GBU #5 Sabres-Caps: Concepts and Principles

[stealth1]

I did not expect success this year as defense and goaltending were not addressed. What is bothering me is Dahlin looks like Colaiacovo out there, making bad passes, slow skating, loses his man in the dzone and it ends with the cataclysm yesterday of him 6 inches from Ullmark and directly resulting in a goal. Other things bothering me are Eichel and his general disinterest in the game, sloppy passes, trying to take on three guys again, no foot speed, missing the net with most shots and the others are hitting the goalie in the crest. I was hoping Staal would bring more, Eakin I don't even know if he is in the lineup half the time.

We are the best fans but after a decade of rinse and repeat shit is getting old. But for whatever reason, I keep coming back.

I think a lot of it is due to no preseason. They have looked good the last few games. I think this week they will win a few in a row.

 

[SundherDome]

I think a lot of it is due to no preseason. They have looked good the last few games. I think this week they will win a few in a row.

We will just agree to disagree

 

[sabremike]

You’d certainly like to see it, but regression doesn’t *need* to happen at any point. We aren’t playing a 1000 game season

Are you actually saying that hockey is a sport and not a giant math problem???

 

[joshjull]

You’d certainly like to see it, but regression doesn’t *need* to happen at any point. We aren’t playing a 1000 game season

Logic can be applied as well. Unless you imagine Hall, Jack and Skinner never scoring 5v5 this year.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

The 300 day excuse is garbage. They are professional athletes. Also, Washington looks fine and they played only 10 days in the play in and playoffs.

How much prep time did the teams get before last years post season games?

Does Washington or any of the non playoff teams (or any team?) have half of their forward group consisting of new faces on top of the lack of pre season?

Two of our top 3 players added weight and haven't looked like their usual selves yet (at least I think Eichel added some more weight, I know Dahlin added a decent amount).

Still haven't looked that bad overall and have pretty much been in every game.

 

[EmeraldCitySabre]

Eichel, Hall, and Skinner have 1 goal combined, but imo, the team has played pretty well overall so far. When those guys get going, and they will, the wins will start to pile up.........................hopefully.

 

[valet]

You’d certainly like to see it, but regression doesn’t *need* to happen at any point. We aren’t playing a 1000 game season

that's actually not a good statistical argument. a good central limit theorem n is 30. we're playing well over 30 games this year

 

[tsujimoto74]

Gallant please?

The system seems to be working. The PDO isn't. We have the shooting talent for half of that issue to self-correct, but our goalies (surprise!) are a problem.

 

[SundherDome]

How much prep time did the teams get before last years post season games?

Does Washington or any of the non playoff teams (or any team?) have half of their forward group consisting of new faces on top of the lack of pre season?

Two of our top 3 players added weight and haven't looked like their usual selves yet (at least I think Eichel added some more weight, I know Dahlin added a decent amount).

Still haven't looked that bad overall and have pretty much been in every game.

I don't get what you are trying to get out of the first part.
Second point is on the GM past and present. Continuing to have a lot of new faces is never good. They have six new faces in the lineup as of last night, once Okposo is back that will move down to 5 and none on defense or in goal. Pittsburgh has 5, Montreal has 5, Toronto has 5, Arizona has 5 and lost Hall.
Bringing back Larsson instead of Eakin keeps continuity, Girgensons being out probably keeps Reider out. The point is, teams have and are doing it.

No idea who told Eichel he needed to add weight but he was playing just fine at last years weight. Dahlin I could see adding weight as he gets pushed around but now at the cost of being the Bogosion ... Yikes

We have been in most games, which is good, but looking at the goaltending we have faced we should have absolutely tied and forced OT in some of them with how aggressive we are.

This team just isn't driven enough, isn't coached well enough and wasn't built properly.

 

[jc17]

You’d certainly like to see it, but regression doesn’t *need* to happen at any point. We aren’t playing a 1000 game season

But they are taking hundreds of shots

 

[Chainshot]

Good:

VST connected for a goal.
Lots of chances - VO, Hall, Skinner, Eichel... more

Bad:

Dahlin’s confidence and engagement in the defensive zone are both lacking.
Not finishing those chances. Again, would rather they be getting them than not.

Ugly:

Their record is not looking good even when they have played well in most of the games.
Losing to this undermanned of a Caps team.
Stationary PP...again. No rotation, no moving to openings, no making anyone on the PK shift.

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

View attachment 387227

Yeah...

bro where tf do you get all these lmao

 

[enthusiast]

Logic can be applied as well. Unless you imagine Hall, Jack and Skinner never scoring 5v5 this year.

Yeah for sure, just that 55 games or whatever is more than enough to have an “unlucky” streak

 

[enthusiast]

that's actually not a good statistical argument. a good central limit theorem n is 30. we're playing well over 30 games this year

I’m curious at your angle here, could you expound

e: I get now what you’re after but I don’t agree that it’s relevant here given the nature of the data that’s yet to be created and doesn’t grant predictive ness here with any sort of oomph really

 

[Tage2Tuch]

Eichel is a malcontent. He'll be phenomenal elsewhere in a year or two. In the meantime, I can't even look at his face.

