GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[Langway]

Nine points is a lot of ground for teams to make up down the stretch on the Caps. The 10th pick seems like the best case pre-lottery. Hard to see the Caps posting more long losing streaks. They'll struggle against teams that bring it but there's ample room to skim points otherwise. And there's more downward pressure than up, chiefly from DET & CGY. WPG also seems like they may tumble right out of it altogether.

MTL seems like the floor for Michkov given that they've got another mid-first via FLA to add perhaps a more immediate talent. More likely than trading up I guess would be them moving the pick for immediate help, though I don't know if there's an ideal fit out there that would single-handedly do enough to quell concerns about the fitness of 19/92 up the middle on a team that wants to win anything.

 

[pman25]

Liking what I read and see on Colby Barlow. Seems like a high IQ player but also relatively safe with a high floor but not lacking upside, kinda Chris Kreider like but not as fast. Picks 7 or so thru 20 seem like a big glut of guys, I can talk myself into just about any of them ranked there

 

[YippieKaey]

Personally i'd prefer Fantili over Michkov. Seems like a safer bet and plays C. Doubtful we're getting either though.

 

[usiel]

Personally i'd prefer Fantili over Michkov. Seems like a safer bet and plays C. Doubtful we're getting either though.

If somehow the Caps win #2 yeah this is going to be a super tough draft moxy pick.

 

[YippieKaey]

If somehow the Caps win #2 yeah this is going to be a super tough draft moxy pick.

As a swede i would also be happy if we got Leo Carlsson who has some really high end potential but a pretty low floor.

And as a lover of good puns and big forwards i wouldn't mind seeing Danil But (imagine the nickname potential!) stand in front of the opposing net for the next 10-15 years.

But both of those are probably gone when it's our turn.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

The time to tank is now. I’ve got the tingle that if they can drop down to 7 or 8 they might just get lucky.

I think this years lottery is going to be wacky.


I keep seeing Mocks with them taking Leonard.

Trading up for Michkov (if necessary) is something I’m all for.

Assuming the Caps don’t win a Top 2 selection, I’m hoping doubts about his size will get him to slide a few spots.

It’s Bedard alone in Tier 1A, then Fantilli and Michkov in Tier 2, then Carlsson slightly behind in Tier 2B, then a pretty big gap. Fantilli and Michkov would both be #1 picks in other years. I just can’t see the Caps being able to trade into a spot to draft in the top three or even top four/five (if Michkov slips due to being Russian and having a longer term contract in the KHL) if they don’t hit the lucky bouncing ball.

I don’t think last year’s #1 would go any higher than 5th this year. If Slafkovsky was in this year’s class he might not even go in front of Will Smith who will probably be 5 or 6. The top end of this draft is special and teams drafting that high will want and need a special player. And next year doesn’t have a consensus bonafide top prospect so teams will want to strike while the iron is hot this year.

A man can dream about a top line of Lapierre, Miro, and Michkov in 2025 though. That would be something to build on for sure. If Suzdalev continues on this positive progression track he’s on then maybe the high end talent in the pipeline wouldn’t be so bare.

As for situations not including ping pong balls, my early clubhouse leaders for spot 10 are Braden Yager, Oliver Moore, and Dalibor Dvorsky.

 

[Langway]

Bedard, Fantili, Michkov...Carlsson
Benson, Smith, Moore
Leonard, Dvorsky, Reinbacher/Barlow

I doubt that changes much down the stretch unless maybe Danielson or someone goes off and carries their club in the playoffs or U18s. I do like Barlow's two-way game but his skating isn't great for a guy that's pretty mature otherwise physically. I don't know that he's going to be able to change his angles in motion all that easily at the next level to get his shot through. Good instincts, somewhat crafty and well-rounded but at least a bit of a question mark when it comes to how dynamic he can be. I have similar concerns with Yager, only more amplified. Ideally the Caps walk away with a talent that's more explosive and slippery at the point of attack. Hard to imagine how they'd manage to break down teams without more of that element in the mix.

With Leonard (and certainly Moore) there's more quick twitch and downhill action. It's why I'd have a hard time being super bullish putting Cristal in the third tier (even overlooking his size). Craftiness and guile can carry players a fair way but in terms of complementing a fading core group they're going to need extremely well-rounded and athletic tonesetters. Really creative thinkers of the game, like a Sandin, can nonetheless drive play but I wouldn't count on that as being the ticket for them. Tools still matter quite a bit and ideally at 10/11 they're able to add someone that checks off each and every box.

