MartyOwns
thank you shero
- Apr 1, 2007
- 24,220
- 18,042
Prospect Info: 2023 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #2
- Thread starter Nubmer6
- Start date
BurntToast
Registered User
Devils731
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2008
- 12,336
- 16,448
I like it.
I will quibble about Hameenaho. He’s definitely B tier, imo.
You couldn’t trade 2 Ethan Edwards or 2 Cheslocks for 1 Hameenaho.
Hameenaho is getting the Muhkmadullin treatment. Some strong initial takes has tainted him in some general fan takes, imo. Even the poll and your list put a 6th round pick ahead of Hameenaho which is a bit crazy, imo.
BurntToast
Registered User
I think Vilen should be tier A and Hameenaho should be tier B. Both had good success in Mens European leagues.
Hatakka also should be higher. Did well before injuries was featured by the GM/NJ Devils website.
DevilsHughes86
Dance with the Devil
Saugus
Ecrasez l'infame!
Cheddabombs
Status Quo
- Mar 13, 2012
- 24,719
- 31,464
I agree with the vast majority of this. Love a good tier list too
Guadana
Registered User
Obviously Bardakov is in B tier, Orlov in the middle of B/C tiers, and I would split C tier to C&D, other than that its a great list.
Devils731
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2008
- 12,336
- 16,448
I would easily rank Karpovich over Hameenaho.
They're different positions, so it's tough to compare traditionally, but if we put it simply in chances of carving out a regular role in the NHL? Right now, I'd have to say Karpovich has the significant edge.
Quite simply, in order for Karpovich to progress into an effective NHL defender, all he must do is continue his current progression for 3-5 more years. Karpovich is 6'3-210, defends well, handles the puck well, skates quite well, is willing to play physically and has a bomb of a shot. All the tools are there, and no "red flags" cloud the picture. Though he lacks the singular elite tool which can lead us to project him as a top-pairing type, I'd have to say that his combination of plus tools and qualities give him legit second-pairing upside at the highest levels.
Hameenaho has two elite qualities which give him legit NHL upside, but it's important to note neither are *physical skills* -- but rather, the intangible qualities of hockey IQ and compete level. This is truly a kid who thinks and reacts to the game at an uncommon level, especially given his age. Hameenaho does possesses two plus skills physically, as his shooting is quite good and he has good size and strength. However, unlike Karpovich, Hameenaho also comes with a couple of *red flags* -- which is to say his skating is well below average and his puck-handling is a bit of a concern -- he bobbles pucks with some regularity and can display difficulty in receiving passes.
Thus, as opposed to Karpovich's projection arc -- in which (as stated above) his professional future simply requiress a consistency of current development trends -- Hameenaho needs to significantly improve multiple areas in order to even make it to the big show. This, by definition, makes Hameenaho a less likely future NHLer. We could still ignore these facts and rank Hameenaho higher were he some boom/bust sky-high-upside type, but that's also not the case. If Hameenaho overcomes the odds and significantly improves his skating and stick skills enough to make it, we're still not talking an elite shooter or passer or physical monster -- we're talking a likely bottom 6 type with some scoring pop due to the combination of smarts and a very good shot.
In conclusion, I'd say it's probably misleading to rank prospects simply based on the order they were drafted by a team. Right after the 2020 draft, I ranked Dawson Mercer ahead of Alexander Holtz with great confidence and oft-stated opinions. Before the dust had cleared on the 2021 draft I was ranking 7th rounder Zakhar Bardakov well ahead of 3rd rounder Samu Salminen. This year, I feel it's pretty much a no-brainer when I rank Karpovich ahead of Hameenaho for the reasons stated above.
The fact is, the Devils have yet to perfect "the art of the draft" under Tom Fitzgerald, but they've shown great skill in drafting out of Russia and, significantly, the MHL. These are probably the least-scouted top prospects annually in the draft, and as such the Devils know they can "wait a bit" on these prospects and draft them late. They've succeeded at this with Gritsyuk in the 2019 5th round, Orlov and Barabosha in 2022 (4th & 7th rounds) and with Karpovich in the 2023 6th round.
Ultimately, I'd say my highlight of the 2023 draft was that NJ grabbed a 2nd round talent in the 6th round with Karpovich. Hameenaho was a stretch to me in the 2nd round, but due to his extremely impressive intangibles he's a guy I would've really liked from the 4th round on.
Devils731
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2008
- 12,336
- 16,448
That’s fine but would you say that’s a generally held opinion at this moment after we saw how NHL teams felt about their value?
Depends whether we're talking about a team which aptly scouts and values MHLers.
Teams generally have league/nationality preferences which greatly influence them at the draft, for better or worse. Carolina has literally made a living by drafting well out of the MHL and KHL in recent years. Nikishin is their top prospect, while their top 10 prospects are over half Russian.
Arizona's recent drafting suggests a desire to follow suit, although their preoccupation with size has somewhat diminished their Russian returns.
Buffalo has made some strong picks out of Russia in recent years (Neuchev, Poltapov, Kisakov) in the later rounds, but have made some poorly conceived reach picks in the same time out of Sweden (Ostlund too early at 16 in 2022, Wahlberg over Nilsson at 39 this year).
As for the Devils, they've picked very well of late from the KHL and MHL, while maybe reaching on a couple of notable earlier picks on slow Finnish forwards, notably Salminen and Hameenaho. Like I keep saying about Hameenaho, I really like him -- he's a character kid with an extraordinary ability to think the game. But I'm still a bit sore with the pick of Salminen at #68 a couple years back -- especially since it allowed a division rival to nail the steal of 2nd-7th rounds of that draft with Stanislav Svozil with the very next pick. Salminen would have been a fine pick in the 6th/7th rounds, but certainly not the early 3rd.
