OT: 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

[Jags]

The biggest knock on Daniels seems to be his slender frame and style of play that increases injury risk

Well, that coupled with the fact that that type of overall style has never tended to age well. You either develop into a pocket guy by 27 or 28 or you're running the the risk of becoming a far less elite backup by 30.

You're convinced he's as good a pocket passer as just about anyone in the class, but there's no real evidence of that because his mobility defines his escapability. He's far more apt to abandon the pocket than shift inside of it to extend a play.

Now that's college and might just be the design of the offense, but changing those tendencies will be just as tedious and time consuming as the mechanics Maye has to fix. There is downside to Daniels that has little to do with his size, but all the talk is on his meteoric rise so we're not getting that context.

Just one guy, but ouch.

Meh, I like that Simms sticks to his guns, but all you need to see is the title of that video to recognize the horseshit. Maye's pro day was pretty fantastic. And he's selling hard on Penix while leaving out that many, many scouts -- even the ones who love him most -- are worried he might be at his ceiling.

Simms will stick with his rankings no matter what, and he came out hard against Maye, saying he's #6 in the class. He makes some good points about Maye, but he leans into the negatives mightily while spending little time discussing the many obvious positives.

 

[ynotcaps]

Well, that coupled with the fact that that type of overall style has never tended to age well. You either develop into a pocket guy by 27 or 28 or you're running the the risk of becoming a far less elite backup by 30.

You're convinced he's as good a pocket passer as just about anyone in the class, but there's no real evidence of that because his mobility defines his escapability. He's far more apt to abandon the pocket than shift inside of it to extend a play.

Now that's college and might just be the design of the offense, but changing those tendencies will be just as tedious and time consuming as the mechanics Maye has to fix. There is downside to Daniels that has little to do with his size, but all the talk is on his meteoric rise so we're not getting that context.



Meh, I like that Simms sticks to his guns, but all you need to see is the title of that video to recognize the horseshit. Maye's pro day was pretty fantastic. And he's selling hard on Penix while leaving out that many, many scouts -- even the ones who love him most -- are worried he might be at his ceiling.

Simms will stick with his rankings no matter what, and he came out hard against Maye, saying he's #6 in the class. He makes some good points about Maye, but he leans into the negatives mightily while spending little time discussing the many obvious positives.

I'm convinced of his pocket ability because I've watched almost every game of his since he got to LSU. There's plenty of of evidence of that. 21 TD's to 0 INTs vs. man coverage, 17 TDs to 0 INT's vs. zone -- those numbers don't come from abandoning the pocket.
Also, his game grew significantly in the second half of last season. Maye's regressed. Daniels consistently starred vs. better competition -- Maye didn't.
Simply said, I think Daniels is the better quarterback -- regardless of play style. And the more former quarterbacks who have weighed in in prep for the draft have reinforced that belief.

 

[kicksavedave]

Well, that coupled with the fact that that type of overall style has never tended to age well. You either develop into a pocket guy by 27 or 28 or you're running the the risk of becoming a far less elite backup by 30.

You're convinced he's as good a pocket passer as just about anyone in the class, but there's no real evidence of that because his mobility defines his escapability. He's far more apt to abandon the pocket than shift inside of it to extend a play.

Yeah that's just not accurate. Like, not at all. JD consistently made more 2nd, 3rd, 4th reads and had a higher completion % than the other two (CW and DM). He had the fewest turnover worthy plays (better decision making) . He had the higher "big time throw" ratio, which meant he was going deep and succeeding plenty. These don't all come from being on the run, they come from passing well in the pocket. He also showed plenty of time when he moved in the pocket to buy time, then found his 3rd or 4th option and nailed the pass. Plenty of those cases. In fact he is likely the best pocket passer among the top 3, even though he can also run. The all 22 game film across all his games shows you this. A few youtube highlights don't.

 

[Bananas]

It’s funny. I thought he looked nervous and I didn’t love the body language. He definitely ended stronger than he began though. To me the pro day has me finally starting to convert to the JD camp after being close for a while now. I think there is an “unclutchness” to Maye that came across again today. The full game tape also favors JD, so I think I may have to officially turn over my DM at 2OA card.

Unclutch as he’s been prepping for this day for months and he came out shaky and looking nervous. I thought JD looked much more assured in himself.

The body type and big arm are still on display for Maye, but his release looked slow and he didn’t look incredibly comfortable in shorts throwing footballs. I didn’t love it, but who cares what I think honestly.

