njdevils1982
Hell Toupée!!!
no. we're gonna win the lottery and pick 1st.
Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread
- Thread starter Devs3cups
- Start date
no. we're gonna win the lottery and pick 1st.
JimEIV
Registered User
- Feb 19, 2003
- 66,192
- 28,542
Devils had a 3.6% chance to win the Larsson lottery which kicked off a decade of draft dominance. And what a coincidence, that's right in between our chances at the first and second pick this year.
Guadana
Registered User
I think he has top-6 potential - he is driving the net, playing in the slot, protect the puck well, winning battles, making fast and smart plays. Overall from what I saw in the play off games he is making what you are expecting from your scoring center.
He is my number one option if Buium and Dickinson will not be available. I like him more than Catton(Catton should have more point producing potential, but he is playing more perimeter game), more than Iginla(Iginla is better playmaker with the puck, but thats all. Nygard is bigger, faster, better positional player, better defensive player).
As a complimentary player for Jack or Bratt he is perfect, because he is very good in creating the open space, he is making fast short passes with high accuracy. Thats exactly what Jack and Bratt need to play with. And Nygard is very good in board battles and puck protection. So yeah, would be great to draft him if Buium and Dickinson are not available.
Guadana
Registered User
I think Helenius is something between Suzuki and Benson.
10-12 games is enough. I watched less.
He isnt my top choice too in most situations, but I will like him as a pick. Because I have enoug players I would prefer Helenius over them. And I dont think that gap between Nygard, Chernyshov, Helenius and Iginla is really big. Someone will develop their weak side, someone will not, but we cant know who will do it and who will not. Mostly it is about IQ and Nygard and Helenius have better IQ on my taste.
Devils731
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2008
- 12,358
- 16,527
I think something is off there, the Devils can’t get 3rd overall as there are only 2 lottery picks.
So if the Devils win 1 of the 2 lotteries to move up, how do 2 teams end up in front of them?
I think the Red Wings may be the best example of something being off.
It would have to be a very particular scenario. If I understand it correctly, it would be the #12 team winning the first drawing and being limited to only going up to #2. Then if we won the second drawing, we'd then be awarded #3.
(25/1000) (2.5% chance of Philadelphia winning first drawing) * (35/975) (chance of us winning the second drawing) = 0.089%
The Red Wings have 0.5% odds (5 of the 1000 combinations). If they won the first or second drawing, they'd be restricted to moving up to #5. The math could get a little messy since you'd have to account for each possible winner of the first draw, but let's just say Anaheim (13.5%, 135 of the 1000 combinations) won the first draw. Detroit would have a .57% shot (5 out of the remaining 865 non-Anaheim combinations) at the second drawing. So combined they would have a 1.07% chance at picking #5 in that particular scenario.
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My order of preference for Celebrini:
Devils
Sharks
The Artist formerly known as Yotes
Kraken
Ducks
Flames
Habs
Senators
Jackets
Sabres
Blackhawks
Devils
Sharks
The Artist formerly known as Yotes
Kraken
Ducks
Flames
Habs
Senators
Jackets
Sabres
Blackhawks
Devils731
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2008
- 12,358
- 16,527
Interesting. I hadn’t thought about that weird scenario but it checks out.
Stinks if you win the lottery and can’t move up all your spots because some time behind you won the first lottery but it does seem to be the best solution to the problem of the 10 spot move limit.
72.4% chance that the Hawks pick 3rd or 4th, gonna make it even more infuriating when they pick 1st or 2nd.
I think in many cases, you can tell. The best evaluators know the prospects inside and out and describe the players with familiarity, like you would describe a player like Nico Hischier who you have watched countless times. The weaker evaluators play a more cursory role and simply state a player's stats and maybe a notable attribute or two.
Here is my happiness chart for realistic players who could fall to the Devils and be seriously considered at #10 overall:
Ecstatic and Overjoyed:
LD Buium
LD Dickinson
LD Silayev
C Helenius
W Brantsegg-Nygard
W Chernyshov
Happy:
W Iginla
C Hage
Meh:
W Catton
Unhappy:
RD Yakemchuk
RD Parekh
RD Jiricek
W Eiserman
W Greentree
Shoot Me In The Head:
W Connolly
Richer's Ghost
Bourbonite
njdevils1982
Hell Toupée!!!
That was the 2011 lottery where the Devils moved from 8th to 4th. IIRC Larsson was wearing 36 in rookie camp or something and we were all convinced Lou gave it to him on purpose.
