2024 Draft Discussion

[Rzombo4 prez]

Not a very deep draft. In my opinion it's the worst draft since 2018, which was also a thin at center, defense-heavy draft.

That draft had zero forwards of consequence drafted after #14 in that first round. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen with this draft. I'm really hoping I'm wrong since we're picking at #15 and it doesn't look like Yzerman is going to trade

How do we know he isn't looking to trade it?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

How do we know he isn't looking to trade it?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Right. The approach to drafting imo should be: I wanna draft what I will not get on the open market/what will be insanely costly. You can get your hands on a player comparable to Nygard outside of the draft. He'll be older, but can help you right away (Compher-like production). So flipping the #15 together with Berggren and Maatta to make the numbers work, might be the play here.

The biggest obstacle to moving 15 OA is the quality of the draft. You don't want to make the pick because the draft gets thin at that point. Yet, you somehow expect someone else to want that pick and a AAAA forward who couldn't stick on a mid-table roster.

If a proposed trade starts with an asset you don't want, chances are it isn't very realistic.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

Is the Draft forward group this year weak, or is the defense group just particularly strong? Draft history suggests it doesn't really matter, If anything, the number of defensemen expected to be picked in the top 14 could give Wings a chance to draft a better forward than might be available most years.

There could be six or seven defensemen drafted before the Wings' turn, so they should have a chance to pick a top 10 forward, probably the eighth or ninth off the board. Below is a list of the 8-10 drafted forwards from 2011-20. About half of the 30 are or have been top six players. There's only one year (2016) where at least one top six player wasn't selected in that range. Six of the 30 are busts (Bartschi, Ritchie, Perlini, Denisenko, Gurianov, Brown) and one other player (McLeod) has legal issues, but everyone else is playing regular minutes and only a few in fourth line or limited roles.

Draft quality may be viewed as good or bad from year to year, but most drafts are similar once you get past the one or two obvious future stars and the top 6-10. Where the Wings will pick the pattern is pretty consistent (9/10 years): at least one good forward is drafted in that range. The quality of the Wings' pick will probably come down to scouting (or luck), not perceived strength of the group. The first seven forwards this season could be Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, Iginla, Catton, Helenius, Sennecke. That would leave a next three consensus group of Eiserman, Greentree, MBN (or Connelly). If that's the way it goes, odds are at least one of those three in the 8-10 range wil be a useful/good/very good top six player.

Bolded are the highest scoring players drafted in that 8-10 forward range by year.

2011: Bartschi (13), JT Miller (15)., Armia (16)
2012: Hertl (17), Teravainen (18), Laughton (20)
2013: Domi (12), Wennberg (14), Lazar (17)
2014: Ritchie (10), Fiala (11), Perlini (12)
2015: Crouse (11), Gurianov (12), DeBrusk (14)
2016: Jost (10), Brown (11), M. McLeod (12)
2017: Tippett (10), Vilardi (11). Necas (12)
2018: Dellandrea (13), Farabee (14). Denisenko (15)
2019: Boldy (12), Caufield (15), Newhook (16)
2020: Perfetti (10), Lundell (12), Jarvis (13)

 

[schuelma24]

Not a very deep draft. In my opinion it's the worst draft since 2018, which was also a thin at center, defense-heavy draft.

That draft had zero forwards of consequence drafted after #14 in that first round. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen with this draft. I'm really hoping I'm wrong since we're picking at #15 and it doesn't look like Yzerman is going to trade

I'd quibble a bit with this description after looking at various lists, etc. the last few weeks. It's a weird draft - definitely not great at the very top, especially compared to last year, and it also looks like it's not very deep once you get past the middle of the first round - but for the Wings limited purposes - needing to find offense with the 15th pick, I think its setting up pretty nicely. Because of the likely run on D, it's very possible the Wings could get Eiserman or Sennekke or possibly even one of Catton/Helenius if they drop due to size concerns.

I'd put it this way - last year the picks 13-16 were Benson, Yager, Wood, and Honzek.

IMO right now I'd sake Eiserman or Sennekke over all of them except Benson.

 

[heyfolks]

In this thread, we ALL ARE!

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I'd quibble a bit with this description after looking at various lists, etc. the last few weeks. It's a weird draft - definitely not great at the very top, especially compared to last year, and it also looks like it's not very deep once you get past the middle of the first round - but for the Wings limited purposes - needing to find offense with the 15th pick, I think its setting up pretty nicely. Because of the likely run on D, it's very possible the Wings could get Eiserman or Sennekke or possibly even one of Catton/Helenius if they drop due to size concerns.

I'd put it this way - last year the picks 13-16 were Benson, Yager, Wood, and Honzek.

IMO right now I'd sake Eiserman or Sennekke over all of them except Benson.

Serious? I wouldn't put any of them in the top 20 in 2023 except maaaaybe Eiserman.

 

[schuelma24]

Serious? I wouldn't put any of them in the top 20 in 2023 except maaaaybe Eiserman.

Agree to disagree I guess. I don’t think Yager, Wood, and Honzek are trending that great.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Agree to disagree I guess. I don’t think Yager, Wood, and Honzek are trending that great.

Compare their draft years to the draft years of the players you mentioned, not their D+1.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I'd quibble a bit with this description after looking at various lists, etc. the last few weeks. It's a weird draft - definitely not great at the very top, especially compared to last year, and it also looks like it's not very deep once you get past the middle of the first round - but for the Wings limited purposes - needing to find offense with the 15th pick, I think its setting up pretty nicely. Because of the likely run on D, it's very possible the Wings could get Eiserman or Sennekke or possibly even one of Catton/Helenius if they drop due to size concerns.

