Post-Game Talk: #4 | Flyers at Predators | October 22, 2022 | 8:00pm | Win 3-1

[dats81]

At some point Hart will go down with a groin strain, as he always does, and things will go south quickly.

 

[deadhead]

Some of the dumbest takes I've ever seen.

They just won two out of three games on a road trip from hell without Couts, Atkinson, Tippett and Risto, which meant they had to play guys like Seeler and MacEwen.

Flyers won 3-1 and it wasn't that close, Farabee just missed on a goal that literally hugged the line before the goalie could clear it, there was another off the post, and a few more high danger shots they missed. Nashville had more shots, but FLyers did a good job of clearing out rebounds and denying second chances, and Hart had clear vision on most attempts.

Hart is playing well, but not nearly as impressive as he was in the playoffs, he's not making spectacular saves, just most of the routine stops (though he's let in a few "softees") and doing a good job tracking the puck in traffic. Torts emphasizes back checking and protecting the goalie, and they're blocking a lot of shots and clearing the crease - maybe Torts isn't lucky to have good goalies, maybe they play better for him.

Farabee is shaking off the rust, he's definitely stronger and playing with confidence.

Hayes is an offensive power, he's picked up where he left off last season, if you look at the two months he was healthy in 2020-21 and the last couple months last season when he was finally healthy, he was scoring at a high level (46g 14-24 38). So this start isn't a fluke.

MacEwen had a damn good game, not just the goal, which was a nifty play, but he mae his presence felt on the forecheck, a little out of control at times, but he can skate for a big man and this scheme allows him to attack the puck.

On the other hand, Frost did not have a good game. Though I think he was shook up after the guy he bumped into the boards was carried off on a stretcher, but it was incidental contact going for the puck.
Laczynski looked better, and Sedlak did a good job driving the fourth line.
TDA is a force out there, he's such a smooth skater and had great vision.
Zamula has picked up his play the last couple games, and he got more TOI tonight.
Cates just reminds me of Couts, he has that innate feel for the puck, that sequence at the end of the game where he refused to let the Preds get the puck out of their zone when they were desperate to move it was a great example.

Not saying this is a good team, but it's a far cry from terrible.

 

[WIP CALLER]

Some of the dumbest takes I've ever seen.

They just won two out of three games on a road trip from hell without Couts, Atkinson, Tippett and Risto, which meant they had to play guys like Seeler and MacEwen.

Flyers won 3-1 and it wasn't that close, Farabee just missed on a goal that literally hugged the line before the goalie could clear it, there was another off the post, and a few more high danger shots they missed. Nashville had more shots, but FLyers did a good job of clearing out rebounds and denying second chances, and Hart had clear vision on most attempts.

Hart is playing well, but not nearly as impressive as he was in the playoffs, he's not making spectacular saves, just most of the routine stops (though he's let in a few "softees") and doing a good job tracking the puck in traffic. Torts emphasizes back checking and protecting the goalie, and they're blocking a lot of shots and clearing the crease - maybe Torts isn't lucky to have good goalies, maybe they play better for him.

Farabee is shaking off the rust, he's definitely stronger and playing with confidence.

Hayes is an offensive power, he's picked up where he left off last season, if you look at the two months he was healthy in 2020-21 and the last couple months last season when he was finally healthy, he was scoring at a high level (46g 14-24 38). So this start isn't a fluke.

MacEwen had a damn good game, not just the goal, which was a nifty play, but he mae his presence felt on the forecheck, a little out of control at times, but he can skate for a big man and this scheme allows him to attack the puck.

On the other hand, Frost did not have a good game. Though I think he was shook up after the guy he bumped into the boards was carried off on a stretcher, but it was incidental contact going for the puck.
Laczynski looked better, and Sedlak did a good job driving the fourth line.
TDA is a force out there, he's such a smooth skater and had great vision.
Zamula has picked up his play the last couple games, and he got more TOI tonight.
Cates just reminds me of Couts, he has that innate feel for the puck, that sequence at the end of the game where he refused to let the Preds get the puck out of their zone when they were desperate to move it was a great example.

