Prospect Info: 41OA: Trey Augustine

[Our Lady Peace]

Everything right now is pointing to this guy being one of the top rising goalie prospects in the world.

 

[DamonDRW]

This is how it happens with goalies. You draft some in the first round and then someone from the later rounds emerges as the best and you are set for 10+ years.

Hoping for Trey to become one for us.

 

[Gniwder]

This is how it happens with goalies. You draft some in the first round and then someone from the later rounds emerges as the best and you are set for 10+ years.

Hoping for Trey to become one for us.

Which is why I think drafting a goalie in the first round is a bad idea.

 

[Crunchy]

This is how it happens with goalies. You draft some in the first round and then someone from the later rounds emerges as the best and you are set for 10+ years.

Hoping for Trey to become one for us.

I mean Augustine was taken with the 9th pick of the 2nd round, a premium draft pick. Both of our goalie prospects, the best we've had in a while, were selected with premium draft picks, not really "later rounds" picks.

 

[Sparty]

I mean Augustine was taken with the 9th pick of the 2nd round, a premium draft pick. Both of our goalie prospects, the best we've had in a while, were selected with premium draft picks, not really "later rounds" picks.

Yup. I bet if Cossa wasn't struggling like he had, we probably don't make this pick and don't draft a goalie as early as we did. Just glad it worked out like it did, they both look like talented prospects now.

 

[Crunchy]

Yup. I bet if Cossa wasn't struggling like he had, we probably don't make this pick and don't draft a goalie as early as we did. Just glad it worked out like it did, they both look like talented prospects now.

Hard to say, but I wouldn't classify playing his d+2 season in the ECHL as struggling. More like fanbase uncertainty stemming from the lack of precedence for playing a premium goalie prospect in the ECHL.

 

[Ricelund]

Yup. I bet if Cossa wasn't struggling like he had, we probably don't make this pick and don't draft a goalie as early as we did. Just glad it worked out like it did, they both look like talented prospects now.

Hard to say, but I wouldn't classify playing his d+2 season in the ECHL as struggling. More like fanbase uncertainty stemming from the lack of precedence for playing a premium goalie prospect in the ECHL.

I'm old enough to remember everyone writing Cossa off because he had a bad showing in the prospects tournament.

 

[Sparty]

Hard to say, but I wouldn't classify playing his d+2 season in the ECHL as struggling. More like fanbase uncertainty stemming from the lack of precedence for playing a premium goalie prospect in the ECHL.

Yeah we can split hairs about terminology, but I still don't think they take a goalie so early if they had like Wallstedt in the AHL already and were more comfortable with what they had seen thus far. Props to Cossa for making the strides he has (and I'm done taking this off topic)

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I mean Augustine was taken with the 9th pick of the 2nd round, a premium draft pick. Both of our goalie prospects, the best we've had in a while, were selected with premium draft picks, not really "later rounds" picks.

Yeah to me, if Cossa and/or Augustine pan out (and I think they’re both on the right track), that’s actually a big win for the folks who advocate drafting goaltenders early. Taking goalies with top 50 picks in consecutive years was a big investment from Yzerman.

 

[RabidBadger]

I appreciated Trey's performance last night as a Wings prospect, but I wasn't cool with him walking penis-first into our house and taking the B1g season title.

If you've been following him this year you have to be happy with the progress: he started out decent, but shaky at times. The second half of the season he's been able to put the team on his back and get some big wins.

Sparty will be an interesting team to watch in the playoffs this year.

 

[Konnan511]

I hope he stays in college for at least another year and the Wings don't pull him out early. I don't want another Filip Larsson situation.

 

[Gniwder]

Hard to say, but I wouldn't classify playing his d+2 season in the ECHL as struggling. More like fanbase uncertainty stemming from the lack of precedence for playing a premium goalie prospect in the ECHL.

