I actually think this speaks to an even bigger issue. I think sports in general are seeing an overall decline. Cable cutters are hurting tv viewership. Millennials aren’t interested in attending expensive and time consuming games with so many other cheaper entertainment options (i.e. Netflix).
It’s the way the wind is blowing in all of Canada. There’s a shift in demographics and I see soccer and basketball rising as years go by. I could probably write a newspaper article on what I think about this subject, but I’ll spare everyone tonight.
I certainly agree with your first point. Well, at least the expensive part of it. I fall into the tail-end of that segment (millennial), and even as a no-kids person with a good job, etc. I couldn't justify the insane costs of going to games regularily. I feel like the price of NHL tickets has inflated so astronomically in the last 15 years. I just checked and the cheapest (non-secondary market) ticket for the next Oilers home game is $65. Thats 3x what you paid at the beginning of this century.
Meanwhile, real incomes in comparison to cost of living (which is particularly troubling in Toronto and Vancouver) are down. So it's no surprise that people are reaching a limit.
That being said, I feel like this is all cyclical anyways. Anyone old enough to recall the NHL in the 90's remembers that automatic sellouts weren't always the norm. Edmonton had seasons of under 14 000 average attendance. Same with Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Ottawa.
Which is why I'm not entirely convinced however, that this is necessarily a demographic shift away from hockey and towards soccer and basketball. It certainly could be, but the "evidence" so far seems more anecdotal than anything concrete.