GDT: 2022 NHL Trade Deadline Monday, March 21 3pm est

[Jags]

I think another thing that bothers me is that barring injury, McMichael isn’t likely to get a sweater in the postseason this year. Given that this year is a punt to some people, with next year being the time for a real push, shouldn’t a priority be to have McMichael in the lineup this year so that he has postseason experience entering next year?

It's never a coach's job to develop players in the playoffs. They're paid to win playoff games. You play your best players. No one wants to punt on this playoff year. We all want to make the most of the shot that we have now that the roster is settled. Not making bad, costly TDL moves doesn't mean anyone associated with this team doesn't want to win.

 

[Kalopsia]

I'd be kind of surprised if Anaheim didn't try selling John Gibson soon before the rest of the league finds out that he's not good and he becomes a toxic asset. He's in Martin Jones territory over the past three seasons but I think he's still seen as one of the league's best because he was good 4 years ago.

I guess they're in no rush since they aren't near the cap ceiling, but he's the type of player that could potentially return real assets right now without really hurting the team given his poor play.

It’s the flip side to east coast bias - we might be slow to notice guys out west breaking out, but we’re also slow to notice when they’re declining. I’d assume GMs have been paying attention enough to know he’s been league average-ish and getting outplayed by his backups for three years and it’s too late to fool one of them into taking that contract. They really should’ve made an effort to move him at last year’s deadline or the last offseason.

 

[twabby]

It's never a coach's job to develop players in the playoffs. They're paid to win playoff games. You play your best players. No one wants to punt on this playoff year. We all want to make the most of the shot that we have now that the roster is settled. Not making bad, costly TDL moves doesn't mean anyone associated with this team doesn't want to win.

There is some question in my mind that McMichael isn't a better option than, say, Lars Eller. Both short term and long term. Yet I doubt that Eller will ever be removed from the lineup barring injury.

The additions of Larsson and Johansson are fine. I didn't mean to suggest that they shouldn't have pursued them especially at the low prices they got them for. But there is a downside to these moves because they further restrict McMichael's ability to enter the lineup despite probably being one of their best 12 forwards and 4 best centers right this moment.

 

[Jags]

There is some question in my mind that McMichael isn't a better option than, say, Lars Eller. Both short term and long term. Yet I doubt that Eller will ever be removed from the lineup barring injury.

You might be right that McMichael could be better for the team offensively at evens than Eller, but Eller's the better defensive forward by far and we'd miss him on the PK. So if Eller gets hurt or snorts some more COVID during the playoffs, yeah, absolutely plug CMM into his spot instead of bumping Dowd up, and you'll have Larsson there if it doesn't work out. But otherwise Eller is the more valuable player overall IMO.

But there is a downside to these moves because they further restrict McMichael's ability to enter the lineup despite probably being one of their best 12 forwards and 4 best centers right this moment.

With the injuries we've had this season, CMM will probably still see plenty of time. And keep in mind that the new guys are depth forwards. In the playoffs with the cap and waivers less of an issue, they'll all be available to plug in and out based on what we need. So it's not just experience at play here. There's different skillsets, size, and physicality to consider, too. That's what depth is all about. Choices. If we end up playing FLA in the first round, we may find that we need to out-muscle them and counter with size and D, so maybe that's Protas and Larsson. Or we may need the extra punch and wheels on offense, in which case maybe Johansson and CMM get the nod.

That kind of depth is great to have.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

Johansson brings plenty to the table. He's a versatile guy with wheels that distributes the puck very well. This team has finishers; another playmaker is a good thing. And the "wasted assets" thing is nonsense...

"63% of first round picks played but less than 25% of second round picks survived and only 12% of third rounder selections. Former NHL general manager Doug MacLean said his math over the last decade showed that only 15% of second round picks ever become impact players."​

So we gave up three picks that had very small chances of yielding something substantial to bring in two good, versatile depth players.



Those players are not better than Johansson right now.



I think that's an overstatement, but even if it's 100% true he didn't produce a lot of the time, and when he's not producing the parts of his game that make him a liability are much more glaring. If he's going to just be a one-dimensional sniper, he either needs to produce more, produce more often, or at least shore up the deficiencies in the rest of his game. He didn't do those things and he's not a chemistry guy that makes players around him better. When he doesn't score, he's a liability.

compare the on ice metrics of malenstyn, leason and protas and they’re are all more impactful than Johansson. Sprong was literally 3rd on the team in G/60 and 2nd in ixG/60, when he was on the 3rd line with McMichael and Wilson they were completely dominant (72.2 xG%)

 

[g00n]

This is one of those Mantha situations, maybe. "Was he playing that way because he was on a bad team?"

We'll find out.

