Prospect Info: 2021 Leafs Board Prospect Rankings #3

[Guided by Veseys]

I was rereading some old prospect threads the other day. I remember when the overwhelming consensus was that the Goat’s floor was Martin Hanzal and his ceiling was Jordan Stall. Good times.
Voted Amirov here but I think the only surefire nhl regular out of the top 4 is just Sandin. Hoping Matt Knies pans out as well.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Amirov. No idea why so many are high on Liljegren, going into his D+5 season now and been almost exclusively an AHL player. That's not good no matter the optics, and it's not like defense has been a bunch of world beaters either.

Well he was in the AHL from a very young age, much younger than typical, and has excelled there. He has top 4 upside and has proven more than everyone but Sandin in the upper tier of the prospect group.

Just because he isn't new and shiny doesn't mean he's a not good prospect. IMO a fairer assessment is that he really has nothing left to prove in the AHL. This is his season to solidify himself as a NHL defender. If he can't, there's definite reason to be sceptical on his future.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

I was rereading some old prospect threads the other day. I remember when the overwhelming consensus was that the Goat’s floor was Martin Hanzal and his ceiling was Jordan Stall. Good times.
Voted Amirov here but I think the only surefire nhl regular out of the top 4 is just Sandin. Hoping Matt Knies pans out as well.

Goat did an interview where he said he doesn't really like hockey. He does it because he's kinda good at it and it pays well. He didn't have the drive to better himself, but if he would have, it's quite possible that's what his career could have looked like, if not better

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Voted Amirov but I have zero complaints about a Lil Grin vote, I love his game.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Amirov. No idea why so many are high on Liljegren, going into his D+5 season now and been almost exclusively an AHL player. That's not good no matter the optics, and it's not like defense has been a bunch of world beaters either.

There is a difference between stagnating and continously getting better though.

At ages 18,19, and 20 he had some of the best seasons ever for a player his age in the AHL despite limited PP time.

His age 20 season was better offensively than guys like Subban/Barrie/Ellis/DeAngelo and similar to Shea Theodore while being better defensively as well.

Last year in his two games he was excellent 5 on 5 and much better than the 11 the previous season.

He's an excellent prospect and should only be a matter of time before he bumps Holl down in the lineup.

 

[TheDoldrums]

This is clearly Amirov for me, I think he has all the tools to be a 1st line winger someday.

All I'll say about Liljegren is I feel the organization is not nearly as high on him as a lot of posters on this board. He's at the point in his development where he absolutely needs regular NHL time, but I doubt he gets that with us this year.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

This is clearly Amirov for me, I think he has all the tools to be a 1st line winger someday.

All I'll say about Liljegren is I feel the organization is not nearly as high on him as a lot of posters on this board. He's at the point in his development where he absolutely needs regular NHL time, but I doubt he gets that with us this year.

Dubas admitted to blocking them last year but wanting to get Sandin and Liljegren minutes this year. They'll get a chance.

 

[justashadowof]

Amirov. One year from his draft, had an eventful post draft year with some spurts of production in the KHL. Gave no reason to lower his rating from draft day but didn't climb either. Liljegren is 4 years from his draft. Liljegren's ceiling has dropped as his attributes and deficiencies become more fleshed out. I fail to see him ahead of the younger higher ceiling Amirov and possibly Abramov.

Add Holmberg. Not a high ceiling at all but he seems likely to play in the NHL eventually.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

I was rereading some old prospect threads the other day. I remember when the overwhelming consensus was that the Goat’s floor was Martin Hanzal and his ceiling was Jordan Stall. Good times.
Voted Amirov here but I think the only surefire nhl regular out of the top 4 is just Sandin. Hoping Matt Knies pans out as well.

Yea that's what happens when you're drafting was awful for years, gotta hype up a crappy first round pick for some copium.

 

[notbias]

This is clearly Amirov for me, I think he has all the tools to be a 1st line winger someday.

All I'll say about Liljegren is I feel the organization is not nearly as high on him as a lot of posters on this board. He's at the point in his development where he absolutely needs regular NHL time, but I doubt he gets that with us this year.

Hasn't it been said by staff (Dubas/Keefe) that the thing blocking him has been his bonuses and didn't Sandin agree not to have any in hopes he'd get called up quicker?

I think Liljegren has been ready for 2 years now and is better than Sandin, but it has been hard with the cap.

Amirov > Liljegren, I will agree there, but I do think Liljegren is still our #2 prospect.

As crazy as it sounds, I think there is a chance Mennell starts as our #6 over both Sandin/Liljegren since it gives us the most cap flexibility (also needs to clear waivers) and he may be a good PP QB.

 

[banks]

I feel AHL performance is important, and it's usually a pretty good indicator for where a player is at. But something about Liljegren just seems wrong. And I'll continue to think that until he makes an impact in some NHL games.

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

Liljegren reminds me of Anton Stralman. Different player.. we gave up on Stralman way too early. I don't think people appreciate how good of a prospect this kid is.. news flash we had Brodie, Holl, Bogosian and Dermott blocking him.

 

[kb]

Well he was in the AHL from a very young age, much younger than typical, and has excelled there. He has top 4 upside and has proven more than everyone but Sandin in the upper tier of the prospect group.

