HF Habs: 2022 HF Habs Prospect Rankings #20

[KevSkillz4]

RHP, add Trudeau

 

[JianYang]

To each their own but are people forgetting that RHP turns 24 in January, is tiny and a below average skater with only 4 NHL games under his belt.

I would take most of the names in this poll over him just because they at least have a chance to become something more than a non zero value replacement level player.

He is a great kid and it isn't 100% impossible that he is more than a 4th liner/AHL tweener on a competetive franchise but it is not far from it. I am not "hating" on him as I am glad we have him and hopefully he will stick around for a while in Laval to help the real prospects when they get there.

Try offering RHP or Struble to NHL GM's and I know who they would want and it is not RHP. The truth is that this reality is not what drives these polls, it is mostly recency bias based on stats without context....that is fine though as this is a fan site and fans vote with their heart.

I think most people understand that RHP is a dime a a dozen kind of player, but it goes back to the same fundamental question.

How do you rate upside versus outcome? For example, Jordan Harris is listed quite in this list, and it's not because of his upside. He's there because many people feel he is a safe bet to be an NHL player. This is an example where the probable outcome outweighed the upside element.

I think the RHP vs struble debate is a less amplified version of the same thing. Which player has the more probable outcome to at least stick in the nhl as a depth player for a few years? I think we can all agree on who has the more upside, but the probably outcome is more murky.

 

[DAChampion]

How do you rate upside versus outcome?

If the outcome is "replacement level", then it should warrant nothing. The only thing that should matter is value over replacement.

 

[JianYang]

If the outcome is "replacement level", then it should warrant nothing. The only thing that should matter is value over replacement.

Relatively speaking, it's not nothing if you think the other guy won't become a replacement level.

We're splitting hairs here, but we are deep into the count at this point.

 

[DAChampion]

Relatively speaking, it's not nothing if you think the other guy won't become a replacement level.

We're splitting hairs here, but we are deep into the count at this point.

If you see nothing left but players with 0% chance to become better than replacement level, you should stop voting.

 

[JianYang]

If you see nothing left but players with 0% chance to become better than replacement level, you should stop voting.

Nobody said anything about zero percent chance. That's implying something entirely different.

 

[HABitual Fan]

If the outcome is "replacement level", then it should warrant nothing. The only thing that should matter is value over replacement.

I think that is an oversimplification of things. Sure you want them to be better than the player they are replacing, but there is room for replacement level as well. If you can find replacement level players like Evans or Pitlick at a third of the cost, you would not be saddled with the Armias and Byrons earning 3.4M to play on the 4th line. In order to succeed, having a steady stream of replacement level players to replace guys whose value in trade are higher than their true value to the team like Kulak, was, or have priced themselves out of what the team should be paying them for the role they are playing is a must. The guys at this point in the poll are the ones that potentially can fill that need.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

You talk as if it was already too late for him.

In reality, he has only 2 years of experience at pro level, which have been shortened and derailed by the pandemic. And despite this, he showed constant progress to the point of being his team best player in the AHL, including in a deep playoff run, and he also showed great things in his short stint in the NHL. If I had to bet on only one player to be an NHL regular among the current list, no doubt in my mind I'd bet on him. Some others might have higher ceilings, but they are long shots at best. RHP is almost guaranteed to be a fringe NHLer at worst, and a great 3rd liner at best, which is more than we can say about all others.

Like I said, he will be 24 in January and is small and slow......if he becomes a 4th liner that is almost entirely meaningless because we can replace him at minimum salary with veteran FA's. His chances of becoming more than that on a competitive team are slim to none. Almost every other prospect on this list has a more realistic chance of becoming more than a just a replacement level player. That is not to in any way imply that they are likely to reach such heights but at least there is a chance. You are placing way too much value on the likelihood of achieving 4th line replacement value which has very little value.

RHP's real value is likely as an AHL mentor who helps other younger prospects and helps to provide a professional, winning environment in Laval for them to flourish in.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I think most people understand that RHP is a dime a a dozen kind of player, but it goes back to the same fundamental question.

How do you rate upside versus outcome? For example, Jordan Harris is listed quite in this list, and it's not because of his upside. He's there because many people feel he is a safe bet to be an NHL player. This is an example where the probable outcome outweighed the upside element.

I think the RHP vs struble debate is a less amplified version of the same thing. Which player has the more probable outcome to at least stick in the nhl as a depth player for a few years? I think we can all agree on who has the more upside, but the probably outcome is more murky.

Harris and RHP aren't comparable as Harris' floor as a bottom pairing dman is far more valuable than a 4th line winger. Harris also has an outside chance to be a 2nd pairing dman due to his skating which is far superior to RHP's.

RHP may very well play a role during the rebuild but his future is almost certainly as an AHL/Euro league star or depth forward on bad NHL teams. I would love to be wrong but unless he magically improves his skating at 24 years of age I seriously doubt it. Such players have zero value in the NHL and can be had for free at minimum salary therefore why even consider them a prospect to begin with.

 

[JianYang]

Harris and RHP aren't comparable as Harris' floor as a bottom pairing dman is far more valuable than a 4th line winger. Harris also has an outside chance to be a 2nd pairing dman due to his skating which is far superior to RHP's.

RHP may very well play a role during the rebuild but his future is almost certainly as an AHL/Euro league star or depth forward on bad NHL teams. I would love to be wrong but unless he magically improves his skating at 24 years of age I seriously doubt it. Such players have zero value in the NHL and can be had for free at minimum salary therefore why even consider them a prospect to begin with.

