Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Prospects - part II

[StevenToddIves]

Been watching a bit of Carson Lambos lately. Let's just say that me and Steve Kournianos feel quite similarly about him.

I've been meaning to finish up a top 32 ranking. He will probably be my most controversial ranking on that list.

Lambos' upside is just tremendous. But there's a lot of projection here, as well. He's be a great selection for the Devils at #20, but someone will love his upside enough to draft him higher -- his talent ceiling is in the Hughes/Clarke range, ahead of Power/Edvinsson/Svozil/Ceulemans.

 

[StevenToddIves]

So I often read here that there are 3 big time D prospects in this draft.

So I find it encouraging that Button has a 4th. Have to figure at least one or two fwd's go somewhere in the mix, so I think even at 6, one of these guys would be available.

What's the board's knock on Edvinnson?

Lacks offensive upside and he's never produced big offensive numbers. You're drafting him to be a shut down D who can also be great on the transition, but he's erratic defensively and can turn the puck over in transition. He's certainly a first round candidate -- great size/speed combo with terrific hands and a very good compete level. But the hockey IQ and passing and shooting are not even in the same stratosphere as Power, much less Hughes and Clarke.

So, it was me who came up with the "Big 3 D" moniker which many people have appropriated on these boards. My 4th ranked D is not Edvinsson, but rather Stanislav Svozil, who is far better defensively right now and has similar offensive upside. Edvinsson is my #5 D, followed closely by Lambos, Ceulemans and Heimosalmi. I like all of these players, but if someone can explain to me how Edvinsson is worth picking over Brandt Clarke -- who was clearly several tiers superior in every facet of the game except physicality in their two head-to-head U-18 match-ups this past month -- I'm all ears.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Offensive upside, but I think they said the same about Heskinan and see how that worked out.

So who knows?

Heiskanen was more comparable to Sanderson (drafted last year) in that they both showed a level of offensive ability which was tempered by an overt concentration on defensive responsibility. Both of these players were stunningly good defenders in their draft eligible seasons, far better in that respect than anyone in the 2021 class, and only Owen Power would really be close.

 

[Guttersniped]

Oof, just found that mock now. Last year my final mock turned out halfway decent (13 picks correct, 28 of my 31 were taken in the first round). For my own ego, I looked up a bunch of final mock drafts from various professional journalists. Although admittedly I was way off with the Devils picks

NHL Mock Draft: Who gets selected after Alexis Lafreniere?

Ryan Wagman, the author of that NBCSN/McKeen's article, was on the low end of "accuracy" as he managed to get 3 picks right (Lafreniere/Sanderson/Drysdale) and 26/31. He had us taking Askarov last year, so at least he's consistent? But yeah....he's not exactly somebody I would put a ton of confidence in with regards to mock drafting.

His 2020 mock has a flaw that actually reminds me of a discussion I had with @StevenToddIves about defensemen in the 1st round. After the big two (Sanderson and Drysdale), this dude’s mock has only two more defensemen in his 1st round, Schneider and Guhle.

While that draft top ~30 was forward heavy, and Schneider and Guhle were the only other consensus higher ranked defensemen, no drafts have only had four defensemen go in the 1st round. 2015 only had 5 defensemen in the 1st round, but that class is a weird exception and hard to imagine that low number being matched much less beaten.

And it wasn’t in 2020. We drafted Muk at 20 and Colorado drafted Justin Barron at 25. And that was a pretty bad mock draft because it only has the obvious four defensemen in it, to me. Not bothering to try to guess who would draft a defenseman is a worse mistake than picking the wrong specific players.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Is this a young d-man playing pro in europe thing?

Playing across three levels in the Swedish juniors (14 games), Allsvenskan (14 games) and SHL (10 games), Edvinsson totaled -- in 38 total games -- 1 goal and 11 assists. In lower levels, Edvinsson's offensive numbers were good, but not dominant. In the recent U-18 tourney he had 1 goal and 3 assists for 4 points in 7 games -- solid numbers, good for a tie for 12th among U-18 defensemen.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Heiskanen was more comparable to Sanderson (drafted last year) in that they both showed a level of offensive ability which was tempered by an overt concentration on defensive responsibility. Both of these players were stunningly good defenders in their draft eligible seasons, far better in that respect than anyone in the 2021 class, and only Owen Power would really be close.

