GDT: 3/4/23 - 12:30PM EDT - Tampa Bay @ Buffalo

[PJ817]

Don't they care about trying to get home ice in round one? Giving Toronto home ice is a dangerous thing.

Nah. We didn't win the 2 cups having home ice advantage until the end.

And there's something to be said for "falling" into WC#1 spot and letting Buffalo play TOR

 

[JTBF81]

Don't they care about trying to get home ice in round one? Giving Toronto home ice is a dangerous thing.

Tampa didn't have it against them, the Panthers or Rangers last year, and it didn't stop them. I'm sure they'd like to have it round 1 of course, but if not, it is what it is.

 

[Major4Boarding]

The hope that I got was coop benching the top line. It shows he’s seeing some bad behavior patterns and is interested in correcting them.

It definitely got me to get off of his ass now. Didn’t think he had the chutzpah to do it. I will crawl back in my hole now.

 

[Rschmitz]

No post game on Bally?

Even they've seen enough

 

[DFC]

Ok... I'm probably gonna get crucified for this, but I feel like there were a lot of positives to take away from that one, especially after the top line got benched. It forced Cooper to shuffle things up and I think we might have found some combinations that work better.

Also, both new guys looked great. As soon as I saw Eyssimont, I wanted to see him with Cirelli, and we got that in the 3rd period. And I hope we continue with it. It also put Paul with Hagel and Killer, and they seemed to click pretty quickly.

Jeannot was stirring the pot from the get-go. Loved that too. Over a 7 game series there will be a lot of sore bodies on the other team.

The negative is what it is. I think Cooper is trying to get us to get serious about playing our playoff style (score a goal and try to win 1-0), and we just aren't able to settle into that 0 risk style, which got the top line punished. But I think, after this one, there are reasons for hope.

 

[DaBolts]

 

[Rschmitz]

Ok... I'm probably gonna get crucified for this, but I feel like there were a lot of positives to take away from that one, especially after the top line got benched. It forced Cooper to shuffle things up and I think we might have found some combinations that work better.

Also, both new guys looked great. As soon as I saw Eyssimont, I wanted to see him with Cirelli, and we got that in the 3rd period. And I hope we continue with it. It also put Paul with Hagel and Killer, and they seemed to click pretty quickly.

Jeannot was stirring the pot from the get-go. Loved that too. Over a 7 game series there will be a lot of sore bodies on the other team.

The negative is what it is. I think Cooper is trying to get us to get serious about playing our playoff style (score a goal and try to win 1-0), and we just aren't able to settle into that 0 risk style, which got the top line punished. But I think, after this one, there are reasons for hope.

He's fighting an up hill battle. Even if they aren't physically, mentally, and emotionally exhausted, there's also the natural human instinct of complacency. Not just with our current playoff positioning but with our success the last 3-10 years. This is where we miss Gourde the most, but we'll see I guess

 

[Lightning1995]

I’ve been as mad as anyone but this team isn’t dead and buried until it loses four games in a playoff series and they won’t be an easy out.

 

[Stammertime91]

He's fighting an up hill battle. Even if they aren't physically, mentally, and emotionally exhausted, there's also the natural human instinct of complacency. Not just with our current playoff positioning but with our success the last 3-10 years. This is where we miss Gourde the most, but we'll see I guess

The year is 2085 and HF Lightning still miss Yanni Gourde.

 

[Byrddog]

He's fighting an up hill battle. Even if they aren't physically, mentally, and emotionally exhausted, there's also the natural human instinct of complacency. Not just with our current playoff positioning but with our success the last 3-10 years. This is where we miss Gourde the most, but we'll see I guess

Very good point about complacency. Also the Gourd effect. And as much as I question Jeannot that could well be his job. I mean yeah he has two points oddly enough both on Killorn goals. But the first asst he got should have went to Letang’s teeth. That was brutal to watch but the puck found a stick and in. Todays asst was much better.

Coop needs the guys to respond we all know the weak areas and if it’s a first round so be it.

What is concerning is the team turning into Edmonton. Watching them now half way thru the 2nd it’s 5-4 Winnipeg neither team are defending and the goalies are getting just scorched Drisital a hatty half way thru game.

The last what 15 games the wheels have fallen off the game as a whole both aspects of scoring and defending can’t be fixed all at once. Not many games left to put the wheels back on . None of us want to see this team embarrassed in the 1st round right?

 

[Evilhomer]

Tampa didn't have it against them, the Panthers or Rangers last year, and it didn't stop them. I'm sure they'd like to have it round 1 of course, but if not, it is what it is.

