The truth of it is that neither approach guarantees anything.
Hextall's build-through-the-draft approach was long overdue, but hasn't yielded great results. Certainly there are many other variables at play, but our high picks (Patrick, Provorov, Farabee) aren't even in the same hockey universe as, say, MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen or Barkov, Ekblad, Huberdeau. So there's some serious bad luck on our side (from draft position, player taken, and quality of the draft year).
I don't think scorched earth is even an option at this point. The organization simply isn't going to forfeit another 5-10 years.
The aggressive retool, as you say, could go either way. I personally don't think Fletcher is very competent, but it doesn't mean he can't find some level of success. Is a playoff berth a success? I'd say yes if only for the fact that it means we're closer to being competitive than we are now. Then it becomes about how the organization is able to find that next level of success.
I just don't believe Fletcher is able to identify what is needed to find that next level. The Risto trade and re-sign just killed my spirit. It is a complete waste of assets, cap space, and roster spot. What's done is done, and I would prefer that Fletch also be put to pasture, but I know that won't happen unless/until the team implodes next season.
I would feel a lot better about things if I believed in the man at the helm, but I absolutely do not.