I didn't say they were comparable as prospects. I said this situation is a less amplified one.

 

[NeptunesTrident]

Tuch add Vrbetic

 

[DAChampion]

I think that is an oversimplification of things. Sure you want them to be better than the player they are replacing, but there is room for replacement level as well. If you can find replacement level players like Evans or Pitlick at a third of the cost, you would not be saddled with the Armias and Byrons earning 3.4M to play on the 4th line. In order to succeed, having a steady stream of replacement level players to replace guys whose value in trade are higher than their true value to the team like Kulak, was, or have priced themselves out of what the team should be paying them for the role they are playing is a must. The guys at this point in the poll are the ones that potentially can fill that need.

I think that's unfair as well. Armia and Byron are being overpaid because the GM mistakenly thought that they were considerably superior to replacement -level players.

Earlier in his tenure, the same GM was expensing 5th round draft picks to acquire Torrey Mitchell, Bryan Flynn, etc. That's what those guys are worth.

 

[WatchfulElm]

Like I said, he will be 24 in January and is small and slow......if he becomes a 4th liner that is almost entirely meaningless because we can replace him at minimum salary with veteran FA's. His chances of becoming more than that on a competitive team are slim to none. Almost every other prospect on this list has a more realistic chance of becoming more than a just a replacement level player. That is not to in any way imply that they are likely to reach such heights but at least there is a chance. You are placing way too much value on the likelihood of achieving 4th line replacement value which has very little value.

RHP's real value is likely as an AHL mentor who helps other younger prospects and helps to provide a professional, winning environment in Laval for them to flourish in.

I think we simply disagree on RHP ceiling. At the rate he's improving in the AHL, there's still a chance he becomes a valuable 3rd liner, with 15-15 yearly production.

Also, we totally disagree on the value of 4th liners. 4th liners on a good team are not just replacement players, paid at minimum salary. Good teams have good 4th liners such as Patrick Maroon, Darren Helm, Nick Foligno, Mattias Janmark, Patrik Hornqvist, Martin/Cizikas/Clutterbuck, Wayne Simmonds, etc. I disagree that you can easily get good veteran 4th liners at minimum salary, and ice a competitive team.

Actually, here is the full list of 27 years and older 4th liners signed this summer, at 850k or less :

Zach Sanford
Kiefer Sherwood
Josh Leivo
Nathan Walker
Sakari Manninen
Ryan Carpenter
Glenn Gawdin
Andrew Poturalski

These are the replacement players you are talking about. You believe this is RHP's ceiling?

I agree he could end up like them. But his ceiling??

I think he can be better than that, and at a minimum salary too!

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

The reality is that prospecting is subjective. Guys fall in the draft as well because they look like they might have low ceilings, but sometimes those assumptions are wrong. There's no right or wrong. Anybody who plays hundreds of NHL games is by definition better than a replacement level player (or else they would be replaced). Just have to wait and see how it turns out.

 

[26Mats]

I think we simply disagree on RHP ceiling. At the rate he's improving in the AHL, there's still a chance he becomes a valuable 3rd liner, with 15-15 yearly production.

Also, we totally disagree on the value of 4th liners. 4th liners on a good team are not just replacement players, paid at minimum salary. Good teams have good 4th liners such as Patrick Maroon, Darren Helm, Nick Foligno, Mattias Janmark, Patrik Hornqvist, Martin/Cizikas/Clutterbuck, Wayne Simmonds, etc. I disagree that you can easily get good veteran 4th liners at minimum salary, and ice a competitive team.

Actually, here is the full list of 27 years and older 4th liners signed this summer, at 850k or less :

Zach Sanford
Kiefer Sherwood
Josh Leivo
Nathan Walker
Sakari Manninen
Ryan Carpenter
Glenn Gawdin
Andrew Poturalski

These are the replacement players you are talking about. You believe this is RHP's ceiling?

I agree he could end up like them. But his ceiling??

I think he can be better than that, and at a minimum salary too!

It seems to me @Estimated_Prophet 's main point is RHP is small and not that fast, and so that caps his ceiling.

I'll in all honesty have to go back and watch more of RHP to see if I agree. I do like his intangibles and offensive abilities. So I have to see more.

Gallagher when he first came into the league, was much slower than he was in his prime, after really bulking up his leg strength. Gallagher is by all accounts a huge gym rat.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

I'm not a very big fan of Kapanen, I would try and use him as a throw in prospect for better value next time we make a deal

 

[Mrb1p]

I think that's unfair as well. Armia and Byron are being overpaid because the GM mistakenly thought that they were considerably superior to replacement -level players.

Earlier in his tenure, the same GM was expensing 5th round draft picks to acquire Torrey Mitchell, Bryan Flynn, etc. That's what those guys are worth.

Byron has the same production as RHP at the same age. Mentionning him pretty much implies he has a future in the NHL.

 

[Mrb1p]

It seems to me @Estimated_Prophet 's main point is RHP is small and not that fast, and so that caps his ceiling.

I'll in all honesty have to go back and watch more of RHP to see if I agree. I do like his intangibles and offensive abilities. So I have to see more.

Gallagher when he first came into the league, was much slower than he was in his prime, after really bulking up his leg strength. Gallagher is by all accounts a huge gym rat.

He is small and not that fast but his inside game is absolutely NHL worthy, hes good defensively, battles hard, is somewhat physical, and I have little doubt he can chip in 20-30 pts in a season. To claim hes a nothing prospect is kinda weird. Yes, hes 24... but its not the first 24 YO 4th liner that makes it at this age.