Same with the Sabres in general. I wish they'd just move at this point. You cannot change this kind of culture. At least when the Bills were shitty during the drought, they also were fun a lot of the time. There is nothing fun about the Sabres. They belong in Vegas or something. Get these assholes in this organization out of my life.

considering on paper we have the best team with where our players are development wise easily in over a decade and have played two cup contenders and it will remain that way through six games and only these two cup contenders, yet somehow managed to be in every single game until the final minute, I don’t get this attitude...yet. Talk to me in a few weeks. Don’t give up already

 

[Bendium]

A lot of posters have mentioned not having a pre-season or as long of a training camp as a reason for the lack of finish, and with it lack of winning. Hoggwash! Every team had to deal with the same thing, and half of them are winning. We have a below average defense corps and one of the worst goaltending situations in the league. We are going to lose alot of games.

 

[valet]

I’m curious at your angle here, could you expound

e: I get now what you’re after but I don’t agree that it’s relevant here given the nature of the data that’s yet to be created and doesn’t grant predictive ness here with any sort of oomph really

It’s absolutely relevant. Your argument relies on a 1000 game sample size as a benchmark for our top players performance to regress toward their individual means. Not only does that not make sense in accordance with previous seasons, it’s also just wrong by common statistical convention, I.e. ‘the magic number’ for probability distributions to revert to the ‘normal’ distribution (bell curve) n=30

our top guys already have well established statistical probability distributions for how they typically perform. Common statistical convention says that it should only take a sample size of 30 or so for their production to closely resemble their career production. 1000 games would be even better for a standard dev perspective assuming players never aged, but yeah, it doesn’t take that many games for the sample (individual season) to resemble the population (career)

 

[Tage2Tuch]

That is not true

Why Don’t you show evidence of this?

 

[Tage2Tuch]

A lot of posters have mentioned not having a pre-season or as long of a training camp as a reason for the lack of finish, and with it lack of winning. Hoggwash! Every team had to deal with the same thing, and half of them are winning. We have a below average defense corps and one of the worst goaltending situations in the league. We are going to lose alot of games.

actually, no only seven teams had to go through the no preseason combined with having not played hockey in over 300 day which is unheard of. Also every other team has gotten to play someone who wasn’t a cup contender as well. We through even next game have played two divisional favourites and yet empty netters have made the scores seem worse. Easily could be 3-2 right now. And again were in every...single....one

 

[sabresEH]

I've seen zero reason so far not to think this is the same bad team we've had for the last 6 years.

One day we'll luck into good management again like the Bills. Just don't know when that will be. Maybe 15 more years, going by experience.

Really?! No reason. We’re actually committed to team defence and the forwards are back checking. I haven’t seen that in years from this team.

The past Sabres teams were unwatchable. I literally had to stop watching because they were bad and they made no effort. This year the effort has been there. Guys have bought in seemingly, just need to stop squeezing the sticks so tight.

Why does every other team that didn't make the playoffs have a better record than the Sabres? Why is it that the only team with as bad a record as the Sabres one that did make the playoffs?

We’ve played 5 games all of which are against the top 2 teams in the division coming in. That could be a reason .

At some point we’ll have to start beating the top teams but it hasn’t been as bad as this board makes it seem.

 

[sabremike]

A lot of posters have mentioned not having a pre-season or as long of a training camp as a reason for the lack of finish, and with it lack of winning. Hoggwash! Every team had to deal with the same thing, and half of them are winning. We have a below average defense corps and one of the worst goaltending situations in the league. We are going to lose alot of games.

We are one of 7 teams that had a 10 month layoff instead of at least 6 or 7.

 

[enthusiast]

It’s absolutely relevant. Your argument relies on a 1000 game sample size as a benchmark for our top players performance to regress toward their individual means. Not only does that not make sense in accordance with previous seasons, it’s also just wrong by common statistical convention, I.e. ‘the magic number’ for probability distributions to revert to the ‘normal’ distribution (bell curve) n=30

our top guys already have well established statistical probability distributions for how they typically perform. Common statistical convention says that it should only take a sample size of 30 or so for their production to closely resemble their career production. 1000 games would be even better for a standard dev perspective assuming players never aged, but yeah, it doesn’t take that many games for the sample (individual season) to resemble the population (career)

You’ll find I didn’t actually say that

and to the second paragraph, I don’t think that’s proper usage here. It’s cart before the horse, you can obviously have a string of 30 points that differ wildly from the previous set even without accounting for new variables. While it’s a sufficient number to project forward that isn’t the same property as guaranteeing every sample of 30 moving forward

 

[valet]

You’ll find I didn’t actually say that

and to the second paragraph, I don’t think that’s proper usage here. It’s cart before the horse, you can obviously have a string of 30 points that differ wildly from the previous set even without accounting for new variables. While it’s a sufficient number to project forward that isn’t the same property as guaranteeing every sample of 30 moving forward

I mean, there’s no such thing as a guarantee in statistics, that’s why we produce confidence intervals and look at values like r-squared in reference to linear regressions. So yeah, of course you could have a 30 game sample that doesn’t resemble the population, but the odds of this happening are excessively low and it kind of just seems like you’re arguing in bad faith here

 

[enthusiast]

E:nm

 

[SundherDome]

Why Don’t you show evidence of this?

Gladly

Game one with 1:03 left on the clock they were down by two. (Not in it)
Game two with 1:00 left on the clock they were down by one (in it)
Game three with 1:11 left on the clock they were up by 5 (in it)
Game four with 1:42 left on the clock, they were down by 3 (not in it)
Game five with 1:00 left on the clock they were tied (in it)

So by the fact based assessments stated above, the Sabres, were in fact, NOT in every game in the last minute.