6th overall 2014 vs 10th overall 2013

[Tiranis]

I made a mistake on the ppg. But im a firm believer in the murders row effect. You see a guy playing tough minutes against opposing team scorers, I see a guy not playing tough minutes against opposing teams best defenders.

His even strength production is better than expected as well.

Perhaps i have underrated him, but i still see him as a longshot to be an impact second liner.

Given the ice-times of junior D, you're probably looking at them playing close to 1.5-1.75 times the ES ice-time of a 1st line forward. That means they would get a chance to get out there with both 1st and 2nd lines.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

forget nichushkin, let's talk about josh ho-sang. if our kids can't pull off one kovalev move or post up a chair each practice, keep them after and make them skate suicides.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

Given the ice-times of junior D, you're probably looking at them playing close to 1.5-1.75 times the ES ice-time of a 1st line forward. That means they would get a chance to get out there with both 1st and 2nd lines.

http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?sort=etoi_all

Actually they play around the same amount of TOI as 1st line forwards do. The top forwards in the CHL generally play 25-30 minutes a night, same as the top defensemen.

 

[Tiranis]

http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?sort=etoi_all

Actually they play around the same amount of TOI as 1st line forwards do. The top forwards in the CHL generally play 25-30 minutes a night, same as the top defensemen.

I'm seeing 57/100 being D there. (30/50 on the 3rd page.) Given 3 forwards and 2 defensemen, that's a pretty large skew towards defensemen.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

I'm seeing 57/100 being D there. (30/50 on the 3rd page.) Given 3 forwards and 2 defensemen, that's a pretty large skew towards defensemen.

It's no where near 1.5-1.75 time the amount of time though. I mean, yeah defensemen will play more on average, but the difference isn't that big. If the average top line forward plays, say 23-25 minutes in the CHL, then a defenseman would have to be playing ~40 minutes or more, which is obviously not the case.

In contrast in the NHL the entire top-50 in TOI are defensemen.

 

[arsmaster*]

It's no where near 1.5-1.75 time the amount of time though. I mean, yeah defensemen will play more on average, but the difference isn't that big. If the average top line forward plays, say 24-25 minutes in the CHL, then a defenseman would have to be playing ~40 minutes or more, which is obviously not the case.

In contrast in the NHL the entire top-50 in TOI are defensemen.

I don't know. The top blue liners km junior play tons.

Watch the chl playoffs for an even further skewed look. A team ive watched a lot over the last two years played their 3rd pair one shift a period.

So you then have their "top 4" having to split the rest of those 19 of so minutes per period.

Depending on the in game events of that particular game, I'd say the top 4 especially the top 1 or 2 are playing at least 35 minutes a game and if there is a star on the blueline closer to 40.

I don't have numbers to back it up, but it's pretty evident.

Watch a London knights, winter hawks or oil kings game. The stud dmen play more than the best forwards.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

I don't know. The top blue liners km junior play tons.

Watch the chl playoffs for an even further skewed look. A team ive watched a lot over the last two years played their 3rd pair one shift a period.

So you then have their "top 4" having to split the rest of those 19 of so minutes per period.

Depending on the in game events of that particular game, I'd say the top 4 especially the top 1 or 2 are playing at least 35 minutes a game and if there is a star on the blueline closer to 40.

I don't have numbers to back it up, but it's pretty evident.

Watch a London knights, winter hawks or oil kings game. The stud dmen play more than the best forwards.

All players in junior play more than their NHL equivalents do. But the highest average ice time for any defender was 31.1. That means for every game they play at 35, 40 minutes there's a game they play at 20, 25 minutes.

I'm not saying the defensemen don't play a lot, because they do. I'm saying that the amount of time the play relative to the forwards(who also see increased ice time in the playoffs) is no greater or even less than the disparity between forwards/defensemen in the NHL.

 

[deckercky]

McCann vs Horvat is an interesting comparison, since they're similar style players who basically had opposite development in their draft years.

Horvat was a late first round draft pick who had a great end of the year then an incredible playoffs and became a late riser and a top 10 pick.

McCann was a consensus top 10 pick who faltered a bit as the year went on, and slid down as a late faller to become a late first round pick.

McCann would have to show a big improvement offensively next year like Horvat did to be considered as good of a prospect as Horvat IMO, but at the time of drafting, they probably weren't far from each other (depends on how you rank risers vs fallers IMO).

 

[Dr Awesome]

Jake is not on the same level as Val. But I hope that he will be. As boring as it sounds only time will tell.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

I took the liberty of calculating the average ice time of the top-90 forwards and top-60 defensemen in the CHL.

Top-90 forward average: 23.8
Top-60 defensemen average: 25.7

A difference of 1.08x, no where near 1.5-1.75(or 1.4).

Now, it's possible I made an error in calculation, but the numbers seem to make sense to me.