Post-Game Talk: A frustrating game

[Lacaar]

Geez. I just came by to see what people thought of the game. I think the Oil have to figure out that defensive posture that both LA and Vegas showed. I know it's a pretty basic hockey idea, but they need a way around the clogging o up the middle.

*My hockey thought of the day*

It's definitely a strategy that has proven effective against us. Collapse low and see if the other team has the will or luck.

Vegas has proven that they can hold a lead against us more often than not. Edmonton needs to find a way to crack that nut consistently. They create well enough but man they finish plays so poorly.

It feels like Edmonton creates more scoring chances but simply has such a piss poor conversion rate against the likes of these teams. Squeezing the stick? who knows.

I think they just have to accept that they have to charge that net, accept and deal with the punishment to find lose pucks.

 

[K1984]

It's definitely a strategy that has proven effective against us. Collapse low and see if the other team has the will or luck.

Vegas has proven that they can hold a lead against us more often than not. Edmonton needs to find a way to crack that nut consistently. They create well enough but man they finish plays so poorly.

It feels like Edmonton creates more scoring chances but simply has such a piss poor conversion rate against the likes of these teams. Squeezing the stick? who knows.

I think they just have to accept that they have to charge that net, accept and deal with the punishment to find lose pucks.

I think the pace and order of their decision making with the puck is what is causing problems. Currently upon possession the default for nearly every offensive player on our team is to look pass. As they are looking pass they stop skating. Then if pass isn't there they area dump it or rim it as the first choice, shoot it as a distant third choice.

This allows the other team to set up in their structure, pushes the play high in the o zone allowing them to fill the slot, allows the goalie time to get in position, and allows defenders to get in shooting lanes. If we reverse the current decision making order so that driving the net and/or shooting is the default choice it will become much more difficult for the opposition to set up, we won't have near the number of off man turnovers high in the o zone, and plays will open up due to the positional chaos that going to the net creates.

It isn't a coincidence to me that almost all of our scoring opportunities came after we went down 3-0 because that's when we started firing the puck. There was no longer hesitation to shoot, especially from the point. The vigor and aggressiveness in which we were working it low was equal parts refreshing, but also frustrating because we just refuse to do it until we have a gun to our heads.

 

[Lacaar]

I think the pace and order of their decision making with the puck is what is causing problems. Currently upon possession the default for nearly every offensive player on our team is to look pass. As they are looking pass they stop skating. Then if pass isn't there they area dump it or rim it as the first choice, shoot it as a distant third choice.

This allows the other team to set up in their structure, pushes the play high in the o zone allowing them to fill the slot, allows the goalie time to get in position, and allows defenders to get in shooting lanes. If we reverse the current decision making order so that driving the net and/or shooting is the default choice it will become much more difficult for the opposition to set up, we won't have near the number of off man turnovers high in the o zone, and plays will open up due to the positional chaos that going to the net creates.

It isn't a coincidence to me that almost all of our scoring opportunities came after we went down 3-0 because that's when we started firing the puck. There was no longer hesitation to shoot, especially from the point. The visor and aggressiveness in which we were working it low was equal parts refreshing, but also frustrating because we just refuse to do it until we have a gun to our heads.

I think you're bang on and perhaps that may explain why the team tip toes into games and even series.

They start off in pass and circle mode before going down and switching to attack the net mode. Perhaps it's why they're such a weak team at finishing chances as they're just so focused on creating them.

 

[Heavy Dee]

I like Holloway in concept, but I haven't at any point been able to understand a lot of people's insistence he be in the top 6. He's scoring at Brown and Janmark rates, two guys that everyone is trying to chase out of the lineup.

I like the player but if we are being realistic he tops out as a third liner on a contender. Can't fall in love with those players. Plus his play has really dipped since the break.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[brentashton]

Baby steps. At least Gags is getting some reps on the line he would play on. Seems like he’s displacing the wrong guy though.

 

[Stoneman89]

When Nuge brings it he's one of the best players on a team. But he's clearly back to not bringing half of what got him success last season.

Nuge is another guy that can't light the lamp now. Goes from 37goal scorer to having 12 this season, on pace to 20.

Regressing to the mean.

Thankyou, Knob. Your prior chess moves weren't so good.