 

[Jags]

compare the on ice metrics of malenstyn, leason and protas and they’re are all more impactful than Johansson. Sprong was literally 3rd on the team in G/60 and 2nd in ixG/60, when he was on the 3rd line with McMichael and Wilson they were completely dominant (72.2 xG%)

Yeah, that's not how those stats work. Those guys logged most of their minutes during our best time of the year and Johansson's been playing for one of the very worst teams all year long. That one fact makes your whole perspective there fuzzy at best, and there are still other facts to consider. Another big one is that there's not many teams in the NHL where those guys would be NHL players right now. MoJo is an NHL player.

Context is very important when you use unbalanced metrics like these. Sprong? It's all been said. He's a one-dimensional liability. That one dimension is impressive, but not impressive enough to overcome his deficiencies. I'm done talking about him.

 

[Carlzner]

There is some question in my mind that McMichael isn't a better option than, say, Lars Eller. Both short term and long term. Yet I doubt that Eller will ever be removed from the lineup barring injury.

The additions of Larsson and Johansson are fine. I didn't mean to suggest that they shouldn't have pursued them especially at the low prices they got them for. But there is a downside to these moves because they further restrict McMichael's ability to enter the lineup despite probably being one of their best 12 forwards and 4 best centers right this moment.

I don't think Eller has been very good this season but it's silly of you to suggest that McMicheal is a better option than Eller in playoff hockey.

 

[twabby]

I don't think Eller has been very good this season but it's silly of you to suggest that McMicheal is a better option than Eller in playoff hockey.

I don’t know why you say that. Eller has been a no-show the past 3 postseasons, hasn’t been good this season, and is coming off two bouts of COVID and a groin injury from last season.

In a game that resembled playoff hockey against Carolina the other day McMichael was fantastic. It’s one game, but he consistently generates offense even if he has been poor at finishing his own chances. For a team that is goal-starved come postseason couldn’t it be a good idea to put together a Sheary-McMichael-Oshie third line? A player who drives offense along with a couple of good finishers?

Playoff hockey is certainly more physical, but more importantly it’s also faster and requires more crispness/decisiveness. Does Eller necessarily hold the edge there? I don’t think so.

 

[g00n]

CMM's playoff value is completely unknown. LOL

 

[HecticGlow]

Marcus Johansson used to have good analytics and possession stats in the playoffs, if I remember correctly. That Mojo-Kuzy-Williams line absolutely dominated Toronto and Pittsburgh in 2017, but were judged on not putting enough pucks in the net.

Sprong-CMM-Wilson looked really good in those games together, but Sprong and CMM just haven’t been producing consistently at the rates a contender needs from its third line (especially when playing limited, non-shutdown minutes). CMM should not be a lock for the playoffs just because he has good analytics, given the makeup and dynamic of the forward group as a whole.

 

[HecticGlow]

Oh, and I’m troubled by them immediately putting Mojo with Ovi and Kuzy. That’s the one spot we have more than enough evidence to know doesn’t work for him.

 

[SherVaughn30]

We cant trade Schultz he will be a FA. I cant see the ducks wanting just a 2nd and Sammy for Gibson. It would prob cost alot more and im OK with it. I like Gibson alot and he has a Holtby like cap hit. It does look like the ducks are unloading talent for picks so it good we still have our top ones

Gibson would cost more than a 2nd + Samsonov, but not to extent that I would cough up a 1st. Only select goalies would draw a 1st+ like Vasilevskiy, Price, Shesterkin, Sorokin and Markstrom.

Goalie	Sv%	HDSv%	GAA	GSAA
A	.921	.823	2.53	12.58
B	.904	.808	3.05	-4.23
C	.912	.798	2.55	9.02

These are the combined stats at all strengths over the last two seasons of Vitek Vanecek, John Gibson, and Gibson’s journeyman backup Anthony Stolarz. Not including GP totals in the chart so it’s not obvious, but Vanny’s played 69, Gibson 81, and Stolarz 29. Anyone wanna guess which one has a 6.4M cap hit for 5 more seasons?

Gibson is a workhorse #1 goalie. Ducks have over achieved and relied on him too much the last 2 seasons. I like VV improvement, but you are not gonna get 50 to 60 starts from him. VV is maybe at best good for 30 to 40 starts.

 

[twabby]

Marcus Johansson used to have good analytics and possession stats in the playoffs, if I remember correctly. That Mojo-Kuzy-Williams line absolutely dominated Toronto and Pittsburgh in 2017, but were judged on not putting enough pucks in the net.

Sprong-CMM-Wilson looked really good in those games together, but Sprong and CMM just haven’t been producing consistently at the rates a contender needs from its third line (especially when playing limited, non-shutdown minutes). CMM should not be a lock for the playoffs just because he has good analytics, given the makeup and dynamic of the forward group as a whole.

I don’t think McMichael should be a lock for the playoffs. But neither really should Eller given his play this year, his recent postseason history, and the fact that presumably Larsson can take over his PKing duties, and Johansson can take over his PP2 duties.

