NFL: 2023 NFL off-season news & notes discussion thread

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SirClintonPortis

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Cook gets cut and still unsigned after around 4 weeks. Mixon takes a restructured contract.

Barkley and Jacobs have until Monday to agree on a long term deal otherwise they are limited to just a 1 year contract term unless the tag is rescinded by their clubs.

To get paid at RB you have to play well in your first 3 years and also remain healthy. Just rough for RBs these days.
RBs have no leverage given what happened to Shaun Alexander. Cook is in a worse position than Barkley because Cook did seem to lose a little something last season.

Zeke fattening himself and slowing down after getting paid did his peers no favors either(although seeing the Cowboys suffer due to that made me happy); Zeke is also now 27.

Basically, now there's verified history running backs have to overcome if they want money from the owners.

Pretty much, the "actuarial data" for RB lifespan puts the start of end at 27-29 years of age; Clinton Portis' last 1000+ year season was also when he was 27.

DeMarco Murray peaked at 26. He couldn't even sustain his career after age 29.

The only to buck that trend would be someone with legendary talent and legendary work ethic, like Adrian Peterson.
 

Big Poppa Puck

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Adrian Peterson led the league in rushing at 30*, but he was a freak of nature, (other than that the last RB >27 to lead the league in rushing was Tomlinson at 28 in '07).

He rushed for a 1000 again with Washington at 33 and Frank Gore kept plodding along into his mid-late 30s but even then both were journeyman and weren't getting paid much at that point


I think along with the devaluation of the position teams are also go with "year too soon rather than year too late mindset" why pay someone and sign them to a 5 year deal for maybe another good season or two tops just to have to cut them and take on the dead cap hit before the contract is up? Especially when you can find someone on the street or in Rounds 2-7 of the draft.



*Peterson was still highly paid at this point but was injured the next year, then gone from MIN the following that season.
 
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SirClintonPortis

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Adrian Peterson led the league in rushing at 30*, but he was a freak of nature, (other than that the last RB >27 to lead the league in rushing was Tomlinson at 28 in '07).

He rushed for a 1000 again with Washington at 33 and Frank Gore kept plodding along into his mid-late 30s but even then both were journeyman and weren't getting paid much at that point


I think along with the devaluation of the position teams are also go with "year too soon rather than year too late mindset" why pay someone and sign them to a 5 year deal for maybe another good season or two tops just to have to cut them and take on the dead cap hit before the contract is up? Especially when you can find someone on the street or in Rounds 2-7 of the draft.



*Peterson was still highly paid at this point but was injured the next year, then gone from MIN the following that season.
Tomlinson didn't really fare well after 29 and his last season with the Jets may have been out of respect to his past or veteran presence rather than any objective evaluation of his ability on the field. So Tomlinson, a HOFer, was basically done at 31 years old.

AP was able to be effective after 29, but he was a combination of work, talent, and physical gifts. But even though I enjoyed his performance in Washington, he didn't have the top end speed that he had just a few years prior.
 

StreetHawk

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I think Teams are also considering the wear and tear of the RB while in college. Barkley was a beast at Penn State and the bell cow back there.
874 touches in 3 sasons with Penn State. 290 touches per season.
Around 1160 touches in 4 seasons healthy seasons (I'll include the 2 that he played 13 games and exclude the 2 game season). Around the same 290 touches in the NFL per season.

At least for Jacobs, he didn't play much as a FR and SO, so that saved him some wear and tear.
300 touches total while in college. Basically, equal to 1 season of Barkley.
NFL, 1230 touches in 4 seasons. 70 more than Barkley.

But, Barkley is the superior athlete of the two. But, wear and tear is still wear and tear.

I don't imagine that either NYG or LV are looking to pay them much more than the value of the tags for this season and next in guaranteed money. Compromise for both is to get the $23 mill or whatever that is for guaranteed money equal to the tag this season of $10 mill plus and $12 mill plus for 2024. If the RB want more, make it performance bonus. Rushing milestones and combined rushing/receiving milestones so that if they hit, they get the $14-$15 mill that they are looking for.
 

