NFL: 2024 NFL draft discussion thread, Draft begins 4/25 8pm, 4/26 6pm, 4/27 12pm

[BB88]

Kelce isn’t paid like a top receiver though. His current deal only had a $20m guarantee. He’ll make $13m in 2024.

His point about paying top receivers isn’t wrong, though, but quarterbacks usually still need them to attain their top levels. When they leave, hopefully the QB is great enough to pull others up with him.

Neither will these rookies

You don’t need SF like weapons but the fact is when you have an elite QB+ elite Wr you are in the race, every year. That’s not some Madden stuff, it’s real life NFL

Bills issue isn’t that they paid Allen& Diggs but because they have them they have a chance to win any game on any given sunday. You can say the same with Burrow and Chase, same with Mahomes& Kelce

As I’ve explained numerous times, the Chiefs don’t waste their cap room on WRs. That’s why they dumped Tyreke Hill on Miami. And it’s why they pick up trash like Kadarius Toney and Meek Hardman off the scrap heap.

Bengals caught lightening in a bottle when they lucked out with Joe Burr and Chase on rookie contracts. Keyword: ROOKIE CONTRACTS. Once they had to start paying Joe Burr his big contract in addition to Tee Higgins bloated contract, they disappeared. As I mentioned previously, the Bengals situation is only going to get worse when they appease Chase with a $30M boat anchor.

Buffalo has been getting progressively worse and they barely squeaked into the playoffs this year. You may be delusional enough to still believe the Bills are “contenders” but the cold hard reality is that until they divest themselves of that cancer Stef Diggs and his ridiculous contract, Buffalo is a borderline fringe playoff team.

I’n tired of that Chiefs garbage, they have a TE many see as GOAT

Begals season was lost on injuries, not because they paid Burrows

I don’t think Bills are top tier contenders but they’ve gone toe to toe with the Chiefs in the playoffs 2 times?
Their reason for struggles is that they paid Allen& Diggs and not the insane amount of injuries they run into and paying older Dmen?

Your points just don’t make any sense at all and I’m tired of repeating those

 

[GKJ]

As I’ve explained numerous times, the Chiefs don’t waste their cap room on WRs. That’s why they dumped Tyreke Hill on Miami. And it’s why they pick up trash like Kadarius Toney and Meek Hardman off the scrap heap.

Bengals caught lightening in a bottle when they lucked out with Joe Burr and Chase on rookie contracts. Keyword: ROOKIE CONTRACTS. Once they had to start paying Joe Burr his big contract in addition to Tee Higgins bloated contract, they disappeared. As I mentioned previously, the Bengals situation is only going to get worse when they appease Chase with a $30M boat anchor.

Buffalo has been getting progressively worse and they barely squeaked into the playoffs this year. You may be delusional enough to still believe the Bills are “contenders” but the cold hard reality is that until they divest themselves of that cancer Stef Diggs and his ridiculous contract, Buffalo is a borderline fringe playoff team.

Burrow has only played one year under his new contract and didn’t even get to finish it. He hardly started it. Higgins didn’t get a new deal yet, he’s on the franchise tag.

 

[Donnie740]

Their reason for struggles is that they paid Allen& Diggs and not the insane amount of injuries they run into and paying older Dmen?

Paying those two $60M is EXACTLY what the problem is in Buffalo.

More specifically, the $28M boat anchor contract they gave to Diggs is the real issue. Joke Allen is actually on a manageable QB contract of $30M.

Because of that, Buffalo is forced to have mediocre scrubs starting and their depth is non-existent to fill in for any injuries.

You cannot hide a mediocre player on defence. The offensive game plan will scheme to get the guy into one-on-one matchups to isolate and badly exploit.

Same thing with a mediocre OLineman. Defences are going to go right at that feast on the guy.

But you can get away with a mediocre minimum salary WR. The defense will still have to devote a DB to cover him because regardless of how slow-footed and undersized the WR is, he cannot be left uncovered and wide open.

