CupsOverCash
Registered User
- Jun 16, 2009
- 16,375
- 7,104
Seattle has a chance to have a good team out the bat like Vegas did. It won't be easy to copy that kind of success though. That took some luck.
Speculation: 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft
- Thread starter These Are The Days
- Start date
- Status
Felonious Python
Minor League Degenerate
- Aug 20, 2004
- 30,660
- 8,806
Byrddog
Lifer
- Nov 23, 2007
- 7,479
- 826
The way the expansion draft rules changes when Vegas came in pretty much ensured they had the chance to be competitive. No one thought they could go to the cup finals year one right? The point is they had to move some of the players to address weaker areas particularly the Defense and the goaltending yes they have MAF but had to find a back-up that was competent and ready to step in at the #1 immediately they road MAF hard the first two years and he from age and overuse fell back year two so Lehner was brought in. They experienced the same issues on D Bringing in Pietrangelo this is a temporary thing they have two defensemen younger than 30 right now and a ELC that may or may not make it.
Point is the approach they took was successful for year one a drop in year two and major changes in year two and three including replacing the GM and the head coach. Not a picture of stability for a team that is entering just there 4th year. Im sure Seattle has looked at this and there will be a more balanced approach. They will fill the roster with a mix of veteran players and younger guys. I think Johnsons Seattle ties would be a logical choice for them but there is that contract. If it is Johnson unlike many I do not think it will take a sweetner for them to select him. They are going to have a good list of veteran players to choose from from most every team, when it is there turn to choose from the Bolts they will be looking at need. There are no shortage of mock draft predictions out there The main names are what everyone has been discussing Johnson, Killorn, Gourde I looked at 10 of the mock drafts 5 took Killer, 2 Johnson 2 Gourde and one Palat. So yes we are going to lose a good player.
Felonious Python
Minor League Degenerate
- Aug 20, 2004
- 30,660
- 8,806
Seattle and Vegas can re-sign guys.
If the Kraken take all these guys that have like 4-years left on their deals and the guy stinks, what was the point of that? They've handcuffed themselves to someone that they've got to overcome.
bov
Registered User
- Nov 13, 2010
- 7,186
- 3,299
Assuming we go 4 and 4, Palat seems most likely to go. Possibly Foote if he continues to progress. If it's anyone other than that, it'll be part of a package to protect certain players.
Is Seattle able to select more than one player from an NHL roster? If so, that hurts. Means we're really paying a premium no matter how you slice it.
Is Seattle able to select more than one player from an NHL roster? If so, that hurts. Means we're really paying a premium no matter how you slice it.
Felonious Python
Minor League Degenerate
- Aug 20, 2004
- 30,660
- 8,806
BoltzManConstant
Registered User
Not clear.
The only formal announcement I've seen is this:
Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules same as Golden Knights followed
It says that all first and second year NHL players are ineligible.
But it also says that the rules are same as Vegas. It doesn't describe the Vegas rules, but that time it was that all first and second year **professional** players were ineligible.
I would guess that it's a mistake in the article, and Foote is eligible (unless we use a protection slot on him). I've looked around and haven't been able to find clarification. If anyone has a source, I'd love to see it.
In any case, I'd bet dollars to donuts that we make a deal with Seattle for them to take either Johnson or McDonagh. The former with a sweetener coming from us, the latter with possibly something changing hands but I'm not sure which direction.
CupInSIX
My cap runneth over
If there's one thing Vegas should not be concerned about it's their defensemen under 30.
- Jun 17, 2009
- 10,187
- 6,222
Foote is eligible because of his time in the AHL.
We're going to have to decide between one of Palat/Killorn/Foote to protect with our 8th slot since we're likely protecting 4D.
Johnson getting picked up through expansion feels like a pipe dream given who Seattle will be able to pick from. There is still a possibility that we trade him there and dump an asset to do it though. But it feels likely that we lose one of Killorn/Foote/Palat to expansion.
