GDT: 2022-23 Season game 51 LA Kings vs Florida Panthers @4:00 1/27/23

[johnjm22]

You are cutting off a part of the article, and ignoring how he reached his conclusion.

"On the whole, there is little to no evidence that momentum exists within hockey, as judged by whether or not previous goal sequences imply future outcomes."

But he begins by saying: "Of course, there’s no real way of knowing which team believes it has momentum.

So perhaps this question is more appropriate: Are teams more likely to score if they were the more recent team to score?"

And the first line is: "Actually, it both exists and doesn’t exist simultaneously!"

The point was that momentum couldn't be quantified using the methodology he applied. Not that it didn't exist.

From the conclusion of your next article:
"So momentum may exist, but it is much more rare than the typical fan may believe, especially when examining the entire 82-game season. Though, statistically speaking, the St. Louis Blues did not show any signs of momentum, they did look like a different team in the second half of the season."

For the third article provided:
- It actually has no published studies. It just refers to other articles but doesn't actually provide the data
- The article says: "It's what color commentators and sports analysts frequently refer to as "momentum." But researchers say there's no quantifiable evidence that it exists." That's actually not saying it doesn't exist. It's like when scientists don't find evidence of there being a supreme being but they may still go to church. You don't have evidence, but you can still believe it occurs.

==========

I understand and am sure that there are SOME people who rely on analytics and don't think momentum exist (like that one person whose tweet you referenced who seemed to ignore the momentum a team would need to go on a 23-0 run). And I agree they don't understand the game. Especially the psychological impact of emotional momentum. But I think we've not found a good way to "measure" momentum, or at least admit to ourselves that there are some variables, such as momentum, which the analytics can't account for.

A guy I listen to on sports talk radio who's into analytics repeatedly says momentum doesn't exist. So I hear it more often than most people.

The people who think that, usually use it to criticize football coaches who make decisions based momentum. Like kicking a field goal to get momentum instead of going for it on 4th and goal at the opponent's 2 yard line when losing 17-0 for example.

As I said in my original post, some people don't think momentum in sports is a real thing, but for me it depends on how you define it. I think most people, even if they're into analytics, would agree with the latter.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Yea there was nothing last night, Danault made a bad pass and Durzi got caught, but that was 100% on Danault.....

Durzi, I'm not sure if I would use the phrase reeled it in, I would say he's learning the difference of when to go and when not to go

You are probably a lawyer or somehow involved in the justice system.

 

[unicornpig]

Are you seriously comparing the 22/23 Kings with the 11/12 or 13/14 Kings? Have you experienced any loss of time? Do you smell burning toast?

The Kings were +21 in 11/12 after the Jeff Carter trade. They were +27 in the playoffs.

They were +32 in 13/14 in the regular season. +17 in the playoffs.

I think you should lie down for a while now.

Think you' should stop shifting goal posts lol. The kings were plus 15 in 2012 love how you added the carter caveat. Just like you said adding a scorer helps the goals scoring. Something all the league would benefit from lol We won't know the playoff playoff differential until the yam you know actually plays in the playoffs lol. Just as I post this quick give up a goal on 2 shots lol

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Think you' should stop shifting goal posts lol. The kings were plus 15 in 2012 love how you added the carter caveat. We won't know the playoff playoff differential until the yam you know actually plays in the playoffs lol

Are you serious? You started this by shifting the goal posts.

You conveniently eliminated 2/3 of the games played this year and only focused on Copley’s starts to paint the Kings GD in a better light. And you still wound up with a middling GD.

What about the Kings +32 in 13/14? Have anything to say there? You have no clue what you’re talking about.

 

[unicornpig]

Are you serious? You started this by shifting the goal posts.

You conveniently eliminated 2/3 of the games played this year and only focused on Copley’s starts to paint the Kings GD in a better light. And you still wound up with a middling GD.

What about the Kings +32 in 13/14? Have anything to say there? You have no clue what you’re talking about.

I didn't eliminate anything they were terrible solely due to garbage goaltending. Now they're getting average goaltending and they have a plus goal differential are in a playoff spot. It's not hard to comprehend but you seem to have a hard time with it. And as we speak 2 goals on 4 shots with quick in net

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I didn't eliminate anything they were terrible solely due to garbage goaltending. Now they're getting average goaltending and they have a plus goal differential are in a playoff spot. It's not hard to comprehend but you seem to have a hard time with it. And as we speak 2 goals on 4 shots with quick in net

+8 is not a “good” goal differential. It’s a dead average goal differential. 16th in the league. 8th in the west.

Why are you allowed to recontextualize goal differential in 22/23 and I can’t do the same in 11/12?

Still no response to that +32 in 13/14, though. Yikes. Almost as if you’re shamelessly arguing in bad faith.

 

[unicornpig]

+8 is not a “good” goal differential. It’s a dead average goal differential. 16th in the league. 8th in the west.

Why are you allowed to recontextualize goal differential in 22/23 and I can’t do the same in 11/12?

Still no response to that +32 in 13/14, though. Yikes. Almost as if you’re shamelessly arguing in bad faith.

Copley's played 19 games. What goal diff do you want 30 lol. It was + 15 2012 good enough to win the cup. But I'll look for you to shift goal posts again. And look at that quick gives up another goal

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Copley's played 19 games. What goal diff do you want 30 lol. It was + 15 2012 good enough to win the cup. But I'll look for you to shift goal posts again. And look at that quick gives up another goal

You shifted the goal posts, you absolute doorknob. You’re literally focusing on a small set of games played by a single goaltender. What the f*** do you think moving the goalposts means?

Do you think the Kings have a legitimate shot at a Stanley Cup this season?

 

[unicornpig]

You shifted the goal posts, you absolute doorknob. You’re literally focusing on a small set of games played by a single goaltender. What the f*** do you think moving the goalposts means?

Do you think the Kings have a legitimate shot at a Stanley Cup this season?

He's played nearly half the games now lol. kings are closer to being a cup contender than a non playoff team like you make them out to be

 

[SettlementRichie10]

He's played nearly half the games now lol. kings are closer to being a cup contender than a non playoff team like you make them out to be

I literally just said they are a fringe playoff team. So let’s add sudden memory loss to your growing list of stroke symptoms.

YOU moved the goalposts by throwing out the Kings’ miserable goal differential in Petersen/Quick games and focusing only on Copley games.

Which, hilariously enough, still isn’t that good of a goal differential.

You’ve been wrong on every single statistical point you’ve made. You’ve accused me of moving goalposts when you started this exercise in abject communicative futility by moving goalposts. And you can’t even remember what I said to you three posts ago.

So I’m going to do us both a favor and bow out. You can continue living in whatever fairytale dimension where the 22/23 Kings are closer to winning a Cup than they are missing the playoffs.

 

[kingsholygrail]

So the Kings get blown out more often than they blow out other teams, and somehow that’s a defense of their overall value in relation to goal differential. This is galaxy brain mental gymnastics.

The Kings have a crappy goal differential because they’re a fringe playoff team. This is not complicated.

The best way to analyze a lot of statistics, especially when figuring out averages, is to eliminate the outliers that can throw numbers. Tossing out blowouts, for and against, is actually a good idea if you want to see what the average night looks like.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

The best way to analyze a lot of statistics, especially when figuring out averages, is to eliminate the outliers that can throw numbers. Tossing out blowouts, for and against, is actually a good idea if you want to see what the average night looks like.

I’m fine with that as long as people are doing it for both ends of the spectrum, as you said. Otherwise you’re just skewing numbers one way or the other.