I didn't either, to be honest. When I was looking at the chart, I scanned over a bunch of the deeper hits before I found the right one.
Blue Jays Discussion: A 7-run lead is the most dangerous lead in baseball.
- Thread starter The Nemesis
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I didn't either, to be honest. When I was looking at the chart, I scanned over a bunch of the deeper hits before I found the right one.
There are tons of fly balls to the track in left-center. And look at the spray chart: there are a few balls hit right down the line that Carrera obviously couldn't have gotten to, and there's the really shallow bloop that fell in. He was positioned in a spot where he could have made a play on something like 80% of the balls Duda has hit to left field. It didn't work out because sometimes the 20% comes out on top in baseball.
Canada4Gold
Registered User
- Dec 22, 2010
- 42,997
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The Jays subbed Valencia in in the 8th, when we were losing 2-1. You always play for the offense when you're losing unless it involves subbing out a catcher with no backup available. If they were tied then yes you might leave Goins in there, but losing it was without a doubt the smart move to play Valencia.
Yes I know that's what you were saying as well, I just had to make sure people remembered it wasn't tied then as a couple people other than you seemed to be basing their thought process on that as well.
LaCarriere
Registered User
Well I didn't say shallow -- I said normal depth. If Duda, who isn't exactly an opposite field hitter beats Carrera with a liner over his head or a gapper you tip your hat to him and move on to the next batter - the result would have been the same. Instead he goes opposite field kind of exactly how you would expect him to, with a flare fly ball and Carrera was way too deep it ends up in exactly what they didn't want --a run scored and Duda at 2nd.
Playing for the win with that part of the lineup sort of makes sense if you have somebody who can play 2B, but I can't agree with crippling yourself defensively to try and win with the bottom of your lineup.
LaCarriere
Registered User
Not true at all.
The arrow points to his hit last night. There are no other hits even remotely in the same vicinity. They played the percentages well.
How can you say they played the percentages well? There's literally a cluster of a dozen flyouts, a sac fly, and 2 lineouts at normal LF depth. If Carrera is playing Duda straight up he catches that ball, and there's hardly anything on the chart where he was playing.
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
That's true, and based on where he was positioned, he would have been able to make a play on a ball hit to normal depth and a ball hit deep towards the gap. The only plays he was poorly positioned to make was something really shallow, which is somewhere Duda never, ever hits the ball.
0-10 is bad, but too low a scale, after 50 or 60 games yes, but only 10 games is not a true or at least legitimate number of games to make a real assessment. My batting avg this year was .800 after my first 10 at bats, after 99 at bats it's dropped significantly to .358.
Radiohead
Street Spirit
- Sep 6, 2008
- 3,171
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Every pick from rounds 1-10 is assigned some "slot" value. In the Blue Jays' case:
1|$1,944,800
2|$1,091,200
3|$636,400
4|$461,200
5|$345,300
6|$258,400
7|$193,900
8|$170,800
9|$159,300
10|$149,700
Total | $5,411,000
Each team is allowed to spend up to that total for the first 10 rounds. They can go over that total, but there might be some penalties in that case. If teams go over the threshold by less than 5%, then they only pay some luxury tax. If they go over by more, then they will lose some draft picks the following season. For teams with money, it doesn't really matter if they pay some tax, so they will likely try to spend up to that 5% overage amount. So for our purposes, let's assume the Jays have an extra $5,411,000*0.05 = $270,550 to spend.
However, teams will generally try to save as much money as possible in these rounds. Every pick from rounds 11-40 has an assigned value of $100,000. Depending on how much teams save in the first 10 rounds, it will allow teams to throw this extra money at these later round picks. For instance, the Jays have currently signed 7 of their top 10 picks, while saving $578,900. With overage, that amounts to $849,450. AA can use this extra money to entice some later round picks to sign, rather than attend college.
There is a caveat though. Teams must actually sign players from rounds 1-10 in order to use these savings. If a player goes unsigned, they lose that player's slot value from their total pool allotment. For instance, the Jays's 8th round pick, Daniel Young, remains unsigned. His slot value is $170,800. If they don't manage to sign him, they lose that amount from their total pool. So it is important for teams to try and draft players that they think will be sign-able.