So there’s absolutely NOTHING a defense can do to try and target a mediocre minimum salary scrap heap WR.

With a QB/WR duo eating up 25% of your available cap like Diggs and Allen are, it’s almost impossible to contend unless you’ve got a few Micah Parsons-type draft picks playing at an all-pro level while still on their cheap rookie contracts.

 

[Dr Salt]

Paying those two $60M is EXACTLY what the problem is in Buffalo.

More specifically, the $28M boat anchor contract they gave to Diggs is the real issue. Joke Allen is actually on a manageable QB contract of $30M.

Because of that, Buffalo is forced to have mediocre scrubs starting and their depth is non-existent to fill in for any injuries.

You cannot hide a mediocre player on defence. The offensive game plan will scheme to get the guy into one-on-one matchups to isolate and badly exploit.

Same thing with a mediocre OLineman. Defences are going to go right at that feast on the guy.

But you can get away with a mediocre minimum salary WR. The defense will still have to devote a DB to cover him because regardless of how slow-footed and undersized the WR is, he cannot be left uncovered and wide open.

So there’s absolutely NOTHING a defense can do to try and target a mediocre minimum salary scrap heap WR.

With a QB/WR duo eating up 25% of your available cap like Diggs and Allen are, it’s almost impossible to contend unless you’ve got a few Micah Parsons-type draft picks playing at an all-pro level while still on their cheap rookie contracts.

Their actual paid is not their cap number. If you want to blame an anchor problem for the Bills issues go to Von Miller or Tre White (now cut but still big dead cap). Lots of older declining defenders who they extended from when that unit peaked in 2017-20 filling the roster and Brandon Beane's poor draft record as well.

 

[Donnie740]

Their actual paid is not their cap number. If you want to blame an anchor problem for the Bills issues go to Von Miller or Tre White (now cut but still big dead cap). Lots of older declining defenders who they extended from when that unit peaked in 2017-20 filling the roster and Brandon Beane's poor draft record as well.

I’m fully aware of that, my friend. The “actual paid” is irrelevant to me - - cost against the cap is the only thing that matters.

Diggs’ cap hit for 2024 is $27,854,000. That’s a horrifically bad contract. What makes it even worse is that Diggs has a terrible attitude - - constant distraction, always complaining - - and his clearly declining productivity.

Don’t be spooked by “dead money” - - cutting Tre White will cost Buffalo $6M in dead money but it takes his $10M salary off the books so the net is $4M savings against the cap. That’s a good thing.

Giving 33yr old Von Miller a SIX (6) year contract was an asinine mistake, but at least Miller has enough of a conscience to agree on an $8.5M salary cut.

Do you think that entitled puss Diggs would ever agree to a pay cut? Not a chance. Diggs would just bitch and moan for more money.

 

[Dr Salt]

I’m fully aware of that, my friend. The “actual paid” is irrelevant to me - - cost against the cap is the only thing that matters.

Diggs’ cap hit for 2024 is $27,854,000. That’s a horrifically bad contract. What makes it even worse is that Diggs has a terrible attitude - - constant distraction, always complaining - - and his clearly declining productivity.

Don’t be spooked by “dead money” - - cutting Tre White will cost Buffalo $6M in dead money but it takes his $10M salary off the books so the net is $4M savings against the cap. That’s a good thing.

Giving 33yr old Von Miller a SIX (6) year contract was an asinine mistake, but at least Miller has enough of a conscience to agree on an $8.5M salary cut.

Do you think that entitled puss Diggs would ever agree to a pay cut? Not a chance. Diggs would just bitch and moan for more money.

Is a $27M cap charge for your WR1 worse than drafting zero pro-bowl-caliber players after Josh Allen? Because I think one is a much bigger reason for Buffalo's issues than the other. Also yes I will be fair to Kincaid because he can be very good but still.

 

[BB88]

Paying those two $60M is EXACTLY what the problem is in Buffalo.