I have been seeing a lot of downplaying Power in other threads.

Why are so many lists putting him ahead of both Clarke and Hughes? Even your list has him ahead of at least Hughes last I saw.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

What's the board's knock on Edvinnson?

For me, not enough upside to offset how raw he looks, especially at #4 or #5 (where we're likely picking).

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Offensive upside, but I think they said the same about Heskinan and see how that worked out.

So who knows?

Completely different situation. Heiskanen looked ridiculously mature. Edvinsson looks like a child in a mans body and super awkward on the ice.

 

[aboriginal]

Watch edvinsson be the best dman of the top dudes. Ok prob not.

 

[Auto Pilot]

Edvidson is the biggest boom bust in the draft. If he does boom he’ll be one of the top players in the draft, but watch shift by shift videos of him, he’s raw as hell and makes some head scratching decisions.

If Severson sets this fanbase off, this kids decisions will give you a stroke nightly

 

[aboriginal]

Define “stroke nightly”.....

 

[Guttersniped]

I have been seeing a lot of downplaying Power in other threads.

Why are so many lists putting him ahead of both Clarke and Hughes? Even your list has him ahead of at least Hughes last I saw.

Power is generally considered the presumptive number one defenseman. Maybe because he doesn’t matter if we don’t win the lottery? Hughes was heating up but I think his foot injury killed his shot for 1st and maybe dropped him a few spots and Clarke is real possibility where we may draft.

Here’s a new consolidated ranking from May 12nd, which admittedly 1) actually has different order from another consolidated ranking I’ve seen, but the same top 10 2) the ads on this site are headache BUT it has Power as the 1st defenseman, as did the other consolidated ranking (which had Power 1st, while this has Beniers 1st)

TWC’s 2021 Consolidated NHL Draft Rankings

 

[Figgie]

I am pretty sure we are going to take Luke if he is on board when we pick despite who else is available and I would be happy with him.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I have been seeing a lot of downplaying Power in other threads.

Why are so many lists putting him ahead of both Clarke and Hughes? Even your list has him ahead of at least Hughes last I saw.

No one's really gotten on me to debate Power, I think because no one realistically thinks he'll be available anymore by the time the Devils pick. But thanks for bringing it up -- because if the Devils win the #1 or #2 overall lottery slot, I feel that Power becomes the team's most likely selection.

Owen Power is, quite simply, a nearly 6'6 defenseman who skates with the speed and agility of a proficient 5'11 skater, plays very good defense while being a one-man mis-match for the opposition, and shows strong acuity in every offensive respect.

Defensively, no one is confusing him with the best shut-down defenders to come out of the draft in the past decade, he's just not that polished yet, but his potential here is simply enormous. One of the reasons why people love 6'4-and-over defensive presences who can skate is simply because of the amount of ice they cover. Simply by being on the rink, spreading out their arms and possessing strong 4-way mobility gives the illusion that they are clogging half of a North American hockey rink -- the amount of passing and shooting lanes they obscure is intimidating. This is one reason why teams want to draft the Moritz Seiders and Owen Powers and Simon Edvinssons -- this singular trait gives raises their talent floors to pretty much a successful NHL level. Power is also not a lanky kid growing into his body -- he already has man strength and is virtually impossible to beat in the crease and the corners -- even for NCAA forwards who averaged about 3 years older than he is. Imagining Power when he fills out his body at 21 or 22 to the 6'6-230 range is just ridiculous -- he's going to be a one-man cycle-busting machine. Think Colton Parayko, except once Power blasts two opposing forwards out of the way and gets the puck, his puck skills -- puckhandling and passing -- are far, far stronger than Parayko's at the same age.

Though Power's gap control and positioning is not at the ridiculously advanced level of, say Jake Sanderson last year, Power's strong backwards skating and edges combined with a ridiculous reach and terrific dexterity for his size will make him a near impossibility for opposing forwards to beat him either outside or inside on the rush. Ultimately, it's easy to imagine Power as a true, classic shut-down defender at the NHL level.