Not saying this is a good team, but it's a far cry from terrible.

I mean we already know you don’t watch the games but you clearly didn’t watch the second period where he had at least 3 spectacular saves that should have been goals. Anything for the narrative…

 

[BritainStix]

3 of the Flyers 4 wins so far are against teams that have a combined 5 wins in 18 games.

I am enjoying Hart carrying this team though, nice to see him playing well.

And they have been outplayed in every game. The signs are there....

 

[TCTC]

Hayes with 8 points in 5 games so far is pretty impressive. Looks like he's picked up where he left off at the end of last season.
Would be kind of hilarious if he has a career year in a season where nobody expects us to even make the playoffs.

 

[04hockey]

they've allowed the 3rd least goals in the league

only one team has more wins

not too shabby for all the regulars that are out .....

lighten up "kennies"

 

[VladDrag]

I'll hop in between the factions here, because it's where I belong.

Positionally and defensively, Hayes is playing like shit.

With the puck in the offensive zone or in, let's say, advanced transition (as in, already moving in the right direction through the neutral zone) he is the best I have ever seen him.

He's making a lot of subtle short passes that perpetuate pressure in ways that they would not have in the past. Of course he'll still sit on some pucks too long, but he's actually making better decisions faster and trusting his linemates more. And, in turn, his linemates are where they ought to be more than they had been in previous seasons. This is especially true on the power play, where he has been a highly-effective facillitator.

Hayes is not my favorite player by a long stretch. But I don't know what you're looking at if you don't see how much more effectively he is operating in the opponent's zone and at their blue line.

This whole thing is with a big asterisk, obviously, because I don't believe this team is actually 4-1-0 or anything that looks semi-decent is sustainable.

I agree with parts of this. I think Hayes is fine middle line center and brings a unique style of play that can be effective. Prior to coming to the Flyers (and even his first year here) he was a positive facilitator.

The short subtle pass is where he can shine, particularly for a taller player. I think about his assist on game one to TK after his nice entry. That is a good play.

On the PP, he’s not every effective on the half wall imo. He can make some plays, and it’s not a complete wash, but I think he would be better in the bumper spot as opposed to the half wall.

I think you could have a better pp with D’Angelo and Frost being your primary facilitators.

 

[Angry Hockey Dad]

Carter Hart has been phenomenal. Awesome seeing the kid bounce back and get off to a start like this.

4-0-0 .949sv% 1.75 GAA

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Two of the players that are having the biggest impact on our results right now are giving results that are unsustainable. No way Hart continues at a 949 clip through the season, nor do I expect him to be healthy the whole time and give us fifty five starts, which is what you’d expect if you’re getting that sort of play between the pipes. Hayes scoring is certainly going to regress.

We played two good teams, one we grinded out a win and one we got smoked. Let’s not pat our backs just yet.

 

[bennysflyers16]

I mean we already know you don’t watch the games but you clearly didn’t watch the second period where he had at least 3 spectacular saves that should have been goals. Anything for the narrative…

Minimize Hart to praise Chucks guys, it’s sad.

they've allowed the 3rd least goals in the league

only one team has more wins

not too shabby for all the regulars that are out .....

lighten up "kennies"

Hart has. The one game he didn’t play they allowed 4

 

[JojoTheWhale]

A lot of our problems is on the faceoffs . We won 20 percent or so and are worst in the league in that . We are starting most of our shifts chasing to get the puck instead of controlling it right off the bat .

If you look deeper into the numbers, this is a huge issue. I agree with this. Obviously, loss of Giroux and Couturier is huge in this - as well as the young-ish ness down the middle with Cates and Frost. Generally, younger players struggle with face-offs as it's really about who 'cheats the best.' This gets better with experience, and can swing shots and xGF by quite a few % points just by this alone.

This is what I've been observing as well - the Flyers are doing ok in transition, but they lose both defensive and offensive zone draws at alarming rates: creating xGF for opponents in the d-zone, and limiting xGF in the O zone for the Flyers as opponents get easy outs. I think it's a much bigger problem and contributing factor to the poor metrics we've had so far than people want to believe.

I'm not speaking toward the Flyers' play at all. This is just data.

