Post-Game Talk: #71 | Wild at Flyers | March 23, 2023

[deadhead]

They've played 9 games since the TDL. Only 2 were against non-PO teams, Detroit and Buffalo.
4-4-1. GF/GA 29-31 but 22-17 at 5x5. xGF% 50.19%.

Tippett 15:57 xGF 59.18% xGFrel +13.73
Frost 14:37 xGF 51.02% xGFrel +1.12
Hayes 14:20 xGF 55.29% xGFrel +7.37 (a strong finish will make him easier to trade in June)
Farabee 14:11 xGF 48.74% xGFrel -2.07
Allison 13:39 xGF 46.61% xGFrel -8.08
Laughton 13:35 xGF 55.61% xGFrel +7.60
Lemieux 13:31 xGF 51.30% xGFrel +0.48
Foerster 13.28 xGF 47.88% xGFrel -1.94
Cates 13:14 xGF 50.91% xGFrel +1.01
JVR 12:43 xGF 51.21% xGFrel +1.37
Deslauriers 8:05 xGF 39.83% xGFrel -11.02
Laczynski 7:49 xGF 31.50% xGFrel -20.99

Provorov 18:07 xGF 47.76% xGFrel -4.09
TDA 17:05 xGF 58.38% xGFrel +12.34
York 16:22 xGF 50.25% xGFrel +0.09
Sanheim 15:55 xGF 40.63% xGFrel -13.43
Risto 15:16 xGF 37.69% xGFrel -16.98
Seeler 12:38 xGF 62.63% xGFrel +16.64

SSS, but TOI gives you a sense of who Torts is looking at closely down the stretch.
TDA is a shocker, is it sustainable?
Sanheim has been awful, but shows signs of breaking out of his funk the last couple games.

 

[Rebels57]

Still think they end up in the 6-8 spot. They could easily go on a four game losing streak. So not really too worried about this current four game stretch. I gave up the thought on Bedard a while ago, Hart’s capable of having bad games but he never really goes on big stretches of horrible games. So that’s always been the key in preventing them from the Bedard sweepstakes imo.

That's the exact spot I predicted the second they hired Torts. I knew he would get them to grit-grind their way to enough meaningless wins to stay out of the Bottom 5.

This situation is very bleak.

 

[GKJ]

You want the highest pick possible because you have the most leverage possible, really not a hard concept other than to be obtuse on purpose.

 

[tucson83]

It is impossible to have the worst record and not be top 3.

Really? Explain the redwings then in 2020 had the worst record and picked 4.

 

[deadhead]

The situation is bleak only if you think the only way to turn a team around is to get lucky in the lottery, like landing JVR and Patrick!

You can get a lot of top players in the #6-15 range. Yes, it's hard than having Makar fall into your lap, but it's still done on a regular basis. The odds are lower with the type of 1st rd picks you generally end up obtaining in trades, but add 2-3 extra 1sts to the FLA 2024 pick, and we can have 2 top 15 picks and 4 other 1st rd picks over the next two seasons to go with the young core we're developing.

Top scorers (PP/60, 5x5) and where they were drafted:
Tkachuk #6 (trade)
Tage Thompson #26 (trade)
Elias Pettersson #5
Jeff Skinner #7 (trade)
Nathan MacKinnon #1
David Pastrnak #25
Andrei Kuzmenko (UFA from KHL)
Mitch Marner #4
Jamie Benn #129
Brayden Point #79
Connor McDavid #1
Alex Tuch #18 (trade)
Sidney Crosby #1
Auston Matthews #1
William Nylander #8
Jared McCann #24 (ED)
Jason Robertson #39
Jack Hughes #1
Roope Hintz #49
Carter Verhaeghe #82 (trade)

6 of the 20 are no longer with their original team.

 

[Columbus Hockey Dad]

Really? Explain the redwings then in 2020 had the worst record and picked 4.

They changed the rules. Only the first two picks are in a lottery format. So, the worst team can only drop to #3 at worst.

 

[tucson83]

They changed the rules. Only the first two picks are in a lottery format. So, the worst team can only drop to #3 at worst.

So what is it you can’t watch a team that has no superstars?

 

[WIP CALLER]

So what is it you can’t watch a team that has no superstars?

A team with no stars tends to lose to teams with them. Just look at every cup winner besides St Louis in the cap era. I'd say it's pretty foolish to build a cup contender based on the one exception in ~20 years.

 

[tucson83]

A team with no stars tends to lose to teams with them. Just look at every cup winner besides St Louis in the cap era. I'd say it's pretty foolish to build a cup contender based on the one exception in ~20 years.