 

[Stoneman89]

Something has been clearly off for both him and Draisaitl almost from the word go. I appreciate Connor's defensive efforts, but unless we add more scoring we need (fairly or unfairly) him to play like a 130+ point player if we are going anywhere.

Again, I think it's the lack of success on the PP that is dragging them down, points wise. I know we're in the top 10 in PP now, so nothing to sneer at, but last year we were the leaders by a fair margin, and both McDavid and Drai were miles ahead of everyone else in PP points and I think Nuge was top 5 in there as well.

 

[frag2]

I like Holloway in concept, but I haven't at any point been able to understand a lot of people's insistence he be in the top 6. He's scoring at Brown and Janmark rates, two guys that everyone is trying to chase out of the lineup.

Putting him in top 6 is the equivalent of plugging a NHL 77 OVR rating player in the top 6. Not good enough this year to justify the bump. And honestly watching all his games, unless something magically clicks up there, I'm not really sure it ever will. He really does look like just a more hard nosed Foegele

Again, I think it's the lack of success on the PP that is dragging them down, points wise. I know we're in the top 10 in PP now, so nothing to sneer at, but last year we were the leaders by a fair margin, and both McDavid and Drai were miles ahead of everyone else in PP points and I think Nuge was top 5 in there as well.

PP has been shit because once McD has the puck, you know what he's going to do 9/10 times. He's gonna try to force a pass to a stationary Drai. It's too predictable and teams are blocking the appropriate lanes to cut them off. Plus, Bouchard has been playing like an idiot lately, reluctant to wire the shot.

 

[Da McBomb]

 

[K1984]

Putting him in top 6 is the equivalent of plugging a NHL 77 OVR rating player in the top 6. Not good enough this year to justify the bump. And honestly watching all his games, unless something magically clicks up there, I'm not really sure it ever will. He really does look like just a more hard nosed Foegele



PP has been shit because once McD has the puck, you know what he's going to do 9/10 times. He's gonna try to force a pass to a stationary Drai. It's too predictable and teams are blocking the appropriate lanes to cut them off. Plus, Bouchard has been playing like an idiot lately, reluctant to wire the shot.

Further to this, the decisions we make on zone entry are usually terrible. Even when it is so clearly not there, we force the puck high on the wall and it then becomes easy pickings to collapse on it and push it out. That's if we don't turn it over trying to dangle through 5 players at the blue line first.

My criticism is directed at players here, but in the big picture it's probably time for a change to the system. We've been running it for the better part of 5 years, and it appears to me that a lot of teams have figured it out.

 

[frag2]

Further to this, the decisions we make on zone entry are usually terrible. Even when it is so clearly not there, we force the puck high on the wall and it then becomes easy pickings to collapse on it and push it out. That's if we don't turn it over trying to dangle through 5 players at the blue line first.

My criticism is directed at players here, but in the big picture it's probably time for a change to the system. We've been running it for the better part of 5 years, and it appears to me that a lot of teams have figured it out.

Holloway is basically Taylor Hall but 77 OVR lol

Oh it's definitely a player problem first and foremost. That said, it's easily [or at least one would think it would be with the talent level on ice] rectifiable if they played with some sense of urgency and focusing getting the puck at the net. Way too often, its fancy plays or get the puck to Drai. Drai doesn't help when he's just idling and never changing up making the play easily defendable.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

A week ago I would have been begging to flip Nuge and Kane to give each of those guys a different look to get out of their funks. However, right at the moment the top line starts to play like absolute ass, Kane starts to come alive on the second line. So now you don't want to mess with it again.

Nuge has to get the pace back in his game. He's been incredibly deferential and isn't going to the middle of the ice at all. On the power play game winner against the Ducks he was finally playing an assertive style, cutting hard to the middle of the ice, not delaying, making plays quickly. I had almost forgotten what that looked like. Tonight he was right back to holding the puck on the high wall and softly turning it over.

I agree with some of your thinking. Though it's interesting to look at this year's production sliced up and with a bit of historical context.
Definitely agree that Nuge needs to show shot more on the PP which isn't as consistently excellent. Line 1 which has been among the league's best has shifted goals to Hyman whose #'s & shooting % are trending career high.

It's also interesting to look at Draisaitl's numbers. His EV goal scoring numbers are pretty average and he also had a stretch with McDavid which I'd be curious to see how his EV production numbers are as a finishing winger. Would like to see Drai get/take more shots at 2C. He's a one-time scorer who thrives on speed of release which inhibits accuracy though he's top PP finisher when deployed at wing. Overall his elite shooting percentage has dipped abit from the past two seasons. Kane, through injury has delivered EV goal production and essentially all EV production.

