Sportsnet: 6 ways Senators could surprise critics in all-Canadian division

[AchtzehnBaby]

6 ways Senators could surprise critics in all-Canadian division

Expectations are lower than low

With reason, hockey analysts uniformly have Ottawa in the basement of this Canadian Division. And it will take a small miracle to jump up a spot or two.

When you’ve been at or near the bottom of the standings for three straight seasons, you find motivation where you can. Nobody respects the Senators' talent level. They dismiss the roster (though never publicly). Often throw backup goalies against them.

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[StoicSensFan]

We're bringing pesky back

 

[aragorn]

One way is that the stinking Leafs will suck, while they might have a decent regular season I expect them to get knocked out of the playoffs again because they are still way too soft & easy to push around. Mathews is like Yashin who will get all upset in the playoffs when guys are hanging off him & cry, while Marner, Reilly & Nylander will disappear the second a game turns ugly or they take a hard hit.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Headline writers need to start reading the article before slapping on the hed. This is more of a "What would have to happen for the Sens to be competitive?" and the "six ways" can boil down to "Everyone needs to be better and we need some lucky breaks too."

 

[SENATOR]

Outside of the big four on Leafs roster, the puck possession ability for the rest of the group drops off significantly. With hockey pensioners, who can not keep up anymore to below average players. I am not a big fan of Nylander either. So in reality, they have an elite line and a half. You need them to play defence and to be on their heels in their defensive zone all the time. And that's how you win hockey games, when your best players match against their best players, who is better in cycling the puck and who has the upper hand in the offensive zone time possession. The rest of the Canadian teams are not great either.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

We're bringing pesky back

Them other boys don't know how to act

 

[Sun God Nika]

Honestly I’m fine with seeing production from our young guys and being dead last in the division I won’t care much if we win games and hurt our draft position . Last year was the year where we had to lose games and it worked out

 

[Sun God Nika]

One way is that the stinking Leafs will suck, while they might have a decent regular season I expect them to get knocked out of the playoffs again because they are still way too soft & easy to push around. Mathews is like Yashin who will get all upset in the playoffs when guys are hanging off him & cry, while Marner, Reilly & Nylander will disappear the second a game turns ugly or they take a hard hit.

Matthews is not a soft player at all

 

[aragorn]

Matthews is not a soft player at all

Yea he is, he doesn't like it when it gets rough in the playoffs, make it rough on him & he disappears.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Headline writers need to start reading the article before slapping on the hed. This is more of a "What would have to happen for the Sens to be competitive?" and the "six ways" can boil down to "Everyone needs to be better and we need some lucky breaks too."

Lol it certainly comes off as a filler article. What do the Sens need to do to be better? Well...they need to be...better...and get some help.

 

[jhutter]

Yea he is, he doesn't like it when it gets rough in the playoffs, make it rough on him & he disappears.

Are we talking about the same 5 goals in 7 playoff games in 2018/2019 and 6 points in 5 playoff games 2019/2020 Auston Matthews?

 

[JD1]

Are we talking about the same 5 goals in 7 playoff games in 2018/2019 and 6 points in 5 playoff games 2019/2020 Auston Matthews?

Nope. We're talking about the guy that Leaf fans want to include in generational discussions yet he still hasn't managed to lead his team to a playoff series win.

 

[ijif]

Nope. We're talking about the guy that Leaf fans want to include in generational discussions yet he still hasn't managed to lead his team to a playoff series win.

I fail to see much of a connection between the contested premise that Matthews is soft in the playoffs and some Leaf fans thinking Matthews is generational.

 

[DaveMatthew]

If Matt Murray can play like he did in 18/19, we can absolutely surprise a lot of people.

 

[jhutter]

Nope. We're talking about the guy that Leaf fans want to include in generational discussions yet he still hasn't managed to lead his team to a playoff series win.

Aragorn said that he "disappears" in the playoffs. I noted that he scored 5 goals in 7 games and 6 points in 5 games in recent playoff series. I have nothing to comment on regarding whether or not he's "generational".

Connor McDavid is "generational" and he's been in the playoffs in two out of five seasons, one of which was a play in.

 

[Crosside]

I think people under evaluaded us. Our d is better with no more Hainsey , Boro. Wolanin in to start the year gonna help. At front we replace Names , Ennis by Dadonov , Galchy . Plus if Stutzle is in fire and make the team gonna hepl for pp. Last year we play well but our defense or Andy let a bad goal per game . With Murray and Hog or Dac in net , It s gonna help.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Aragorn said that he "disappears" in the playoffs. I noted that he scored 5 goals in 7 games and 6 points in 5 games in recent playoff series. I have nothing to comment on regarding whether or not he's "generational".

