Fantasy Sports: 7th Annual Flyers Board WJC Fantasy Draft Pool - PALE PWNR is the CHAMPION!

[pit]

Dress to impress, even if you're 19 and the coach will likely underplay you.

Quinton Byfield is the selection. @Captain Dave Poulin , you are up.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I will take Ty Smith, D, Canada

@Coffe is almost surely asleep, so we might have to wait until the morning for the next one, but I'll message him.

 

[pit]

I will take Ty Smith, D, Canada

I was between him and Byfield back and forth. I think you made the right call.

I hate second guessing what I think is best versus what juniors dinosaur coaches will do.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I hated having to go Hlavaj with my 3rd pick, but with so many picks before my 4th, I was scared to death of a goalie run & he’s likely to get all of Slovakia’s games in the weaker group. Hard to predict goaltending a couple weeks before the tourney. But a big miss & you’re out.

 

[Coffe]

Well it's the closest Canada has to a Connor McDavid this year so I hope that means something....

...F Connor McMichael CAN.

@BigToe is next.

 

[Coffe]

I hated having to go Hlavaj with my 3rd pick, but with so many picks before my 4th, I was scared to death of a goalie run & he’s likely to get all of Slovakia’s games in the weaker group. Hard to predict goaltending a couple weeks before the tourney. But a big miss & you’re out.

I was fearing the same when I made my goalie pick. And as soon as I made my pick I had buyer's remorse because a) I wondered if I took it too early and b) whether I should've picked the Finnish guy.

Right now I fear the answer to both questions is "yes".

 

[SanBlom]

I was fearing the same when I made my goalie pick. And as soon as I made my pick I had buyer's remorse because a) I wondered if I took it too early and b) whether I should've picked the Finnish guy.

Right now I fear the answer to both questions is "yes".

I was picking one of the two as well and have the same fears...if it helps any. Goalies are always a crapshoot in this tourney. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Anyway, after picking York too I am really fearing this stretch until my next pick. My poor list is going to get killed!

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I was fearing the same when I made my goalie pick. And as soon as I made my pick I had buyer's remorse because a) I wondered if I took it too early and b) whether I should've picked the Finnish guy.

Right now I fear the answer to both questions is "yes".

As morinisbear said, goalies in the WJC are a definite crapshoot.

I personally had Annunen above Alnefelt just because I’m not as confident in Alnefelt’ playing time. I don’t think anyone thought Ersson was going to win Sweden’s job at this time last year. But at the same time, Sweden is loaded, so if you like their chances for gold, & Alnefelt leads them to it, he could win you the pool.

My biggest fear was getting stuck with a backup who barely plays (or either the Kazakhstan or German goalie) & ending up with zero points at the position.

 

[denominator]

I think you guys are overvaluing goalies a bit too much. Ignoring the shutouts because they are impossible to predict even in mismatches, a "perfect" run for a goalie would be 12 points (4 RR wins, then semis and finals, or 3 RR wins, then quarters, semis, and finals). Given that there are realistically only 5 teams that even have a shot at the perfect goalie run (Canada, USA, Russia, Sweden, and Finland), it's unlikely that any team is ever going to hit that perfect run.

It's further complicated by the fact that most teams don't have a true #1. Canada is wide open and Russia could go Miftakhov or Askarov. Further complicate it in that the "gimme" games are usually given to the backup/1B to let the starter/1A rest and that's 2 more points gone.

In last year's pool, the best goalie had 9 points (both Lehkonen and Kochetkov had 4W and 1A). Again, realistically, the best goalies in the tournament are going to be about 4W, 8 fantasy points.

Conversely, the average number of points for players picked in the first 2 rounds (which is when all the goalies went this year) was 6 points, and that's dragged down by a couple of key misses (Filip Zadina, Evan Barratt). Predictable top-line guys like Poehling, Kravtsov, Frost, Glass, Denisenko, Robertson, Heponiemi, etc) were all far move valuable than their pillow-shinned counterparts.

The key factor is that there are players with far more upside early than goalies, even though the number of goaltenders is limited. We all have to take one goalie, but realistically there are 13 or 14 goalies that will get at least 2 points, and they likely top out at 8 with an average of ~4 points. Skaters are much more limiting in that we are taking a total of 60 skaters, and there are likely far fewer than that who will outscore the goalies. Defencemen are even more limiting with a lot of players putting up 0 points (for reference, we select 40 defencemen for this pool out of a total of ~70 in the tournament). This pool is all about maximizing points/pick, meaning if you can get 2-4 points out of an 11th round goalie pick, that's way better value than 6-8 out of a second round goalie pick (because you can likely get 5-9 out of a second round forward and only 1-2 out of an 11th round forward).

TL;DR I won last year so listen to me

 

[denominator]

My biggest fear was getting stuck with a backup who barely plays (or either the Kazakhstan or German goalie) & ending up with zero points at the position.

Don't forget that the relegation teams play a best-of-three. If you pick the starter off the second worst team, that can net you 4 points in the relegation round (which is better than the third and fourth worst teams, who likely only gets you 2 in RR and 0 in medal rounds).