StreetHawk

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Pollard signed his tag, but he's still permitted to negotiate a long term deal. NFL contracts, can always be adjusted.

Really only leaves Barkley and Jacbos as the last 2 guys who have not signed anything yet.

Honestly, I feel the only compromise is the agree to guarantee the value of the tags for 2023 and 2024 which is $22.2 million. Then give them incentives that they can reach to secure the extra $3-$4 million annually if they hit it.

Be it 1,200 yards rushing, then 1,400 yards rushing and/or 1,800 - 2,000 yards combined rushing/receiving, etc.

Seeing it with Cook who has been on the market for a month and just this weekend, Mixon restructured his contract with Cincy. Being a free agent, won't really get them paid either. Not after Bell's deal blew up and Murray didn't live up to expectations in Philly. Teams are not signing other team's RB for big money contracts.
 

GKJ

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I wondering how this is going to affect kids going forward. Kids are going to start not wanting to play the position.
 

StreetHawk

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I wondering how this is going to affect kids going forward. Kids are going to start not wanting to play the position.
They shouldn’t want to play RB. Evan Engram signed for more guaranteed money that the RB tags for 2 seasons. PA really blew their shot to get rid of the tags when they agreed to the 17th game. Should have been one of the things they got rid of in order to accept that extra game.

But also depends on your build and traits. RBs obviously build up their quads so can someone who is a HS RB switch to slot WR or secondary? Those are your only real options. Unless you are big like Henry and Peterson who could maybe them play LB. Maybe not the height for TE.
 

GKJ

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They shouldn’t want to play RB. Evan Engram signed for more guaranteed money that the RB tags for 2 seasons. PA really blew their shot to get rid of the tags when they agreed to the 17th game. Should have been one of the things they got rid of in order to accept that extra game.

But also depends on your build and traits. RBs obviously build up their quads so can someone who is a HS RB switch to slot WR or secondary? Those are your only real options. Unless you are big like Henry and Peterson who could maybe them play LB. Maybe not the height for TE.
The PA always comes up short. There’s a reason why they weren’t sure the last deal would get ratified.

It begs the question as to whether or not the best athletes will play the position, or if some will do it because it gets them up the depth chart faster.
 

StreetHawk

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The PA always comes up short. There’s a reason why they weren’t sure the last deal would get ratified.

It begs the question as to whether or not the best athletes will play the position, or if some will do it because it gets them up the depth chart faster.
As younger kids the best athlete plays RB as you can always get them the ball. Up to the kid when they hits their teens to decide to change positions and develop the other skills necessary for those other positions at receiver or secondary.

McCaffery could have been an excellent slot WR. Barkley maybe as well. I think Jacobs would have been moved to Safety since he ran 4.6.
 

StreetHawk

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Deadline for the franchise tag is 4pm EST today. So both Barkley and Jacobs have just over 4 hours to finalize a long term deal. Only other way they can get a deal for term after 4pm EST is to have the tag rescinded and they become free agents.
 

Unholy Diver

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Deadline for the franchise tag is 4pm EST today. So both Barkley and Jacobs have just over 4 hours to finalize a long term deal. Only other way they can get a deal for term after 4pm EST is to have the tag rescinded and they become free agents.

Kinda surprised neither teams sniffed around Zeke and Cook to try to put some pressure on Barkley/Jacobs, whether real or just for show

Tony Pollard is also in the same boat as Barkley and Jacobs

Edit - Pollard signed his tag so the deadline doesn't apply to him
 
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StreetHawk

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Kinda surprised neither teams sniffed around Zeke and Cook to try to put some pressure on Barkley/Jacobs, whether real or just for show
Cook more than Zeke. But, sounds like both Barkley and Jacobs have their heels dug in. Their agent has to ensure that both players understand how the CBA works and what their true leverage is at this point.

