2024 Capitals' -37 goal differential and the historically "worst" teams to make the playoffs

[The Panther]

As many will have noticed, this year's (2023-24) Washington Capitals clinched a playoff spot, with an unusual -37 goal differential, and the Islanders with a -18. I don't suggest that these two clubs were particularly "bad" in any way, but it is a bit unusual in the current era (I think) to see a -37 team qualifying.

So, maybe I have two specific questions relating to this, and then of course the thread can go in any direction besides:

1) What is the worst club to ever qualify for the playoffs in terms of goal differential and/or overall record? (I recall, when I was 11 or 12, the 1987-88 Maple Leafs making it in with a -72 goal differential and a horrible .372 record.)

2) What is the biggest gap between a "bad" club that made it in and a "good" club that didn't? I suspect this will largely feature the late-1960s' / early-70s period of the recent expansion clubs being in one (playoff bound) division. For example, the 1969-70 Montreal Canadiens famously missed the playoffs with a .605 record (and +43 goal differential), while that season's Oakland Seals made it in with a .382 record (and a -74 goal differential... wait, so that's even worse than the '88 Maple Leafs...).

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[carjackmalone]

Colorado Rockies

 

[bobholly39]

For all the people calling this a negative (and a lot are), I actually find this rather impressive.

It's not about how badly you lose the games you lose, it's about winning enough to make it. And they did, despite a lot of bad losses. Shows character

 

[The Panther]

For all the people calling this a negative (and a lot are), I actually find this rather impressive.

It's not about how badly you lose the games you lose, it's about winning enough to make it. And they did, despite a lot of bad losses. Shows character

For the record, I agree with you. Anyway, there's got to be some sort of tie-breaker, so it is what it is.

But this is the History forum, so another question I have (I'm too lazy to check right now) is when was the last time a playoff team had a -37 differential?

 

[Midnight Judges]

The Capitals goal differential is bad due to blowouts, but they were able to hold on to leads quite well.

 

[Ishdul]

The 1986 Leafs had 57 points and were -75. They made it to the playoffs and even won a series while the Sabres (80 points, +5) and Penguins (76 points, +8) stayed home.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Yeah, I have no idea how they made it. When they were good, I used to watch their games quite a bit. Now they're simply not that enjoyable to view.

I did catch some games. Sometimes they would play like crap and get blown out (like in every game vs Toronto), but there were games where they were impressive with their defensive play. I saw the two games where they beat Boston 2-0 and the Bruins did not look like themselves in either one. The Capitals totally shut them down offensively and basically controlled play, which I find impressive given how bad my team fares against BOS. Maybe it's a rock-paper-scissors thing.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

A quick summary of Washington's record based on the game's goal differential:

• 1 goal: 20-13 (11 of the 13 losses were in OT/SO)
• 2 goals: 8-5
• 3 goals: 9-11
• 4 goals: 2-8
• 5 goals: 0-4
• 6 goals: 1-1

Overall, the Caps had a 77.3% win percentage in one-goal games. They were essentially breakeven in two- and three-goal games (17-16). And they had a horrific record in blowouts (3-13 - an abysmal 18.8% win percentage). That explains how they were able to get into the playoffs despite a large, negative goal differential.

Which team is the "real" Capitals? The one that was able to squeak out a lot of wins (or at least OTL points) in close games? Or the one that got repeatedly defeated by huge margins?

 

[GlitchMarner]

The 1986 Leafs had 57 points and were -75. They made it to the playoffs and even won a series while the Sabres (80 points, +5) and Penguins (76 points, +8) stayed home.

Go Leafs go!

I imagine a lot of terrible teams made the playoffs during the 80s when there were only 21 teams and 16 made the playoffs.

Obviously it's less common for a team with a goal differential worse than, say, -15, to qualify when only half the teams in the League make the playoffs.

 

[Hockey Stathead]

Worst Goal Differential for Playoff Teams

All-Time:

Since 2004-2005 Lockout:

 

[Johnny Engine]

Worst Goal Differential for Playoff Teams

All-Time:
View attachment 853702

Since 2004-2005 Lockout:

View attachment 853703

That Florida team that's just behind Washington on the post-lockout team won their division, so had a home seed in the playoffs.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Which team is the "real" Capitals? The one that was able to squeak out a lot of wins (or at least OTL points) in close games? Or the one that got repeatedly defeated by huge margins?

Both?

It's not a good team.

But the thing about hockey is it's a team sport and talent can be neutralized by puck hounding, traps, and otherwise ultra-conservative systems.

The Caps system this year is not unlike the Hunter hockey of 2012. It's super boring, yet effective and probably the best bet for a bad team. The Capitals also have some players that can finish (Ovie, Oshie, Carlson, Strome). Get that lead and clamp down - even if it's a first period goal.

 

[Michael Farkas]

^ Yeah, this Caps team kind of feels like some of those Ducks teams in the 2000's...

Kariya, Selanne...and then a bunch of guys that just take turns dumping bags of sand on the rink until Kariya and/or Selanne can get back on the ice...occasionally a Sandis Ozolinsh type does something interesting. Then, more sand...

Depending on the night, McMichael or Miro plays the role of Stanislav Chistov...

 

[MadLuke]

Would be something for the worst team to make the playoff to be in a 32 teams league and not in the 16 in 21 type of eras or when expansion team were in their own division with playoff spots given to them.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

To the defense of the Capitals, the team they're playing the Presidents' Trophy winning Rangers lost all if their games by 3 or 4 goals in probably more than the first half of the season.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Would be something for the worst team to make the playoff to be in a 32 teams league and not in the 16 in 21 type of eras or when expansion team were in their own division with playoff spots given to them.

