Pre-Game Talk: 2023 HFStars Boy Rank PRE Discussion

[piqued]

Thought we could have a thread this time to talk about the rankings before voting actually starts. @Satan feel free to make the polls if you still want to handle that.

One point of contention is traditionally 50 NHL contests has been the graduation cutoff. In Harley's case he clears that bar if you factor in playoff games. I think you would have a very competitive race for #1 if he was still considered a prospect. But in my mind playoff games should count for even more than regular season games so I'd consider him graduated after looking like a beast in the highest of high pressure situations. Thoughts?

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[Zapp]

Thought we could have a thread this time to talk about the rankings before voting actually starts. @Satan feel free to make the polls if you still want to handle that.

One point of contention is traditionally 50 NHL contests has been the graduation cutoff. In Harley's case he clears that bar if you factor in playoff games. I think you would have a very competitive race for #1 if he was still considered a prospect. But in my mind playoff games should count for even more than regular season games so I'd consider him graduated after looking like a beast in the highest of high pressure situations. Thoughts?

Harley is a lock for next year anyway too so best to just consider him graduated.


Also, I’ll be picking Chase Wheatcroft earlier than everyone else here.

 

[LT]

Harley's played 60 games total, the usual threshold is 50ish. Personally I like to just use Calder eligibility.

 

[Hull Fan]

Games are games and although playoffs obviously matter more, he's cleared the threshold, imo. No need to have Harley on here.

I'm really curious to see how people order Stankoven, Bourque, and Bichsel. What's the current opinion on Stranges who didn't play much but was decently productive in the minutes he got? The coaches in Cedar Park gave him a few playoff games so he can't be thought of too poorly.

And what if anything we know about the new UDFAs like Wheatcroft, etc. It's not a barren wasteland but there are some projects after you get past the top 3.

 

[Henderson33]

Martino deserves some hype as well.

Hopefully we can sign him at the end of this season so he's not tempted to go the free agent route.

 

[Sports2]

1. Scheel

 

[Ratbath]

1-2-3 seems obvious. It’ll be fun to see where people land after that

 

[starsfan86]

1. Scheel

He gone man

 

[Morry83]

Does Troy Vance still count as a prospect?

 

[Ub the Bub]

Does Troy Vance still count as a prospect?

Let's be honest, was he ever really a prospect?

 

[hairylikebear]

Harley should be considered graduated, but theoretically speaking - would his playoff performance give him a shot at the #1 spot?

 

[Zapp]

Harley should be considered graduated, but theoretically speaking - would his playoff performance give him a shot at the #1 spot?

I don’t think so but that’s why we should be definitive on what we’re voting for. If it’s based off their ceiling, Stankoven is the best choice. If we’re talking realistically having the biggest impact on the team, for me it’s Bichsel.

 

[piqued]

I'm really curious to see how people order Stankoven, Bourque, and Bichsel. What's the current opinion on Stranges who didn't play much but was decently productive in the minutes he got? The coaches in Cedar Park gave him a few playoff games so he can't be thought of too poorly.

Both Peverley and Neil Graham have recently brought up Stranges' name unprompted which tells me he's still on a good trajectory and top of mind.

Harley should be considered graduated, but theoretically speaking - would his playoff performance give him a shot at the #1 spot?

This is partly why I brought it up. For me, yes. A top 4 PMD is worth his weight in gold and sort of instantly has to vault over any non-elite forward prospect.

1-2-3 seems obvious. It’ll be fun to see where people land after that

That's probably the way it's going to go, but there was a minority last year who had Bourque ahead of Stankoven. If that was your theoretical position then I don't know why it still wouldn't be now. Stankoven, as good as he is, stagnated in many ways in pursuit of the Memorial Cup. It's great that he runs circles around junior players, but Bourque was challenged with a massive step up and responded by filling out his all-around game in an impressive way.

That said, I still have Stankoven ahead of Mav overall, but if you were originally a Mav stan there's no compelling reason to back off that position.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Hypothetically, I think I would've voted Harley #1 just because of how rare and valuable 6'3" smooth skating top 4 PMDs are. That's probably a hot take, and I'm not confident in it thanks to my love of Stankoven. I think he's clearly above Mavrik and Bischel for me however.

I'm totally cool with him being excluded from this list though.

 

[Hull Fan]

Harley over Stankoven is a tough call but yeah this team needs Harley more than Stank.

That said I am curious how people view upside versus close to ready cause if you had Martino at 4 I wouldn't complain but Stranges is in my top 5. He has game changing dynamic offense that is stylistically different from any other prospect we have. If he learns to just be adequate defensively, ie he tries and puts some effort into it, his offense is of such quality he's on this roster in 2 years. If he's listening to what the coaches are trying to teach him I expect to see him in 50ish games played and putting up .7+ points/game in the AHL this season.

 

[hairylikebear]

Thanks for the responses - I'm not as concerned about Stankoven's stagnation because he has a valid excuse - he was ineligible for a challenge he rightly earned (AHL). Harley hasn't followed a direct path to his current level of play either. He had an advantage as a late birthday which allowed him to play his D+2 in the AHL, but until he made his strides this past season I wasn't super impressed with his progress. It was probably a case of waiting for the muscle to start piling on.

It's not Bichsel's fault but I'm not projecting him above Stankoven/Bourque/Harley yet until I get another year of info about him, and that's only because I hadn't even heard about him until he was drafted.

Where Stankoven got a lot better this year compared to last is the way he elevates his linemates. There seemed to be a Stankoven effect going on with both Seminoff and Zellweger. By my eye, he has made solid progress with his offensive play without the puck - both his level of effort and his mobility.