Just one guy, but ouch.

While I don’t agree with his overall evaluation, I do agree with much of what he’s knocking about Maye’s pro day. I will say that when I had made the comments above, I hadn’t finished watching the full thing. By the end I think Maye really started heating up and looking great. It was such a microcosm of the player overall. I have questions about his wiring, and about his clutchness, but when he’s on he’s on a whole different level than Daniels as a pure passer. He can attack all levels of the field and his frame is built to last and will only get more impressive as he fills out. He could Josh Allen or bust. No doubt about it.

 

[Jags]

Yeah that's just not accurate.

It's more accurate when you bold the rest of the sentence. And for the record, I've now seen all but two of his games from last year, in context. There's a difference between what he does in a clean pocket and when it really breaks down. I'm not saying he's terrible in those instances, but because his mobility defines his escapability, he bails when he shouldn't (or doesn't have to) with a very real frequency.

To be clear, I think that tendency is pretty obviously connected to his brilliance on the move. I'd move too if I was a f***ing wizard at it. The point I made that you're taking out of context is that his overall style has never aged well in the NFL. Ever. History suggests that if he doesn't transition to more of a fixed pocket guy, his game will fall off and his team won't reach the heights fans hope for. How many Super Bowls did Cunningham and Vick play in? Lamar?

So yes, it matters that his instincts lean toward a game that tends not to thrive long, and hasn't won many (if any) Super Bowls.

Now, you say that he already is the pocket passer he needs to be, and I'm saying that he's not because of that tendency. When I say "extend a play" I'm talking about the way Roethlisberger and Marino moved around in collapsing pockets, extending plays exponentially without moving much at all, the way one might have to in today's NFL after a knee tear or popped Achilles subtracts a step or two.

Daniels was very well protected at LSU, at least last year (I've only seen 4 games from the year before), and his offense was clearly designed to embrace his mobility. You can't watch his LSU tape and conclude that he's already somehow a pocket passer in the NFL. So little of what you're seeing there will translate to the next level, and most of the stuff that will is tied to his legs. If Jayden loses a step or two, he will have to massively overhaul his pocket tendencies because that Ejector Seat button he's had his whole life and relies on a lot will be gone.

Again, I'm NOT saying he's terrible at any of these things or that he couldn't thrive at those things when it's finally asked of him in the NFL, but the evidence is not really there. It takes a lot of speculation to suggest that it is, and your and ynot's unwavering praise has been hyperbolic at times. If he was all of the things you guys are convinced he is, Caleb wouldn't even be in the conversation for #1 overall and Maye and McCarthy wouldn't even be in his orbit.

 

[TCB]

Just one guy, but ouch.

Just one guy, but to Simms credit he's usually bang on but not always. He had Zach Wilson as the Next great thing back in 2021

Chris Simms on Zach Wilson: "Holy Crapola, Batman!"

"He has the best arm in the draft." "The mechanics are flawless - they are flawless." "When things are perfect, he's going to throw it perfect. But, when things

247sports.com

"The mechanics are flawless - they are flawless."

"When things are perfect, he's going to throw it perfect. But, when things aren't perfect, it's almost perfect every throw too. And that's just where I go, 'Holy Crapola, Batman."

"I'm blow away by Zach Wilson. I feel like I'm back watching almost a Patrick Mahomes again. That's how I feel when I'm watching him. It's Aaron Rodgers-ish."

"First of all, his throwing is exceptional - the consistency of the throwing, right off the bat. There are guys open, whatever, he hits them. It's on target all the time. 20-yard out route, 10-yard out route - there is never any waver in any accuracy on things that are there to be had."

 

[StreetHawk]

I'm convinced of his pocket ability because I've watched almost every game of his since he got to LSU. There's plenty of of evidence of that. 21 TD's to 0 INTs vs. man coverage, 17 TDs to 0 INT's vs. zone -- those numbers don't come from abandoning the pocket.
Also, his game grew significantly in the second half of last season. Maye's regressed. Daniels consistently starred vs. better competition -- Maye didn't.
Simply said, I think Daniels is the better quarterback -- regardless of play style. And the more former quarterbacks who have weighed in in prep for the draft have reinforced that belief.

With Daniels having double the number of starts as Maye, it really does make the comparision a bit trickier.

Like LSU Daniels is better than Maye, but is ASU Daniels also better than Maye? If yes, take Daniels, as that's a no brainer. If not, then question is whether you believe with time and reps, will Maye get to and surpass LSU Daniels level?

