Prospect Info: [2022 - 1st OA] Juraj Slafkovsky (LW) Part 5

[BaseballCoach]

Starters, you put words in my mouth bringing up that Josh Anderson claim. That wasn’t my point. Second, this has nothing to do with intelligence. The most intelligent people make mistakes. Third, I said “I think” meaning I was giving my opinion.

When members of the staff tell me they’re scared about demoting a green as grass player from the best league in the world at 18 years old when it literally happens all the time after watching him going threw the motions for half a season and having a 15 game pointless streak out of fear for his confidence, it comes across as an excuse. I don’t view that as a good answer as to why they didn’t take a different course of action. If he can’t understand why being demoted at that age could be beneficial, then he’s entitled. And no, I don’t think being around Marty St. Louis who has no resume outside of Montreal as a coach and a random vet like Josh Anderson justifies keeping Slafkovsky here at all costs. You can say he was “absorbing” this and that but very little of that was showing on the ice. I’ve seen a lot of our fanbase really digging in to find the smallest things to find he was improving on and that’s not a good thing and it is staggering if they were watching that and thinking that was progress at an “acceptable rate.” He’ll be in his 40’s before he gets anywhere crawling at that pace.

The Habs brass did not feel that Slafkovsky was going through the motions, you do.

The Habs brass do not feel that MSL has little or no value added in bringing along players to a better NHL level, you do.

The Habs brass did not have high expectations of Slaf's first season in terms of points . You referencing fans (posters on a forum) instead of clearly dealing with the brass' quotes and stated goals is sleight of hand.

The Habs brass did not feel that Slafkovsky's improvement curve would require him to be in his 40s before he gets anywhere, you do.

And yes, you did question their intelligence, first saying you "questioned the intelligence of HuGo" and now doubling down and calling their logic "staggering".

My point in rebuttal though is that this 'clash' (it's not a debate when one party assumes their conclusions) is not about intelligence. This is because they did not share your judgments, therefore the logical approach was going to be different than yours, and it is not proof one way or the other of whether or not Hugo "lack intelligence".

People who lack intelligence don't find a way to acquire Dach like they did, Matheson like they did or Monahan like they did.

It seems to me you are intentionally skewing every statement to fit an agenda. Of course ONE vet like Anderson is not a reason to play Slaf in the NHL. But that was in fact one example of many. In Montreal, Slaf was slated to also be growing with Suzuki instead of Bourque, Guhle instead of Norlinder, Gallagher instead of Simoneau, Dach instead of Teasdale, and I could give more examples if you wanted.

 

[BaseballCoach]

HuGo & MSL made it clear at start of the season, “development success” this season would be measured by assessing how Slaf acclimatized to being around pros & learning the NA NHL game through osmosis not about stats.

One can agree or disagree w approach, but that was the basis of measuring Slaf’s rookie season by the org

This gentleman understands what took place.

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

I understand he went first overall, but fans need to accept the fact that he will just be a very good top six forward. Nothing more, nothing less. 25-30 goals per year would be reasonable.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Okay sure.

Have you ever heard of this approach? Has it ever worked? Do we have a way to weigh the likelihood of success and failure of this Osmosis Development approach?

I wish some “journalists” would evaluate this concept without just insisting on it.

I feel like it’s a total black box where defenders of the Habs organization’s decision cannot point to any specific thing but just say “be patient, it will surely work”. What is the mechanism by which Slaf will improve — osmosis? Do other teams do this? Which players can we point to as Osmosis Graduates?

It kind of IS osmosis so you are not being disingenuous here, but yes there are countless examples of young players who got better, a lot better, by developing within the NHL, by competing against the best and learning what works and does not work for them, while receiving and processing coaching.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi finally clicked in D+5, pacing 69 points per season after Feb 1st while playing solid defensively. His 43 points for the season overall would have put him second on the Habs, and his +10 first. Of course his context helps but being the fourth or fifth best forward on a powerful team is a noteworthy status.

