Speculation: 2021 Expansion draft

[Friday]

Cant help but think a lot of the declining players on this team are due to motivation issues. Drop most of these players on teams like Vegas and Colorado and watch them get back to their pre 2018 ish paces.

 

[seroes]

Burns is declining from a 80 point offensive defensemen to a 50 point defenseman. Declining yes, but no where close to being as quick of a decline as some you all think he is doing it. At the very worst he will be a late 30's to 50 point defensemen in 4 years, slightly overpaid. But still very much needed on a contending team. At no point in this contract will burns become a negative value to the team. Especially since there is no one close enough to dethroning him on the current team or even in the system for the next 3 or so years.

But any ways i am done with this conversation with you, we have 2 very different opinions on where the team actually is right now and where the team will be going in the next 4 years. You think they will be coming out of a rebuild in those 4 years i think they will be trying to compete next season like wilson keeps trying to tell people he is doing. Until one of those 2 opinions changes this conversation is just going to go around and round in circles with no end in sight.

Not going to get in to it for a Vlassic buyout with you. We both disagree on that. But do you really think there will be almost no decline for Burns from his current level? He has been on a steady decline already and is not an elite player anymore. Still a great top 4 option but I can't see him being a 40 point player in 2 years let alone 4.

 

[seroes]

You decrease your odds of competing by keeping a vastly overpaid player who is very arguably a net negative player at full price all to shave off two years at 1.8 mil at the back end. I disagree with your benefit conclusion and it's not absurd to think so.

Do you really think we are close to competing? Let alone contending? I just don't see it and we certainly don't have a franchise level prospect coming to save us.

 

[Barrie22]

Not going to get in to it for a Vlassic buyout with you. We both disagree on that. But do you really think there will be almost no decline for Burns from his current level? He has been on a steady decline already and is not an elite player anymore. Still a great top 4 option but I can't see him being a 40 point player in 2 years let alone 4.

He has had the same 50 point pace the past 2 years and this is with the team having severe lack of depth. Give him depth on the team and there is zero reason why he does not keep up this or a slightly lower pace for 4 more years.

 

[Barrie22]

Do you really think we are close to competing? Let alone contending? I just don't see it and we certainly don't have a franchise level prospect coming to save us.

With the right move in the offseason yes we can be competing next season.

Adding a top line center would push us into maybe contending if the other parts played even half decently. But that happening this offseason is a long shot. Adding another top 6 forward and a tweener for the 2nd or 3rd line would make us compete.

But lots of this has to do with the team commiting defensively or finding a goalie that can give average goaltending under the absolute worst defensive play imaginable.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Do you really think we are close to competing? Let alone contending? I just don't see it and we certainly don't have a franchise level prospect coming to save us.

I think Sharks can most certainly be competitive next year. To me the wild-card is Jones and if he can continue to bounce back and keep a SV% of 0.910 or better. Sharks have 13M cap space next season (assuming flat cap). That is with 5 of our current top-6 F and entire defense being set.

Kane-Couture-Labanc
Meier-Hertl-
Leonard-

Ferraro-Burns
Simek-Kalrsson
Vlasic-Knyzhov

Jones

That cap space goes up to 18M+ if we buy out Vlasic. Fill his position with a UFA under 2M AAV and still leaves you over 16M. I am not sure how much re-signing the likes of Donato, Balcers, Gambrell, Gregor, True will cost but I am assuming it will not be that high and some (Gregor, True) may end up getting 2 way contracts as well. We may potentially lose Simek in FA but I expect his replacement may be about the same price or even cheaper.

I would not put money on Merkley, Wiesblatt, Bordleau or Chekhovich being impact players next season but there is a chance. This team is at a point where they may end up having really good cheap and talented depth at forward in the next season or two. They may not have the elite #1C but that depth can be a big factor in the playoffs.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Do you really think we are close to competing? Let alone contending? I just don't see it and we certainly don't have a franchise level prospect coming to save us.

Competing for a playoff spot? Yes. For a Cup? No. However, even if you were a rebuilding or resetting team, buying someone out that you have no real options for can help you if you use the space appropriately. Yes, you have to account for Vlasic's spikes in his cap hit but if you bought him out after this season, you could use the 5.4 mil you would create to make a deal with a team who may be willing to part with a promising young asset to take a cap dump. Just as an example, pretty similar to what we did with Minnesota this past off-season. I don't think they need a franchise level prospect coming to save us to justify this sort of transaction. Now, if the team has no real plans on utilizing the space they'd save by buying out Vlasic then it makes sense for them to keep him until that's the case. But between the sort of prospects this team does have and what they can do with the savings, it's certainly something to consider. If this team is more or less going with the same mentality this off-season of resetting, I think it makes sense to buy Vlasic out to open up that spot for the likes of Pasichnuk, Hatakka, and Kniazev to earn and then use the cap space to acquire future assets. It doesn't need to be exactly like Dubnyk/Donato for draft picks as it could also just be being a middle man to retain cap for a rental. I can see Vancouver or Edmonton calling the Sharks about us taking on Holtby or Koskinen for some meaningful future asset that would be more easily available for us by doing this sort of move.

