Prospect Info: 2021 Leafs Board Prospect Rankings #11

[Morgs]

Villeneuve was added with 3 votes. Vote for who to add next.

1. Each poll will be open for 24 hours.

2. As we never have a consensus way as to which players are still considered prospects, we'll be using my way (at least for the first few polls). The player must be U24 and have less than 50 GP in the NHL. The "prospects" that are left off because of these rules are Joey Anderson, Brennan Menell, Adam Brooks, Joseph Duszak, Vladimir Bobylev, and Nickolai Chebykin.

3. At this time we'll stick to the top-20, but if we want to go to 25 or 30 (I believe the Leafs have just over 30 guys that are eligible) I'll definitely go further.

Rankings:
1. Rasmus Sandin - 53.2%
2. Nick Robertson - 50.9%
3. Timothy Liljegren - 56.9%
4. Rodion Amirov - 90.6%
5. Topi Niemela - 62.1%
6. Matthew Knies - 45.4%
7. Roni Hirvonen - 61.1%
8. Mikhail Abramov - 47.5%
9. Mikko Kokkonen - 44.7%
10. Veeti Miettinen - 49.4%
11.
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16.
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20.

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On the Docket:

Player	Position	Age	League	GP	Goals	Points	PPG	NHLe	Acquired
Nick Abruzzese	W	22.3	NCAA	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	4th Round Pick 2019
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev	C	21.0	KHL	10	1	5	0.50	25.3	3rd Round Pick 2018
Dmitri Ovchinnikov	C/W	19.0	MHL	40	20	51	1.28	17.8	5th Round Pick 2020
Pontus Holmberg	W	22.5	SHL	45	9	23	0.51	20.5	6th Round Pick 2018
Pavel Gogolev	W	21.5	AHL	13	6	12	0.9	31.2	UDFA
Filip Kral	LHD	21.9	CZE	48	6	21	0.44	14.2	5th Round Pick 2018
Mike Koster	LHD	20.4	NCAA	31	3	12	0.39	7.3	5th Round Pick 2019
Artur Ahktyamov	G	19.8	VHL	14	0	0	0	0.927	4th Round Pick 2020
Ty Voit	W	18.2	OHL	0	0	0	0.00	0	5th Round Pick 2021
William Villeneuve	RHD	19.5	QMJHL	33	3	20	0.61	7.9	4th Round Pick 2020

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

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Next:

Player	Position	Age	League	GP	Goals	Points	PPG	NHLe	Acquired
Axel Rindell	RHD	21.4	Liiga	47	7	19	0.40	12.0	6th Round Pick 2020
Alex Steeves	C/W	21.7	NCAA	29	15	32	1.10	20.9	UDFA
Ryan Tverberg	C	19.6	NCAA	14	4	7	0.50	8.4	7th Round Pick 2020
Mac Hollowell	RHD	22.9	AHL	27	2	10	0.37	12.5	4th Round Pick 2018
Semyon Kizimov	W	21.6	VHL	35	7	14	0.40	8.8	7th Round Pick 2018
Kalle Loponen	RHD	20.5	U20 Sarja	44	11	36	0.82	4.9	7th Round Pick 2019
Wyatt Schingoethe	C	19.1	USHL	44	10	21	0.48	4.6	7th Round Pick 2020
Joe Miller	C/W	19.0	USHL	40	8	18	0.45	4.4	6th Round Pick 2020
Kristans Rubins	LHD	23.7	AHL	22	1	3	0.14	4.6	UDFA
John Fusco	RHD	20.2	USHL	20	2	12	0.60	5.8	7th Round Pick 2020
Ryan O'Connell	LHD	22.4	NCAA	27	0	6	0.22	4.2	7th Round Pick 2017
Vladislav Kara	W	23.4	KHL	23	1	3	0.13	6.6	4th Round Pick 2017

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	Position	Age	League	GP	SV%	Acquired
Ian Scott	G	22.6	AHL	1	0.857	4th Round Pick 2017
Joseph Woll	G	23.1	AHL	15	0.892	3rd Round Pick 2016
Vyacheslav Peksa	G	19.0	MHL	17	0.909	6th Round Pick 2021

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

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Past Results:
Prospect Info: - 2019 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #20
Prospect Info: - 2020 Leafs Board Prospect Rankings #20

Click to read more...

 

[Morgs]

Abruzzese. Add Rindell.

Kinda shocked Miettinen only got 49% of the last vote. Seemed like the overwhelmingly obvious choice.

 

[Ashdown2]

Ovchinnikov ...
you guys are WAAAAY to high on Abruzzese .... i wouldnt even have him in my top 15

 

[Morgs]

Ovchinnikov ...
you guys are WAAAAY to high on Abruzzese .... i wouldnt even have him in my top 15

It's kinda strange you feel like that yet have Ovchinnikov higher. There are massive question marks for every player left except mayyyybe Holmberg and Kral, but I'd argue their upside is probably more limited compared to the rest of the group. Don't get me wrong; I'm a huge fan of Ovchinnikov's. It's just his question marks are arguably *much* bigger than I'd say Abruzzese's are at this point.