Offensively, no one is confusing Power with Luke Hughes or Brandt Clarke. I don't think we're going to see him blow past four defenders on an end-to-end rush like Hughes or dangle around two players in a seeming "just dump in the puck" situation at the blueline and then sauce a pass through two defenders onto a teammates stick for a primary assist like Clarke. But Power's offensive game is -- without a doubt -- a significant strength. His passing game is actually excellent without being exceptionally creative -- he's an efficient and precise passer who generally makes very smart puck decisions. His outlet passing is something we can safely call very, very good without being exceptional like a Clarke or Hughes.

If we're comparing Power's offensive abilities to the players in this draft who are generally considered to be the elite in this draft class -- Hughes and Clarke -- he's always going to fall just shy, but there's nothing wrong with that; the reason is because he's better both offensively and defensively than any of the D in the 2021 class you're drafting to be a shut down guy. We all know what a huge Svozil fan I am -- ranking him at #14 overall -- but Power's physical edge combined with equivalent skating and make him the superior defensive prospect. Edvinsson is an excellent shut-down D prospect often ranked very highly as well, but Power is more efficient and economical in his defensive play than Edvinsson, far stronger, a superior passer and far-less mistake prone in his puck decisions and execution.

Power also has greater offensive upside than Svozil or Edvinsson. He possesses a superior shot to the duo, and his passing is excellent. Though his puck-handling skills might be third of the three under close examination, Power is an expert at using his body to shield the puck while using his long reach to keep the puck out of reach and defenders at bay -- this one move makes him very strong on the puck, a la Jaromir Jagr but on the defensive end. Now I'm not comparing Power's hands to Jagr, of course, I'm just saying this singular move, when done so well, is an impossible move to defend -- Jagr is 49 and this move still works for him down low in the Czech men's league.

So, Owen Power is a stunningly good NHL prospect at D, a potential franchise player if he puts it all together. Because huge defenders generally peak later age-wise -- see Chara, Parayko, Byfuglien etc. -- and as Power fills out and strengthens his skating, he can just be an absolute beast at the professional level.

I have Power ranked #3 overall, behind only Matt Beniers and Brandt Clarke. Luke Hughes I have third among the defenders at #6, but I never question Hughes' tremendous potential -- it's just Hughes has more question marks as the youngest and rawest of the three, having missed much of his draft-eligible season due to injury. When drafting in the top 5, you don't want to be using the word "if" or "but" when describing the player, you want more certainty. I feel Power offers this -- his worst-case scenario is pretty much in the Colton Parayko area, and his best case scenario is in the prime-era Dustin Byfuglien neighborhood. These are rare and coveted players. I feel one day soon Owen Power will also be a rare and coveted player, and most in the 2021 draft consensus would emphatically agree.

 

[Blackjack]

I have Power ranked #3 overall, behind only Matt Beniers and Brandt Clarke. Luke Hughes I have third among the defenders at #6, but I never question Hughes' tremendous potential -- it's just Hughes has more question marks as the youngest and rawest of the three, having missed much of his draft-eligible season due to injury. When drafting in the top 5, you don't want to be using the word "if" or "but" when describing the player, you want more certainty. I feel Power offers this -- his worst-case scenario is pretty much in the Colton Parayko area, and his best case scenario is in the prime-era Dustin Byfuglien neighborhood. These are rare and coveted players. I feel one day soon Owen Power will also be a rare and coveted player, and most in the 2021 draft consensus would emphatically agree.

If I can ask you to take off your "player evaluation" cap and put on your "organizational tendencies" cap for a moment, do you think Jack's comments will influence what Fitz does in the draft?

Before Jack's comments I was pretty certain that Fitz would stick to the board and draft the guy they wanted, be it Luke or anyone else. But I wonder if those comments do change things. Fitz is absolutely effusive in his praise for Jack, and never hesitates to place him as the centerpiece of the rebuild. It would just feel strange to do all that and then ignore it when he very unambiguously states that he wants you to draft his brother if you have the chance.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Completely different situation. Heiskanen looked ridiculously mature. Edvinsson looks like a child in a mans body and super awkward on the ice.