The Macho King
Back* to Back** World Champion
- Jun 22, 2011
- 48,760
- 29,266
Byrddog
Lifer
- Nov 23, 2007
- 7,479
- 826
We all know in the moment GM's make a decisions that impact both team performance in the short term and the long term. Movement clauses, Salary Term or just poor judgment of talent. Or any combination of the three. Take a look at Mark Stone 28 years old signed for 6 more years at 9.5 or Pietrangelo age 31 signed for 6 more years at 8.8 and a NMC on both at 37 heck at 34 there in a pickel and with Stone his peak is now and he will start to regress and by 23 or 24 he will be a 30 point guy. Where do I get this is from the league average of players decline there is all kinds of data that has been kept from 1917 to the present. Both these guys were shiney toys that got over on the GM's for there last contract because the team mistakes in the expansion draft. There core is now set Stone, Pacioretty, Karlson, Pietrangelo, Theodore and Lehner. For a win now the team was not put together correctly from the start. Ask yourself if Yzer would have made those choices? Look how he built this team and what he is doing to rebuild a pitiful Detroit team. Now if the Kraken make the same mistakes that Vegas did for inital success they will face the same decisions Vegas has in a couple years Vegas will be a bubble team for the playoffs.
Every team MUST be concerned about a segment of the team that is aging out especially when two of the younger guys are career 3rd pair tops Hague and Whitecloud are not top four guys Theodore yes he can play there but Martinez and Holden both 33 are about done. All the picks Vegas had in the inital year are all but gone from the system as well most of the forwards in the system have two years left on there ELC removed from the expansion draft by two years. They do align with the decline in the main roster but like all teams there will be one maybe two of those guys that will be able to play a significant role down the road. The defense has 3 guys not one of them drafted before the 3rd round so the aging defense is a significant problem for them. The honeymoon for Vegas will be over if not this season for sure within two. And typically teams like that go out and overpay aging out players usually with term. Another example look at Nashville Once the best D in the league they have traded off pieces Weber, Jones and now are out of the top 10 Rinne a Vezna winner a few years ago has aged out and there Plan was Saro's who is failing miserably then look to the forwards Got Johansen for Jones paid him absurd money and term to be the 1C and the guy is floundering. Paid Matt Duchene I guess to sing Karoke down on Broadway because he is failing on the ice. The Golden boy Forsberg scored 30 goals the first two years but has not repeated that since. They are a one line team that is at the bottom 1/4 of the league scoring and goals against PK and PP. They have no ability to move Johansen or Duchene look at those contracts then return to Johnsons you will not feel so bad about Johnsons game. There are contracts like that all over the league. One has to ask yourself why? My belief is that there are not enough impact players in the league forcing GM's to make shitty decisions. The league should not be expanding at this point a contraction of probably 4 teams would be better for the game. Because a city can put butts in seats should not be the reason to expand the number of teams. Betteman is a pure bean counter though and only sees the dollars pumped into the league. The salary Cap has prevented teams like Detroit the Rangers the Leafs and a few others from using money as a weapon to year in year out buy the best talent no matter the cost. On the other hand it has spread out that same talent creating a bidding war in $ and term which causes bloated contracts on the backend and has hurt the game. I live in the Nashville area and I had season tickets there from 1998 to 2013 I saw that team struggle to get its feet the first 5 years I saw Shea Weber as a rookie have one of his signed sticks from practice he has been one of my favorites but his contract due to that offersheet continues to cripple that team. I watched the Habs yesterday or the day before I can't remember but Shea Weber is about done he skates like he is in mud now much of the time, While his size and hockey IQ has kept him going just like Chara he is about aged out. His recap penalty will crush Nashville in the next year or two along with the bloated center contracts there will be a sell off.
