaltending as last year, the other improvements to the roster still allows us to make the playoffs.

Not only this, but the group of prospects that we are usually pencilling into the lineup at this time of year will now get to slot in when injuries occur. That depth makes us more injury-proof than we've been in awhile. Two years ago, after the cup of tea he had last year, Wallmark would've been pencilled into this lineup, and would've likely played a lot. Now, the depth is there so that when someone goes down, he steps in. Etc.

I'm all in on the playoffs this year. I've been right in my break pumping for the last few years, and I feel good about being right about this too. According to most fancy stats people, we added the most GAR or whatever than any team, and that's ignoring the fact that we have an absurdly young team that we could've assumed would improve anyway.

We lost 0 players of importance due to the expansion draft, and the main guy we lost in the offseason (McClement) is widely thought of as perhaps the worst player in the league.

I'm expecting Fleury to come in and win the bottom pairing spot in camp. Seems like he's NHL ready, and he was probably a better hockey player than Tennyson or Murphy last year anyway, so even if he doesn't blow everyone away he's still probably an improvement.

While he could stay stagnant and no one here would blame him, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Aho took a noticeable step this year. He put up great point numbers despite a somewhat slow start, and you can tell he's got the attitude you'd expect from a star.

TT is someone I really like. He did see a slight uptick in production last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another.

Anyway, I could analyze the whole team but I'm on my phone. It's an exciting time to be a Canes fan, and I'm on board for the playoffs this year.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

As far as the division being tough is concerned, that is true. But I don't necessarily think it's impossible.

Pittsburgh and Washington are still locks, but neither will be as strong as last year (particularly Washington), so that drop in points could certainly wind up in ANY of the other Metro teams' pockets (there's only so many points to go around, and they won't all wind up in DC next year). As a team that seems to lose a lot to those two, them getting weaker might help.

Columbus is good but there won't be another streak like last year. We seem to do well against them as well. Not that anyone is putting the Canes ahead of Columbus next year, but I don't think they are Pittsburgh/Washington level locks this year to the point where that notion is virtually impossible.

The Rangers didn't really get better. They gained Shattenkirk but they lost Stepan. Now their top 2 Cs are ZBad and Hayes. Everyone talks about the Canes having a tough time at center, but that's pretty close. That said, gaining Shattenkirk might unlock McDonough a little more; he's a darn good player whose been babysitting Girardi the last few years.

I think we are better than the Isles. They finished ahead of us last year, and did upgrade Strome into Eberle, but I think the upgrades the Canes made firmly moved them ahead of the Islanders.

Philly is interesting. I think Mason > Elliott, so they got worse there. I think Schenn > Lehtera so they got worse there too. They lost Del Zotto and are likely replacing from within, which I think is another way they got worse. But Patrick is a big wildcard. That said, I think on paper the Canes are ahead here too.

I like the Devils offseason and I think they got better, but not enough to be better than the Canes on paper.

So, that means we've got:

Pitt
Wsh

Cbj
NYR

Car
Phi
NYI

NJD

1) I think of the group the Canes are in I'd put them on top on paper.
2) That would put them in 5th in the division, which may again be enough to make the playoffs.
3) I think while Pit and Wsh are locks, that Clb/NYR group could be invaded, both are better on preseason paper than the Canes but not locks to be like the group above them.

Playoffs are certainly reachable, the division is tough but doesn't make it impossible.

 

[Unsustainable]

Caps
Pitt
---
CBJ
---
Canes
NYR
PHI
---
NYI
NJD

If Darling steps up, Lindy plays like he did the last half of the season, and no one regressed, we should be 4th in the Metro.

 

[MinJaBen]

Caps
Pitt
---
CBJ
---
Canes
NYR
PHI
---
NYI
NJD

If Darling steps up, Lindy plays like he did the last half of the season, and no one regressed, we should be 4th in the Metro.

I generally agree with your sentiment, but if no one regressing is a criteria, I think that is unlikely. Skinner put up a career year. At his age, it is not likely to be a stepping stone to another career year like you might expect from a younger and still developing player. He most likely will come down some in goals and points from last year.

 

[GoldiFox]

The difference between Columbus and the Canes will primarily be the difference between Bobrovski and Darling, IMO.

Last year Columbus caught lightning in a bottle with career years. Cam Atkinson had a career year and led the team in goals (35) and points (62). Skinner is a better version, however a better comparable would be any one of Lindholm, TT, or Rask breaking out for 60+ (Plausible). Columbus had top contributions from young guns like Wennberg and Werenski. The Canes can get the same from Aho and Hanifin/Fleury. Columbus had a top young #1 to lead in Jones, the Canes should have that in Slavin/Faulk. Columbus got contributions from depth such as Josh Anderson putting up ~20 goals. The Canes can hope for the same from one/two of McGinn, Zykov, Wallmark, Gauthier, Roy, etc.