More specifically, the $28M boat anchor contract they gave to Diggs is the real issue. Joke Allen is actually on a manageable QB contract of $30M.

Because of that, Buffalo is forced to have mediocre scrubs starting and their depth is non-existent to fill in for any injuries.

You cannot hide a mediocre player on defence. The offensive game plan will scheme to get the guy into one-on-one matchups to isolate and badly exploit.

Same thing with a mediocre OLineman. Defences are going to go right at that feast on the guy.

But you can get away with a mediocre minimum salary WR. The defense will still have to devote a DB to cover him because regardless of how slow-footed and undersized the WR is, he cannot be left uncovered and wide open.

So there’s absolutely NOTHING a defense can do to try and target a mediocre minimum salary scrap heap WR.

With a QB/WR duo eating up 25% of your available cap like Diggs and Allen are, it’s almost impossible to contend unless you’ve got a few Micah Parsons-type draft picks playing at an all-pro level while still on their cheap rookie contracts.

It definitely isn’t, it’s the reason they’ve gone toe to toe with the Chiefs x2
Their problem is that they run into amount of injuries on defense that should automatically take you off the race, they lose all their key Dmen and the one they paid big money looked terrible coming off the injury.
Yet they can still challenge a team many consider as dynasty

You complain how Bills have never won, yet never mention to whom their lost to…. Bengals and Chiefs

& let’s take your Chiefs example. Do you think the Chiefs would have felt comfortable in trading Hill away if they didn’t have cheat code Kelce on the roster? Absolutely not

Or let’s talk about the Ravens, they are an elite team, elite defense but they come up short and what do people complain the most? Lamar not having enough offensive weapons..

I have not once said you need multiple elite weapons on top of elite QB but especially in the AFC having an elite QB+ elite Wr is a must, it’s a fact, not some Madden fantasy

Chiefs vs Ravens
Bengals vs Chiefs
Bengals vs Chiefs
Chiefs vs Bills

You can see the trend pretty easily there but no ”it’s just some Madden game stuff”

If elite Oline+ good QB is better why we never see it being successfull in the AFC?
Who are the next years Super Bowl favourites again from the AFC? None of the teams with good QB..

The lines are very important, no one is saying otherwise, but you are underselling a great amount of what an advantage elite QB and elite Wr gives your team. Based on true succession in the NFL we see

So in short if you want to be successfull in todays NFL you must have a game changer on offense to pair up with your QB, if you are in the AFC the QB has to be top5 tier basically

Edit
Went to check
Next years AFC favourites
1- Chiefs
2- Ravens
3- Bills
4- Bengals
5- Houston
What do they have in common? Where are the teams with elite lines+ good QB’s ranked?

 

[The Note]

Two things as it relates to the Chiefs in this whole WR/OL discussion that feel important to note:
They were 100% prepared to give Hill a big, new money deal but that blew up once the Raiders gave Adams his new deal and Tyreek wanted to beat it.
The Chiefs plan at WR didn’t work. They looked awful on offense for huge swaths of the year because they relied on a 33 year old TE who hurt himself right before the season and a bunch of bad/unproven WRs. If Rice didn’t become a solid WR almost immediately they would’ve been completely screwed.

They won a SB on the back of an all-time QB playing more or less perfectly for 4 games, a truly elite defense, and narrowing down the offense to 3 weapons (Rice, Kelce, Pacheco). That’s not really replicable - even the Chiefs seem to know that - and I think taking much of anything beyond “one of the 2-3 best QBs of all time and an elite defense can win you a SB” out of this Chiefs season is misguided.

 

[WeThreeKings]

how much time left OTC?

 

[StreetHawk]

Two things as it relates to the Chiefs in this whole WR/OL discussion that feel important to note:
They were 100% prepared to give Hill a big, new money deal but that blew up once the Raiders gave Adams his new deal and Tyreek wanted to beat it.
The Chiefs plan at WR didn’t work. They looked awful on offense for huge swaths of the year because they relied on a 33 year old TE who hurt himself right before the season and a bunch of bad/unproven WRs. If Rice didn’t become a solid WR almost immediately they would’ve been completely screwed.