Now that was a wordy lengthy dissertation to point out the makeup of a team matters. And though initially competitive Vegas had to shuck and move to extend there window. Windows are the result of the CAP now and the depleted talent pool pushes GM's into shitty decisions. The Bolts have not been exempt from that How long has it taken to build this blueline? How many pylons have we edured until Heddy matured, Sergi, matured, Cernak matured now we wait for Foote. I can not express how lucky we have been to get Mac signed even though his contract is going to be pretty bad the last couple years the benefit is now and last year. Last year we had a windfall of Shatty who I dispise but he made a impact then we get BOGO who for some reason had the best stretch of hockey in his career while here. By no means do I pretend to be a GM but long term my observations have proven right because I have paid attention to the overall picture in the league for more than 40 years. Played the game as a youth coached the game as a adult and now just watch 4 or 5 games a day as a retired old fart.
The Macho King
Back* to Back** World Champion
- Jun 22, 2011
- 48,760
- 29,266
I ain't reading all that nonsense.
BoltzManConstant
Registered User
What's your source? I agree it's likely that Foote and guys with AHL time are eligible, but that conflicts with the story I linked from NHL.com.
Don't be silly about moving Johnson. Johnson + sweetener as Seattle's pick isn't a "pipe dream".
It's likely that Seattle's options will be Killorn, McDonagh, Foote, a youngster (Joseph, ABB, etc) or Johnson+sweetener. TJ's a little bit of a reclamation project at this point, but getting a Cup-winning vet who's a hometown guy and is only 31 and is still good for 40+ / season (even after he's dropped off), plus some futures to go along with him, is compelling for a franchise starting from scratch.
Sky04
Registered User
- Jan 8, 2009
- 29,070
- 18,151
Don't know why it says "NHL player" unless that means anyone with an NHL contract in general, but 3rd year ELC/professional players are eligable. Only 1st and 2nd years are excempt.
How the Canadiens would approach the Kraken expansion draft right now
- Jun 17, 2009
- 10,187
- 6,222
The NHL.com article is poorly worded, but I don't think it was intended to recite the rules verbatim.
From Cap Friendly
The compensation Seattle will require will have to not only be worth taking on Johnson's contract, but also make up for the opportunity cost of not getting one of Killorn/Palat/Foote. That is going to be steep, and I don't think our picks are going to be that enticing for Seattle. It depends on what direction they want to go in.
I think its more likely they take one of those players and then we give them Johnson with an asset in a separate trade.
Last edited:
From a protection standpoint this comes down to McDonough vs Palat for the Lightning.
Not an easy call
Not an easy call
Maybe McDonough would waive his NTC rather than being exposed to an expansion team. It would be nice to get an asset back rather than giving him away. He will be 32 next year with 5 years remaining. Tough call, but we got him for many years in his prime. Maybe with the assets we could get for McDonough, they could be given to Seattle to take Johnson. Need to resign Goodrow. I wouldn't be surprised if Coleman may want to move on to play a top 6 spot.
Felonious Python
Minor League Degenerate
- Aug 20, 2004
- 30,660
- 8,806
If I were Seattle's GM, I'd want guys that were enthusiastic about coming to the team. (think MAF with Vegas)
If there's a Lightning player that really wants to be taken, that may be the difference maker, because his heart will be in it.
No way anyone is re-signing UFAs until this is all over. McBackup might be an exception since a goalie needs to be exposed.
If there's a Lightning player that really wants to be taken, that may be the difference maker, because his heart will be in it.
No way anyone is re-signing UFAs until this is all over. McBackup might be an exception since a goalie needs to be exposed.
Last edited:
BoltzManConstant
Registered User
Yeah, again I think CapFriendly is guessing right on how this works, but they don't cite a source. If anyone has seen anything where the NHL actually confirms the rules, I'd appreciate it.
I don't think Killer or Foote is that much more enticing than Johnson. And probably ot more enticing than Johnson and a first. Bear in mind that Seattle has much better use for Johnson than we do -- a proven scorer with a local connection. Killer's just not that much better than TJ. And a D prospect whose main appeal is that he's cheap isn't as enticing to a team that's not cap-constrained like we are.
I'd put it at about a 50% chance they want McDonagh, 30% chance they want TJ+goodies, and a 20% chance something else interesting happens.
Sky04
Registered User
- Jan 8, 2009
- 29,070
- 18,151
The rules are the same as the Vegas draft and all first and second year pros were excempt in that draft.