KK's development has been almost entirely in the NHL. His fleeting 13 game stint in Laval 3 years ago, with one goal scored, is not why he is more effectively realizing his potential now. It's the 352 games in the NHL learning 'by osmosis'.

I'm convinced that the current Habs management would have handled KK differently and we would probably have the guy long-term at less than $4.82M, and not have Dvorak, nor turned a 2nd round pick into a 3rd in the process.

 

[ReHabs]

It kind of IS osmosis so you are not being disingenuous here, but yes there are countless examples of young players who got better, a lot better, by developing within the NHL, by competing against the best and learning what works and does not work for them, while receiving and processing coaching.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi finally clicked in D+5, pacing 69 points per season after Feb 1st while playing solid defensively. His 43 points would have put him second on the Habs, and his +10 first. Of course his context helps but being the fourth or fifth best forward on a powerful team is a noteworthy status.

KK's development has been almost entirely in the NHL. His fleeting 13 game stint in Laval 3 years ago, with one goal scored, is not why he is more effectively realizing his potential now. It's the 352 games in the NHL learning 'by osmosis'.

I'm quoting the term used by @salbutera -- otherwise I'm sure someone would object to the term osmosis if I had used it (I have in the past).

I don't think Jesperi Kotkaniemi is a model of good development outcomes. Many think he's been either stunted (bad outcome) or he was never worthy of his draft position (bad outcome). In fact, I'd go on to say that Kotkaniemi is a model of bad development process and outcome. He was so unsatisfied he signed an offersheet to leave the Habs, he was so mistrusted by the organization that invested so much into him that they preferred to play a broken down double-hernia suffering Gallagher and similarly injured Toffoli over Kotkaniemi in the playoffs. I want Kotkaniemi's success but I wouldn't point to him a successful top3 pick.

The questions I posed in my tweet remain. Let's assume this Osmosis Development approach works -- can we see some more evidence of it? Surely not McDavid and such, they were NHL-ready and are often brought up as non-Slafkovsky level players. I'm asking if the Osmosis Development approach works for players of Slafkovsky's level -- projects -- as it were.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I'm quoting the term used by @salbutera -- otherwise I'm sure someone would object to the term osmosis if I had used it (I have in the past).

I don't think Jesperi Kotkaniemi is a model of good development outcomes. Many think he's been either stunted (bad outcome) or he was never worthy of his draft position (bad outcome). In fact, I'd go on to say that Kotkaniemi is a model of bad development process and outcome. He was so unsatisfied he signed an offersheet to leave the Habs, he was so mistrusted by the organization that invested so much into him that they preferred to play a broken down double-hernia suffering Gallagher and similarly injured Toffoli over Kotkaniemi in the playoffs. I want Kotkaniemi's success but I wouldn't point to him a successful top3 pick.

The questions I posed in my tweet remain. Let's assume this Osmosis Development approach works -- can we see some more evidence of it? Surely not McDavid and such, they were NHL-ready and are often brought up as non-Slafkovsky level players. I'm asking if the Osmosis Development approach works for players of Slafkovsky's level -- projects -- as it were.

That does not refute the point I was making. DESPITE being drafted too high, and despite being mismanaged for three seasons, as you pointed out, KK still learned a lot by 'osmosis', by playing with and against the best, and once the conditions surrounding that development changed, the progress was obvious. It still took 1.6 years in Carolina to get to the level he got to.

Despite the slightly disparaging connotation to the term 'osmosis', in-league development happens a lot, and the NHL is not the first time most of these players experienced it.

Leaving aside the McDavid/Bedard level players, most really good Bantam players drafted high into Major Junior and skipping the Midget AAA years (or playing midget AAA under-age then getting drafted) do the same. They get better by osmosis for 4 years and are much bigger contributors at age 19 than they were at 16. Whether to play them in the CHL instead of Midget AAA to start turns out to very often be the right route.