Looking at playoff numbers requires some nuance. I don't think Matthews has been that bad in the postseason. He's had some very good games. But he also hasn't stepped up when his team needed him most.

In series deciding games in his 4 years, Matthews has 0 goals, 1 assist and is a -2. In the last two years, he has 0 points an is a -4. So he certainly hasn't delivered when the pressure has been at it's peak.\

The playoffs aren't just about how much you produce, it's when you produce.

 

[jhutter]

Looking at playoff numbers requires some nuance. I don't think Matthews has been that bad in the postseason. He's had some very good games. But he also hasn't stepped up when his team needed him most.

In series deciding games in his 4 years, Matthews has 0 goals, 1 assist and is a -2. In the last two years, he has 0 points an is a -4. So he certainly hasn't delivered when the pressure has been at it's peak.\

The playoffs aren't just about how much you produce, it's when you produce.

I don't disagree with you at all, but I think it's very difficult to claim that he "disappears in the playoffs" when you take a look at his stats. If Aragorn had said what you just stated, I would've agreed.

 

[stempniaksen]

Leafs won't have the Bruins or Lightning to deal with. I know this is a "Sens surprise thread" and that any positive Leafs talk is frowned upon around here, but that's a team looking like they could actually make a run this season with an improved back end (even though I don't love Brodie) and a clearer path to success (none of the Canadian team are particularly scary, imo).

On that same note, the bottom of this new Canadian division will be better than what the Sens competed against last year, but the top end is so much worse as well. The Sens probably have another year at the bottom of this division, but if the key players stay healthy and Murray plays at his top end they could just as easily sneak into 3rd or 4th. I'm really not impressed with anyone in this division outside of the regular season Leafs ( who we've established are a different team come playoff time).

 

[BankStreetParade]

Really young teams are easily the toughest to project. There is simply very little in the way of a track record for the majority of the roster and so how could any analyst say, with certainty, what the Senators could achieve this season?

Yeah, there's a whole lot of "what ifs?" involved in a scenario where the Sens show better than people expected but also rosters don't become good until they suddenly are. You know what I mean? Colin White could be a 25p guy or a 50p guy this year...Murray could rock an .899sv% or a .929sv%...Chabot could be an above average defenseman or have a Norris-calibre season. The fact that neither of those scenarios, for each player, is a surprise tells you everything you need to know about projecting this roster.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

I wouldn't be surprised if we win the division.

 

[RaMai]

Leafs won't have the Bruins or Lightning to deal with. I know this is a "Sens surprise thread" and that any positive Leafs talk is frowned upon around here, but that's a team looking like they could actually make a run this season with an improved back end (even though I don't love Brodie) and a clearer path to success (none of the Canadian team are particularly scary, imo).

On that same note, the bottom of this new Canadian division will be better than what the Sens competed against last year, but the top end is so much worse as well. The Sens probably have another year at the bottom of this division, but if the key players stay healthy and Murray plays at his top end they could just as easily sneak into 3rd or 4th. I'm really not impressed with anyone in this division outside of the regular season Leafs ( who we've established are a different team come playoff time).

I'm not disagreeing with you, but without looking at stats it seems to me the last few years the Sens seemed to be close in all games vs the Leafs...while other "top-teams" beat the Sens with Backup goalie and rest days for their stars.
A lot of things happen in the head, big problem for the Leafs for years...

I'm not even sure why I type this...camp can not open soon enough

 

[DrEasy]

Headline writers need to start reading the article before slapping on the hed. This is more of a "What would have to happen for the Sens to be competitive?" and the "six ways" can boil down to "Everyone needs to be better and we need some lucky breaks too."

But that wouldn't be click-baity enough to be read and even warrant a new thread here! Even I fell for it!

 

[jhutter]

Really young teams are easily the toughest to project. There is simply very little in the way of a track record for the majority of the roster and so how could any analyst say, with certainty, what the Senators could achieve this season?

Yeah, there's a whole lot of "what ifs?" involved in a scenario where the Sens show better than people expected but also rosters don't become good until they suddenly are. You know what I mean? Colin White could be a 25p guy or a 50p guy this year...Murray could rock an .899sv% or a .929sv%...Chabot could be an above average defenseman or have a Norris-calibre season. The fact that neither of those scenarios, for each player, is a surprise tells you everything you need to know about projecting this roster.

Exactly. And a lot of the models struggle to value rookies.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

Exactly. And a lot of the models struggle to value rookies.

I think that most models input them as "replacement level"