So what? If we win a cup this way you are not going to be happy?

 

[WIP CALLER]

So what? If we win a cup this way you are not going to be happy?

I would say the odds are heavily against winning a cup this way. I want the best odds of winning a cup and stars are the way to make that happen. Not exactly rocket science bro.

 

[tucson83]

I would say the odds are heavily against winning a cup this way. I want the best odds of winning a cup and stars are the way to make that happen. Not exactly rocket science bro.

So one cup isn’t enough for you got it

 

[Beef Invictus]

They've played 9 games since the TDL. Only 2 were against non-PO teams, Detroit and Buffalo.
4-4-1. GF/GA 29-31 but 22-17 at 5x5. xGF% 50.19%.

Tippett 15:57 xGF 59.18% xGFrel +13.73
Frost 14:37 xGF 51.02% xGFrel +1.12
Hayes 14:20 xGF 55.29% xGFrel +7.37 (a strong finish will make him easier to trade in June)
Farabee 14:11 xGF 48.74% xGFrel -2.07
Allison 13:39 xGF 46.61% xGFrel -8.08
Laughton 13:35 xGF 55.61% xGFrel +7.60
Lemieux 13:31 xGF 51.30% xGFrel +0.48
Foerster 13.28 xGF 47.88% xGFrel -1.94
Cates 13:14 xGF 50.91% xGFrel +1.01
JVR 12:43 xGF 51.21% xGFrel +1.37
Deslauriers 8:05 xGF 39.83% xGFrel -11.02
Laczynski 7:49 xGF 31.50% xGFrel -20.99

Provorov 18:07 xGF 47.76% xGFrel -4.09
TDA 17:05 xGF 58.38% xGFrel +12.34
York 16:22 xGF 50.25% xGFrel +0.09
Sanheim 15:55 xGF 40.63% xGFrel -13.43
Risto 15:16 xGF 37.69% xGFrel -16.98
Seeler 12:38 xGF 62.63% xGFrel +16.64

SSS, but TOI gives you a sense of who Torts is looking at closely down the stretch.
TDA is a shocker, is it sustainable?
Sanheim has been awful, but shows signs of breaking out of his funk the last couple games.

No, TDA is not sustainable.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So one cup isn’t enough for you got it

Oh, you would still be angry if they win more than one Cup?

 

[Beef Invictus]

The situation is bleak only if you think the only way to turn a team around is to get lucky in the lottery, like landing JVR and Patrick!

You can get a lot of top players in the #6-15 range. Yes, it's hard than having Makar fall into your lap, but it's still done on a regular basis. The odds are lower with the type of 1st rd picks you generally end up obtaining in trades, but add 2-3 extra 1sts to the FLA 2024 pick, and we can have 2 top 15 picks and 4 other 1st rd picks over the next two seasons to go with the young core we're developing.

Top scorers (PP/60, 5x5) and where they were drafted:
Tkachuk #6 (trade)
Tage Thompson #26 (trade)
Elias Pettersson #5
Jeff Skinner #7 (trade)
Nathan MacKinnon #1
David Pastrnak #25
Andrei Kuzmenko (UFA from KHL)
Mitch Marner #4
Jamie Benn #129
Brayden Point #79
Connor McDavid #1
Alex Tuch #18 (trade)
Sidney Crosby #1
Auston Matthews #1
William Nylander #8
Jared McCann #24 (ED)
Jason Robertson #39
Jack Hughes #1
Roope Hintz #49
Carter Verhaeghe #82 (trade)

6 of the 20 are no longer with their original team.

No, the situation is bleak. Full stop.

 

[tucson83]

Oh, you would still be angry if they win more than one Cup?

If they win one cup it’s good enough for me I don’t care how many they win

 

[Ghosts Beer]

You realize it's more than just the 7% chance vs. the 13% chance, right? If you're 7-8th worst in the league, maybe you get lucky and score with the 1st or 2nd pick. But just as likely is falling a spot or two to 9th or 10th. And even if you stay at 7 or 8, you lose out on the potential first line guys. It's a huge hit to this team...but hey, the kids are doing great in meaningless games for a 5-10 game stretch. WOW...so important!!!

Look at all of the injuries this team has had and they STILL can't touch the horror shows that are Columbus, San Jose, Chicago, and Anaheim.

So whatever, man. They're probably going to finish anywhere from 6 to 8. I accept it and am happy to see some of the team's younger players showing promise.