Abruzzese:
Had a great season his D+2 (drafted by the Leafs)
Had a ridiculously good sesason his D+3.
- Late bloomer, so is it because he was older that he was *that* good?
- Major surgery, will he bounce back?
- Is he staying 4 full years? (Would be his D+6)

Ovchinnikov:
Had a great D0 season (drafted by the Leafs)
Had a fantastic D+1 season
- Playing in the "easy" division of the MHL.
- Playing almost 24 minutes a game, so that + the easier comp, the production is probably deceiving.
- Has no clear path to real KHL time and his org has no VHL affiliate.

They're both longshot impact prospects and both have the ability to easily move into our top-10. I just think their ceilings are probably similar and Abruzzese's floor, assuming he bounces back from injury, is much much higher.

 

[aingefan]

I think there are a bunch of guys in the next cluster, who all had impressive years. I think I’ll go with Kral over the others (Gogolev, Koster, and Holmberg).

 

[Apex Predator]

Went Gogolev

add Rindell

 

[aingefan]

It's kinda strange you feel like that yet have Ovchinnikov higher. There are massive question marks for every player left except mayyyybe Holmberg and Kral, but I'd argue their upside is probably more limited compared to the rest of the group. Don't get me wrong; I'm a huge fan of Ovchinnikov's. It's just his question marks are arguably *much* bigger than I'd say Abruzzese's are at this point.

Abruzzese:
Had a great season his D+2 (drafted by the Leafs)
Had a ridiculously good sesason his D+3.
- Late bloomer, so is it because he was older that he was *that* good?
- Major surgery, will he bounce back?
- Is he staying 4 full years? (Would be his D+6)

Ovchinnikov:
Had a great D0 season (drafted by the Leafs)
Had a fantastic D+1 season
- Playing in the "easy" division of the MHL.
- Playing almost 24 minutes a game, so that + the easier comp, the production is probably deceiving.
- Has no clear path to real KHL time and his org has no VHL affiliate.

They're both longshot impact prospects and both have the ability to easily move into our top-10. I just think their ceilings are probably similar and Abruzzese's floor, assuming he bounces back from injury, is much much higher.

Solid reasoning IMO.
Mini Ovi is interesting but has less exposure against better competition. Similar to Villeneuve.
I have him a smidge behind the next cluster, and happily acknowledge that he could leapfrog a bunch of guys with a good year against better comp.
Add Steeves maybe.

 

[Morgs]

Solid reasoning IMO.
Mini Ovi is interesting but has less exposure against better competition. Similar to Villeneuve.
I have him a smidge behind the next cluster, and happily acknowledge that he could leapfrog a bunch of guys with a good year against better comp.
Add Steeves maybe.

Exactly. Villeneuve is a whole different animal though, but let's hope we see some massive development this year, because last year sucked.

I'm probably higher than most people on this board on Ovchinnikov (looking at you SeaOfBlue ) and I've actually sat down and watched 10+ of his games. He's by far the best player on his team, and arguably the best player in every game he plays. The issue is we have no idea if it's solely because he's dominating a league he's far too good for, or if it's because he's just *that* good. Him playing in the MHL this season is a massive waste of a development year. He needs to face real competition with ~10 minutes a game minimum. Too bad Sibir just simply doesn't have to give it to him if they don't want to. I have him in this tier, but I just didn't like seeing someone trash Abruzzese and talk up Ovi when in reality they both have massive question marks.

 

[aingefan]

My only point on Villeneuve (ranked around Ovi, not on par with him or anything) is that he’s talented and younger and had little comp against older/better comp. That's the similarity I see.
I’ve just read mixed reports on his year, last year; mostly that he concentrated on defensive awareness more particularly early in the year to round out his game. Hoping he has a big year. The more hits the better.

 

[ponder]

I’m going full undrafted on this one - voted Gogolev, add Steeves.

 

[stickty111]

Abruzzese but mainly because he's probably closer to the NHL albiet still far likely. Lost almost 2 years for things not even his fault but was fantastic in his D+1. I think his floor is balanced while still having high upside.

 

[Lauro]

Abruzzese, add Steeves.

 

[tmlfan98]

Add Hollowell

 

[Advanced stats]

Add the new goalie

 

[Twine Tickler]

I voted Holmberg. He is playing in a mens league and is performing very well. I expect more of the same this year. I think his role should get expanded this year given how well he performed late in the season last year as well as his production in the post season. He kind of came out of nowhere last year to some degree and had a meteoric rise up our chart. If he gets another solid season under his belt, we could really have a gem in Pontus. Additionally he wouldn't be all that far away from being an NHL player, having played in a man's league for the last 3 seasons. If he can produce at say 0.8Pts/game this season with Vaxjo, which I think he can, I can't imagine he wouldn't get a real look for the Leafs 2022-23 roster.

Abrusezze is still a very solid prospect. Read a comment stating we are way too high on him. I am not sure I agree. I just think there is a massive amount of unknown having missed the entire year last year. We have seen the impact that has made to Ian Scott for example, Albeit 2 different positions. It is just really hard to make up that type of ground when you lose those critical developmental years. I hope he picks up where he left off.