 

[Cas]

To me the wild-card is Jones and if he can continue to bounce back and keep a SV% of 0.910 or better.

I think we should have zero confidence in that happening.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think we should have zero confidence in that happening.

I don't think anyone would but he's the guy I'm hoping we can get Seattle to take. Ideally, Dubnyk and Jones split the next nine starts before the deadline and we get a 6th round pick or better for Dubnyk and we come out pretty far ahead on the trade with Minnesota. I'm not expecting it but if Jones does well enough with the remaining schedule to finish the year around .910 save percentage, I think it makes it easier to entice Seattle to do it. Although the Florida/Vegas deal was rightfully universally panned for what it was, it at least showed it's possible to get an expansion team to take a long term deal. They just have to find out what they need to move to make that happen.

 

[seroes]

He has had the same 50 point pace the past 2 years and this is with the team having severe lack of depth. Give him depth on the team and there is zero reason why he does not keep up this or a slightly lower pace for 4 more years.

That's assuming our top six sticks around. There is a decent chance we lose Hertl or Meier as cap casualties due to Wilson's extensions not paying off. And I'm sorry I just don't see how he doesn't slide further in production and overall play, especially as we lower his ice time as he gets older.

With the right move in the offseason yes we can be competing next season.

Adding a top line center would push us into maybe contending if the other parts played even half decently. But that happening this offseason is a long shot. Adding another top 6 forward and a tweener for the 2nd or 3rd line would make us compete.

But lots of this has to do with the team commiting defensively or finding a goalie that can give average goaltending under the absolute worst defensive play imaginable.

We're going to have issues keeping what we have after next year, and that's before we add those kind of players. I'm assuming that your using out Vlassic and Jones. Or finding a way to move Jones. Either way that's hurting our long term cap and the next core.

The Eichel stuff is a pipedream I think. Finding a goalie of that caliber is also unrealistic. And to be frank their is a limit to what defense core can do defensively with Karlsson and Burns on it. If Merkley comes up in the next year or two then makes it even worse. I just don't see it.

 

[seroes]

I think Sharks can most certainly be competitive next year. To me the wild-card is Jones and if he can continue to bounce back and keep a SV% of 0.910 or better. Sharks have 13M cap space next season (assuming flat cap). That is with 5 of our current top-6 F and entire defense being set.

Kane-Couture-Labanc
Meier-Hertl-
Leonard-

Ferraro-Burns
Simek-Kalrsson
Vlasic-Knyzhov

Jones

That cap space goes up to 18M+ if we buy out Vlasic. Fill his position with a UFA under 2M AAV and still leaves you over 16M. I am not sure how much re-signing the likes of Donato, Balcers, Gambrell, Gregor, True will cost but I am assuming it will not be that high and some (Gregor, True) may end up getting 2 way contracts as well. We may potentially lose Simek in FA but I expect his replacement may be about the same price or even cheaper.

I would not put money on Merkley, Wiesblatt, Bordleau or Chekhovich being impact players next season but there is a chance. This team is at a point where they may end up having really good cheap and talented depth at forward in the next season or two. They may not have the elite #1C but that depth can be a big factor in the playoffs.

Flat cap is almost garunteed the next two years. Jones reverting to dumpster fire is almost as certain.

Balcers and Donato will both need small raises. I figure that's about 3-3.5 between them. Everyone else should come in around league minimum.

Bring in another top six and that's around 5-7 million probably. And the year after Hertl and Ferraro are up for their raises. Hertl is probably in that 7-8 range and Ferraro will depend on how much he advances next year. But thats gonna be at least a couple million.

The only one who should be an NHLer next year is Chekovich. But if he is anything beyond a 3rd liner next year I'd be surprised.

 

[seroes]

Competing for a playoff spot? Yes. For a Cup? No. However, even if you were a rebuilding or resetting team, buying someone out that you have no real options for can help you if you use the space appropriately. Yes, you have to account for Vlasic's spikes in his cap hit but if you bought him out after this season, you could use the 5.4 mil you would create to make a deal with a team who may be willing to part with a promising young asset to take a cap dump. Just as an example, pretty similar to what we did with Minnesota this past off-season. I don't think they need a franchise level prospect coming to save us to justify this sort of transaction. Now, if the team has no real plans on utilizing the space they'd save by buying out Vlasic then it makes sense for them to keep him until that's the case. But between the sort of prospects this team does have and what they can do with the savings, it's certainly something to consider. If this team is more or less going with the same mentality this off-season of resetting, I think it makes sense to buy Vlasic out to open up that spot for the likes of Pasichnuk, Hatakka, and Kniazev to earn and then use the cap space to acquire future assets. It doesn't need to be exactly like Dubnyk/Donato for draft picks as it could also just be being a middle man to retain cap for a rental. I can see Vancouver or Edmonton calling the Sharks about us taking on Holtby or Koskinen for some meaningful future asset that would be more easily available for us by doing this sort of move.