The Devils had an 8.5% chance to win the Hischier lottery in 2017 and an 11.5% chance for the Hughes lottery.
Monsieur Verdoux
Registered User
Thoughts on Beckett Sennecke? He has been on the rise since the beginning of the year, and Corey Pronman ranked him 12th in his latest rankings. I don't know anything else about him.
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ZachaFlockaFlame
Registered User
- Aug 24, 2020
- 13,706
- 17,406
Thanks guys for the write ups, they're appreciated for a draft novice like me even though when the Devils have high picks I tend to look at stuff on my own and see what they need the most and work from there.
Would've asked for your opinion in the original post,@StevenToddIves, but I wasn't sure if you were still doing draft work for us here on Devils HF so I really appreciate you going out of your way to reply, lol. As for Nygaard, that's what I pretty much assumed as well from when I watch him. I think he's exactly what this team was looking for after the Carolina series where the spaces this team does not go a regular basis, he'll actually go to and score goals. And he's the perfect compliment to Bratt/Jack imo and would be one of my picks at 10 if he's there. Iginla would be my other pick but like Guadana said, there's a few shortcomings with him that scare me possibly on a Jack/Bratt line but I think he'll be out of this world with them too.
Guadana
Registered User
I don't know about Silayev. His games without the puck in D zone, skating, size- its great to have a player with this profile. But his puckmoving, decision making with the puck and overall stick work skills are below average at best. Of course if he will develop it to the average level he will become great too four defensive D or may be great partner for puck moving right defenseman for our first pair. But he needs work.
Reason why I like Buium and Dickinson more. Dickinson is having everything on the average or above average level for his size. Buium should work on his skatingand on some positioning in d zone without the puck, but high iq and proactive game is a great combo with everything he can of course he isn't big but he us making big things. And a couple of years in gym will making wonders. And rhe doesn't looknlike a player who will miss extra minutes in gym.
Like them more than Helenius. Helenius is great but small. Can't imagine him as first line center or winger who will produce 85-90 points. I can imagine both Buium and Dickinson as first pair defenseman who plays a lot of minutes.
And when I think about our team of this year - one or two(Hamilton +) more top 4 defensemen would make wonders for this team. One more top 6 winger? Not so important.
Reason why I'm separate defenseman from forwards group(of course I'm not talking about Lindstrom, Demidov and Celebrini, I want to win the lottery only for them). Reason why I would be quite happy with Silayev, he is still good enough.
I don't know about Hage pick. I think there would be real top 6 potential players on the table - Nygard, Chernyshov or Helenius. There are no universe where at least one of them will not be available. Or if not - defensemen should be available. And even if I really like Hahe, he is still perfect middle six forward in my view for now. My problem with him is a lack of views I can trust you here because from what I saw its really good.
And I'm trying to live with idea of Yakemchuk. He is very dynamic and his offensive potential on nhl level is good. He isn't softy shmofty Parekh, who doesn't proactively wanted to play in New Jersey by cosplaying of Ty Smith time after time. Yakemchuk is big and is trying to play big. He needs to learn positional game, but if he will be at least average he has Hamilton level potential with his better skating. Im not fully sold on him, because positional game is huge part of the hockey. Its a sauce that make everything better because team doesn't lose the puck or will not be locked in D zone because of one player is constantly losing his position. And the more higher level of the game it is, the higher level of this skill it needs.
Overall it would be huge to draft another top 4-top 2 level defenseman. When I saw what kind of work Simon and Luke could handle this year, I can't be more excited for our hockey team. One more prospect of their level will turn this team into automatical contender when everybody will mature and will be healthy. Tampa Bay had three finals in a raw with their one two three punch with Hedman, Sergachyov and McDonagh. As I remember McDonagh was 9th pick from Montreal, they traded him from rangers, Sergachyov was 9th, Hedman was second. May be im littering with numbers but overall its the picture of high profile three defensemen who can make a damage. And they were all good in D zone. Reason why I would prefer Silayev on the Yakemchuk.
I'm happy we have 10th pick. I'm lazy to watch more games of 20th - second round profile players. Watched one or two or three games. But not ten. Living our live is important.
Guadana
Registered User
Thanks guys for the write ups, they're appreciated for a draft novice like me even though when the Devils have high picks I tend to look at stuff on my own and see what they need the most and work from there.
As for Nygaard, that's what I pretty much assumed as well from when I watch him. I think he's exactly what this team was looking for after the Carolina series where the spaces this team does not go a regular basis, he'll actually go to and score goals. And he's the perfect compliment to Bratt/Jack imo and would be one of my picks at 10 if he's there. Iginla would be my other pick but like Guadana said, there's a few shortcomings with him that scare me possibly on a Jack/Bratt line but I think he'll be out of this world with them too.