EV goals: McDavid 26; Hyman 22; Draisaitl 13; Nugent Hopkins 9; Kane 16
PP goals: McDavid 5; Hyman 9; Draisaitl 11; Nugent Hopkins 3; Kane 2

EV points: McDavid 45; Hyman 35; Draisaitl 37; Nuge 27; Kane 27
PP points: McDavid 26; Hyman 13; Draisaitl 23; Nuge 17; Kane 5

Shooting %: McDavid 13.4%; Hyman 18.1%; Draisaitl 17.9%; Nuge 10.3%; Kane 12.4%
Last season %: McDavid 18.2%; Hyman 13%; Draisaitl 21.1%; Nuge 18.4%; Kane 11%
2 seasons %: McDavid 14%; Hyman 12.7%; Draisaitl 19.8%; Nuge 7.1%; Kane 14.5%

If/when/as the Oil start to regress back to a more realistic winning percentage with harder schedule and competition it might be worth some line juggling to move Nuge to support Draisaitl's power centre game with a guy who can help get Draisaitl more shooting and finishing opportunities. McDavid drives everyone's production so maybe Kane can twirl at top left wing especially if he's more healthy.

Power play needs to be faster in its execution which is obvious when McDavid takes over grabbing the puck and circling trying to draw defenders out of their defending structure but also to get his own teammates moving who can lapse into slow, methodical puck movement turning their back away with little turns toward the blue line (a tendency of both Draisaitl and Nugent Hopkins). Nuge needs to show shot more to force defending him - why I like him taking the puck to middle ice slot. Early shot attempts with Bouch bomb also helps to disrupt stacked home plate defending.

 

[frag2]

I agree with some of your thinking. Though it's interesting to look at this year's production sliced up and with a bit of historical context.
Definitely agree that Nuge needs to show shot more on the PP which isn't as consistently excellent. Line 1 which has been among the league's best has shifted goals to Hyman whose #'s & shooting % are trending career high.

It's also interesting to look at Draisaitl's numbers. His EV goal scoring numbers are pretty average and he also had a stretch with McDavid which I'd be curious to see how his EV production numbers are as a finishing winger. Would like to see Drai get/take more shots at 2C. He's a one-time scorer who thrives on speed of release which inhibits accuracy though he's top PP finisher when deployed at wing. Overall his elite shooting percentage has dipped abit from the past two seasons. Kane, through injury has delivered EV goal production and essentially all EV production.

EV goals: McDavid 26; Hyman 22; Draisaitl 13; Nugent Hopkins 9; Kane 16
PP goals: McDavid 5; Hyman 9; Draisaitl 11; Nugent Hopkins 3; Kane 2

EV points: McDavid 45; Hyman 35; Draisaitl 37; Nuge 27; Kane 27
PP points: McDavid 26; Hyman 13; Draisaitl 23; Nuge 17; Kane 5

Shooting %: McDavid 13.4%; Hyman 18.1%; Draisaitl 17.9%; Nuge 10.3%; Kane 12.4%
Last season %: McDavid 18.2%; Hyman 13%; Draisaitl 21.1%; Nuge 18.4%; Kane 11%
2 seasons %: McDavid 14%; Hyman 12.7%; Draisaitl 19.8%; Nuge 7.1%; Kane 14.5%

If/when/as the Oil start to regress back to a more realistic winning percentage with harder schedule and competition it might be worth some line juggling to move Nuge to support Draisaitl's power centre game with a guy who can help get Draisaitl more shooting and finishing opportunities. McDavid drives everyone's production so maybe Kane can twirl at top left wing especially if he's more healthy.

Power play needs to be faster in its execution which is obvious when McDavid takes over grabbing the puck and circling trying to draw defenders out of their defending structure but also to get his own teammates moving who can lapse into slow, methodical puck movement turning their back away with little turns toward the blue line (a tendency of both Draisaitl and Nugent Hopkins). Nuge needs to show shot more to force defending him - why I like him taking the puck to middle ice slot. Early shot attempts with Bouch bomb also helps to disrupt stacked home plate defending.