I'd put it this way - last year the picks 13-16 were Benson, Yager, Wood, and Honzek.

IMO right now I'd sake Eiserman or Sennekke over all of them except Benson.

Have you actually watched Eiserman play a full game?

 

[SantosHalper]

https://x.com/IIHFHockey/status/1788971867635683542

 

[letsgowings9999]

"Wish we had that bruins 1st to move up and grab another forward ." That's how this conversation got started and i pointed out, that already happen. DeBrincat is that forward. He's smaller, older, proven NHL player version of Eiserman. Or should we say that Eiserman is next DeBrincat. Eiserman-Larkin-Raymond is basically the same line as DeBrincat-Larkin-Raymond. Im starting to sense strong case of grass is gneener-syndrome.

Group 6 of what? Veleno's or elite ceiling players? That Bruins pick was put to use when we acquired Cat, we didn't need to find him.

And the reason why Cat didn't get 8 years is because Yzerman doesn't hand them out like candy. Stamkos, Hedman and Larkin seems to be the only ones so far.

He'll be gone in 3 years and has zero future on this team but it's ok you'll realize that in a few years

Veleno sucks so Obviously not. 4th liners are a dime a dozen. again he wont be here longterm

He didnt hand it out cause hes not sold on debrincat. Plain and simple

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Tij Iginla.

 

[letsgowings9999]

Evidently New Jersey is willing to trade pick #10.

Snapshots: Devils, Leonard, Berube

Notes from around the NHL including New Jersey being open to moving their first-round pick, a potential suitor for Craig Berube, and more.

www.prohockeyrumors.com

Ya heard that in French radio here in mtl cause they were talking about getting askarov from preds and how nj would deal it for a goalie

No idea if we'd be able to land askarov and flip him but I doubt it

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

I am hoping Eisermann falls to 15, or that we can jump a few spots to grab him. Yes, he has high bust potential, but he also has 40-50 goal potential. We have enough "safe" guys to start taking risks, especially with a 15OA in a weak draft.

 

[heyfolks]

This sounds like your prototypical Yzerman type pick with the 1st pick

That would have to be a first for Norway. They don't have much of a history in the NHL.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I think with MBN playing at the WC, he's not going to fall to 15th. Alas

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think with MBN playing at the WC, he's not going to fall to 15th. Alas

@SantosHalper just posted MBN's goal today earlier today. He looks realgud.

 

[Gniwder]

No argument on BM, just using him to make the point in the two players I covet in the draft. A trade with the Wings 2nd and Berrgren would move up much higher than 36.

I would take Hage for Burger + 2nd. Burger needs a change in scenery just like Sprong did. He'll realize that wherever he goes the coach is gonna tell him the same damn thing.

 

[letsgowings9999]

@SantosHalper just posted MBN's goal today earlier today. He looks realgud.

I think theres a good chance hes there. Either way I think someone realgud will be there

I'll be way off but for sake of it

Sj celebrini
Chi levshunov
Ana demidov
Cbj lindstrom
Mtl iginla
Utah buium
Ott silayev
Sea Dickinson
Calgary helenius
Nj eiserman
Phil sennecke
Minn parekh
Sj catton

Leaves us nygard connelly parascak greentree hage jiricek as options . Always a chance a cotton slides or eiserman(doubt he makes it past 14 ,apparently big buddies with celebrini) if wete lucky sennecke (doubt it)
I think we'll have a chance to get a good one

I would take Hage for Burger + 2nd. Burger needs a change in scenery just like Sprong did. He'll realize that wherever he goes the coach is gonna tell him the same damn thing.

Doubt berggren and pick 47 jumps us up 30 picks

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

MBN should be who the wings go after a ton, also has high center potential if we wanted to go that route at some point. No idea why on certain lists he’s falling past 15, makes no sense to me. To me he is top 10 worthy.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

https://thewincolumn.ca/2024/04/15/michael-brandsegg-nygard-2024-nhl-draft-profile/

Another MBN article. I've been on the train for a while. Now I'm conducting it.

 

[letsgowings9999]

MBN should be who the wings go after a ton, also has high center potential if we wanted to go that route at some point. No idea why on certain lists he’s falling past 15, makes no sense to me. To me he is top 10 worthy.

If hes in the top 10, 14 whose sliding ??? Im not a pro but the only ones I can maybe see sliding from the list I did above is eiserman and catton. I'd love to have sennecke as an option but don't see it

Is catton a sure 15 pick if nygard is gone? Kids anorexic,think was like 155ish when I checked

 

[Gniwder]

Doubt berggren and pick 47 jumps us up 30 picks

Me too, just saying if the trade is there I'd do it. It was not my idea.

I mean if Taylor Swift jumped on me naked, I'd do her too. Probably just as likely to occur.

 

[Gniwder]

If hes in the top 10, 14 whose sliding ??? Im not a pro but the only ones I can maybe see sliding from the list I did above is eiserman and catton. I'd love to have sennecke as an option but don't see it

Is catton a sure 15 pick if nygard is gone? Kids anorexic,think was like 155ish when I checked

Most recent update has him at 5'11" 170 lbs. Raymond was listed at 5'10" 165 at the draft.

Kid has better WHL stats than Debrincat did in the OHL.