 

[ReHabs]

That does not refute the point I was making. DESPITE being drafted too high, and despite being mismanaged for three seasons, as you pointed out, KK still learned a lot by 'osmosis', by playing with and against the best, and once the conditions surrounding that development changed, the progress was obvious. It still took 1.6 years in Carolina to get to the level he got to.

KK "learning a lot" is still not that impressive. He's had half a season in his career so far where he's looked solid. Not even one full season. And that's on a very good team. I'm sure he'll build on it but my point is that KK is not the right example to justify rushing Slafkovsky. It would be a MASSIVE let down if Slafkovsky turns out to be as effective and productive as KK five years into his NHL career.

But let's put KK aside. Has anyone else become an impact player via this Osmosis Development plan?

 

[OnTheRun]

KK "learning a lot" is still not that impressive. He's had half a season in his career so far where he's looked solid. Not even one full season. And that's on a very good team. I'm sure he'll build on it but my point is that KK is not the right example to justify rushing Slafkovsky. It would be a MASSIVE let down if Slafkovsky turns out to be as effective and productive as KK five years into his NHL career.

But let's put KK aside. Has anyone else become an impact player via this Osmosis Development plan?

Current coaching staff/management are -not- handling Slaf the same way previous coaching staff/management handled KK.
They both started in the NHL, but the comparison stop there.

 

[BLONG7]

I still think Slaf will have a good NHL career, it's going to be a 3 year process to get him there.
To a man, the organization thinks he is going to be a god one...............something they know we do not have access to.............behavior? Good attitude? Work ethic? Something is telling MSL and HuGo this kid is going to be fine............

We are still playing hunches here, but I am cautiously optimistic.....

 

[BaseballCoach]

KK "learning a lot" is still not that impressive. He's had half a season in his career so far where he's looked solid. Not even one full season. And that's on a very good team. I'm sure he'll build on it but my point is that KK is not the right example to justify rushing Slafkovsky. It would be a MASSIVE let down if Slafkovsky turns out to be as effective and productive as KK five years into his NHL career.

But let's put KK aside. Has anyone else become an impact player via this Osmosis Development plan?

Literally dozens if not humdreds. Here is one you know - Vincent Lecavalier.

And I agree with you, KK was mismanaged, and would have been an impact player earlier if handled better, even if his proper draft rank was probably 10-15.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Current coaching staff/management are -not- handling Slaf the same way previous coaching staff/management handled KK.
They both started in the NHL, but the comparison stop there.

Brady Tkachuk also started in the NHL despite 'not proving his offence' at the previous level - scoring only 8 goals in 40 games in the NCAA, fifth in ppg on his own team.

Will anyone try to claim that Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi were handled similarly?

 

[Ezpz]

Brady Tkachuk also started in the NHL despite 'not proving his offence' at the previous level - scoring only 8 goals in 40 games in the NCAA, fifth in ppg on his own team.

Will anyone try to claim that Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi were handled similarly?

KK and Slaf have more in common as Tkachuk was given top 6 minutes from the get go. Ottawa has always been great at player development because they simply let their vets walk and give young guys prominent roles to grow into. Even when Brady was a 40-point guy for three years they never took him off the top line.

As much as I hate the Sens, they really have been the model of "development" since the late 90's. Moreso then Detroit or Tampa who fluke out with late European picks nobody else scouted. What other team would have given Mark Stone, as he was as a rookie, top line minutes?

 

[NotProkofievian]

Brady Tkachuk also started in the NHL despite 'not proving his offence' at the previous level - scoring only 8 goals in 40 games in the NCAA, fifth in ppg on his own team.

Will anyone try to claim that Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi were handled similarly?

Nobody would be saying shit about Slaf if he played like Brady out of the gate. He didn't though, now did he?

 

[OnTheRun]

Nobody would be saying shit about Slaf if he played like Brady out of the gate. He didn't though, now did he?