The problem is he tends not to because he's always just curling at the wall, usually double teamed. I get he's trying to draw defenders to him but it's become way too predictable

Hell, like the PP, this whole team has become way too predictable

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The problem is he tends not to because he's always just curling at the wall, usually double teamed. I get he's trying to draw defenders to him but it's become way too predictable

Hell, like the PP, this whole team has become way too predictable

I'll agree with that. Stylistically McDavid utilizes his speed to attack opposition and his super human processor to make the best play most of the time... though with stacked defending against him tending to look pass more (again). Draisaitl and Nugent Hopkins are more traditional slow down play and analyze for weakness with brain and ability to distribute pucks for these looks. In Draisaitl's case, he's also able to ride as an elite finishing winger who utilizes quick, one-time release to catch defenders and goaltender moving.

I hate the little curl backs by both on the PP.

 

[K1984]

I agree with some of your thinking. Though it's interesting to look at this year's production sliced up and with a bit of historical context.
Definitely agree that Nuge needs to show shot more on the PP which isn't as consistently excellent. Line 1 which has been among the league's best has shifted goals to Hyman whose #'s & shooting % are trending career high.

It's also interesting to look at Draisaitl's numbers. His EV goal scoring numbers are pretty average and he also had a stretch with McDavid which I'd be curious to see how his EV production numbers are as a finishing winger. Would like to see Drai get/take more shots at 2C. He's a one-time scorer who thrives on speed of release which inhibits accuracy though he's top PP finisher when deployed at wing. Overall his elite shooting percentage has dipped abit from the past two seasons. Kane, through injury has delivered EV goal production and essentially all EV production.

EV goals: McDavid 26; Hyman 22; Draisaitl 13; Nugent Hopkins 9; Kane 16
PP goals: McDavid 5; Hyman 9; Draisaitl 11; Nugent Hopkins 3; Kane 2

EV points: McDavid 45; Hyman 35; Draisaitl 37; Nuge 27; Kane 27
PP points: McDavid 26; Hyman 13; Draisaitl 23; Nuge 17; Kane 5

Shooting %: McDavid 13.4%; Hyman 18.1%; Draisaitl 17.9%; Nuge 10.3%; Kane 12.4%
Last season %: McDavid 18.2%; Hyman 13%; Draisaitl 21.1%; Nuge 18.4%; Kane 11%
2 seasons %: McDavid 14%; Hyman 12.7%; Draisaitl 19.8%; Nuge 7.1%; Kane 14.5%

If/when/as the Oil start to regress back to a more realistic winning percentage with harder schedule and competition it might be worth some line juggling to move Nuge to support Draisaitl's power centre game with a guy who can help get Draisaitl more shooting and finishing opportunities. McDavid drives everyone's production so maybe Kane can twirl at top left wing especially if he's more healthy.

Power play needs to be faster in its execution which is obvious when McDavid takes over grabbing the puck and circling trying to draw defenders out of their defending structure but also to get his own teammates moving who can lapse into slow, methodical puck movement turning their back away with little turns toward the blue line (a tendency of both Draisaitl and Nugent Hopkins). Nuge needs to show shot more to force defending him - why I like him taking the puck to middle ice slot. Early shot attempts with Bouch bomb also helps to disrupt stacked home plate defending.

Good post, the bolded comment at the end especially.

I feel like a lot of the success on the power play is predicated a lot on how RNH is playing on it. In year's past even when the PP was scalding hot, it would cool off as soon as Nuge missed any time. The key to his effectiveness there is how assertive he is cutting to the middle and making himself both a shooting and passing threat. This year he seems comfortable just being a facilitator of the cycle, distributing low to McDavid or high to Bouch. Even when he has space to take a step to the middle, he just kind of doesn't.

It's kind of hard to describe, but it's that quick step he does to get himself into the slot. He either shoots from there or dishes to Drai due to defenders coming in to stop him from shooting. It opens so much up and changes the entire dynamic of the powerplay when he does it.

I'll agree with that. Stylistically McDavid utilizes his speed to attack opposition and his super human processor to make the best play most of the time... though with stacked defending against him tending to look pass more (again). Draisaitl and Nugent Hopkins are more traditional slow down play and analyze for weakness with brain and ability to distribute pucks for these looks. In Draisaitl's case, he's also able to ride as an elite finishing winger who utilizes quick, one-time release to catch defenders and goaltender moving.