In Miro Heiskanen's draft year, he played in the Finnish men's league -- quite proficiently -- for the entire season and totaled 5 goals and 5 assists for 10 points in 37 games. His critics felt he was not offensively proficient, but his backers saw him as a kid playing in a men's league who played a very responsible style of D and did not take offensive chances unless it was absolutely necessary or the risk was diminished. In the U-18 tournament against players his own age, he dominated for 2 goals, 10 assists and 12 points in 7 games. Heiskanen was also well-known for his bomb of a shot from the point.

Heiskanen's closest comparable since his own draft year (2017) was Jake Sanderson last year. Sanderson is a superior skater to a similarly-aged Heiskanen, but lacks the bomb of a shot. But Sanderson was also a kid who displayed strong offensive capabilities which were tempered by a low-risk style and attention to defensive detail which superseded his offensive statistics. In his draft year, Sanderson played at a lower level than Heiskanen, but put up pretty good numbers vs. USHL and NCAA teams -- in 56 games, he totaled 9 goals and 34 assists for 43 points. He did not get to play in the U-18 because it was cancelled.

Edvinsson also played across multiple levels in his draft-eligible year, across the Swedish Jr. league (lower level than USHL), Allvenskan (lower level than Finnish pros or NCAA but higher than USHL) and Swedish men's league (higher even than Finnish men's league). In 38 games, Edvinsson totaled 1 goal and 11 assists for 12 points, despite being generally an offensive-minded defenseman who takes risks and loves to rush the puck. In the U-18, Edvinsson had 1 goal and 3 assists in 7 games, solid number but not even in Heiskanen's league. Edvinsson is a pretty good passer, but not on the level of Heiskanen and Sanderson. Edvinsson does not have much of a shot, he's far and away third of the three. His skating is perhaps his foremost strength, but it would be a stretch to say he's as good as Heiskanen or Sanderson. The one area I'd give Edvinsson is puckhandling, Edvinsson can really dangle the disc.

Again, Edvinsson is an excellent prospect for the 2021 draft. He is a strong bet to be a successful NHL defenseman. But ranking him in the top 3 over a Clarke or Power; or comparing him to players like Heiskanen is wildly off the mark. He does not have that type of upside, offensively or defensively. My problem with Edvinsson is not Edvinsson, whom I feel strongly about as a player. My problem is that he's been projected by certain draft analysts as a cerebral player with big-time offensive capability, neither of which he has displayed on the ice at any level. Though Edvinsson's excellent transition game can certainly see him approach the 40-point plateau, the idea that his NHL scoring stats can match even a conservative estimate for Brandt Clarke or Luke Hughes is a tremendous leap of faith with no existing evidence to support it. Miro Heiskanen has yet to even hit 40 points -- his projection in an 82-game season this year would have been 38 or 39 -- and Heiskanen was far superior offensively in his draft eligible campaign. These are not "assumptions", it's borderline irrefutable based on the numbers.

 

[devilsblood]

A couple months ago I asked why Clarke went the USHL route.

But why did Clarke go the Slovakian route? Why not Liga, or SweHL?

Was it intentional to go to a little less competive pro league? Similar maybe to Matthews going the Swiss route a few year back.

 

[aboriginal]

No one's really gotten on me to debate Power, I think because no one realistically thinks he'll be available anymore by the time the Devils pick. But thanks for bringing it up -- because if the Devils win the #1 or #2 overall lottery slot, I feel that Power becomes the team's most likely selection.

Owen Power is, quite simply, a nearly 6'6 defenseman who skates with the speed and agility of a proficient 5'11 skater, plays very good defense while being a one-man mis-match for the opposition, and shows strong acuity in every offensive respect.