Koekkoek was exposed while on his 3rd year of elc.
BoltzManConstant
Registered User
That could be -- I guess a two-way contract is technically an NHL contract, and so maybe you could stretch that to say someone on one is an "NHL player".
Again, I think it's just a typo or sloppy, given that the headline says the rules are the same as for Vegas.
But for whatever reason, they used different language when talking about Vegas. A similar article back then said:
"* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits)."
- Expansion Draft: Full Rules
This time it's:
"* All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits."
Although as I look at that, I notice they missed the closing parenthesis, so precision isn't really their thing.
BoltzManConstant
Registered User
When it comes to the forwards I don't think it's an easy decision for Seattle between Palat, Killorn and Johnson or even Gourde. Over the past 3 seasons most points order is Killorn, Gourde, Johnson then Palat. P/gp is Killorn, Palat, Johnson then Gourde. I can keep going but it's kinda interchangeable in most categories with the bottom 3 but Killorn is at the top on most.
The thing that may sway Seattle is the thing that people seem to be the current biggest issue and that's contract term. I think Johnson and Gourde having more term may help them more. Palat with just one year left could be a James Neal type where he was good for Vegas but he left after a year so they didn't get much long term for him but had a good one year. Palat will he 31 as a UFA so they may not want to pay him big money and he may Cup chase too. Killorn has two years so a better option to me. Johnson and Gourde with 3 and 4 years can be anchors for that team the first few seasons.
When it comes to D if we expose McDonagh I think they take him because he's the best asset they will get. I just don't know if he would want to be there so it would be more a pick to flip type which could net them many good futures. So I think we have to make a deal where they don't pick McDonagh but not a deal to where they take Johnson. Let them take whichever forward, we prefer Johnson or Gourde, but we can still trade any of them except Gourde cause he still has a full NTC but we can ask to waive if needed. I see 2 of the 4 gone definitely possibly 3 of them.
The thing that may sway Seattle is the thing that people seem to be the current biggest issue and that's contract term. I think Johnson and Gourde having more term may help them more. Palat with just one year left could be a James Neal type where he was good for Vegas but he left after a year so they didn't get much long term for him but had a good one year. Palat will he 31 as a UFA so they may not want to pay him big money and he may Cup chase too. Killorn has two years so a better option to me. Johnson and Gourde with 3 and 4 years can be anchors for that team the first few seasons.
When it comes to D if we expose McDonagh I think they take him because he's the best asset they will get. I just don't know if he would want to be there so it would be more a pick to flip type which could net them many good futures. So I think we have to make a deal where they don't pick McDonagh but not a deal to where they take Johnson. Let them take whichever forward, we prefer Johnson or Gourde, but we can still trade any of them except Gourde cause he still has a full NTC but we can ask to waive if needed. I see 2 of the 4 gone definitely possibly 3 of them.
JTBF81
Registered User
If Tampa protects 8+1 and is willing to expose McDonagh, then they could possibly get away with only losing McD and probably Johnson to the draft/trade. I guess it's how much is JBB already looking 2-3 years down the road and the new contracts of Point and the 3 main rfa's. Since McD looks to still be playing great and F depth/scoring hasn't really been an issue, they likely protect McDonagh and hopefully convince Seattle to take one of TJ/Killorn and then move the other. Coleman likely gets priced out unfortunately, but I could see Tampa re-signing Goodrow and running something similar to this next year:
Palat-Point-Kuch
Joseph-Cirelli-Stamkos
Volkov/ABB-Gourde-Goodrow
Maroon-Stephens-Volkov/ABB
Or if McDonagh is lost, the F core could possibly look like this year minus TJ plus Kuch, as there may be enough room to keep both Coleman and Goodrow in this scenario. Then they could move Serg to 2LD and either give Borgman the 3LD spot or sign a cheap vet like Demers. Since McD I believe can play at a high level for at least 2 or 3 more seasons maybe they value keeping the defense stronger, but I could see them willing to work with Seattle to take him to save cap.
- Status