Still, Czech players -- like Russians -- are often underscouted, undervalued and drafted later than they should. Without even cursory research we can cite Kulich or Svozil who, already, are easily top 15 picks in re-drafts of their respective years. This year Sale -- a top 10 prospect on upside alone -- fell to #20 where Seattle snatched him up.
I say this a lot, but I feel certain national/league biases still affect drafts -- and far too greatly -- even at the highest levels.
AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
The second Bardakov comes over he will immediately jump up a spot. I think he's perfect for a 4th line role. My favorite for that role used to be Moynihan for a lot for similar reasons, but his production seems to be trending in the wrong direction.
I haven't watched a second of Orlov's play and didn't feel comfortable rating him, and quite honestly I'm not sure how he fits in the organization long term. But I will take your word for it, wise one.
Maybe. IMO this is all very fluid. With an 18 year old you have very limited data. I had him right on the cusp but decided to err on the side of "he's young and I want to see a bit more."
His production in a men's league as a 17 year old was pretty solid but I have questions about how his skills will translate at the NHL level. I'm not sure I see any high end abilities nor do I think he's a slam dunk to play +100 NHL games. But as we see more of him the image will begin to crystalize.
We're just looking at a snapshot right now. Things will change in a year, hell things will change in 6 months. I don't think it's insulting to say that a guy who clearly needs more work is behind a guy that's flashing more at this age. Not indicative of anything at all. Luckily we have an embarrassment of young talent and can afford to be patient.
RememberTheName
Conductor of the Schmid Bandwagon
Every time I see talk about Lenni Hameenaho and his skating issue, I think back to how Cole Perfetti was perceived pre-draft. Best hockey sense in the draft, silky mitts, but pretty slow with poor acceleration. I remember that being a pretty big point of contention for a lot of people in the scouting community. Not saying Lenni is the same situation or as good as Perfetti, but I was just thinking about that.
Guadana
Registered User
Your B tier isn't about player who will(did) jump immediately. Bardakov is better skater and forecheker than most players of this tier. May be the best defensive forward.
Orlov played professional minutes as 18 yo, he is good skater and he is good mobile defensive defenseman. We don't know nothing about how this players fit with organisation - team is stuck, Clarke for example looks as poor bottom 6 player. We should rank their skils and trajectory.
With Lenny its a really interesting case, because he is polarizing with his skating. If he will develop it or adapt it, he can be top 6 F in best case scenario, if he will not, he can end up as a player without 82 nhl games.
Guadana
Registered User
Perfection isn't too 5 player from the draft now, and may be even not top 10.
We should talk not only about bright sides. Karpovuch should work on timings, gap control, positional read. Work better against the cycling. Im not saying he is bad, but he room to grow, especially with timings.
Bardakov was better than Stillman, like I said after the draft. Now he is top 5 - top 10 prospect and the only one forward with real potential as defensive forward in nhl. After Mercer Fitz and co found only Bardakov as defensive F. Its an issue Fitz should work with his scouts.
You ranked Holtz higher right after the draft, but you changed your opinion very fast. May be some Guadana man helped with it, when he was the only one (with a couple of dudes) who ranked Mercer higher end you helped him to watch qmjhl(like I heard, he is very thankful).
Lenny has top 6 potential because he iq and positional game are great. His puckhandling is good, skating is ruining his puckhandlinh, he should work a lot to balance and adjust his work of the parts of his body. With him its a question of big way he should walk we can't be sure he will.
May be Lenny can be defensive/two way forward too he has potential, but again - needs to work on his skating a lot. He isn't on the level of Cole Perfetti with his shot and playmaking.
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when we are talking about the devils prospect pool we shouldn't look anymore at the current needs on the nhl roster. contenders rarely integrate multiple rookies into their lineup.
once luke and she-mon come of their elc's the devils might be forced to move an expensive forward (meier, bratt, hischier, mercer), if the market for the likes of hamilton and palat is massively negative.
i wouldn't bet anything, that hughes, hischier, meier, bratt and mercer will all be devils in the summer 2026. having versatility in the prospect pool is always an asset and you can still include top6 or top4 talent in trades, if their is no opening or a surplus of alternatives.
Guadana
Registered User
You can see how good forechecker can be reliable as top 6 player in Tatar and Haula last year. Do they have enough skill now to play play driving/playmaking role? Or even scoring role? No, its laughable. But they have enough skill and positional iq with skating to play solid complimentary role. Im not penciling Bardakov as top 6 nhl forechekcer, he has serious issues with shot and he is good passer but not a very good playmaker. But im not ready to say he can't be. And even if he will not, you need good bottom line players , just look what kind of assets actual contenders spended for depth.
So Bardakov is EASILY one of the best prospects in B tier. We have questions about his future in NHL ofcourse, but we are talking about skill, floor and ceiling.
I don't think Devils will have real problems with the cap. It will be higher in the next years, and its not a rare practice to pay for trade out of contracts. We have space for Mercer, cap rise will help with Luke, and one trade/injury reserve of Palat will help with sign Nemec three four years away from now.
Bardakov is one player I am really excited to see come in. He's got unique skills that target certain spots in the lineup - he'd potentially be a star in that role rather than fall to the role because he has gaps in his capability. Big difference in someone falling to a position and another being targeted for it.
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