Just because he isn't new and shiny doesn't mean he's a not good prospect. IMO a fairer assessment is that he really has nothing left to prove in the AHL. This is his season to solidify himself as a NHL defender. If he can't, there's definite reason to be sceptical on his future.

BOOOM

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Liljegren reminds me of Anton Stralman. Different player.. we gave up on Stralman way too early. I don't think people appreciate how good of a prospect this kid is.. news flash we had Brodie, Holl, Bogosian and Dermott blocking him.

Everything about Liljegren up to this point suggests that Stralman's career is Liljegrens low end. Top end would be like a Kaberle, Hjalmarsson lite hybrid.

 

[aingefan]

5-10 is where it’s gonna get interesting. Or 5-15 or so…there’s reasonable expectations that most guys up to (about) 15 will carve out nhl careers.
In fact, it would be nice if the Leafs had as much confidence in their development program as the Raps did. Develop more guys on the fly. I get the rationale for not doing it….but that’s what I’d actually prefer.

 

[FiveHoleo]

He’s been held back and given little opportunity. I like him but he’s not getting a chance so why vote for him. He makes to much if he reaches his bonus structure to fit the cap if you can fathom that.

4 years with the club and 13 NHL games, not sure how he's not getting a chance. If Timmy didn't look like a chicken with his head cut off in those 13 games he'd have more of them I'm sure. Bust.

 

[justashadowof]

Liljegren is nothing like Stralman. Stralman oozed confidence immediately. Stralman was a prickly arrogant individual with a high hockey IQ. Other than handedness, Sandin is the closest thing to Stralman since Stralman.

For a historical Leafs' example, Liljegren is like Colaiacovo, NHL level abilities at a young age but not mentally there at the NHL level at a young age. A career trajectory like Ron Hainsey's is what I could envision for Liljegren. Despite being a 1st round pick Hainsey really didn't establish himself as a legit NHLer until 24 to 25 years of age and wasn't really well regarded until his 30's.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Everything about Liljegren up to this point suggests that Stralman's career is Liljegrens low end.

So the low end projection for a 22 year old with 13 NHL games is a definite top 4 guy who played at a top pair level for multiple years. Sure thing.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Liljegren is likely going to break a lot of hearts here. I think it's far more likely he ends up a 3rd pairing guy that can do spot duty in the top 4 than what some posters think he will become.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

So the low end projection for a 22 year old with 13 NHL games is a definite top 4 guy who played at a top pair level for multiple years. Sure thing.

Stralman was drafted in the 7th round in 2005. As a 19 year old. He passed through on his first year of eligibility and didn't make the NHL until he was 21. And even then Stralman wasn't ready. The Leafs just sucked. The following year, his 22 year old season he played 38 NHL games and 36 AHL games. Stralman didn't become an actual significant NHL contributor until his first year in Columbus as a 23 year old.

 

[Anthrax442]

Well he was in the AHL from a very young age, much younger than typical, and has excelled there. He has top 4 upside and has proven more than everyone but Sandin in the upper tier of the prospect group.

Just because he isn't new and shiny doesn't mean he's a not good prospect. IMO a fairer assessment is that he really has nothing left to prove in the AHL. This is his season to solidify himself as a NHL defender. If he can't, there's definite reason to be sceptical on his future.

I was always amazed how quickly people moved on to Sandin and discarded of Lilly like an old toy.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Liljegren is nothing like Stralman. Stralman oozed confidence immediately. Stralman was a prickly arrogant individual with a high hockey IQ. Other than handedness, Sandin is the closest thing to Stralman since Stralman.

For a historical Leafs' example, Liljegren is like Colaiacovo, NHL level abilities at a young age but not mentally there at the NHL level at a young age. A career trajectory like Ron Hainsey's is what I could envision for Liljegren. Despite being a 1st round pick Hainsey really didn't establish himself as a legit NHLer until 24 to 25 years of age and wasn't really well regarded until his 30's.

That's funny because that was 1 of the issues GMS were quoted on at draft day. And 1 of the reasons Liljegren fell. He had a confidence to him that made it look like arrogance and made it seem like he was better than everyone else.

 

[Anthrax442]

That's funny because that was 1 of the issues GMS were quoted on at draft day. And 1 of the reasons Liljegren fell. He had a confidence to him that made it look like arrogance and made it seem like he was better than everyone else.

They are elite athletes, confidence border lining on egocentrism should be a part of their mental make up.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Stralman was drafted in the 7th round in 2005. As a 19 year old. He passed through on his first year of eligibility and didn't make the NHL until he was 21. And even then Stralman wasn't ready. The Leafs just sucked. The following year, his 22 year old season he played 38 NHL games and 36 AHL games. Stralman didn't become an actual significant NHL contributor until his first year in Columbus as a 23 year old.

There's a reason Stralman is well known as an unusual development case, because he's far more of an outlier than the norm. For every Stralman there's a dozen defenseman with his profile that never made it. It's like saying Nic Petan's low end projection is Yanni Gourde because he also wasn't an established player at 25.

Stralman is much closer to a best case scenario for Liljegren than his low end projection. Liljegren's low end projection is never becoming a NHL regular.

 

[Tarmore]

That's funny because that was 1 of the issues GMS were quoted on at draft day. And 1 of the reasons Liljegren fell. He had a confidence to him that made it look like arrogance and made it seem like he was better than everyone else.

Link? I don't remember this, but wasn't as plugged into that draft