 

[SanBlom]

I think you guys are overvaluing goalies a bit too much. Ignoring the shutouts because they are impossible to predict even in mismatches, a "perfect" run for a goalie would be 12 points (4 RR wins, then semis and finals, or 3 RR wins, then quarters, semis, and finals). Given that there are realistically only 5 teams that even have a shot at the perfect goalie run (Canada, USA, Russia, Sweden, and Finland), it's unlikely that any team is ever going to hit that perfect run.

It's further complicated by the fact that most teams don't have a true #1. Canada is wide open and Russia could go Miftakhov or Askarov. Further complicate it in that the "gimme" games are usually given to the backup/1B to let the starter/1A rest and that's 2 more points gone.

In last year's pool, the best goalie had 9 points (both Lehkonen and Kochetkov had 4W and 1A). Again, realistically, the best goalies in the tournament are going to be about 4W, 8 fantasy points.

Conversely, the average number of points for players picked in the first 2 rounds (which is when all the goalies went this year) was 6 points, and that's dragged down by a couple of key misses (Filip Zadina, Evan Barratt). Predictable top-line guys like Poehling, Kravtsov, Frost, Glass, Denisenko, Robertson, Heponiemi, etc) were all far move valuable than their pillow-shinned counterparts.

The key factor is that there are players with far more upside early than goalies, even though the number of goaltenders is limited. We all have to take one goalie, but realistically there are 13 or 14 goalies that will get at least 2 points, and they likely top out at 8 with an average of ~4 points. Skaters are much more limiting in that we are taking a total of 60 skaters, and there are likely far fewer than that who will outscore the goalies. Defencemen are even more limiting with a lot of players putting up 0 points (for reference, we select 40 defencemen for this pool out of a total of ~70 in the tournament). This pool is all about maximizing points/pick, meaning if you can get 2-4 points out of an 11th round goalie pick, that's way better value than 6-8 out of a second round goalie pick (because you can likely get 5-9 out of a second round forward and only 1-2 out of an 11th round forward).

TL;DR I won last year so listen to me

Yeah, but if you spend your first two picks on Russia players and they happen to suck.....hmmm

 

[denominator]

Yeah, but if you spend your first two picks on Russia players and they happen to suck.....hmmm

I think the 2019 best defenceman is a pretty safe bet for not sucking in the 2020 tournament.

 

[SanBlom]

I think the 2019 best defenceman is a pretty safe bet for not sucking in the 2020 tournament.

I know, I'm messing with you because you put so much thought into that post.

And the wait for BigToe is boring me.

 

[BigToe]

Gimmie F Samuel Fagemo SWE please

@Coffe

 

[Coffe]

Gimmie F Samuel Fagemo SWE please

@Coffe

@denominator is up next. I just made a pick before you.

 

[denominator]

And the wait for BigToe is boring me.

Me too. It's why I wrote an essay this morning!

@denominator is up next. I just made a pick before you.

F Arthur Kaliyev, USA

F Oliver Wahlstrom, USA

Back to @BigToe

 

[SanBlom]

I predict a Goalie here

 

[BigToe]

@denominator is up next. I just made a pick before you.

Nice . Got my first mistake out the way. Many more to come.

 

[SanBlom]

Me too. It's why I wrote an essay this morning!



F Arthur Kaliyev, USA

F Oliver Wahlstrom, USA

Back to @BigToe

DAMNIT!

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Don't forget that the relegation teams play a best-of-three. If you pick the starter off the second worst team, that can net you 4 points in the relegation round (which is better than the third and fourth worst teams, who likely only gets you 2 in RR and 0 in medal rounds).

Ah, great point about the relegation round.

I didn’t even consider it. (Just my 2nd year doing this. Did get 2nd place last year.)

I got 2 scorers I like with my first 2 picks, but with 14 picks between my 3rd & 4th I thought I’d better secure one of the few goalies I know who is a locked-in starter (& in the weaker pool).

But I like your analysis & it’s very possible I could’ve leveraged better value above replacement with a skater.

 

[denominator]

DAMNIT!

For the record, I HATE Kaliyev as a prospect. He's so uninspiring, basically just Patrik Laine's hands on Matthew Tkachuk's feet with the toolbox of Jake Virtanen.

But the kid can shoot and there are some questionable goaltenders in this tournament.

 

[SanBlom]

For the record, I HATE Kaliyev as a prospect. He's so uninspiring, basically just Patrik Laine's hands on Matthew Tkachuk's feet with the toolbox of Jake Virtanen.

But the kid can shoot and there are some questionable goaltenders in this tournament.

I thought I could sneak Kaliyev in later because I used a pick on a higher end Goalie. Wahlstrom, I was hoping it would get back to me before the news broke that he is definitely going (didn't expect as much). Fagemo right before it was like boom boom boom!

 

[BigToe]

Gimmie my boy F Nils Hoglander SWE

@Coffe

 

[Coffe]

Hoping that the practice lines will stay into the tournament I will go with

F Nolan Foote CAN.

@Captain Dave Poulin is next

 

[Coffe]

I will make sure to update the rosters as well, once my gf stops playing computer games.