They won a SB on the back of an all-time QB playing more or less perfectly for 4 games, a truly elite defense, and narrowing down the offense to 3 weapons (Rice, Kelce, Pacheco). That’s not really replicable - even the Chiefs seem to know that - and I think taking much of anything beyond “one of the 2-3 best QBs of all time and an elite defense can win you a SB” out of this Chiefs season is misguided.

I agree. And people underestimate the Pats WR trio of Edelman, Hogan, Amandolo. None on their own is elite as a true WR1, but they were all very good route runners and were used interchangeably in the system.

For young QBs in years 1&2 aim to get the OL solidified first.

 

[BB88]

With Arizona being open to trading the 4th overall I do hope it ends up happening

That would drop Harrison down and we could see him put up magical numbers. Herbert is just made for him

 

[Dr Salt]

Two things as it relates to the Chiefs in this whole WR/OL discussion that feel important to note:
They were 100% prepared to give Hill a big, new money deal but that blew up once the Raiders gave Adams his new deal and Tyreek wanted to beat it.
The Chiefs plan at WR didn’t work. They looked awful on offense for huge swaths of the year because they relied on a 33 year old TE who hurt himself right before the season and a bunch of bad/unproven WRs. If Rice didn’t become a solid WR almost immediately they would’ve been completely screwed.

They won a SB on the back of an all-time QB playing more or less perfectly for 4 games, a truly elite defense, and narrowing down the offense to 3 weapons (Rice, Kelce, Pacheco). That’s not really replicable - even the Chiefs seem to know that - and I think taking much of anything beyond “one of the 2-3 best QBs of all time and an elite defense can win you a SB” out of this Chiefs season is misguided.

Should also add it was Christian Kirk that started this market explosion. And they got an all-pro db from the traded lol.

 

[Donnie740]

The Chiefs plan at WR didn’t work. They looked awful on offense for huge swaths of the year because they relied on a 33 year old TE who hurt himself right before the season and a bunch of bad/unproven WRs.

It’s impossible to argue with facts, my friend - - TWO (2) straight championships since they got rid of the overpaid Tyreke Hill.

The Chiefs decision to spread their cap room across the defence and OLine instead of dumping it all into one WR was clearly the correct decision and it worked perfectly.

 

[DaaaaB's]

It’s impossible to argue with facts, my friend - - TWO (2) straight championships since they got rid of the overpaid Tyreke Hill.

The Chiefs decision to spread their cap room across the defence and OLine instead of dumping it all into one WR was clearly the correct decision and it worked perfectly.

So receivers have been getting massive contracts for a whole two years now and you think it's a fact that you can't win with one. Think you might be jumping the gun a bit on that one. Nevermind the fact that Buffalo nearly and probably should've beat the Chiefs the past two playoffs. But yeah I'm sure they lost those games because of the Diggs contract.

 

[Romang67]

Just have the GOAT QB. It's not that complicated. Why don't more teams do that?

 

[Tony Romo]

as I've mentioned previously, when the two greatest players at their position are your strongest arguing point. It really isn't that strong of a point.


Anywho, draft prospects.

There's been something I've been thinking about as I listen to more high school recruiting podcasts. There's a tendency for some of the top QBs to bust going from High School to College, because they haven't faced adversity. Usually just playing on a crazy team, don't get touched etc.

Applying that point. I almost feel like people are ignoring these things about Maye? UNC didn't really have a lot of talent, bad OL, changed OC's and he was still REALLY good but it almost feels like he's getting dinged for it?

out of the big 6, he definitely had the worst situation. Which is kinda why I like him the best. (Caleb is really really good though.)

It's also why I don't fully see the hype with McCarthy cause like... I need some adversity??