I did point out that Kolzig spent some time in the ECHL, as did Holtby, Quick, Tim Thomas, and Vokoun. ECHL is not the death knell of a goalie's career, there's fewer AHL roster spots for goalies than skaters.

Goalies are hard to predict and take a long time to mature. Wallstedt looked like crap in his debut, no reason to rush Augustine or Cossa.

 

[Cake Eater]

I hope he stays in college for at least another year and the Wings don't pull him out early. I don't want another Filip Larsson situation.

Larsson turned pro after his D+3 season.

 

[Frk It]

I hope he stays in college for at least another year and the Wings don't pull him out early. I don't want another Filip Larsson situation.

Coulda been that… or it coulda been the 10 groin injuries.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

There is zero reason to rush this kid. What the hell is with people these days?

 

[Crunchy]

1 more season in college and then sign him. I always get nervous with good college prospects going past 2 years.

1 more season in college and then sign him. I always get nervous with good college prospects going past 2 years.

But I guess if he's a Michigan guy and the team has confidence, going to 3 years would be beneficial.

 

[Cake Eater]

Michigan State fans: No need to rush him, give him three years

Michigan fans: Sign this kid ASAP and get him playing some pro hockey

 

[Gniwder]

I mean Augustine was taken with the 9th pick of the 2nd round, a premium draft pick. Both of our goalie prospects, the best we've had in a while, were selected with premium draft picks, not really "later rounds" picks.

Source: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

There's a big drop off in success rate between first and second round,

You can see the drop off between where Cossa was picked (#15) and Augustine (#41).

The only probability stats I can find for different positions is dated (pre 2000), but it states that the drop off for D and F is greater than the drop off for goalies. Take that with a grain of salt because that was pre-internet (at least public use with hockey stats and what not):

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

But basically, I'm just trying to back up my personal feeling that goalies shouldn't be drafted in the first round. I'm OK with the second round, I'd rather have a goalie prospect than Cleveland. Heck, I would've taken another goalie over Cleveland. Clara seems to be doing decent, and he meets Stevie's height criteria.

Imagine how happy Bench would be if we had more goalie prospects.

 

[Cake Eater]

View attachment 830410
Source: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

There's a big drop off in success rate between first and second round,
View attachment 830421

You can see the drop off between where Cossa was picked (#15) and Augustine (#41).

The only probability stats I can find for different positions is dated (pre 2000), but it states that the drop off for D and F is greater than the drop off for goalies. Take that with a grain of salt because that was pre-internet (at least public use with hockey stats and what not):

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

But basically, I'm just trying to back up my personal feeling that goalies shouldn't be drafted in the first round. I'm OK with the second round, I'd rather have a goalie prospect than Cleveland. Heck, I would've taken another goalie over Cleveland. Clara seems to be doing decent, and he meets Stevie's height criteria.

Imagine how happy Bench would be if we had more goalie prospects.

Not really fair to goalies who are expected to play 40-55 games of an 82 game season.

 

[jaster]

Sign this kid ASAP and get him playing some pro hockey.

 

[Gniwder]

Not really fair to goalies who are expected to play 40-55 games of an 82 game season.

That's true for the breakdown by position, but I said that's dated data anyways. Plus if you look at that link, you'll see very little drop off for goalies between rounds 1 and 2, and those are based on the same criteria.

Also, the Dobber plots are not broken down by position.

I will say that goalies should have a criteria that's half of skaters if we're talking about number of games. Plus, backup goalies get even fewer games, but I still consider them to have value. Lyon's only got 69 games so far....

But anyways, I'm just trying to throw some data up for discussion, instead of just saying I hate picking goalies in the first round.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Sign this kid ASAP and get him playing some pro hockey.

Please, please, please don't

 

[jaster]

Please, please, please don't

DO IT

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Rushing goalies almost never works out well.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

If I were Trey I would simply consider transferring to a university that is closer to his home of South Lyon and boasts the more compelling of the two Rick’s American Cafes.