 

[ynotcaps]

With Daniels having double the number of starts as Maye, it really does make the comparision a bit trickier.

Like LSU Daniels is better than Maye, but is ASU Daniels also better than Maye? If yes, take Daniels, as that's a no brainer. If not, then question is whether you believe with time and reps, will Maye get to and surpass LSU Daniels level?

The timeline comparison doesn't matter. Frankly, the player comparison doesn't matter. I do not have faith Maye will reach his potential. So I'd take Caleb over him, Daniels over him and McCarthy over him.

I haven't watched enough of Nix to have an opinion on him, and Penix seems like an older, injured, poor-man's version of Maye, so I definitely wouldn't take him. But those guys don't really matter for this purpose because they're not in the consideration set where we're picking.

But back to your original comparison point: perhaps Maye should have stayed another year. If his things are coachable/fixable, get some coaching/fixing (like Daniels did) and see what it gets you. Now, I know he lives and breathes Carolina Blue, and to get that better coaching (and face better competition), he'd have had to transfer -- but he's leaving Carolina this year anyway. There's a QB guru in So Cal who's losing his guy -- seems like he might have been worth a call.

Just one guy, but to Simms credit he's usually bang on but not always. He had Zach Wilson as the Next great thing back in 2021

Chris Simms on Zach Wilson: "Holy Crapola, Batman!"

"He has the best arm in the draft." "The mechanics are flawless - they are flawless." "When things are perfect, he's going to throw it perfect. But, when things

247sports.com

"The mechanics are flawless - they are flawless."

"When things are perfect, he's going to throw it perfect. But, when things aren't perfect, it's almost perfect every throw too. And that's just where I go, 'Holy Crapola, Batman."

"I'm blow away by Zach Wilson. I feel like I'm back watching almost a Patrick Mahomes again. That's how I feel when I'm watching him. It's Aaron Rodgers-ish."

"First of all, his throwing is exceptional - the consistency of the throwing, right off the bat. There are guys open, whatever, he hits them. It's on target all the time. 20-yard out route, 10-yard out route - there is never any waver in any accuracy on things that are there to be had."

He loves my guy -- so I'm not going to shit all over him -- but the puffery of Penix gives me big pause. Breer gave a pretty compelling breakdown of the knocks on him, including the Michigan coaching staff basically saying, "let him beat us -- he can't."

 

[RedRocking]

Check out this game from Maye. It’s got a little of everything. He’s playing in rhythm with the quick passing game. He’s throwing strikes over the middle, and layering throws over the LBs with those seam routes. I think Maye is the best in this class at varying the touch/speed of his throws.

Look at him battle, it’s kinda ugly, hard to move the ball. He’s down a few scores, starts to heat up, willing his team to a win. He’s sliding in the pocket, eluding pressure, making off platform throws. He’s running for tough yards, and key 1st downs - and crucially is sliding. And that back shoulder TD to Green (in the 4th) is thrown with perfect anticipation. Just one of many “Sunday throws” all over his tape.

Anyways, I’m not saying this is his best game, it’s a bit ugly with a slow start. (The Wake game comes to mind as maybe one of the better ones: .

But it was fun to watch the range of his athletic abilities. He has all the tools, but he’s raw and at times maddening. However, if he can put it all together, he could be ELITE…

 

[Roric]

Ironic that we talk so much about these running QBs like daniels destined to get hurt when prototypical pocket passers aren’t faring any better. Burrow can’t stay healthy for the life of him. Tua is one concussion away from early retirement. Kirk just had a major season ending injury while in the pocket, untouched. Stafford has been fighting injuries for a while now. Purdy tore his UCL, in the pocket. Hell even herbert was battling fractured ribs for an entire season

It can happen to anyone, but because we had RG who actually had a major injury in college first, the same sour outcome surely awaits daniels

 

[Neil Racki]

Ironic that we talk so much about these running QBs like daniels destined to get hurt when prototypical pocket passers aren’t faring any better. Burrow can’t stay healthy for the life of him. Tua is one concussion away from early retirement. Kirk just had a major season ending injury while in the pocket, untouched. Stafford has been fighting injuries for a while now. Purdy tore his UCL, in the pocket. Hell even herbert was battling fractured ribs for an entire season

It can happen to anyone, but because we had RG who actually had a major injury in college first, the same sour outcome surely awaits daniels

I hear ya but it also basic probability and statistics.