You guys obviously know Tampa way better than I do, but when I watch them this season it gives me hard flashbacks to the 1986 Islanders. Still a good team, but you could see that the miles had become too much for the star players. I worry Tampa is in that same spot.

 

[Sky04]

Tampa didn't have it against them, the Panthers or Rangers last year, and it didn't stop them. I'm sure they'd like to have it round 1 of course, but if not, it is what it is.

Considering how good Tampa is at home, they're just making it harder on themselves.

 

[Bartleby]

You guys obviously know Tampa way better than I do, but when I watch them this season it gives me hard flashbacks to the 1986 Islanders. Still a good team, but you could see that the miles had become too much for the star players. I worry Tampa is in that same spot.

There may be an element of that, but unlike that Islander team that went to 5 straight finals with I think 16 of the same players, there's been a fair amount of turnover with the additions of pretty key guys like Hagel, Paul and now Jeannot. They should be fresh and hungry. Kucherov is a bit of head case and it's hard to know just how motivated he is in the regular season but let's not forget that he took an entire season off. He should be fine too. On the D side, guys like Sergachev, Cernak and Perbix are all young and should have no excuses either. It really comes down to three guys IMO,, Stamkos, Killorn and most of all, Hedman. If Killer and Stammer can't get it done at the levels we've come to expect that would be bad but there is enough talent, on paper anyway, that we should be able to handle that. We won a Cup basically without Stamkos and went to the finals last year without a single goal from Killer. But if Hedman can't get back to something close to Hedmonster once the playoffs roll around, then we don't have much of a chance no matter what else happens. He's the guy that really needs to pick it up and I have no idea if he can. His game just looks tired.

Vasy I'm not too worried about despite the mileage. While it's true that he is not having a great statistical season, the underlying numbers suggest that he is still all-world. And he's Vasy.

 

[KaraLupin]

Ok... I'm probably gonna get crucified for this, but I feel like there were a lot of positives to take away from that one, especially after the top line got benched. It forced Cooper to shuffle things up and I think we might have found some combinations that work better.

Also, both new guys looked great. As soon as I saw Eyssimont, I wanted to see him with Cirelli, and we got that in the 3rd period. And I hope we continue with it. It also put Paul with Hagel and Killer, and they seemed to click pretty quickly.

Jeannot was stirring the pot from the get-go. Loved that too. Over a 7 game series there will be a lot of sore bodies on the other team.

The negative is what it is. I think Cooper is trying to get us to get serious about playing our playoff style (score a goal and try to win 1-0), and we just aren't able to settle into that 0 risk style, which got the top line punished. But I think, after this one, there are reasons for hope.

What were the forward lines by the end of the game? Thanks.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Tampa didn't have it against them, the Panthers or Rangers last year, and it didn't stop them. I'm sure they'd like to have it round 1 of course, but if not, it is what it is.

Not only that, but to a certain degree, I've come to prefer not having home-ice, for two reasons:

1) We're unbelievably awful in Game 1 home openers. Seriously, we're like 3-8 in those in the Cooper era. We work all season for the home-ice advantage then punt it away immediately.

2) Yes, you only get three home games, not four, but only one team gets to host three out of four games at home during a series, and that's the team without HIA (3, 4, 6). If you get a road split to begin the series, that's mission accomplished for the early part, and sometimes you end up getting both games. We jumped Florida and Carolina this way in 2021 and did so to Florida again last year. If you split the first two at home, now the pressure is on you to get one of the next two away as you get deeper in the series. It's a failure, and there isn't much other way to look at it.

For me, the only downside to not having the HIA is that Game 7 is on the road. That's it. Everything else before that, I actually like having 3/4/6 instead of 1/2/5. And if it ends up coming down to Game 7...whatever. Historically in road Game 7's, I think we're 3-2, so we've had more fortune than most teams, if I had to guess. It's not a death knell, even if the two losses there were particularly stinging losses to take.

 

[Stormbreaker]

What were the forward lines by the end of the game? Thanks.

Hagel - Paul - Killorn
Eyssimont - Cirelli - Jeannot
Perry - Colton - Maroon

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

You guys obviously know Tampa way better than I do, but when I watch them this season it gives me hard flashbacks to the 1986 Islanders. Still a good team, but you could see that the miles had become too much for the star players. I worry Tampa is in that same spot.

I mean, there is some merit here. Consider this:

2020: 25 playoff games (+ a shit-ton of long, multi-OT games)
2021: 23 playoff games
2022: 23 playoff games

25 + 23 + 23 = 71, all of these being playoff at playoff intensities which magnifies their effect compared to what 71 regular season games would be.