Ovchinikov is a very very good player in the MHL. Flat out dominant really. But he will need to produce at the next level for me to fully commit to saying this kid is a stud. He has gamebreaker stuff, but I want to see how it translates to a man's game. He is decently undersized, at least when we drafted him he was. But his speed, and ability to make plays at that speed is scary good

 

[Ashdown2]

It's kinda strange you feel like that yet have Ovchinnikov higher. There are massive question marks for every player left except mayyyybe Holmberg and Kral, but I'd argue their upside is probably more limited compared to the rest of the group. Don't get me wrong; I'm a huge fan of Ovchinnikov's. It's just his question marks are arguably *much* bigger than I'd say Abruzzese's are at this point.

Abruzzese:
Had a great season his D+2 (drafted by the Leafs)
Had a ridiculously good sesason his D+3.
- Late bloomer, so is it because he was older that he was *that* good?
- Major surgery, will he bounce back?
- Is he staying 4 full years? (Would be his D+6)

Ovchinnikov:
Had a great D0 season (drafted by the Leafs)
Had a fantastic D+1 season
- Playing in the "easy" division of the MHL.
- Playing almost 24 minutes a game, so that + the easier comp, the production is probably deceiving.
- Has no clear path to real KHL time and his org has no VHL affiliate.

They're both longshot impact prospects and both have the ability to easily move into our top-10. I just think their ceilings are probably similar and Abruzzese's floor, assuming he bounces back from injury, is much much higher.

you cant compare Draft year stats because abruz was a massive overager drafted player . the guy is already 22 years old !
ov plays ALOT (massive mount) better competition by playing in an adult league at 19 years. He has a more complete game and a game more suited to the nhl as at least a 4th liner.
and lets face it. Size is a thing. I usually dont care about size for prospects but when a guy is already 22 he isnt getting any bigger and has reached his max size where a guy like ov can still put on 20 pounds of muscle by the time he hits the same age .

i dont think these 2 are even remotly comparable. I would put both gogo and Holmberg ahead of abruz. Both those players are playing men leagues and at times dominate in those leagues.

 

[Morgs]

Add the new goalie

The guy we just got from.Detroit? He's on an AHL contract, isn't technically a prospect

 

[notbias]

I'll go with ceiling at this point.. give me future first line winger Ovchinnikov

 

[Morgs]

you cant compare Draft year stats because abruz was a massive overager drafted player . the guy is already 22 years old !
ov plays ALOT (massive mount) better competition by playing in an adult league at 19 years. He has a more complete game and a game more suited to the nhl as at least a 4th liner.
and lets face it. Size is a thing. I usually dont care about size for prospects but when a guy is already 22 he isnt getting any bigger and has reached his max size where a guy like ov can still put on 20 pounds of muscle by the time he hits the same age .

i dont think these 2 are even remotly comparable. I would put both gogo and Holmberg ahead of abruz. Both those players are playing men leagues and at times dominate in those leagues.

I wasn't comparing draft stats, I clearly pointed out what years they were each time.

MHL is a weaker lesgue than the CHL, which in turn is weaker than the NCAA. Not to mention Ovi is playing in the weaker division of the MHL which makes his stats even less impressive to go along with playing almost half the game on average.

As for size? Didn't hurt Abruzzese when he crushed the NCAA. Won't hurt when he moves to the AHL some day.

 

[Ashdown2]

I wasn't comparing draft stats, I clearly pointed out what years they were each time.

MHL is a weaker lesgue than the CHL, which in turn is weaker than the NCAA. Not to mention Ovi is playing in the weaker division of the MHL which makes his stats even less impressive to go along with playing almost half the game on average.

As for size? Didn't hurt Abruzzese when he crushed the NCAA. Won't hurt when he moves to the AHL some day.

I was saying that ov played in the K and more than just a handful of games. This is a good sign considering 18 and 19 year old almost never play in that league . and yes i understand the points , role , ice time thing buts its very impressive just to be on a team at that age. meanwhile he dominated the lower league and played really well for his country when called upon.

maybe its unclear, are we comparing ncaa to MHL , shouldnt we be comparing USHL to MHL at the same age ? ov will be full time KHL or even AHL at the same age abruz is now. Maybe im too caught up on age and quality of competition but when is abruz going to join a real mans league ,, at 23 or 24 years old ?

 

[Apex Predator]

Abruzzese for me is a long shot considering he’s 22 years old and missed a whole year of development. I know Dubas named dropped him once but I don’t know if that was to boost his value on a potential trade he was working with someone at the time.

 

[4thline]

Personally I have Abbruzzeze at the tail end of group with Holmberg/Gogolev/Koster/Kral in front of him, then Ovchinnikov in the next group down as a complete wildcard

 

[Advanced stats]

The guy we just got from.Detroit? He's on an AHL contract, isn't technically a prospect

Fair, I remember we had this fight with Barzeau last year

 

[ACC1224]

Where does the new goalie go on this list ? Top 5?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Fair, I remember we had this fight with Barzeau last year

I don't even see how it is a fight... It is a fact that he is not a Leafs' prospect.