 

[kicksavedave]

I don't follow the prospects apart from skimming this thread, but it feels like the Caps have taken the guy who dropped three years in a row - CMM, Lappy, Miro, all had issues that dropped them well below their initial ranking. They also did it when Forsberg dropped to them and that was a great pick (too bad we then effed it up). Seems like they like the high upside high risk guys. Any thoughts as to who might fit that category this year, the top 5-8 ranked guy who might slip to 10?

I'm not counting on winning the ping pong thing.

 

[Langway]

@kicksavedave Maybe Benson due to his height?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Personally i'd prefer Fantili over Michkov. Seems like a safer bet and plays C. Doubtful we're getting either though.

I’m all in on Fantili when we get the #2 pick…

 

[YippieKaey]

I’m all in on Fantili when we get the #2 pick…

You and me both brother

 

[pman25]

Bedard, Fantili, Michkov...Carlsson
Benson, Smith, Moore
Leonard, Dvorsky, Reinbacher/Barlow

I doubt that changes much down the stretch unless maybe Danielson or someone goes off and carries their club in the playoffs or U18s. I do like Barlow's two-way game but his skating isn't great for a guy that's pretty mature otherwise physically. I don't know that he's going to be able to change his angles in motion all that easily at the next level to get his shot through. Good instincts, somewhat crafty and well-rounded but at least a bit of a question mark when it comes to how dynamic he can be. I have similar concerns with Yager, only more amplified. Ideally the Caps walk away with a talent that's more explosive and slippery at the point of attack. Hard to imagine how they'd manage to break down teams without more of that element in the mix.

With Leonard (and certainly Moore) there's more quick twitch and downhill action. It's why I'd have a hard time being super bullish putting Cristal in the third tier (even overlooking his size). Craftiness and guile can carry players a fair way but in terms of complementing a fading core group they're going to need extremely well-rounded and athletic tonesetters. Really creative thinkers of the game, like a Sandin, can nonetheless drive play but I wouldn't count on that as being the ticket for them. Tools still matter quite a bit and ideally at 10/11 they're able to add someone that checks off each and every box.

Leonard and Moore are definitely right at the cusp of the top 10. Reinbacher is an easy one to see rise after the top 6 are gone. Top 4 RHD. Vancouver or Montreal will be over him. So that's 9. After that, Barlow very much appeals to me. Cristall seems like a faller for whatever reason, he doesn't seem to be as high amongst NHL scouts. Dvorsky and Sale i haven't read too much on, but would be interested to see those players more.

Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, Carlsson
Benson, Smith
Moore, Leonard, Reinbacher, Barlow, Dvorsky? Sale? Gulyayev?

Gulyayev impresses me quite a bit and I think he would probably grace the top 10 if he wasn't Russian. He's pretty exciting to watch. Sneaky pick I think if we are at 11 or 12. And he already plays with Miro!

 

[Langway]

Extending it out further given the wider range of 11-15 possibilities...

Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, Carlsson
Benson, Smith, Moore
Leonard, Barlow, Dvorsky, Danielson, Reinbacher
Yager, Sale, Wood

That should be all that's needed. Cristall probably doesn't fit their profile...ditto others like Brindley & Perreault. Honzek or But could be wild cards given their frames and skill. Once you get to Wood, due to his skating, maybe it opens up to consider Honzek or others but I'm guessing they'll wind up in position to nab an earlier option. They need players eager to do the little things to win because unless supremely talented it will be tough to gain traction otherwise. They need to a new stage of leaders. They basically need prototypical/foundational talents and unfortunately I think that may end at perhaps 7 with Moore. Leonard/Reinbacher/Barlow will be solid but fall short of that bar.

Given that it seems unlikely they'll be in position to add a top seven talent the remaining group is a matter of taste. Leonard does have that attacking spark most IMO. I wonder about creativity/vision a bit but he'll figure it out. Reinbacher hopefully pushes a forward down. Barlow is relatively safe as far as goal-scoring wingers go. Maybe not the most dynamic but solid. I find myself pushing Sale down, mostly since he needs to add a lot of strength and in the near-term seems like a Johansson type. Not terrible but I don't know that he's going to be what they'll need most. Good IQ but leaves you wanting a bit more. Dvorsky may draw similar responses but I at least like the makings of his two-way game. There may be some question as to upside but he profiles as a more dogged center than CMM/Lapierre and they can really use a play-driver up the middle. Danielson profiles similarly.

I have Gulyayev in the 20-32 range, similar to Sandin in his draft. He's a sound distributor and activator so maybe he's boosted in a weaker D class but there are limitations that combine with his passport to likely deflate his stock. ASP or Simashev may benefit more given a safer pro profile.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yager I liked early….how’s his season been?

