Player Discussion: 2023 Vezina Finalist Connor Hellebuyck

[FonRiesen]

Goaler analyst Greg Balloch making the big claim:




It happens. I think we know how:

That's hilarious! (And kinda true)

 

[Adam da bomb]

Is helly up there with the greats of this generation but will never get the credit, Hank and others got because Winnipeg and Jets can’t make it to finals?

 

[tbcwpg]

Is helly up there with the greats of this generation but will never get the credit, Hank and others got because Winnipeg and Jets can’t make it to finals?

Lots of time to make the finals still. He's one of the generations best, for sure.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Without question has the best recovery in the entire league.

 

[DRW204]

so far at all strengths helle is

6th in TOI/5th in gp. 4th in shots-against and 1st in most xGA. has played 27/33 games, on track to be over 65+ if this keeps up

i was hoping for the jets to be a bit further up the standings or better defensively to lessen Helle's workload, but if anything, likely will need him to be in that 65 starts range to give us the best chance for the POs

 

[Jets4Life]

I could not help notice that a few posters are claiming Hellebuyck is having a "bad" year this season. Statistics indicate that his saving percentage is 0.913, which is above the league average of 0.908%. It may be that we have come to expect Vezina trophy calibre goaltending every season.

The fact that the matter is that Hellebuyck's stats have been above average every year he has played in the NHL, with the only exception being 2016-17.

 

[MardyBum]

Not having a vezina calibre season but is still a huge net positive for us.

Just find ways to play the puck less

 

[tbcwpg]

I could not help notice that a few posters are claiming Hellebuyck is having a "bad" year this season. Statistics indicate that his saving percentage is 0.913, which is above the league average of 0.908%. It may be that we have come to expect Vezina trophy calibre goaltending every season.

The fact that the matter is that Hellebuyck's stats have been above average every year he has played in the NHL, with the only exception being 2016-17.

It's a bad year for him, it's not a bad year for an NHL goaltender.

 

[FonRiesen]

It's a bad year for him, it's not a bad year for an NHL goaltender.

I wonder if the attempt to crack down on cross-checking is making a difference? League sv% is down.

Can't think of any other significant changes to the system. It was amusing - during the NSH game, their commentators were actually bemoaning the fact that by calling cross-checking, the league was taking away Boroweicki's "greatest weapon"...


They're technically right, but probably not in the way they meant...

 

[Jetland162702]

Wrong thread, sorry.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Seeing lots of criticism of Hellybuyck. "Soft goals" "being outplayed yet again by the opposing goalie."

I just took a look at MoneyPuck and Goals Saved Above Expected. Connor is 5th in the league at 17.5. Last year, he was first at 19.3 and the year before he was first with 24.2.

Despite those puck-handling gaffs, Connor is not the problem. He is our MVP this year...again. Even, moreso than the other Connor.

 

[Saidin]

Lottery team without this guy... wish people would know that...

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Hellebuycks rankings all strength minimum 1000 mins played.

SV%-19th
HDSV%-26th
GSAA-15th
HDGSAA-25th
GAA-25th
HDGAA-32nd

Most goals and HDGoals allowed in the entire league.

granted the total goals against is directly related to fact that he’s played the most games out of any goaltender but on the flip side of that is he’d probably rank worse in the (HD)GSAA if he played less games.

there also happens to be only 7 goalies that face a further average shot distance.

I’m not saying Hellebuyck is the problem at all but to try and say he is having an elite season, the team MVP and a lottery team without him I just can’t agree with.

I certainly expect a lot more from one of the highest paid goalies in the league.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Helly is earning above his $6 million salary this season. He is 12th among goalies who have started around half or more of their team's games.

Helly has been great since the all star game. 8 games with a .930 save percentage.

 

[jetsforever]

Helly is earning above his $6 million salary this season. He is 12th among goalies who have started around half or more of their team's games.

Helly has been great since the all star game. 8 games with a .930 save percentage.

Never mind since the All-Star game - he's been great for like 6 years

 

[tbcwpg]

For Hellebuyck's average year:

 

[kanadalainen]

For Hellebuyck's average year:

Not too shabby!

My eye test says he has really taken it up a notch these past dozen games.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

For Hellebuyck's average year:

Depends what model you want to use….naturalstattrick ranks Hellebuyck 19th in GSAA.

Hellebuyck is a great goalie but he certainly is far from being a top 10 goalie this year.

 

[FonRiesen]

For Hellebuyck's average year:

I think a fairer 'sort' would be the per 60 column... Helle's played a lot more games than most, and this is a cumulative stat. But at least he's still saving above expected and not below...

 

[Ducky10]

Depends what model you want to use….naturalstattrick ranks Hellebuyck 19th in GSAA.

Hellebuyck is a great goalie but he certainly is far from being a top 10 goalie this year.

Unless you use the Moneypuck model, in which case he is.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Unless you use the Moneypuck model, in which case he is.

Well I’d say I have my doubts with the moneypuck model then.

Here is where Hellebuyck ranks in certain stats (stats from naturalstattrick, all strengths, min 1500 TOI)

SV%-18th
GAA-24th
GSAA-19th
HDSV%-25th
HDGAA-32nd
HDGSAA-27th

 

[None]

Well I’d say I have my doubts with the moneypuck model then.

Here is where Hellebuyck ranks in certain stats (stats from naturalstattrick, all strengths, min 1500 TOI)

SV%-18th
GAA-24th
GSAA-19th
HDSV%-25th
HDGAA-32nd
HDGSAA-27th

You should probably go with 5 on 5 because the Jets historically terrible PK for half the season is going to skew those all strengths numbers. Once it's adjusted it'll likely show him as top 10 in some categories and middle of the pack in others. Some of those stats also aren't great indicators for isolating goaltending impact.

Natural Stat Trick doesn't provide GSAx but you can easily do it yourself with their numbers, but it's not like Natural Stat Trick's numbers are very different than MoneyPuck's (10th in GSAx) or Evolving Hockey's (9th in GSAx w/ Score+Venue adj.).

11th with numbers from Natural Stat Trick

 

[MardyBum]

GSAx>>>GSAA.

GSAA is not a good representation of individual performance imo.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

You should probably go with 5 on 5 because the Jets historically terrible PK for half the season is going to skew those all strengths numbers. Once it's adjusted it'll likely show him as top 10 in some categories and middle of the pack in others. Some of those stats also aren't great indicators for isolating goaltending impact.

Natural Stat Trick doesn't provide GSAx but you can easily do it yourself with their numbers, but it's not like Natural Stat Trick's numbers are very different than MoneyPuck's (10th in GSAx) or Evolving Hockey's (9th in GSAx w/ Score+Venue adj.).

11th with numbers from Natural Stat Trick

A goalies job is to save the puck at all strengths not just 5v5 but if you want we can look at his 5v5 stats.

SV%-17th
GAA-19th
GSAA-16th
HDSV%-21st
HDGAA-25th
HDGSAA-20th

Like I said Hellebuyck is a great goalie but if anyone actually thinks he is close to a top 10 goalie this year based on one stat is just fooling themselves.

 

[None]

A goalies job is to save the puck at all strengths not just 5v5 but if you want we can look at his 5v5 stats.

Sure, but then you're judging the team's impact on defending the goal more than the individual goaltender.