Person who drives 30k miles a year is more likely to get into an car accident vs person who drives 10k a year

QB that runs more, gets tackled more.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I hear ya but it also basic probability and statistics.

Person who drives 30k miles a year is more likely to get into an car accident vs person who drives 10k a year

QB that runs more, gets tackled more.

But not necessarily hurt….not all runs end in tackles….especially for QBs.

 

[EroCaps]

I get the JJ McCarthy hype. I don’t know what his upside is but after doing a deep dive on his tape I came away extremely impressed. Pro ready pocket movement and accuracy.

If anyone reminds me of young Russ Wilson it’s this guy.

Still leaning Maye but I wouldn’t be devastated if they shocked the world at took him at 2.

 

[Roric]

I hear ya but it also basic probability and statistics.

Person who drives 30k miles a year is more likely to get into an car accident vs person who drives 10k a year

QB that runs more, gets tackled more.

Tell that to russell wilson or lamar. Why is it a foregone conclusion that daniels can’t be coached to slide and/or run out of bounds when taking off? Again, because we still have our RG glasses on.

I’d also like to see the percentage of major injuries that happen to QBs behind the line of scrimmage vs. beyond it. One is taking a hit from a massive brute of a DT/edge rusher vs a much smaller corner/safety



I wonder if that’s the start of a few WR moves. Higgins and Aiyuk in particular. Maybe Jefferson….

 

[ynotcaps]

Tell that to russell wilson or lamar. Why is it a foregone conclusion that daniels can’t be coached to slide and/or run out of bounds when taking off? Again, because we still have our RG glasses on.

I’d also like to see the percentage of major injuries that happen to QBs behind the line of scrimmage vs. beyond it. One is taking a hit from a massive brute of a DT/edge rusher vs a much smaller corner/safety



I wonder if that’s the start of a few WR moves. Higgins and Aiyuk in particular. Maybe Jefferson….

HOU has turned that ship around FAST. They've taken huge swings and they've all seemed to pay off so far.

 

[Neil Racki]

But not necessarily hurt….not all runs end in tackles….especially for QBs.

yes not necessarily .. im painting with a broad brush here but imo common sense and prob and stats = running QB gets more contact = more contact = slight increase in injury

I will die on this hill by the way.

Entrenching myself as we speak

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

yes not necessarily .. im painting with a broad brush here but imo common sense and prob and stats = running QB gets more contact = more contact = slight increase in injury

I will die on this hill by the way.

Entrenching myself as we speak

I am curious how many hits in the pocket + tackles (- slides) a guy like Mahomes or Jackson take over a season vs a traditional pocket QB who stays there getting smacked in the pocket with minimal running attempts.

 

[John Price]

Daniels has a slender frame but his athleticism and deep ball are off the charts.

Maye is larger but interesting Keim brought up accuracy issues and "missed layups" during his podcast. Right now most mock drafts are trending towards Daniels. TBH I wouldn't complain about either one, I'm lucky enough not to be the one making the decision, and I trust Peters with whatever he decides to do.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Love Diggs but that’s the second organization he’s malcontented out of. Maybe third time is the charm for him.

I listen to none of these guys for draft info at this point. There’s nothing new to report and they’re looking for ratings and clicks and need something to argue about for the next three weeks. Also, there are three former head coaches on our coaching staff plus Peters and his brain trust so I trust they’re doing everything possible to evaluate potential options the right way. Quinn had a pocket QB in Matt Ryan, as did Anthony Lynn in San Diego with Philip Rivers. Kliff had Kyler Murray. A wide range of experiences there to draw from.

This is not going to be Rivera picking guys out of a hat because their parents were in the military and they were a team captain and can offer positional flex.

 

[usiel]

yes not necessarily .. im painting with a broad brush here but imo common sense and prob and stats = running QB gets more contact = more contact = slight increase in injury

I will die on this hill by the way.

Entrenching myself as we speak

As long as its not on the beach. Every time I see a headline of someone digging a big hole on the beach and it collapsing and burying them alive I just shake my head and mutter, "Darwin Award Winner".

 

[kicksavedave]

Just one guy, but to Simms credit he's usually bang on but not always. He had Zach Wilson as the Next great thing back in 2021

Chris Simms on Zach Wilson: "Holy Crapola, Batman!"

"He has the best arm in the draft." "The mechanics are flawless - they are flawless." "When things are perfect, he's going to throw it perfect. But, when things

247sports.com

"The mechanics are flawless - they are flawless."