 

[Langway]

Pedestrian. There are perhaps team factors at play and ultimately I'm not sure he sticks at center. Moose Jaw isn't that deep but, still, I would have expected him, Firkus & Mateychuk to dominate and they haven't. He's a fine straight ahead skater but isn't slippery or sudden east-west so there's not enough space creation. What carries him is the shot but there are enough questions where that alone doesn't distinguish him enough, particularly when surpassed in production by Leonard & Barlow. He still could be a decent 2RW and may be a savvy slider for someone able to surround him well and play to his strengths but I wouldn't consider him a better prospect than Miroshnichenko (let alone the top ten lock he seemed heading into the year). Stick him on WPG or PIT and they may have something in a couple years, so long as they play him on the wing. But the lack of breakthrough dominance makes it tough to sort him too early once it opens up and there has to be slight concern about the tool-set and toolbox.

That said, the shot tool is potentially elite and after Moore there are going to be blemishes in the games of everyone. It's just a matter of who you want to roll with that has the drive to refine their game. There are a handful of better fits but certainly after a while--given their need for goal-scoring--he still has to be a prime option.

 

[um]

Personally i'd prefer Fantili over Michkov. Seems like a safer bet and plays C. Doubtful we're getting either though.

It certainly is an interesting dilemma. I'm all about best player available, but I also want the last few years of Ovie's career to be relevant.

Hopefully Fantili is the best player.

 

[YippieKaey]

It certainly is an interesting dilemma. I'm all about best player available, but I also want the last few years of Ovie's career to be relevant.

Hopefully Fantili is the best player.

He should be more impactful. Michkov actually lacks a few tools but the ones he has makes up for it. His ceiling is higher but his floor is much lower and i personally feel like Michkov might be a bust. But im not a pro scout at all so.....bring out the tub of salt

 

[um]

He should be more impactful. Michkov actually lacks a few tools but the ones he has makes up for it. His ceiling is higher but his floor is much lower and i personally feel like Michkov might be a bust. But im not a pro scout at all so.....bring out the tub of salt

That's interesting. I remember watching Michkov go against Bedard a couple of years ago in some junior tournament and they looked quite comparable. However Fantili looked nowhere near Bedard based on the last world juniors.

Clearly all my knowledge is based on international tournaments, so I know nothing.

 

[usiel]

Still remember Kuzy's wjc run man that was some good stuff.

 

[YippieKaey]

That's interesting. I remember watching Michkov go against Bedard a couple of years ago in some junior tournament and they looked quite comparable. However Fantili looked nowhere near Bedard based on the last world juniors.

Clearly all my knowledge is based on international tournaments, so I know nothing.

The problem (as i understand it) with Michkov is he is small, lightly built and not a particularly great skater and he might find NHL ice and NHL defensemen too fast and strong to do everything on his own which is kind of his tendency. These days i feel like you need either great skating or great strength to play in the NHL and Michkov has neither of those.

But, i mean he is still dominant so might very well be an elite player anyways.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Saw some rumblings from a few guys in the know on Twitter that they’re hearing Michkov could go around 9th or later, reason being a few ownership and management teams are still relunctant to draft Russians in the current geopolitical environment and more pressingly, concern about his contract status with the KHL. 2025-26 is a long way to wait for some of those teams who need help sooner rather than later and some of them think they won’t be employed by the time he comes over if they can’t turn things around.

 

[YippieKaey]

Saw some rumblings from a few guys in the know on Twitter that they’re hearing Michkov could go around 9th or later, reason being a few ownership and management teams are still relunctant to draft Russians in the current geopolitical environment and more pressingly, concern about his contract status with the KHL. 2025-26 is a long way to wait for some of those teams who need help sooner rather than later and some of them think they won’t be employed by the time he comes over if they can’t turn things around.

Yeah true aswell.

 

[usiel]

Saw some rumblings from a few guys in the know on Twitter that they’re hearing Michkov could go around 9th or later, reason being a few ownership and management teams are still relunctant to draft Russians in the current geopolitical environment and more pressingly, concern about his contract status with the KHL. 2025-26 is a long way to wait for some of those teams who need help sooner rather than later and some of them think they won’t be employed by the time he comes over if they can’t turn things around.

Interesting. Currently the Blues, Canucks, Detroit, AZ are starting at #8 and up could definitely see Blues/Wings taking a gamble on a Russian player. Could make sense for the caps since the next two years are keeping the band together for goal record attempt.

 

[shtorm2005]

 

[Marshall]

Looking at the 9 - 13 range on different rankings lists, nobody jumps out at me as a "Caps type" player. Which should make it that much more interesting.

You know what? I'm fulla shit. Going off Bobby Margarita's mid-season list, Danielson or Ritchie strike me as Caps Guys.