I hate the little curl backs by both on the PP.

Amen. They just end up taking themselves out of the way of the puck and make poking it out of the zone easy. The worst is when they try to make a frantic pass to Bouchard when they put themselves in trouble, which just turns into two on ones.

 

[RegDunlop]

I think you're all correct as what it comes down to is predictability.
A lot of the problem for me is Bouchards reluctance to shoot at times. No doubt he's very cerebral and makes the awesome play a lot, but if he'd shot more then defenders couldn't just watch for down low plays. We are very good at the default plays we have, but if they're always the same play then it becomes easy to stop.

I think they'll start clicking again soon though

 

[frag2]

I'll agree with that. Stylistically McDavid utilizes his speed to attack opposition and his super human processor to make the best play most of the time... though with stacked defending against him tending to look pass more (again). Draisaitl and Nugent Hopkins are more traditional slow down play and analyze for weakness with brain and ability to distribute pucks for these looks. In Draisaitl's case, he's also able to ride as an elite finishing winger who utilizes quick, one-time release to catch defenders and goaltender moving.

I hate the little curl backs by both on the PP.

With the way the league is refereed, he's just asking to get obstructed when slows down. Sometimes, he's just better off skating straight ahead and wiring one

I think you're all correct as what it comes down to is predictability.
A lot of the problem for me is Bouchards reluctance to shoot at times. No doubt he's very cerebral and makes the awesome play a lot, but if he'd shot more then defenders couldn't just watch for down low plays. We are very good at the default plays we have, but if they're always the same play then it becomes easy to stop.

I think they'll start clicking again soon though

Struds said it best about Bouch. He needs to realize he doesn't have all the time in the world. You can see it when he has the puck - I get he has the confidence to make plays but he's just basically also letting the opp set up. And when he loses the puck, the way he's skating back into our zone-I have no idea why he starts to glide. Cool as a cucumber, dumb as a brick

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I think you're all correct as what it comes down to is predictability.
A lot of the problem for me is Bouchards reluctance to shoot at times. No doubt he's very cerebral and makes the awesome play a lot, but if he'd shot more then defenders couldn't just watch for down low plays. We are very good at the default plays we have, but if they're always the same play then it becomes easy to stop.

I think they'll start clicking again soon though

I could be wrong but maybe he's been burned a few times lately on his shot getting blocked leading to odd man rushes the other way and has been told to be more selective?

 

[K1984]

I could be wrong but maybe he's been burned a few times lately on his shot getting blocked leading to odd man rushes the other way and has been told to be more selective?

That's counter intuitive though, the longer he waits the more the lanes will fill up.

He had the same problem the first half of last year too before finally starting to blast away during the stretch and into the start of this year. I was at a home game in November last year with good low seats where I could see his shooting angle for two of the three periods. He was dusting pucks off and having them blocked at a laughable rate. To the point where I was starting to look for a forward to start hanging back by default to try and catch up to the inevitable break the other way.

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

IMO Brown should be in the pressbox. Give Gagner some games.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

With the way the league is refereed, he's just asking to get obstructed when slows down. Sometimes, he's just better off skating straight ahead and wiring one



Struds said it best about Bouch. He needs to realize he doesn't have all the time in the world. You can see it when he has the puck - I get he has the confidence to make plays but he's just basically also letting the opp set up. And when he loses the puck, the way he's skating back into our zone-I have no idea why he starts to glide. Cool as a cucumber, dumb as a brick

Agree about your first point. Regarding Bouchard, I think it's still a fine-tuning development of a younger defenseman (not necessarily that he's dumb). Agree that he can look physically slow on puck retrievals.

The Oil PP flows through McDavid and it favours a puck possession approach over shot volume. It might account somewhat for his hesitancy to grip it and rip instead of looking for open man. Unfortunately the defense is choosing to stack and clog home plate. Struddy's bang on about Bouchard and maybe being coached into early shots to disrupt passive d structure keeping the Oil expending energy and time around the perimeter. More direct line options including early Bouch bomb and Nugent Hopkins carrying puck into middle high slot and shooting instead of being defended as a pure distributor. Pace can also slow and players more stationary when McDavid isn't handling the puck.

Oh and stop the slow, laborious little button hook on right side of the ice where Draisaitl too often turns away from net facing which often gives Bouchard a hot potato short pass with fast, forechecking pressure.