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GDT: 2023-24 season game 7 LA Kings vs Arizona Coyotes @7:00pm 10/27/34

johnjm22

johnjm22

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Aug 2, 2005
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bland said:
What does that have to do with my post though?
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You're the one that brought up production.

bland said:
Lizotte is certainly not struggling and sitting him is a pretty strange take given that the Kings 4th line has been consistently excellent in the first six games.
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I suspect he's still having some back issues, which explains the problems he's having with face offs.

The 4th line has the worst xGF% on the team while playing the weakest competition. It's been offset by actual goals, which have come from an unsustainably high shooting percentage.

I'm not saying he should be benched. I'm just concerned the dude is getting close to spent, and the Kings might need to think about the longer term.
 
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bland

bland

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johnjm22 said:
You're the one that brought up production.


I suspect he's still having some back issues, which explains the problems he's having with face offs.

The 4th line has the worst xGF% on the team while playing the weakest competition. It's been offset by actual goals, which have come from an unsustainably high shooting percentage.

I'm not saying he should be benched. I'm just concerned the dude is getting close to spent, and the Kings might need to think about the longer term.
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You didn't, I was responding to RJ and you responded to me.

And your 4th line should always have the weakest offensive expectations. That's not their job. Using any kind of expectation metrics to compare and contrast your 4th line to your other units is so ridiculous.

Honestly, the stat related talk around here is just a pile of horse crap that bears no resemblance to the way the game is played and should be understood. Stats are the result of past play, not indicators of future events. There may be some correlations, but never anything that shouldn't already be known just by paying attention. There is this endless nerd fantasy/illusion of using digits to explain things that simply don't need to be explained. The numbers gathered on opening night have no bearing on the game tonight, the games next week or the games in May.

Truth is getting lost in the faux mathematical translation.
 
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johnjm22

johnjm22

Pseudo Intellectual
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19,835
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bland said:
And your 4th line should always have the weakest offensive expectations. That's not their job. Using any kind of expectation metrics to compare and contrast your 4th line to your other units is so ridiculous.
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Expected Goals For Percentage isn't a measure of offensive expectations.

It's the ratio of expected goals for verse expected goals against.

It has nothing to do with total offense.
 
Raccoon Jesus

Raccoon Jesus

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bland said:
You didn't, I was responding to RJ and you responded to me.

And your 4th line should always have the weakest offensive expectations. That's not their job. Using any kind of expectation metrics to compare and contrast your 4th line to your other units is so ridiculous.

Honestly, the stat related talk around here is just a pile of horse crap that bears no resemblance to the way the game is played and should be understood. Stats are the result of past play, not indicators of future events. There may be some correlations, but never anything that shouldn't already be known just by paying attention. There is this endless nerd fantasy/illusion of using digits to explain things that simply don't need to be explained. The numbers gathered on opening night have no bearing on the game tonight, the games next week or the games in May.

Truth is getting lost in the faux mathematical translation.
Click to expand...

Whoa whoa whoa, I didn't say he should be benched now either, only if he doesn't pick it up he should be a candidate for a guy to sit for Turcotte. There are others, notably Lewis. I'm watching the games AND using stats and it matches up well. They're missing a lot of checks for depth guys playing weak comp. I'ts only a matter of time before they get turned inside out.

Buddy you know I stick up for 4th liners here more than damn near anyone else, so when I say it, it's hopefully meaningful. He's noticably less effective at checking right now, looks to be laboring a bit.
 

Trash Panda

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May 12, 2021
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johnjm22 said:
Expected Goals For Percentage isn't a measure of offensive expectations.

It's the ratio of expected goals for verse expected goals against.

It has nothing to do with total offense.
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“Expected” is a load of road apples when it comes to the game of hockey.
 

Trash Panda

Registered User
May 12, 2021
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Chazz Reinhold said:
Do you even know what they signify?
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I am painfully aware of what the analytical data represents, and I completely see how people can use it as a jumping off point for evaluating players/lines.

I simply am arguing that the statistics don’t hold water on their own, as hockey is far too nuanced of a game to be understood solely through stats.

I f***ing hate how often they are applied to justify a point, tbh. There is so much more to the game than that.
 
Chazz Reinhold

Chazz Reinhold

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Sep 6, 2005
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Trash Panda said:
I am painfully aware of what the analytical data represents, and I completely see how people can use it as a jumping off point for evaluating players/lines.

I simply am arguing that the statistics don’t hold water on their own, as hockey is far too nuanced of a game to be understood solely through stats.

I f***ing hate how often they are applied to justify a point, tbh. There is so much more to the game than that.
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I don't recall anyone saying the game could be understood only through expected numbers. If I missed someone saying that, please correct me. They do provide a lot of context for what we see on the ice, though. I don't think it should be a controversial proposition that a team that generates more quality scoring chances in a game than it gives up is more likely to win that game (more likely, not guaranteed--things happen sometimes where an opposing goalie steals a game). It also shouldn't be a controversial proposition that a team that consistently generates more quality scoring chances than it gives up over the course of the season is more likely to win a fair majority of its games. There's a reason why the vast majority of playoff teams each season are the top half of the league in xG%, and it's because controlling quality chances for and against generally helps lead to successful results in hockey.
 
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FSL KINGS

FSL KINGS

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May 10, 2021
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Chazz Reinhold said:
Might as well fling the puck at the opposing net from the perimeter 60 times a game and let the other team have 60 shots against your goalie from the slot!
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Speaking of flinging the puck at the net, anyone see Doughty get more shots on net & fewer off the glass? Looks like he's taken some power off his shot & wristing pucks on the net for deflections.
 
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RayMartyniukTotems

RayMartyniukTotems

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Jul 8, 2022
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Lizotte is out,who's being brought up? JAD,Turcotte?

Army looks like he's been eating a lot of potato chips actually...where's Carrlyn?Stollie?
 
kingsholygrail

kingsholygrail

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Gjwrams

Gjwrams

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what the hell are drinking water for. You can’t be stinking tired and thirsty 37 seconds into the game!
 
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