Now, in that same time, 2019-'20 was shortened a little bit, and 2020-'21 was 26 games shorter than normal, but these changes applied across the board. Who have been the four other most successful teams in the last five years or so (so, beginning in 2017-'18). I'll just choose the Cup winning teams - WSH, StL, TB x2, COL - and, I dunno, I guess Boston to round out the list.

Regular season games:

BOS: 246 + 56 + 70 = 372
COL: 246 + 56 + 70 = 372
StL: 246 + 56 + 71 = 373
TB: 246 + 56 + 70 = 372
WSH: 246 + 56 + 69 = 371

That part was easy enough. Now add the playoff games to the mix (these include round robin games from the 2020 bubble):

BOS: 12 + 24 + 13 + 11 + 7 = 67
COL: 6 + 12 + 15 + 10 + 20 = 63
StL: 0 + 26 + 9 + 4 + 12 = 51
TB: 17 + 4 + 25 + 23 + 23 = 93
WSH: 24 + 7 + 8 + 5 + 6 = 50

I could be wrong but I'm going to assume Boston is 2nd place in playoff games in the previous five seasons...I mean, who else can you think of that's played that many? Islanders have two deep runs but also two misses entirely, for instance. Quick math tells me Las Vegas has played 66 playoff games, so sure I guess. The point being, regardless, the gulf between 67 playoff games to 93 playoff games...that's essentially one whole Cup run's worth of games extra compared to anybody else. It makes sense; we've played in three, won two, and gone to Game 7 of the ECF another time as well, and it's only being the unwitting holders of the NHL's single greatest playoff failure of all-time that we're not in the triple digits. No matter what, that is a ton of extra wear and tear that our players have that just about every other team, doesn't. Will it catch up to us this year (is it already?). Hopefully not, but that pied piper is bound to come ready for his collection eventually when you see those numbers.

 

[Evilhomer]

I mean, there is some merit here. Consider this:

2020: 25 playoff games (+ a shit-ton of long, multi-OT games)
2021: 23 playoff games
2022: 23 playoff games

25 + 23 + 23 = 71, all of these being playoff at playoff intensities which magnifies their effect compared to what 71 regular season games would be.

Now, in that same time, 2019-'20 was shortened a little bit, and 2020-'21 was 26 games shorter than normal, but these changes applied across the board. Who have been the four other most successful teams in the last five years or so (so, beginning in 2017-'18). I'll just choose the Cup winning teams - WSH, StL, TB x2, COL - and, I dunno, I guess Boston to round out the list.

Regular season games:

BOS: 246 + 56 + 70 = 372
COL: 246 + 56 + 70 = 372
StL: 246 + 56 + 71 = 373
TB: 246 + 56 + 70 = 372
WSH: 246 + 56 + 69 = 371

That part was easy enough. Now add the playoff games to the mix (these include round robin games from the 2020 bubble):

BOS: 12 + 24 + 13 + 11 + 7 = 67
COL: 6 + 12 + 15 + 10 + 20 = 63
StL: 0 + 26 + 9 + 4 + 12 = 51
TB: 17 + 4 + 25 + 23 + 23 = 93
WSH: 24 + 7 + 8 + 5 + 6 = 50

I could be wrong but I'm going to assume Boston is 2nd place in playoff games in the previous five seasons...I mean, who else can you think of that's played that many? Islanders have two deep runs but also two misses entirely, for instance. Quick math tells me Las Vegas has played 66 playoff games, so sure I guess. The point being, regardless, the gulf between 67 playoff games to 93 playoff games...that's essentially one whole Cup run's worth of games extra compared to anybody else. It makes sense; we've played in three, won two, and gone to Game 7 of the ECF another time as well, and it's only being the unwitting holders of the NHL's single greatest playoff failure of all-time that we're not in the triple digits. No matter what, that is a ton of extra wear and tear that our players have that just about every other team, doesn't. Will it catch up to us this year (is it already?). Hopefully not, but that pied piper is bound to come ready for his collection eventually when you see those numbers.

This is what it looks like to me, having watched those Islanders dynasty teams pretty closely back then and remembering them well. At the same time, it's also not something that anybody should be skewering management, coaching or players for - all teams with this level of success have a natural degradation to them, which has become even more pronounced in the salary cap era. While I certainly understand the mystique of Vasilevskiy, he is not immune to the wear and tear, and from my eyes he looks like he has also taken a step back this year.

I think Tampa will lose in the first round this year, but will remain competitive for the next few seasons. They will have decision points when Stamkos comes up in two years and Hedman in three years. Moving those two in advance of their deals expiring is something they will need to explore. Trading Hedman next season, when he will still have one year left on his contract, or Stamkos next season when he is on the verge of becoming a UFA, would go a long way to rebuilding the franchise.