Iginla would be great too. Me and Steve are less excited with Yakemchuk or Catton, im just okay with Iginla, Of course Jiricek or Greentree would be way overdrafting but even them are great player to add to this roster. Yakemchuk or Catton - even better. Iginla too. All of them are very good prospects who will immediately be our top-1/top-2/top-3 prospects on the Devils list.
Nygard and Chernyshov would be perfect to add as complimentary forwards. If you think about passing and scoring you should watch Chernyshov tapes, there are many on YouTube His passing tape to tape game in tic tac toe combination is great, he is the best puckhandler through the traffic on the draft, he is good defensively and he is very physical, his separation speed is very good - better than Helenius, much better than Iginla.
The only real problem with Hygard and Chernyshov - both are right wingers. Reason why I'm talking about Nygard from perspective of potential center, reason why I'm calling Helenius as potential Devils pick and trying to focus on him more. So if you like Suzuki from Montreal or Benson from previous draft, who was the only player outside top 3 draft picks who was good enough to play and produce on NHL level, you would like Helenius. May be he isnt the most skilled player on the draft, but his iq and compete level will help to adapt and develop his game. Like I said in previous post, its the thing that helps to be better, and he is good positionally- reason why his line will live through nhl pressure.
And having another center with last name starting from H is fun.
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ZachaFlockaFlame
Registered User
- Aug 24, 2020
- 13,706
- 17,406
Will do, you piqued my interest in Chernyshov, I will definitely look into him these coming weeks. I think I've come back onto Markstrom in a trade since I want to keep this pick a ton and use it for a player. Markstrom + say Nygaard/Chernyshov/Iginla > Saros would be a better use of assets imo
I’d rather have Markstrom and this pick as opposed to Saros (who would also become a big cap hit for 5-7 years to come) and major assets that would be required to obtain him…or just flat out losing this pick in a one for one.
I am seeing sites that have Lindstrom dropping. Is this because of the injury problems?
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Beckett Sennecke is a player I'd be talking a lot about if the Devils were picking in the 15-20 range.
There is no doubt Sennecke is an extremely intriguing prospect, but he's definitely a project and a long, long way from his ceiling. I love picks like this later in the 1st round and in later rounds, because I feel he has a very high ceiling which makes him worth the risk more and more as the draft progresses.
Sennecke shot up from (I think) 5'10 to 6'3 or something in the past year and a half and it shows. Though he shows natural athleticism, he's still a bit gangly and plays much more of a finesse game; he doesn't really know how to use his size and he's not very strong for this size.
If any player in the 2024 class needs 3 years of physical and weight training, it's Sennecke. He's pretty easily knocked off pucks and beaten in physical battles by smaller young men, but again, due to the ludicrous growth spurt it's tough to fault him.
Let's talk about what he brings to the table -- at 6'3, he's an excellent skater with a very good shot, the capability for high-end vision and a high offensive IQ. This is an extremely intriguing combination. If everything comes together, he mixes the skill and physical attributes to become a highly productive top 6 wing at the NHL level. Sennecke becomes even more intriguing when we consider that physical training with NHL teams could potentially bump his skating up two or three levels. This is a kid who skates well despite the fact he is still getting used to his own body. The potential is there.
The converse is that Sennecke still plays a perimeter game, and tends to disappear against physical opposition while not offering any sort of 200-foot consistency which can justify his existence when he's not hitting the scoresheets.
Ultimately, we have a high-upside RW with a looooong way to go, which again -- makes him a very good pick late in the first round. But when the Devils pick at #10? I think it would be an absurd stretch to consider him ahead of Brantseggp-Nygard, Chernyshov or Helenius.
So the answer is Sennecke is a player with whom there's a lot to like and root for, but he's probably 3-4 years away and there are some concerns to keep in mind. He'd make a lot of sense for a team which can afford to be patient with him in the 20s like Colorado or Toronto.
He's not dropping too far, that's for sure.
He's a high-skill 6'4 power forward who plays a Tkachuk-style in-your-face game at center or wing at extremely high speed. He's smart, extremely tenacious, and can absolutely blast the puck. He's nowhere near a stratospheric talent ceiling.
I see Lindstrom going top 2, although in a draft with this much uncertainty and so much high-end talent on top, it would't be a crime if he fell to 3-5. But it's extremely unlikely he drops out of the top 5 altogether.
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