Yeah it does seem rather unlikely that a team in the 50th percentile of today's NHL would be worse than all those teams in the 25th-30th percentiles that made the playoffs back when it was 16 of 21 or 4 out of 6 etc.

 

[The Panther]

Worst Goal Differential for Playoff Teams

All-Time:
View attachment 853702

Since 2004-2005 Lockout:

View attachment 853703

Awesome work, although is this list missing this season's NY Islanders?

If anyone has it, I'd love to see the historically best goal differentials to miss the playoffs, too...

 

[Hockey Stathead]

Awesome work, although is this list missing this season's NY Islanders?

If anyone has it, I'd love to see the historically best goal differentials to miss the playoffs, too...

Yes, good call on Islanders. Looks like they finished at -13 after winning by 1 tonight.

Best goal differentials for non-playoff teams:

 

[WarriorofTime]

Those first three for best GD to miss the playoffs are obviously worth taking with a grain of salt because it consisted of beating up on the expansion division.

 

[Yozhik v tumane]

Those first three for best GD to miss the playoffs are obviously worth taking with a grain of salt because it consisted of beating up on the expansion division.

Yeah, it’s certainly worth noting that only the Maple Leafs had a worse goal differential than the Habs out of the O6 teams, and the Blues were the only expansion team with a positive differential. The Kings in particular were abysmal, but not even the Stanley Cup finalist Blues who won their division by 22 points had a winning record against any O6 team. Best they fared was in fact against the Habs, where they went an even .500 and had a +1 GD.

 

[Ace36758]

As many will have noticed, this year's (2023-24) Washington Capitals clinched a playoff spot, with an unusual -37 goal differential, and the Islanders with a -18. I don't suggest that these two clubs were particularly "bad" in any way, but it is a bit unusual in the current era (I think) to see a -37 team qualifying.

So, maybe I have two specific questions relating to this, and then of course the thread can go in any direction besides:

1) What is the worst club to ever qualify for the playoffs in terms of goal differential and/or overall record? (I recall, when I was 11 or 12, the 1987-88 Maple Leafs making it in with a -72 goal differential and a horrible .372 record.)

2) What is the biggest gap between a "bad" club that made it in and a "good" club that didn't? I suspect this will largely feature the late-1960s' / early-70s period of the recent expansion clubs being in one (playoff bound) division. For example, the 1969-70 Montreal Canadiens famously missed the playoffs with a .605 record (and +43 goal differential), while that season's Oakland Seals made it in with a .382 record (and a -74 goal differential... wait, so that's even worse than the '88 Maple Leafs...).

I love that you made this thread. I came to the HOH today intent on making the exact same one. Nice work, as usual.

 

[MadLuke]

Those first three for best GD to miss the playoffs are obviously worth taking with a grain of salt because it consisted of beating up on the expansion division.

But that would make them a excellent candidate considering the competition for their playoff spot, the 5 best team in the nhl when there is a giant disparity toward the Top 6 missing the playoff... And they were "5th" they lost a tie breaker with the 4th place and 2 wins away from the second place Bruins

The 70 Habs had Cournoyer, Lemaire, Richard, old Beliveau, Laperriere, Savard, JC Tremblay, young Mahovlich, Vachon in net, Ruel behind the bench.

against non expansion teams they were still a +9 teams, 17 wins-12 losts-9 tie.

They had just won the stanley cup the year before, the only big difference between the 2 roster being Beliveau now one year older.

 

[WarriorofTime]

But that would make them a excellent candidate considering the competition for their playoff spot, the 5 best team in the nhl when there is a giant disparity toward the Top 6 missing the playoff... And they were "5th" they lost a tie breaker with the 4th place and 2 wins away from the second place Bruins

The 70 Habs had Cournoyer, Lemaire, Richard, old Beliveau, Laperriere, Savard, JC Tremblay, young Mahovlich, Vachon in net, Ruel behind the bench.

against non expansion teams they were still a +9 teams, 17 wins-12 losts-9 tie.

They had just won the stanley cup the year before, the only big difference between the 2 roster being Beliveau now one year older.

Yes and they also won in '71 and '73. Just meant the goal differentials in general, half the League were more or less "non-NHL teams" filled with minor leaguers until enough time had passed for the league to flip over enough that newly added players were dispersed more evenly across all teams (old/new). The Blackhawks dominated the formerly expansion (officially called west) division even a few years into it when they moved after '70, they even changed the playoff format so it'd be E1vW2 and W1vE2 in the Final Four round. It took seven years for a non-Original Six team to win a Stanley Cup.

 

[Crosby2010]

I don't get it with the Caps. Nor do I get it with the Islanders. While we're at it, if Philly squeaked into the playoffs they would have had a bad goal differential as well. At least the Pens looked like a playoff team. Poor Sid, he really needed some help on that team, and still does to be honest.

 

[Michael Farkas]

The Penguins looked like a playoff team for about one month. They aren't a good team either. It was Crosby almost singlehandedly keeping them afloat and Jarry in the first half of the season. Nedeljkovic was really good late, but Crosby had turned back the clock to such a degree that Ned paled in comparison.

Sid's season will likely be more or less lost to the sands of time, but given the circumstances, it was one of his best. Probably his best defensively too, in the regular season.