I think we've already done our 12 rounds over buying out Vlassic. I'm against it for the next 2-3 years. You're for it. I'll wait to rehash it until at least after the TDL to see what happens.

Not against those deals, but what could we get for taking those on? A 2nd and B prospect?

 

[mogambomoroo]

Classic Vlasic talk!
Hey, what ever happens to him, I'm just sad it got to this point. Vlasic before his big contract was a guy, that made us smile and made our goalies look good.
BUT hey we have Mario Freakin' Ferraro, so no problem <3

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think we've already done our 12 rounds over buying out Vlassic. I'm against it for the next 2-3 years. You're for it. I'll wait to rehash it until at least after the TDL to see what happens.

Not against those deals, but what could we get for taking those on? A 2nd and B prospect?

I think waiting 2-3 years when you have kids pretty close to being ready to take his spot in the lineup if they aren't already is not going to help. It'd be one thing if we didn't have anything coming up that could fill that role but we do. I just feel like a spot in the lineup for Pasichnuk, Kniazev, or Hatakka and whatever deal we'd make with the cap left over is more valuable than the dead cap hit we'd have for Vlasic or keeping him. I get though that it's unlikely for monetary reasons and it looks bad for DW but if there's no trade options, that's still a better alternative to me.

 

[OffSydes]

Cant help but think a lot of the declining players on this team are due to motivation issues. Drop most of these players on teams like Vegas and Colorado and watch them get back to their pre 2018 ish paces.

The reason the team is bad is because of those bad players

 

[seroes]

I think waiting 2-3 years when you have kids pretty close to being ready to take his spot in the lineup if they aren't already is not going to help. It'd be one thing if we didn't have anything coming up that could fill that role but we do. I just feel like a spot in the lineup for Pasichnuk, Kniazev, or Hatakka and whatever deal we'd make with the cap left over is more valuable than the dead cap hit we'd have for Vlasic or keeping him. I get though that it's unlikely for monetary reasons and it looks bad for DW but if there's no trade options, that's still a better alternative to me.

I'm not advocating starting him. Just not buying him out. He can be our 7D. If any of those guys beat him out they should start.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm not advocating starting him. Just not buying him out. He can be our 7D. If any of those guys beat him out they should start.

I can't see them benching him but not buying him out. If he's here, he's playing.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

I'd rather have Burns until he's 40 than Simek. A slightly overpaid Burns is still a better player to keep around than Simek.

[Mod edit] 4 more years at 8 million per versus 3 more at 2.25? The Burns contract is a massively depreciating asset where as with Simek you have a better chance for a slower rate of depreciation and his contract is movable.

Barring a miracle this team is not competing for anything for 5 years+ The sooner some of you leave fantasyland and wake up to the reality that this franchise massively hosed when it comes to the cap and bad contracts the better it will be for your health.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Burns is declining from a 80 point offensive defensemen to a 50 point defenseman. Declining yes, but no where close to being as quick of a decline as some you all think he is doing it. At the very worst he will be a late 30's to 50 point defensemen in 4 years, slightly overpaid. But still very much needed on a contending team. At no point in this contract will burns become a negative value to the team. Especially since there is no one close enough to dethroning him on the current team or even in the system for the next 3 or so years.

But any ways i am done with this conversation with you, we have 2 very different opinions on where the team actually is right now and where the team will be going in the next 4 years. You think they will be coming out of a rebuild in those 4 years i think they will be trying to compete next season like wilson keeps trying to tell people he is doing. Until one of those 2 opinions changes this conversation is just going to go around and round in circles with no end in sight.

This is not a contending team and it won't be for a long time. Just because Wilson says it will contend doesn't mean that it will.

Please explain how this team will compete next year when it is getting run out of the building against Phoenix and is the 6th worst team in the NHL with nearly 65% of its cap money tied up in lengthy and expensive contracts?

This team is atrocious up the middle. They are 26th out of 31 teams in face offs. They are 28th out of 31 in Goals Allowed/Game.

They are 25th out of 31 in allowing High Danger chances. They are 27th out of 31 in save percentage.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

[Mod edit] 4 more years at 8 million per versus 3 more at 2.25? The Burns contract is a massively depreciating asset where as with Simek you have a better chance for a slower rate of depreciation and his contract is movable.

