Is the Draft forward group this year weak, or is the defense group just particularly strong? Draft history suggests it doesn't really matter, If anything, the number of defensemen expected to be picked in the top 14 could give Wings a chance to draft a better forward than might be available most years.
There could be six or seven defensemen drafted before the Wings' turn, so they should have a chance to pick a top 10 forward, probably the eighth or ninth off the board. Below is a list of the 8-10 drafted forwards from 2011-20. About half of the 30 are or have been top six players. There's only one year (2016) where at least one top six player wasn't selected in that range. Six of the 30 are busts (Bartschi, Ritchie, Perlini, Denisenko, Gurianov, Brown) and one other player (McLeod) has legal issues, but everyone else is playing regular minutes and only a few in fourth line or limited roles.
Draft quality may be viewed as good or bad from year to year, but most drafts are similar once you get past the one or two obvious future stars and the top 6-10. Where the Wings will pick the pattern is pretty consistent (9/10 years): at least one good forward is drafted in that range. The quality of the Wings' pick will probably come down to scouting (or luck), not perceived strength of the group. The first seven forwards this season could be Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, Iginla, Catton, Helenius, Sennecke. That would leave a next three consensus group of Eiserman, Greentree, MBN (or Connelly). If that's the way it goes, odds are at least one of those three in the 8-10 range wil be a useful/good/very good top six player.
Bolded are the highest scoring players drafted in that 8-10 forward range by year.
2011: Bartschi (13), JT Miller (15)., Armia (16)
2012: Hertl (17), Teravainen (18), Laughton (20)
2013: Domi (12), Wennberg (14), Lazar (17)
2014: Ritchie (10), Fiala (11), Perlini (12)
2015: Crouse (11), Gurianov (12), DeBrusk (14)
2016: Jost (10), Brown (11), M. McLeod (12)
2017: Tippett (10), Vilardi (11). Necas (12)
2018: Dellandrea (13), Farabee (14). Denisenko (15)
2019: Boldy (12), Caufield (15), Newhook (16)
2020: Perfetti (10), Lundell (12), Jarvis (13)