 

[StreetHawk]

That's kind of why when you compare numbers of guys who are in great situations in college that they should absolutely dominate if they have elite talent around them. If you don't see it with a great cast, how will that QB make it when the talent isn't as good.

Same with Levis last season. 2021 was better for him, but then a combo of things went awry for him with a drop in talent around him and getting dinged up.

That's why it's so hard to evaluate QBs.

 

[BB88]

It’s impossible to argue with facts, my friend - - TWO (2) straight championships since they got rid of the overpaid Tyreke Hill.

The Chiefs decision to spread their cap room across the defence and OLine instead of dumping it all into one WR was clearly the correct decision and it worked perfectly.

Can you explain why we don’t see any success with your plan but that’s the model that everyone should work with and building with elite offensive talent doesn’t work, except every year….

 

[Donnie740]

Why do so many people continue to embarrass themselves by trying to argue against facts?

As I’ve explained numerous times, unless you have a QB on a cheap rookie contract, it’s virtually IMPOSSIBLE to win a Super Bowl when you’ve got a guy with a top 10 cap hit among WRs.

Only ONE (1) time in the past FIFTEEN (15) seasons has that occurred.

• Super Bowl 2009 season - NO vs Ind Reg Wayne #9 WR cap hit (lost SB)
• Superbowl 2010 season - GB vs Pitt. No WRs in top 10
• Superbowl 2011 season - NYG vs NE. No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2012 season - Bal vs SF. No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2013 season - Seahawks v. Broncos - Sidney Rice #3 WR cap hit (won SB) Russ Wilson on rookie deal
• Superbowl 2014 season - NE vs Sea. No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2015 season - Den vs Car Demaryus Thomas #3 WR cap hit (won SB)
• Superbowl 2016 season - Pats vs Atl No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2017 season - Pats v. Eagles No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2018 season - Pats vs Rams No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2019season - KC vs SF Sam Watkins #1 WR cap hit (won SB) Mahomes on rookie deal
• Superbowl 2020 season - TB vs KC Tyrek Hill #3 WR cap hit Sam Watkins #5 WR cap hit (Lost SB) Mahomes on rookie deal
• Superbowl 2021 season - Rams vs Cinn No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2022 season - KC vs Eagles No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2023 season - KC vs SF. No WRs with top 10 cap hit

The facts speak for themselves - - teams CANNOT be successful if they’ve got a WR among the top 10 cap hits.

 

[Dr Salt]

That's kind of why when you compare numbers of guys who are in great situations in college that they should absolutely dominate if they have elite talent around them. If you don't see it with a great cast, how will that QB make it when the talent isn't as good.

Same with Levis last season. 2021 was better for him, but then a combo of things went awry for him with a drop in talent around him and getting dinged up.

That's why it's so hard to evaluate QBs.

It's why JJ is a tricky eval this year. Looked solid in passing situations but not surprisingly Michigan a team with bad tackle and receiver play and a strong interior offensive line and a group of runningbacks didn't lean on him. The situation does a lot. Might also have a lot to do with why the Vikings think they can get so much more out of him.

 

[BB88]

Why do so many people continue to embarrass themselves by trying to argue against facts?

As I’ve explained numerous times, unless you have a QB on a cheap rookie contract, it’s virtually IMPOSSIBLE to win a Super Bowl when you’ve got a guy with a top 10 cap hit among WRs.

Only ONE (1) time in the past FIFTEEN (15) seasons has that occurred.