The question for me is Bourque vs Harley. I'd argue Bourque's development has been even cleaner so far than Harley's.

This time last year I had them Stankoven, Johnston, Bourque, Harley, Bichsel. Clearly Wyatt has proven he is the best of the group. I don't think I've changed my order otherwise but Stankoven is closer to Bourque and Harley than he was.

 

[hairylikebear]

Harley over Stankoven is a tough call but yeah this team needs Harley more than Stank.

That said I am curious how people view upside versus close to ready cause if you had Martino at 4 I wouldn't complain but Stranges is in my top 5. He has game changing dynamic offense that is stylistically different from any other prospect we have. If he learns to just be adequate defensively, ie he tries and puts some effort into it, his offense is of such quality he's on this roster in 2 years. If he's listening to what the coaches are trying to teach him I expect to see him in 50ish games played and putting up .7+ points/game in the AHL this season.

I value upside mostly, corrected by how difficult I think their path is from their current form. That also allows me think less about the difference in positional value, because the more valuable the position (e.g. top 4 PMD vs scoring winger), the harder the path to get there. I was extremely low on Oettinger for a while for this reason (and also JC trauma).

I have Martino over Stranges. I think Stranges has a very difficult road to NHL ice time, but he's definitely fun to watch. He's no Mike Ribeiro, IMO.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

I think most here will value upside but that can be open to interpretation.

I personally believe upside is a term often misappropriated for deeply flawed offense-only wingers. To me I'd say a guy like George Fegaras who has all the tools but hasn't developed them yet, would have a higher upside then Antonio Stranges. I think Stranges just completely lacks the man marking, forechecking, work-rate or really any concept of a team's defensive structure. I think he just tends to "10 and 2" his way around the perimeter while the game is going on near the net and in the corners.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Martino deserves some hype as well.

Hopefully we can sign him at the end of this season so he's not tempted to go the free agent route.

He's come to every development camp so I imagine he is happy with the organization and would be willing to sign here. I thought he might sign this off-season TBH, but one more college year it is.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Stranges is highly overrated on these boards, I get that he is exciting/unique player but the thought of him ever playing in an NHL game doesn't cross my mind. There isn't a single NHL coach that would ever trust him to play over the million prospects that are available to choose from. Just in the organization alone, Blumel, Bourque, Wheatcroft, Back, Seminoff, Stankoven, Caamano, Damiani, Reedy, Karlstrom .. we would need to see 10 injured forwards maybe 11 (Arcuri) to see Stranges in the NHL. What's the likelyhood of that? 0%

 

[serp]

I'll say this for Stranges. He's already progressed much more than i thought he would . He wasn't just ECHL fodder last year but actually became a good contributor to the AHL team. Still a longshot to make the NHL but not as long as he was a 1-2 years ago.

He's already shown himself to be better than most undrafted / overager / college free agents and late round picks the Stars hand out contracts to.

Then again i didn't think he'd earn himself an ELC to begin with either and then he really showed something in juniors. I won't count him out to actually somehow work himself into an NHL career .

 

[serp]

Stranges isn't even the only one of the 2020 late round picks that has already shown more than i ever thought he would. Remi Poirier is another one. Somehow out of nowhere he was good enough in his first pro season that the Stars are comfortable enough to roll with Murray/Poirier as AHL tandem next season.

 

[Hull Fan]

I'll say this for Stranges. He's already progressed much more than i thought he would . He wasn't just ECHL fodder last year but actually became a good contributor to the AHL team. Still a longshot to make the NHL but not as long as he was a 1-2 years ago.

He's already shown himself to be better than most undrafted / overager / college free agents and late round picks the Stars hand out contracts to.

Then again i didn't think he'd earn himself an ELC to begin with either and then he really showed something in juniors. I won't count him out to actually somehow work himself into an NHL career .

This. Go look at Stranges' game log last year. Not much playing time early, sent to ECHL, a point/game there, not a surprise as he was the most talented player on that team but comes back to Texas in a playoff push and starts getting games. Not a ton, 1 in every 3 but down the stretch more often. He's also producing points and gets those 4 playoff games.

He doesn't get those games if he doesn't listen to the coaching staff and implement what they're telling him to. Stranges doesn't play 4 playoff games if he hadn't improved and shown something down there. Texas had plenty of options but chose to play him. That says he's already improved from the beginning of the season.

I don't expect him to play every game. We should still expect the occasional tough love scratch but he's come a super long way in the last 3 seasons. There's no reason to think that won't continue. What he has, they can't teach. Everything else is about hockey sense and want to. His hockey sense isn't so bad that he can't figure out the off the puck aspects of the game.

We'll see, but if you asked me to put money on whether Damiani or Stranges is most likely to play for the Dallas Stars in the future, my money is on Stranges.

 

[Hull Fan]

He's come to every development camp so I imagine he is happy with the organization and would be willing to sign here. I thought he might sign this off-season TBH, but one more college year it is.

Dadanov, Duchene, and Pavelski are most likely gone after this season. Then Benn and Faska. If I'm Martino there's no reason to think he can't crack that lineup in a year or two at most.

 

[Zapp]

I wouldn’t get overly excited for Ayrton Martino. This is as mid of a prospect as mid gets. It’s actually funny.

OJHL is a mid league that produces mid talent like Marchment, Jake Evans, etc.

Clarkson is a mid ECAC school who plays .500 hockey.

We drafted him with a mid 3rd round pick.

He’s average height (aka mid)


I can keep going if you want.