Is Slaf career path now set in stone after his first 39(?) games? If it's not, what's the point of saying shit?

 

[NotProkofievian]

Is Slaf career path now set in stone after his first 39(?) games? If it's not, what's the point of saying shit?

I don't understand the question: can we only comment on things that are set in stone?

 

[ReHabs]

Current coaching staff/management are -not- handling Slaf the same way previous coaching staff/management handled KK.
They both started in the NHL, but the comparison stop there.

Okay, can you name anyone with Slaf's pedigree (ie a player who is a not a blue-chip; a project) who developed into an impact player via this Osmosis Development method?

Literally dozens if not humdreds. Here is one you know - Vincent Lecavalier.

And I agree with you, KK was mismanaged, and would have been an impact player earlier if handled better, even if his proper draft rank was probably 10-15.

Lecavalier was a higher tier of prospect than Slafkovsky. I'm sorry to say but you're reaching 25 years into the past... If you can only bring up Kotkaniemi (stunted) and Lecavalier (inadmissible) I'm not sure you really believe in the Osmosis Development approach.

Brady Tkachuk also started in the NHL despite 'not proving his offence' at the previous level - scoring only 8 goals in 40 games in the NCAA, fifth in ppg on his own team.

Will anyone try to claim that Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi were handled similarly?

Brady put those questions to bed in his rookie season. Slafkovsky did not.

KK and Slaf have more in common as Tkachuk was given top 6 minutes from the get go. Ottawa has always been great at player development because they simply let their vets walk and give young guys prominent roles to grow into. Even when Brady was a 40-point guy for three years they never took him off the top line.

As much as I hate the Sens, they really have been the model of "development" since the late 90's. Moreso then Detroit or Tampa who fluke out with late European picks nobody else scouted. What other team would have given Mark Stone, as he was as a rookie, top line minutes?

Agree -- Ottawa, for all their faults, are exceedingly good at developing impact players. We should crib from them.

I think if Slaf was given top6 minutes maybe I would believe in this Osmosis Development theory but he was not, which defeated the purpose (imo) of giving him touches and TOI. Maybe he wasn't up for it on a stamina level, maybe MSL didn't like how Slaf trained (hopefully not), maybe Slaf wasn't making the right reads and plays in MSL's open system and couldn't earn MSL's trust... whatever the case may be, this year's approach to his development sure as hell seemed less-than-ideal.

 

[OnTheRun]

I don't understand the question: can we only comment on things that are set in stone?

It's a simple question... I think?
Do we know the outcome already or not?

 

[NotProkofievian]

It's a simple question... I think?
Do we know the outcome already or not?

We do not. But why can't we comment on it?

 

[OnTheRun]

We do not. But why can't we comment on it?

But we can comment on it, and people clearly do. But not everyone seems to acknowledge the situation as fluid, so now that we cleared that up, back to Brady.
How much of a big deal it is for Slaf career to not play like Brady right out of the game?

 

[NotProkofievian]

But we can comment on it, and people clearly do. But not everyone seems to acknowledge the situation as fluid, so now that we cleared that up, back to Brady.
How much of a big deal it is for Slaf career to not play like Brady right out of the game?

It could be a big deal if he doesn't find his footing quickly enough. I have two concerns right now. The first is the plan going forward. What do we expect from him this coming season? What happens if he doesn't meet expectations two years running? The second is contract control. One thing that gets missed in the KK debates is the idea that he shouldn't have been eligible for that offer sheet with correct management.

 

[1909]

If he doesn't react well we will know he isn't mature or mentally ready to be a NHL pro. If being in the AHL after being less productive than AHL callups like Belzile, Pitlick, Ylonen, and out produced by 4th liners like Pezzetta makes him pout, it will really say a lot about whether he can survive the struggles of the NHL.