Crazy idea: perhaps the players should earn their spot based on merit?

 

[YippieKaey]

Damn we are stuck with Samsonov. Would love to know how many GM's Bmac talked to or if there was ANY interest at all.

I think he'll fetch a nice return in the offseason. The talent is there and goalies benefit the most from mental training. GMs know this too.

 

[traparatus]

I think he'll fetch a nice return in the offseason. The talent is there and goalies benefit the most from mental training. GMs know this too.

I think there is still a 2nd + 3rd value there. His athletic ability is undeniable and I'm sure there are plenty of goalie coaches around the league who want to give it a go.

 

[Hivemind]

Stupid 2nd GDT thread is confusing both @HTFN and me

 

[HTFN]

I’m in the wrong thread lol

 

[illpucks]

Would be nice if Vegas has to ship Dadonov to the Caps

 

[Hivemind]

edit - wrong thread

 

[HTFN]

delete

 

[g00n]

@AlexBrovechkin8 @hockeykicker

might want to lock this one up, people are posting here instead of the STL GDT

 

[Kalopsia]

Gibson would cost more than a 2nd + Samsonov, but not to extent that I would cough up a 1st. Only select goalies would draw a 1st+ like Vasilevskiy, Price, Shesterkin, Sorokin and Markstrom.

Gibson is a workhorse #1 goalie. Ducks have over achieved and relied on him too much the last 2 seasons. I like VV improvement, but you are not gonna get 50 to 60 starts from him. VV is maybe at best good for 30 to 40 starts.

Sure he's a workhorse, but is he really a #1 anymore? Check out the Ducks' goaltending each of the last three seasons, he got outplayed by a 39 yo Ryan Miller in 19-20, and by journeyman Stolarz in 20-21 and again this season. In the past three years Gibson has a -19.03 GSAA, good for 10th worst in hockey, right between Sam Montembault and Malcolm Subban. I don't want a guy who can play a lot of minutes if he won't actually be good in those minutes, especially if I'm gonna have to pay him 6.4M a year for the next 5 years. Maybe Vanecek will never be more than a 40 start guy, but at least there's a good chance he'll be above average in those starts. I'd rather go with him and a strong backup like Riemer than spend significant assets and cap space on a guy who already seems cooked.

 

[Langway]

More and more I'm fine with the meager deadline moves. The franchise needs ascending talents and value because increasingly the top-end can't drive the bus. The main way to add it is via the draft and picks around 20 and then in the 45-50 range can help. The issue is it'll take at least a year, if not two or three, and even then it'll take an exceptionally mature prospect to catch on and help in all facets. They need to focus more on defensive upside, two-way IQ and work-ethic in forwards earlier in the draft. Not to the extent of limiting upside but ideally more mature two-way talents over essentially one-dimensional, soft/perimeter offensive wingers, particularly as Backstrom looks not terribly far off from being a 3C 5v5. Leadership and intangibles should also be prioritized, not just in terms of an eventual transition toward the next era but in players able to crystalize their game come playoff time before then. They desperately need play drivers and it's not like McMichael or Lapierre project to be strong defensive players in the near-term. In general they'll increasingly need hard-working talents to do the dirty work older players will become even less capable of. Tom Wilson supplies a fair bit of it. Mantha some. Sheary when on has elements of it, at least as a forechecker. Oshie when healthy is a competitor. Johansson is probably miscast into being that sort of player. Through the middle of the ice the consistently smart engagement isn't there nearly enough. They don't really have that horse to lean on any longer. It's the dilemma with Backstrom but also in Eller's pronounced fall-off. Hard then to expect much team success when it matters given that they don't have the most reliable or rugged defenders from 1-6 to pick up the slack. The rest is mostly window dressing.

It's a hard dynamic to swim against and one that should inform personnel decisions more comprehensively than just papering over via defensive depth moves. It doesn't really work that conveniently. You can try to form two shutdown lines in the bottom six and it's not going to do much good if the top six is relatively easy to play against. Same for the top pair. If certain key areas aren't there it should force a reassessment and restructuring, if not in personnel then somehow in strategy to find a more coherent strength and targeted approach. That takes an honest assessment of this group and a much more hands-on type of approach. They're an aging somewhat talented team that's increasingly not dynamic, somewhat by design to compensate for weaknesses, and yet still no one's idea of a strong defensive team. Hence, essentially mediocrity. They are arguably the very poster child of it given their age and it's hard to figure how that changes in the near-term. It's a tough challenge for MacLellan barring something special happening to come together. Does he move out a couple older support players like Oshie & Eller in the summer and run the risk of falling further down the ranks? It's a delicate balance maintaining a semblance of competitiveness but one without abundant upside. Barring unexpected strides in some of their core players, which I think is safe to say is not happening, it's hard to figure they're doing much aside from going through the motions. Not a great look organizationally.