This was one of the topics that hasn't held up to scrutiny at all. It would take flipping 35.5 Faceoff losses to wins to get them to 50% on the year. We'll round that up to 36 for convenience. We also know that the possession impact of a Faceoff lasts for roughly 15 seconds and then trails off to insignificance. Our napkin math of 540 seconds is good enough here to give us an idea. They've played 18,000 seconds of hockey, which means the difference between the hilariously bad Flyers and league average is a question of 3% of their ice time.

TLDR; Faceoffs matter very much in the possession metrics of a particular shift. They have minimal impact on possession metrics when taken over large sample sizes.

It's a bit more complicated than this because Faceoffs matter more on the PP than at 5v5 where most possession metrics are used, but that only lessens their impact in this case. I wanted to be as charitable as possible while still showing why they don't matter as much as we've been lead to believe for decades.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

I'm not speaking toward the Flyers' play at all. This is just data.

This was one of the topics that hasn't held up to scrutiny at all. It would take flipping 35.5 Faceoff losses to wins to get them to 50% on the year. We'll round that up to 36 for convenience. We also know that the possession impact of a Faceoff lasts for roughly 15 seconds and then trails off to insignificance. Our napkin math of 540 seconds is good enough here to give us an idea. They've played 18,000 seconds of hockey, which means the difference between the hilariously bad Flyers and league average is a question of 3% of their ice time.

TLDR; Faceoffs matter very much in the possession metrics of a particular shift. They have minimal impact on possession metrics when taken over large sample sizes.

It's a bit more complicated than this because Faceoffs matter more on the PP than at 5v5 where most possession metrics are used, but that only lessens their impact in this case. I wanted to be as charitable as possible while still showing why they don't matter as much as we've been lead to believe for decades.

Loaded question, but is there data tracked on shift results directly following a face off? GF, GA, zone entry or exit, HDCs? It’s such a small sample of the full game, but it would be interesting to see if there is a correlation.

 

[flyersnorth]

The Carter Hart Show, ep. 4.

I was mildly entertained.

I had the Nashville broadcast, and it was pretty funny. Ekholm after the 1st period said anyone who knows anything about hockey knows Nashville was the better team. Broadcasters were falling more and more into disbelief as the game wore on.

4-1-0 is not a lie. It's the cold, hard truth.

 

[Curufinwe]

That would have been a brutal game for a
Nashville fan to attend.

The play Tanner made to almost get Farabee his first goal was high end. He shouldn’t be buried on the 4th line, and certainly should not be sent down while they play Deslauriers and MacEwen. Give Zack credit for his goal, though, that was a strong play.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Loaded question, but is there data tracked on shift results directly following a face off? GF, GA, zone entry or exit, HDCs? It’s such a small sample of the full game, but it would be interesting to see if there is a correlation.

Great question. This definitely has been looked at, but I don't know how much of it is currently public info. I've been a little checked-out on hockey for the past couple years and I've fallen behind. I can tell you that the accepted rate of straight Faceoff wins to a +1 Goal Differential is in the range of 75-77:1 depending on your source. This is the chart usually quoted for Shot rates, but it was made at a time when we didn't really have more than the NHL's official data:

It's especially tricky in this area because the data itself is horrendously dirty. What constitutes a Faceoff win varies wildly. You even have some players who can win Draws to both his left and right, like Crosby. Then you have others like Riley Nash who gets the overwhelming majority of his wins back and to the right no matter where the Faceoff occurs. Then you have super weird cases like MacKinnon, who does far better on Faceoffs on his weak side.

Whether the draw win was clean also factors in heavily and when you take this into account at the leaguewide scale, there are clear impacts of coaching strategies. "Clean" wins happen far less often in the Defensive Zone for example.

 

[Curufinwe]

If the foundation is have a 40 xGF% each night, with the best goaltending in the league, the Flyers have the blueprint.

I’m happy for Hart, but this team is so irksome with how it indulges the early season narratives of the Authentics/management every year.

The commentators credit just about everything to Deslauriers’ fights, even the ones he loses in 5 seconds.