Bobrovsky was a monster last year. If Darling can play 75% as good then the Canes are a Wildcard favorite for me.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I generally agree with your sentiment, but if no one regressing is a criteria, I think that is unlikely. Skinner put up a career year. At his age, it is not likely to be a stepping stone to another career year like you might expect from a younger and still developing player. He most likely will come down some in goals and points from last year.

Someone will regress. It's unavoidable, it's part of hockey.

That said, the assumption "the team as a whole doesn't regress", as in, for everyone who regresses someone else progresses, is certainly not a crazy assumption.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The difference between Columbus and the Canes will primarily be the difference between Bobrovski and Darling, IMO.

Last year Columbus caught lightning in a bottle with career years. Cam Atkinson had a career year and led the team in goals (35) and points (62). Skinner is a better version, however a better comparable would be any one of Lindholm, TT, or Rask breaking out for 60+ (Plausible). Columbus had top contributions from young guns like Wennberg and Werenski. The Canes can get the same from Aho and Hanifin/Fleury. Columbus had a top young #1 to lead in Jones, the Canes should have that in Slavin/Faulk. Columbus got contributions from depth such as Josh Anderson putting up ~20 goals. The Canes can hope for the same from one/two of McGinn, Zykov, Wallmark, Gauthier, Roy, etc.

Bobrovsky was a monster last year. If Darling can play 75% as good then the Canes are a Wildcard favorite for me.

I'd agree with the majority of this post, though I doubt any of those depth guys you mentioned gets close to 20 goals, let alone 2 of them. Suppose it's always possible though.

That said, Bob is a pretty spectacular trump card. Agreed with the Skinner being better than Atkinson comment, and I'll even take our defense core over theirs. But goaltending a one player aspect of your team, and their one player is a heck of a lot better than ours.

 

[sheriff bart]

I expect the Canes to be a wildcard team. The Canes finished with 87 pts (36-31-15). The 15 OT losses should be helped by better goaltending alone. If that were reduced to just 10 last season and the rest stayed the same (making it 41-31-10), the Canes would have ended with 92 pts and been close. The margin is just that close in this league.

On paper, I think the team should be somewhere from 8-10 pts better than last season mostly from improved goaltending and an additional 15-20 goals from JWilly. Any improvement on the PP would do wonders for this possibility.

 

[geehaad]

That said, Bob is a pretty spectacular trump card. goaltending a one player aspect of your team, and their one player is a heck of a lot better than ours.

But that's with Bob having a spectacular jump in performance last year as compared to the year before. If he regresses back to the mean, then that trump card is simply a face card.

 

[Lempo]

20 G, 35 A, 60 P and above .73 PpGP are the grand slam that alone unlocks the full load of Schedule A Performance Bonuses, and I have hard time believing that Aho wouldn't be right there with the other 2nd year top talents putting in the numbers to make that happen.

 

[AD Skinner]

I've got to think that a wildcard spot is the expectation for the front office. They didn't break the bank but did address the biggest issues (that could be done realistically- even landing Williams was beyond what I thought realistic) and there's a ton of cap room and assets to move for a rental if they're in position to at the deadline. Even if they get swept in the first round, they've got to take that step and qualify- anything more is gravy, anything less is a disappointment.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Woah I didn't even think about that.

What if we are comfortably in the playoffs and actually get someone at the deadline?

What if that someone is Tavares? And it's like Hanifin+Gauthier+1st or something, then he re-signs...

Guys, Tavares is coming to Raleigh!

 

[GoldiFox]

Skinner - Tavares - Lindholm
Sedin - Sedin - Williams
Aho - Rask - TT

Pretty ok top-9 I guess.

Nordstrom - Staal - Stempniak/Jooris for shutdown line.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

How did this thread end up turning into a Leafs board thread?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

How did this thread end up turning into a Leafs board thread?

I'm gonna probably post Hanifin+Gauthier+1st for Tavares on the trade board just to get everyone's feel for it.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Come home Johnny!

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Johnny Triangle reppin the 919

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

There are rumors out of the Islanders camp that Tavares loves the direction of the team in Raleigh and would be willing to re-sign were he to be traded there.

(BBA is my role model)

 

[GoldiFox]

There are rumors out of the Islanders camp that Tavares loves the direction of the team in Raleigh and would be willing to re-sign were he to be traded there.

(BBA is my role model)

This can't get off this board but word around the Org is that Francis has already spoken to Greenberg about the possibility of adding a "huge $70+ million contract". Doubt Skinner or Faulk could command that much. Maybe there is a connection here?

 

[MinJaBen]

This can't get off this board but...

 

[Navin R Slavin]

This can't get off this board but word around the Org is that Francis has already spoken to Greenberg about the possibility of adding a "huge $70+ million contract". Doubt Skinner or Faulk could command that much. Maybe there is a connection here?

I'm hearing the same thing.

I can't say from where.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This is big enough news that it probably deserves it's own thread on our board, no?