"When things are perfect, he's going to throw it perfect. But, when things aren't perfect, it's almost perfect every throw too. And that's just where I go, 'Holy Crapola, Batman."

"I'm blow away by Zach Wilson. I feel like I'm back watching almost a Patrick Mahomes again. That's how I feel when I'm watching him. It's Aaron Rodgers-ish."

"First of all, his throwing is exceptional - the consistency of the throwing, right off the bat. There are guys open, whatever, he hits them. It's on target all the time. 20-yard out route, 10-yard out route - there is never any waver in any accuracy on things that are there to be had."

Simms even commented on how he missed on Wilson, but the question would be fair, how much is Wilson busting/sucking due to where he went, vs his own inability to adjust to the NFL game? I mean, Wilsons throwing at his pro day and in college was perfect, but that's not all that matters, which is why pro days are worthless.

I keep falling back on Kurt Warner's statement - All of these guys need to improve a lot to be successful in the NFL. If a player has perfect mechanics and a great arm, but cannot process the NFL game, he'll fail (too many like this to count - Jeff George, Jay Cutler, Zack Wilson, etc). If a player has a limited arm but a high level NFL brain, he can succeed (Brock Purdy, Tom Brady, etc).

Predicting who's brain will adapt to the NFL game and who's won't, is impossible. We can guess, we can't know. KW says this clearly. Simms needs to qualify his comments with this, it seems he lightly touched on it regarding Wilson, but regardless, this is why ALL the pundits and most of the GM's really suck at finding a QB.

 

[kicksavedave]

yes not necessarily .. im painting with a broad brush here but imo common sense and prob and stats = running QB gets more contact = more contact = slight increase in injury

I will die on this hill by the way.

Entrenching myself as we speak

The statistical difference only applies for designed runs. A QB who escapes a sack and instead gets hit 20 yards downfield, has not been "hit more" than the pocket QB who just took the sack. QB's only take more hits if they do designed runs and don't slide or get out of bounds. So the statistical likelihood of being hurt because a QB "can" run well, is not automatic. It depends a lot on how and when he runs.

Its accepted that a QB who runs recklessly and takes unnecessary hits is not likely to survive long, but its not guaranteed that JD will be that guy. He showed real growth in that area throughout his senior year.

 

[ynotcaps]

Simms even commented on how he missed on Wilson, but the question would be fair, how much is Wilson busting/sucking due to where he went, vs his own inability to adjust to the NFL game? I mean, Wilsons throwing at his pro day and in college was perfect, but that's not all that matters, which is why pro days are worthless.

I keep falling back on Kurt Warner's statement - All of these guys need to improve a lot to be successful in the NFL. If a player has perfect mechanics and a great arm, but cannot process the NFL game, he'll fail (too many like this to count - Jeff George, Jay Cutler, Zack Wilson, etc). If a player has a limited arm but a high level NFL brain, he can succeed (Brock Purdy, Tom Brady, etc).

Predicting who's brain will adapt to the NFL game and who's won't, is impossible. We can guess, we can't know. KW says this clearly. Simms needs to qualify his comments with this, it seems he lightly touched on it regarding Wilson, but regardless, this is why ALL the pundits and most of the GM's really suck at finding a QB.

Yeah, that's why I think it's silly to say teams have their minds made up at this point (except maybe CHI) because they've still got their testing and their in-depth sit-downs with these guys. Those should count for more than practice throws against air.
And, in a professional organization, the results of those are pretty well kept in-house until at least after the draft. Anything you hear coming of those sessions is more likely spin (or flat out disinformation) to keep other teams off balance.

 

[kicksavedave]

Wow, Diggs didn't even fetch a 2024 draft pick in return. 2025 2nd from Houston is all they got, but they sent Diggs plus a 2024 6th and a 2025 5th to the Texans. That's essentially a next year 3rd round pick in return. Plus Buffalo eats a $31+ M cap hit this year for their effort.

They really wanted out on Diggs.

 

[ynotcaps]

Wow, Diggs didn't even fetch a 2024 draft pick in return. 2025 2nd from Houston is all they got, but they sent Diggs plus a 2024 6th and a 2025 5th to the Texans. That's essentially a next year 3rd round pick in return. Plus Buffalo eats a $31+ M cap hit this year for their effort.

They really wanted out on Diggs.

I imagine that 2nd could be an asset to try to move up to get one of the top WRs this year. ATM, C. Samuel is their #1 -- hard to feel good about that, no matter how good your QB is.