The draft is three weeks from today. Random thoughts:
* I have a significant preference for Drake Maye over Jayden Daniels, based almost entirely on arm strength. Daniels can probably go somewhere like Washington and be a really good NFL QB. But I think in places like Buffalo and Green Bay and Foxboro, it's preferable to have someone with a bigger arm to combat the elements.
* If I had to guess, I'd say there's a 65% chance the Patriots stay at #3 and take either Maye or Daniels, a 25% chance they trade the pick, and a 10% chance they keep the pick and take someone else.
* I'm going to be a bit of a hypocrite here because I've been beating the drum over how I think the Patriots and Vikings already have a deal worked out, but... I'm not sure I want to drop all the way down to #11, and potentially miss out on the top 4 quarterbacks, the top 3 receivers, and the top 2 tackles. I've got my eye on the Giants at #6 as a team that might have enough motivation and assets to make the kind of offer that could be compelling.
* I think this is a good offensive line draft, but I'm not convinced it's a good offensive tackle draft. I think there are a lot of future NFL guards that are masquerading as tackles. I currently have no idea how the Patriots are going to fill that gaping hole at left tackle.
* Same thing applies to receiver to a lesser extent. Lot of good receivers... not a whole lot of guys I feel really good about being really good X receivers once you get past the top four or five.
We have lots of hole to fill and need to hit on our top 5 picks this year if we are going to improve.
If the team has one QB in mind that they want ( other than Williams) and he is there at 3 take him, if not trade down and get more picks. I am assuming they want one of Daniels or Maye at three.
JJ does not move the needle for me to pick him in the top 5.
If the Pats trade down with Minnesota I take a OT to fill our need on the line, at 11, Alt will probably be gone by then, so Fashanu or Latham would be a nice fit. They can play next year starting week one.
With the second Minny pick in the first round, with some luck, Penix would be my guy. If not, there will be a nice WR around that can start week one. Thomas Jr or Mitchell will be there at 23.
With our second round pick, I would take another WR, then we are set for the next 4-5 years at that position and have some weapons for our future QB.
I would expect Minny to give us at least another first rounder in 2025, so we have 2 firsts next year.