Now if he goes to AHL and just lights it up like Caufield/Pacioretty did when they were sent down, it will show he's ready to overcome any challenge. He has to be seeing his fellow countryman and 2nd overall pick Nemec impressing in AHL and hopefully thinking he could do better.

NJ, Seattle and Columbus reacted well with their 1st picks. Nemec and Jiricek had very good seasons at AHL level. and Wright, well, Wright was more at his place at OHL level and in his short period at AHL level. The problem is that SLaf has lived the luxury treatment at NHL level the whole season, injured or not.

It could be a big deal if he doesn't find his footing quickly enough. I have two concerns right now. The first is the plan going forward. What do we expect from him this coming season? What happens if he doesn't meet expectations two years running? The second is contract control. One thing that gets missed in the KK debates is the idea that he shouldn't have been eligible for that offer sheet with correct management.

KK is now progressing normally now under a good coaching staff and quiet environement in Carolina.

 

[NotProkofievian]

KK is now progressing normally now under a good coaching staff and quiet environement in Carolina.

Read: not with us.

 

[nhlfan9191]

The Habs brass did not feel that Slafkovsky was going through the motions, you do.

The Habs brass do not feel that MSL has little or no value added in bringing along players to a better NHL level, you do.

The Habs brass did not have high expectations of Slaf's first season in terms of points . You referencing fans (posters on a forum) instead of clearly dealing with the brass' quotes and stated goals is sleight of hand.

The Habs brass did not feel that Slafkovsky's improvement curve would require him to be in his 40s before he gets anywhere, you do.

And yes, you did question their intelligence, first saying you "questioned the intelligence of HuGo" and now doubling down and calling their logic "staggering".

My point in rebuttal though is that this 'clash' (it's not a debate when one party assumes their conclusions) is not about intelligence. This is because they did not share your judgments, therefore the logical approach was going to be different than yours, and it is not proof one way or the other of whether or not Hugo "lack intelligence".

People who lack intelligence don't find a way to acquire Dach like they did, Matheson like they did or Monahan like they did.

It seems to me you are intentionally skewing every statement to fit an agenda. Of course ONE vet like Anderson is not a reason to play Slaf in the NHL. But that was in fact one example of many. In Montreal, Slaf was slated to also be growing with Suzuki instead of Bourque, Guhle instead of Norlinder, Gallagher instead of Simoneau, Dach instead of Teasdale, and I could give more examples if you wanted.

You’re taking the HuGo intelligent comment way to literal and personal. It was a figure of speech used to highlight that I think the decision to keep Slafkovsky up this year was boneheaded. Not that I think they’re incompetent overall. They can say whatever they want to justify why they weren’t wrong when it came to handling this situation, but nobody, not you, and not HuGo are going to convince me Slaf was fine this year. I’ve been involved in the game to long not to see something that obvious. I didn’t start watching yesterday.

 

[OnTheRun]

It could be a big deal if he doesn't find his footing quickly enough. I have two concerns right now. The first is the plan going forward. What do we expect from him this coming season? What happens if he doesn't meet expectations two years running? The second is contract control. One thing that gets missed in the KK debates is the idea that he shouldn't have been eligible for that offer sheet with correct management.

That's actually pretty fair.
Other than expectations is kind of a black box here, is ours expectations or the Habs expectation? If it's the Habs expectations, what are they exactly? Do we even knows them?

Is it fair to think the Habs are doing what they doing because they have defined goal in mind on their own defined timeline that may not exactly match what the fans are expecting? (It doesn't imply that what they are doing is the right thing to do, just that they have their internal roadmap to handle this.)

 

[River Meadow]

NJ, Seattle and Columbus reacted well with their 1st picks. Nemec and Jiricek had very good seasons at AHL level. and Wright, well, Wright was more at his place at OHL level and in his short period at AHL level. The problem is that SLaf has lived the luxury treatment at NHL level the whole season, injured or not.

Yep.. exactly what we didn't need more of... another entitled af prospect.