Defensively, no one is confusing him with the best shut-down defenders to come out of the draft in the past decade, he's just not that polished yet, but his potential here is simply enormous. One of the reasons why people love 6'4-and-over defensive presences who can skate is simply because of the amount of ice they cover. Simply by being on the rink, spreading out their arms and possessing strong 4-way mobility gives the illusion that they are clogging half of a North American hockey rink -- the amount of passing and shooting lanes they obscure is intimidating. This is one reason why teams want to draft the Moritz Seiders and Owen Powers and Simon Edvinssons -- this singular trait gives raises their talent floors to pretty much a successful NHL level. Power is also not a lanky kid growing into his body -- he already has man strength and is virtually impossible to beat in the crease and the corners -- even for NCAA forwards who averaged about 3 years older than he is. Imagining Power when he fills out his body at 21 or 22 to the 6'6-230 range is just ridiculous -- he's going to be a one-man cycle-busting machine. Think Colton Parayko, except once Power blasts two opposing forwards out of the way and gets the puck, his puck skills -- puckhandling and passing -- are far, far stronger than Parayko's at the same age.

Though Power's gap control and positioning is not at the ridiculously advanced level of, say Jake Sanderson last year, Power's strong backwards skating and edges combined with a ridiculous reach and terrific dexterity for his size will make him a near impossibility for opposing forwards to beat him either outside or inside on the rush. Ultimately, it's easy to imagine Power as a true, classic shut-down defender at the NHL level.

Offensively, no one is confusing Power with Luke Hughes or Brandt Clarke. I don't think we're going to see him blow past four defenders on an end-to-end rush like Hughes or dangle around two players in a seeming "just dump in the puck" situation at the blueline and then sauce a pass through two defenders onto a teammates stick for a primary assist like Clarke. But Power's offensive game is -- without a doubt -- a significant strength. His passing game is actually excellent without being exceptionally creative -- he's an efficient and precise passer who generally makes very smart puck decisions. His outlet passing is something we can safely call very, very good without being exceptional like a Clarke or Hughes.

If we're comparing Power's offensive abilities to the players in this draft who are generally considered to be the elite in this draft class -- Hughes and Clarke -- he's always going to fall just shy, but there's nothing wrong with that; the reason is because he's better both offensively and defensively than any of the D in the 2021 class you're drafting to be a shut down guy. We all know what a huge Svozil fan I am -- ranking him at #14 overall -- but Power's physical edge combined with equivalent skating and make him the superior defensive prospect. Edvinsson is an excellent shut-down D prospect often ranked very highly as well, but Power is more efficient and economical in his defensive play than Edvinsson, far stronger, a superior passer and far-less mistake prone in his puck decisions and execution.

Power also has greater offensive upside than Svozil or Edvinsson. He possesses a superior shot to the duo, and his passing is excellent. Though his puck-handling skills might be third of the three under close examination, Power is an expert at using his body to shield the puck while using his long reach to keep the puck out of reach and defenders at bay -- this one move makes him very strong on the puck, a la Jaromir Jagr but on the defensive end. Now I'm not comparing Power's hands to Jagr, of course, I'm just saying this singular move, when done so well, is an impossible move to defend -- Jagr is 49 and this move still works for him down low in the Czech men's league.

So, Owen Power is a stunningly good NHL prospect at D, a potential franchise player if he puts it all together. Because huge defenders generally peak later age-wise -- see Chara, Parayko, Byfuglien etc. -- and as Power fills out and strengthens his skating, he can just be an absolute beast at the professional level.

I have Power ranked #3 overall, behind only Matt Beniers and Brandt Clarke. Luke Hughes I have third among the defenders at #6, but I never question Hughes' tremendous potential -- it's just Hughes has more question marks as the youngest and rawest of the three, having missed much of his draft-eligible season due to injury. When drafting in the top 5, you don't want to be using the word "if" or "but" when describing the player, you want more certainty. I feel Power offers this -- his worst-case scenario is pretty much in the Colton Parayko area, and his best case scenario is in the prime-era Dustin Byfuglien neighborhood. These are rare and coveted players. I feel one day soon Owen Power will also be a rare and coveted player, and most in the 2021 draft consensus would emphatically agree.

yes but could you be more thorough?

 

[Blackjack]

A couple months ago I asked why Clarke went the USHL route.

But why did Clarke go the Slovakian route? Why not Liga, or SweHL?

Was it intentional to go to a little less competive pro league? Similar maybe to Matthews going the Swiss route a few year back.