It's a really good draft. They'll end up with an unusually good prospect wherever they pick in the top 10.

 

[WIP CALLER]

So one cup isn’t enough for you got it

Who says they even win 1 cup with no stars? When the odds are 1 non star winning cup team in roughly 20 years and there's 32 teams in the league, what makes you think this organization will be the exception to the rule? Wouldn't you prefer them to have the best odds of 1 cup instead of hoping for a miracle?

 

[Pantokrator]

The situation is bleak only if you think the only way to turn a team around is to get lucky in the lottery, like landing JVR and Patrick!

You can get a lot of top players in the #6-15 range. Yes, it's hard than having Makar fall into your lap, but it's still done on a regular basis. The odds are lower with the type of 1st rd picks you generally end up obtaining in trades, but add 2-3 extra 1sts to the FLA 2024 pick, and we can have 2 top 15 picks and 4 other 1st rd picks over the next two seasons to go with the young core we're developing.

Not done on a regular basis with this team. We chose York over Caulfield.

We didn't win the lottery the year of JVR or else we could have had Patrick Kane.

The issue with Patrick was one of injury, not talent.

Connor Bedard stands to be the best player taken since Matthews or McDavid. So tanking this year for THAT player is better than tanking in a year where a player of such caliber is not available.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If they win one cup it’s good enough for me I don’t care how many they win

Oh good you've walked back your prior ridiculous "I would be angry if they win more than one" stance.

You're still opposed to making the best team possible for some reason.

 

[tucson83]

Who says they even win 1 cup with no stars? When the odds are 1 non star winning cup team in roughly 20 years and there's 32 teams in the league, what makes you think this organization will be the exception to the rule? Wouldn't you prefer them to have the best odds of 1 cup instead of hoping for a miracle?

Obviously you and if we don’t get bedard it’s the end of the world for you, to me it’s not

 

[Beef Invictus]

Who says they even win 1 cup with no stars? When the odds are 1 non star winning cup team in roughly 20 years and there's 32 teams in the league, what makes you think this organization will be the exception to the rule? Wouldn't you prefer them to have the best odds of 1 cup instead of hoping for a miracle?

If one presumes St Louis counts as winning without true stars, you're looking at a 1 in 600 chance.

That's what, .233%?

It gets a lot worse when you look at whole league history

 

[Beef Invictus]

Obviously you and if we don’t get bedard it’s the end of the world for you, to me it’s not

I would like to see you try to discuss anything without lying about what other people believe. Can you try that?

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

The Flyers right now have a roughly 7% chance to pick first.

The Sharks & Hawks, widely accepted as the two teams “tanking,” have 13 & 11% chances to pick first.

Yeah, blow up the team for a 13% chance to pick first instead of 7%. Great plan!

If this wasn't a Bedard-esque kind of draft abd this team wasn't constructed like a poorly assembled action figure made of broken parts, I'd probably agree. This draft is going to be great at the top part and this team sucks. Burn it down and do everything you can to get a better shot at 1-2. If you get there it jump starts the rebuild. If you don't you're looking at this type of season pretty much indefinitely.

 

[deadhead]

Kucherov and Point were not #1 picks.

Not done on a regular basis with this team. We chose York over Caulfield.

We didn't win the lottery the year of JVR or else we could have had Patrick Kane.

The issue with Patrick was one of injury, not talent.

Connor Bedard stands to be the best player taken since Matthews or McDavid. So tanking this year for THAT player is better than tanking in a year where a player of such caliber is not available.

Caufield is not a star, he's DeBrincat, good goal scorer who brings little else to the table.
York is a top 4 D-man and we got Brink as well.

Tanking for Bedard is nice, but the odds you get him are 5 to 10:1.
And even if the Flyers actively tanked this season, it would been difficult to finish better than 5th.
CBJ, San Jose, Chicago and Anaheim are really bad.
Arizona tried desperately to tank and they're tied with us at 6th.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Kucherov and Point were not #1 picks.

Caufield is not a star, he's DeBrincat, good goal scorer who brings little else to the table.
York is a top 4 D-man and we got Brink as well.

Tanking for Bedard is nice, but the odds you get him are 5 to 10:1.
And even if the Flyers actively tanked this season, it would been difficult to finish better than 5th.
CBJ, San Jose, Chicago and Anaheim are really bad.
Arizona tried desperately to tank and they're tied with us at 6th.

Now do the rest of TB's roster. Let me know if you find any prominent #1 or #2 picks there.

I don't know how you can stomach being so dishonest.