Post-Game Talk: #67: Flyers at Panthers, Saturday, March 12, 2016

[Curufinwe]

I'm the biggest Mason fan alive, but he's probably the worst shoot out goalie I've ever seen

So you only started watching the Flyers this season?

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...t=shootoutSavePctg&aggregate=1&teamId=4&pos=G

You'll have to select Philadelphia under TEAM to see the list of Flyers starters with worse SO SV% than Mason, even after last night, so I'll just list them.

Emery, Boucher, Biron, Bob, Bryz and Esche.

 

[Random Forest]

No, your claim that Mason is much worse than the shooters is obviously false.

I never claimed that the shooters were "much" better than Mason. Here are my two claims:

1) Historically, the Flyers shooters have been much better than their goaltenders.

2) During Mason's tenure, Flyers shooters have pulled their weight more than Mason.


Both those statements are born out by fact.

No they're not. Look at the last shootout against Montreal. Neuvirth was in net but the point is the same. The Flyers scored on their first attempt and Neuvirth saved the first two SO attempts. If Giroux had scored on the Flyers second attempt, they win 2-0 and Neuvirth gets a .1000 SV%.

But Giroux misses, and Montreal score on their third attempt. If Simmonds scores they win 2-1 and Neuvirth gets a .667 SV%.

But he doesn't. Then Eller misses the nit, and if Voracek scores they win 2-1 and Neuvirth gets a .750 SV%.

But he doesn't. And so Byron scores the winner and Neuvirth ends up with a .600 SV%.

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20152016/SO020872.HTM

Lol, that makes no sense. We're talking about aggregate save percentages, not game-to-game save percentages. The fact that Simmonds or Giroux or Voracek misses in a given game has no bearing on what a goaltender's save percentage is in the aggregate.

I expect our goaltender to stop roughly every two of three shots. Sure, if Giroux scores against Montreal, then Neuvirth has a 1.000% against Montreal, but I would still expect him to miss the next shot he faced on average. It doesn't matter that the Montreal game was over. He would have just missed the next one he faced on average. You don't appear to understand how statistics work.


EDIT: I'll put it this way, if Team A's shooters NEVER scored a goal, I would still expect for Team A's goaltender to stop roughly 2 of every 3 attempts. The rate of success of his shooters has no effect on the goaltender's performance.

 

[Rebels57]

I never claimed that the shooters were "much" better than Mason. Here are my two claims:

1) Historically, the Flyers shooters have been much better than their goaltenders.

2) During Mason's tenure, Flyers shooters have pulled their weight more than Mason.


Both those statements are born out by fact.


Lol, that makes no sense. We're talking about aggregate save percentages, not game-to-game save percentages. The fact that Simmonds or Giroux or Voracek misses in a given game has no bearing on what a goaltender's save percentage is in the aggregate.

I expect our goaltender to stop roughly every two of three shots. Sure, if Giroux scores against Montreal, then Neuvirth has a 1.000% against Montreal, but I would still expect him to miss the next shot he faced on average. It doesn't matter that the Montreal game was over. He would have just missed the next one he faced on average. You don't appear to understand how statistics work.


EDIT: I'll put it this way, if Team A's shooters NEVER scored a goal, I would still expect for Team A's goaltender to stop roughly 2 of every 3 attempts. The rate of success of his shooters has no effect on the goaltender's performance.

You could argue that the shooters struggles to score does effect the goaltender, and vice versa. Psychological impact has to be considered, I.E. the shooters may feel extra pressure to score when they aren't confident that their goalie will make the save and the goalie may feel extra pressure to make the save when he's not confident the shooters will score for him. It's a vicious circle of failure. Just a thought.

 

[Wellwood]

Being paired with Manning had nothing to do with how badly Gudas played the 3rd goal against. He slid down on his stomach way too early and completely out of the play. The better play there is to go down on 1 knee and reach out towards the shooter with your stick. You give yourself two different methods by which you can block the shot (body or stick), and if he hesitates you can recover and make another attempt to block it.

He also lost a race to the net on Florida's 4th goal.

He was great in Tampa and I really like him overall, but he cost us two goals there.

I agree that Gudas played that terribly, but IMO Bellemare deserves most of the blame for that 3rd goal

 

[Flyerfan4life]

You could argue that the shooters struggles to score does effect the goaltender, and vice versa. Psychological impact has to be considered, I.E. the shooters may feel extra pressure to score when they aren't confident that their goalie will make the save and the goalie may feel extra pressure to make the save when he's not confident the shooters will score for him. It's a vicious circle of failure. Just a thought.

at this point theres no question this is exactly were the Flyers are mentally in the SO..

its a auto loss, and EVERYONE knows it...

 

[Hiesenberg]

at this point theres no question this is exactly were the Flyers are mentally in the SO..

its a auto loss, and EVERYONE knows it...

I agree 100%. The players hate it because they feel its a loss, its crippling. They go into the games thinking they can beat anybody, if it gets to OT, its flipped

 

[Striiker]

This seems pretty simple. Both are a problem.

Shooters need to score more, goalies need to stop more. Neither are good enough.

 

[Curufinwe]

Lol, that makes no sense. We're talking about aggregate save percentages, not game-to-game save percentages. The fact that Simmonds or Giroux or Voracek misses in a given game has no bearing on what a goaltender's save percentage is in the aggregate.

I expect our goaltender to stop roughly every two of three shots. Sure, if Giroux scores against Montreal, then Neuvirth has a 1.000% against Montreal, but I would still expect him to miss the next shot he faced on average. It doesn't matter that the Montreal game was over. He would have just missed the next one he faced on average. You don't appear to understand how statistics work.

Aggregate save percentages are the aggregate of game to game save percentages. And you claim I don't know how statistics work. The dozens of times Flyers shooters have had the chance to win a game on the 3rd shot or later but missed, allowing the other team to get another shot that they converted on, add up.

It's not coincidence that the SO SV% of Mason and Schneider have fallen off significantly when they moved to teams who have shooters that are near the bottom of the league.

 

[joez86]

Aggregate save percentages are the aggregate of game to game save percentages. And you claim I don't know how statistics work. The dozens of times Flyers shooters have had the chance to win a game on the 3rd shot or later but missed, allowing the other team to get another shot that they converted on, add up.

It's not coincidence that the SO SV% of Mason and Schneider have fallen off significantly when they moved to teams who have shooters that are near the bottom of the league.

Agreed.

The shooters and goalies have both been bad, but the shooters need to step up moreso than the goalies.

 

[Random Forest]

Aggregate save percentages are the aggregate of game to game save percentages. And you claim I don't know how statistics work.

No, it's very much not the aggregate of game-to-game save percentages. It's the aggregate of all attempts a goaltender faces, not games.

For illustration, consider the following series of games for a goaltender:

Game 1: 11 round shootout, 6 saves, 5 goals, .5 sv%
Game 2: 4 round shootout, 4 saves, 0 goals, 1.000 sv%

This goaltender's save percentage would be .666. Under your bizarre method of sv% calculation, his save percentage would be .750. This is obviously not the case.

The dozens of times Flyers shooters have had the chance to win a game on the 3rd shot or later but missed, allowing the other team to get another shot that they converted on, add up.

This makes no difference on a goaltender's career save percentage. None.

This is very basic math and statistics, and you're absolutely wrong here. Not sure what else to tell you.

Aside from the suggestion above regarding the possible psychological component, a goaltender's save percentage is not influenced by the performance of his shooters. This is not a matter of opinion-- it's a mathematical property of independent events.

 

[1865]

I told you I should have stayed.