Barring a miracle this team is not competing for anything for 5 years+ The sooner some of you leave fantasyland and wake up to the reality that this franchise massively hosed when it comes to the cap and bad contracts the better it will be for your health.

[Mod edit] Simek is a dime a dozen player that offers nothing but a warm body. Burns could depreciate to a 30 point defenseman and still be more valuable than Simek will ever be. [Mod edit]

 

[seroes]

[Mod edit] Simek is a dime a dozen player that offers nothing but a warm body. Burns could depreciate to a 30 point defenseman and still be more valuable than Simek will ever be. Anyone claiming shit about competing in 5+ years can kick rocks as far as I'm concerned because you're not trying to have an actual conversation. You just want to sensationalize and denigrate others.

A 40 year old Burns is still probably a better player than Simek, but that 8 million cap hit at the end is nasty. Simek will never have that kind of risk associated with him.

 

[OrrNumber4]

With players and aging, often it isn't a gradual decline but a fall off a cliff...one season where there is just a huge drop in play.

 

[seroes]

With players and aging, often it isn't a gradual decline but a fall off a cliff...one season where there is just a huge drop in play.

So far that isn't Burns. But if it does happen we're in for a world of pain. But he is such a physical monster we should hopefully be safe from that.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

A 40 year old Burns is still probably a better player than Simek, but that 8 million cap hit at the end is nasty. Simek will never have that kind of risk associated with him.

Yeah but we’re talking about one year at that point and if he got really bad, a buyout for two years is fine to me. Simek may never have that risk but he’ll never even have that reward either. People are too worried about having to potentially deal with buyouts when it comes to these contracts. Most of them won’t even end that way. Burns is likely one of those guys because if we actually got someone like Clarke in this draft or Merkley to work out, we can move him to forward and still get decent use out of him. Granted, I would trade Burns if the opportunity becomes available this offseason or next but I’m not worried about having to keep him.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

[Mod edit] Simek is a dime a dozen player that offers nothing but a warm body. Burns could depreciate to a 30 point defenseman and still be more valuable than Simek will ever be. [Mod edit]

Quick question what do you think the Sharks would get for Burns in a trade? If you don't understand why Simek has higher trade value then the whole conversation is pointless. What does provide for the future of the franchise? His numbers are falling off a cliff.

During his peak with the Sharks Burns Corsi was reached a high of 61.7% and was usually in the upper fifties. This year it is currently 46.8 % which is the lowest of his career. His Corsi Rel during his prime peaked at 11.3% and was 8+% during his prime. He's now a -0.9% in Corsi Rel.

His Fenwick peaked at 61.9% and was in the middle to upper fifties during his prime, an he's now 46.5% a with a negative Fenwick Rel of 1.9 (also happens to be the first time in his career).

All of his scoring numbers are down to the levels during his first year as a Shark. His shots are way down. His C/60 peaked at 29.3 and was often in the high teens/low twenties during his prime and he's currently a negative 7.2. Same with his F/60 which is also negative for the first time in his career.

He and Simek have similar per 60 stat stats save for goal rate shot attempts.

So, explain to me how a player who is clearly falling off a cliff and has similar stats while being paid nearly 4x as much more valuable than an asset that has a shorter term and whose value isn't deteriorating with anywhere near the same velocity?

The Sharks would have to take on bad money or give pick(s)/prospects to get rid of Burns. The Sharks might be able to wrangle a late round pick for Simek and could easily expose him in expansion.

[Mod edit] The facts remain the Sharks have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL and they are nailed to the wall with hjgh-dollar value contracts of which only Kane and Couture are living up to...

24 out of 31 here https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/
26 out of 31 here https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2911430-nhl-farm-system-rankings-which-team-has-the-best-group-of-prospects

78% of the salary cap max is being spent on big contracts (Couture, Kane, Meier, Hertl, Labanc, Karlsson, Burns, Vlasic, Jones) and Meier's contract, which puts the Sharks on the hook for a 10 million dollar cap hit for an additional year if they elect to make a QO.

So, knowing all of this what are you going to pay Hertl in 2022-2023 and for what term? -7-8+ million for 7-8 years? What about Ferraro when his he needs a new contract as well in 2022-2023, or what about Donato at the end of this year? Balcers? Gambrell?

There's nothing sensational about what I've put to paper. It's all factual data with reasonable analysis. I'm sorry that it's upsetting that the Sharks are currently a giant disaster from a player personnel perspective, but burying your head in the sand isn't going make it any better.

While Doug Wilson did an admiral job of keeping this franchise competitive for a long period, his ego royally f***ed this franchise and the bill is coming due.