If I remember correctly, a lot of these guys were going wherever they could to play. A lot of European leagues were wary of signing North American players because they assumed (correctly) that they would lose them the moment that the leagues started back up.

There was a piece written about Clarke's decision to play in Czech, and the piece said that he was basically lucky that his agent was connected to the right people and was able to get him a spot at all.

 

[StevenToddIves]

yes but could you be more thorough?

Haha, sorry I can run off sometimes. I know. My bad.

But I want people to have a deeper understanding of prospects like Power. I feel people like to go for easy descriptions and off-mark comparables, because it's easier than really taking a deep dive into a player's nuances.

Power is not just a "big defensive defenseman". He's a very unique and interesting player. I'm fine with someone debating him vs. another great young defenseman, but I get a bit up-tight when I see paid hockey writers say something banal like "he doesn't score enough" and rank him 5th.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Edvidson is the biggest boom bust in the draft. If he does boom he’ll be one of the top players in the draft, but watch shift by shift videos of him, he’s raw as hell and makes some head scratching decisions.

If Severson sets this fanbase off, this kids decisions will give you a stroke nightly

I don't think Edvinsson can bust. I feel he'll be a very good transitional defender who is very good in the defensive zone as well. I think the question with him is if he's a 15-20 point guy who occasionally makes bad puck decisions, or if he cleans up the mistakes to become a true NHL shut-down guy and becomes a 30-40 point guy.

 

[aboriginal]

Haha, sorry I can run off sometimes. I know. My bad.

But I want people to have a deeper understanding of prospects like Power. I feel people like to go for easy descriptions and off-mark comparables, because it's easier than really taking a deep dive into a player's nuances.

Power is not just a "big defensive defenseman". He's a very unique and interesting player. I'm fine with someone debating him vs. another great young defenseman, but I get a bit up-tight when I see paid hockey writers say something banal like "he doesn't score enough" and rank him 5th.

your draft/scouting reports are a reason I’ve come back over temporarily . So please, do ramble on a little.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If I can ask you to take off your "player evaluation" cap and put on your "organizational tendencies" cap for a moment, do you think Jack's comments will influence what Fitz does in the draft?

Before Jack's comments I was pretty certain that Fitz would stick to the board and draft the guy they wanted, be it Luke or anyone else. But I wonder if those comments do change things. Fitz is absolutely effusive in his praise for Jack, and never hesitates to place him as the centerpiece of the rebuild. It would just feel strange to do all that and then ignore it when he very unambiguously states that he wants you to draft his brother if you have the chance.

I feel the Devils best case scenario is Luke Hughes is off the board when they pick but Brandt Clarke is still on it. Because the Devils will be under a lot of pressure to take Hughes if he's out there. However, if Clarke and Power are gone, it's a no brainer to take Hughes, so that would settle that.

It probably helps that Brandt Clarke's brother is also in the Devils organization, and from everything I've heard Jack Hughes and Graeme Clarke are friendly. So I think Jack Hughes is smart enough to understand this and not throw a tantrum because things aren't going how he would like.

 

[devilsblood]

Just looking at the USNDP's roster and noticed that they have 4 kids from Ca, 3 kids who hail from Florida, 3 other kids from AZ(2 from Scottsdale). Plus a kid from Va. Not to mention 3 kids from NJ.

This is the long roster so there are 50 or 60 guys on the roster, but definitely a sign of the times to see so many kids from non traditional hockey states.

 

[Nubmer6]

I feel the Devils best case scenario is Luke Hughes is off the board when they pick but Brandt Clarke is still on it. Because the Devils will be under a lot of pressure to take Hughes if he's out there. However, if Clarke and Power are gone, it's a no brainer to take Hughes, so that would settle that.

It probably helps that Brandt Clarke's brother is also in the Devils organization, and from everything I've heard Jack Hughes and Graeme Clarke are friendly. So I think Jack Hughes is smart enough to understand this and not throw a tantrum because things aren't going how he would like.

Well Jack and Graeme were teammates at one point, so while id expect Hughes to be disappointed, I'd also expect him to be happy for Clarke.