Timing and health are everything for a RB. CMC played in all 16 games during his first 3 years. He was a duo threat so had almost 1,100 combined in year 1, 1,900 in year 2, and almost 2,400 yards in year 3. That enabled him to get the 3 year $64 mill deal. Had he played year 4 where he got hurt and played just 3 games, no way Carolina does term with him.

Barkley tore his ACL in year 3, thus ended up playing out his 5th year option and not getting that contract like CMC after year 3. Timing of that injury. Maybe if he had another strong season in year 3, he signs for term with the Giants like CMC did with Carolina.

Jacobs, had 1,300 then 1,300 then 1,200 yards combined during his first 3 seasons, but his rushing totals dropped to under 900 in year 3. Thus, his 5th year option wasn't picked up by the new regime. Which in reality, he should be happy about now as that would have been worth just $8 mill this season, but would have given him a longer runway to get a new deal rather than this tag deadline today. Given the regime change and how the Pats operate, which is where the regime comes from, I doubt they want to pay RB big money.

Again, I think the resolution is probably to guarantee 2 years of the tag values for 23 and 24 seasons, then give them incentives to get an extra $3-4 mill. Via pure rushing totals and/or a combined rush/pass total. Tag values are like $10.1 and $12.2 mill so around $22.3 mill.

It's not fair that WR2 and even WR3 can make more than top tiered RBs. But, it's always the injury concerns for RB. Plus the number of RBs who signed for big money that fade fast like Gurley, Murray, Bell, CMC with injuries, Zeke, etc. within the last 5 years.
 

StreetHawk

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In the end I don’t know that even if they were free agents who would have paid them CMC money when he signed his extension. Teams just don’t pay 8 figures annually for another teams RB.
 

The Note

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In theory I completely understand why teams are acting the way they are in the RB market, and I agree with the philosophy. But, in practice, I can't help but feel relatively bad for these guys who come in, do everything they can and produce at a high level and not be able to get the payday when the time comes. Especially at a position as physically taxing as RB.
 

StreetHawk

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In theory I completely understand why teams are acting the way they are in the RB market, and I agree with the philosophy. But, in practice, I can't help but feel relatively bad for these guys who come in, do everything they can and produce at a high level and not be able to get the payday when the time comes. Especially at a position as physically taxing as RB.
Some of these RB are getting paid less than WR3 on a team. LV, Adams is the big money guy. Renfrow got 2 years with $21 guaranteed. Meyers signed for 8 figures. And Jacobs will be getting less than all 3. So, not fair.

In the end, I think it needed to be a compromise. Guarantee some money and give the RB incentives to get what they think they should get.

Tags for 23 and 24 would have been $22 mill. Give them that in a combo of Signing bonus and base salary guaranteed. Then allow them to get $3-4 mill more per if they hit bonuses for rushing/combo of pass/run totals. win/win for both sides.

RB you have to be healthy, especially in year 3 of your rookie deal so that you can sign that extension, like CMC was. Barkley tore his ACL and thus wasn't offered term until he came back for year 4 and played. Jacobs, his rushing numbers dropped in year 3. And the new regime didn't pick up the 5th year option.

Teams know that each season that passes, it's becomes less likely for the RB to be healthy with the wear and tear of the position. So, if they are going to pay you, it has to be early rather than later.
 
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The Note

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Tyreek "I'm a cheetah" Hill says he's getting 2k yards and a SB ring this season.
He was only 290 yards away last year and that was with Tua missing a handful of games. I'm less convinced of the second part, but I do think Miami is going to be very good this year. With the giant caveat of Tua's health.
 

Say Hey Kid

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StreetHawk

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I would agree with that sentiment. No need to see the actual discussion of a player being released. Can show the player going into the room and they should be given a few minutes to process the release before they have to appear on camera. These are typically the rookies or guys on rookie deals who were day 3 picks that are in jeopardy of getting cut.
 
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