Why is that the Flyers somehow directly benefit from Nic D fighting, but the opposition somehow don’t benefit from their guy fighting? How does that work?

 

[mr4tno]

Another underserved win, thanks to Carter “Dream Ruiner” Hart.

Another game where Torts proved his coaching is shit, accountability is a lie, and his fetish is goon shit.

Another 77 of these. f***ing kill me.

I said it in the game day thread -- worse case scenario - outplayed by a wide margin, MacNothing scores and they won

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

 

[Canfly]

Could only watch the third period. Nice to see Farabee get on the scoresheet and Hart playing well.
Not sustainable the way that they are playing. Tough schedule coming up in the next couple of weeks where I figure they will be back around .500.
Even though SJ is not playing well it will be a tough one tonight after a quick turnaround and travel.

 

[Adtar02]

I can’t believe anyone would believe seeler and macwen wouldn’t still be playing if healthy

 

[Rebels57]

5 more games

 

[Beef Invictus]

Some of the dumbest takes I've ever seen.

They just won two out of three games on a road trip from hell without Couts, Atkinson, Tippett and Risto, which meant they had to play guys like Seeler and MacEwen.

Flyers won 3-1 and it wasn't that close, Farabee just missed on a goal that literally hugged the line before the goalie could clear it, there was another off the post, and a few more high danger shots they missed. Nashville had more shots, but FLyers did a good job of clearing out rebounds and denying second chances, and Hart had clear vision on most attempts.

Hart is playing well, but not nearly as impressive as he was in the playoffs, he's not making spectacular saves, just most of the routine stops (though he's let in a few "softees") and doing a good job tracking the puck in traffic. Torts emphasizes back checking and protecting the goalie, and they're blocking a lot of shots and clearing the crease - maybe Torts isn't lucky to have good goalies, maybe they play better for him.

Farabee is shaking off the rust, he's definitely stronger and playing with confidence.

Hayes is an offensive power, he's picked up where he left off last season, if you look at the two months he was healthy in 2020-21 and the last couple months last season when he was finally healthy, he was scoring at a high level (46g 14-24 38). So this start isn't a fluke.

MacEwen had a damn good game, not just the goal, which was a nifty play, but he mae his presence felt on the forecheck, a little out of control at times, but he can skate for a big man and this scheme allows him to attack the puck.

On the other hand, Frost did not have a good game. Though I think he was shook up after the guy he bumped into the boards was carried off on a stretcher, but it was incidental contact going for the puck.
Laczynski looked better, and Sedlak did a good job driving the fourth line.
TDA is a force out there, he's such a smooth skater and had great vision.
Zamula has picked up his play the last couple games, and he got more TOI tonight.
Cates just reminds me of Couts, he has that innate feel for the puck, that sequence at the end of the game where he refused to let the Preds get the puck out of their zone when they were desperate to move it was a great example.

Not saying this is a good team, but it's a far cry from terrible.

Funny how you have to ignore stats you usually cherrypick as divine revelation to make this proclamation

 

[TB87]

 

[Beef Invictus]

I find this to be good and important

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Great question. This definitely has been looked at, but I don't know how much of it is currently public info. I've been a little checked-out on hockey for the past couple years and I've fallen behind. I can tell you that the accepted rate of straight Faceoff wins to a +1 Goal Differential is in the range of 75-77:1 depending on your source. This is the chart usually quoted for Shot rates, but it was made at a time when we didn't really have more than the NHL's official data:

It's especially tricky in this area because the data itself is horrendously dirty. What constitutes a Faceoff win varies wildly. You even have some players who can win Draws to both his left and right, like Crosby. Then you have others like Riley Nash who gets the overwhelming majority of his wins back and to the right no matter where the Faceoff occurs. Then you have super weird cases like MacKinnon, who does far better on Faceoffs on his weak side.

Whether the draw win was clean also factors in heavily and when you take this into account at the leaguewide scale, there are clear impacts of coaching strategies. "Clean" wins happen far less often in the Defensive Zone for example.

It’s so bizarre that it’s something held in such high regard as a skill set. Specifically, the flyers I feel like have always taken pride in it.