• Super Bowl 2009 season - NO vs Ind Reg Wayne #9 WR cap hit (lost SB)
• Superbowl 2010 season - GB vs Pitt. No WRs in top 10
• Superbowl 2011 season - NYG vs NE. No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2012 season - Bal vs SF. No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2013 season - Seahawks v. Broncos - Sidney Rice #3 WR cap hit (won SB) Russ Wilson on rookie deal
• Superbowl 2014 season - NE vs Sea. No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2015 season - Den vs Car Demaryus Thomas #3 WR cap hit (won SB)
• Superbowl 2016 season - Pats vs Atl No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2017 season - Pats v. Eagles No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2018 season - Pats vs Rams No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2019season - KC vs SF Sam Watkins #1 WR cap hit (won SB) Mahomes on rookie deal
• Superbowl 2020 season - TB vs KC Tyrek Hill #3 WR cap hit Sam Watkins #5 WR cap hit (Lost SB) Mahomes on rookie deal
• Superbowl 2021 season - Rams vs Cinn No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2022 season - KC vs Eagles No WRs with top 10 cap hit
• Superbowl 2023 season - KC vs SF. No WRs with top 10 cap hit

The facts speak for themselves - - teams CANNOT be successful if they’ve got a WR among the top 10 cap hits.

Facts say you need to have an elite offensive weapon/threat in order to win or compete in the NFL. That’s a fact

I don’t even understand why you try to argue otherwise


But here you learn that you shouldn’t draft an elite Wr high when they are cheap but you can’t either pay for them during FA market. Yet as the facts say you need one to win a Super Bowl

This logic makes so much sense

Elite Oline+ good QB is rather better for success, yet they are never successfull..

 

[GKJ]

Sidney Rice was a top 3 cap hit at WR, how did that happen?

 

[sigma six]

Sidney Rice was a top 3 cap hit at WR, how did that happen?

He certainly got paid, based on one good season with MN. Guy was hurt regularly and retired early, due to concussions iirc.

 

[Donnie740]

Facts say you need to have an elite offensive weapon/threat in order to win or compete in the NFL. That’s a fact

I don’t even understand why you try to argue otherwise


But here you learn that you shouldn’t draft an elite Wr high when they are cheap but you can’t either pay for them during FA market. Yet as the facts say you need one to win a Super Bowl

This logic makes so much sense

Elite Oline+ good QB is rather better for success, yet they are never successfull..

As I’ve explained numerous times it’s a terrible idea to draft a WR in the early 1st round because there’s way more WR vslue to be had in later rounds.

Once again, facts support my comments.

Let’s start by looking at the top five WR cap hits for this year:

Tyreke Hill - - 5th round draft pick
Cooper Kupp - - 3rd round draft pick
Deebo Samuel - - 2nd round draft pick
Stefon Diggs - - 5th round draft pick
Chris Godwin - - 3rd round draft pick

These guys got paid because the produced huge numbers while on ultra cheap rookie deals. Not a single 1st round pick among them.

Puka Nacua was last year’s top rookie WR and he was drafted in the 5th round proving once again how asinine it it to draft a WR early in the 1st round.

You keep spouting about “facts” but provide ZERO substance to support your rambling nonsense.

 

[BB88]

As I’ve explained numerous times it’s a terrible idea to draft a WR in the early 1st round because there’s way more WR vslue to be had in later rounds.

Once again, facts support my comments.

Let’s start by looking at the top five WR cap hits for this year:

Tyreke Hill - - 5th round draft pick
Cooper Kupp - - 3rd round draft pick
Deebo Samuel - - 2nd round draft pick
Stefon Diggs - - 5th round draft pick
Chris Godwin - - 3rd round draft pick

These guys got paid because the produced huge numbers while on ultra cheap rookie deals. Not a single 1st round pick among them.

Puka Nacua was last year’s top rookie WR and he was drafted in the 5th round proving once again how asinine it it to draft a WR early in the 1st round.

You keep spouting about “facts” but provide ZERO substance to support your rambling nonsense.

You don’t have a damm clue about being able to get a elite Wr on the 5th round, if you knew they wouldn’t go there

You need skill in this league and all the best teams in the league have elite talent on offense

If you know you have a chance at Chase or Jeffersson you better take it, especially a team like the Chargers. Those are franchise changing players

Edit
& you can find elite talent for any position from later rounds, so why pick in the top10 at all?