In past drafts, AA's strategy has been to draft some high potential players in the first few rounds, then "punt" most of the picks from rounds 5-10. "Punting" means to take lower end players that are essentially guaranteed to sign for a very low amount. Alex Azor was drafted in the 10th round 3 years ago, but only signed for $1000. He famously quoted, "I would have signed for a hot dog".
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
A lot of people continue to underestimate one of the best relievers over the past two seasons. "BUT CAN HE CLOSE?" Maybe not 3 in 4 games, but he's a lot better than what we have seen recently.
That's my point. I still think the alignment was fine early in the count but when it went to 3-2 they needed to shift back.
Suntouchable13
Registered User
I hope last night's loss is not a start of a free fall. They are not that fragile, are they? I would hope that there this veteran team understands that losses like last night happen, and they were not going to win all of their remaining games. Hope they show their character tonight.
BuppY
xGoodwillx
Agreed. In the past two years after long winning streak, Jays played below .500 baseball.
Hope things change this year.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Radiohead gave a good full explanation, but the short version is that signing your players drafted in the 1st 10 rounds adds their assigned slot value to the total amount of money you're allowed to spend on your whole draft. So if you sign guys in those rounds for less than their slot value, the difference between their signing amount and slot becomes savings that you can spend on other players (either by exceeding slot value on other guys in the 1st 10 rounds, or by exceeding the allotted $100k value for rounds 11+)
If you exceed your bonus pool by up to 5% you have to pay a 75% tax on every dollar you go over. If you exceed it by 5-10% you have to pay a 100% tax on every dollar and you lose a future draft pick. If you go more than 10% over you pay a 100% tax and lose two future draft picks.
That's not a mistake. The pool only includes the slot amouts for players that are signed (technically the rules say that the team loses any slot value in their pool for guys that are unsigned by the end of the signing period, but practically speaking it's better to look at it in the reverse, that you "earn" the player's slot value in your pool once you sign the guy. That way you can better manage whether or not you'd hit the tax thresholds). If the Jays sign everyone from the 1st 10 rounds they'll have $5,411,000 of total pool money available. And if they signed the last 3 guys right at slot they would indeed have $849,450 under the tax overage threshold.
But as of right now Singer and Young aren' signed and Espada's bonus amount isn't known. So for the time being, the total pool the Jays have available for the guys they've signed is only about $3.8m and given the 5% overage threshold on that amount, they can spend another $770k against the pool on the unslotted guys before hitting the tax threshold even if they weren't to sign anyone else.
If you assumed they had the full $850k left under the tax threshold right now and spent right up to it, then by some miracle they don't sign Young by the deadline, you'd lose his $170,800 pool value and would end up getting caught by the tax and surrendering a pick next year.
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SDig14
Registered User
I also hope people understand that a loss tonight does not mean they are in free fall.
Let's hope the bats come out tonight against a great pitcher.
Harvey has not been very good the last couple outings at least, so let's try to jump on him early and get out to a quick lead!
Let's hope the bats come out tonight against a great pitcher.
Harvey has not been very good the last couple outings at least, so let's try to jump on him early and get out to a quick lead!
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
I am not panicking. We were not going to win the rest of our games. However I am interested to see how they respond after a loss
Sadly cant watch a lot of the game. Seeing Jurassic World!!!!!!!
Longshot
Registered User
In the 4th Jurassic Park movie, genetically modified dinosaurs in an amusement park get loose and kill people.
It's truly amazing they keep coming up with fresh ideas in this franchise...
Longshot
Registered User
During the past 12-15 hours I've read a lot stuff along these lines:
* Gibbons is an idiot
* Cecil should be drawn and quartered
* Valencia is terrible
* The Jays will suck in the post season because they can't hit ace starters
* Dickey sucks
* Last night's game (in which the Jays tied the game late off the closer, took the lead and extras and then lost on a couple of bizarre events) was an absolute "disgrace."
Yep, mild panic has set in.
BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
My thoughts exactly.A rebound win would be great tonight just to finally win one at Citi Field
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
In the 4th Jurassic Park movie, genetically modified dinosaurs in an amusement park get loose and kill people.
It's truly amazing they keep coming up with fresh ideas in this franchise...
This. total money grab
This is one of my favourites, and it comes up all the time.
"The Jays offense isn't good enough because it feasts on bad/mediocre pitching and struggles against aces!"
That argument describes every team ever. That's why those pitchers are considered aces.
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