2021 Draft Position Tracker

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,837
4,722
Cleveland
10 games remain. We’ll trim the fat. Unfortunately, Buffalo is part of that fat.

The window will shrink down to .05%. We’ll restart that counter thing.

9. SJS .455
8. LAK .452
7. CLB .424
6. DET .413
5. NJD .395
4. ANA .389
3. SEATTLE KRAKEN
2. OTT .378


Tomorrow’s games

NYR vs NJD
VGK vs ANA


2 big games that could really improve the look of things.

Dallas makes/breaks their season with their next four games against us. So at least we shouldn't see a team looking past us on the schedule.
 

Leadzedder

Registered User
Jan 2, 2005
1,812
673
Dallas makes/breaks their season with their next four games against us. So at least we shouldn't see a team looking past us on the schedule.

Agree 100%. I had been keeping an eye on Nashville hoping they wouldn’t climb too high that these 4 games didn’t matter. Make or break is right. 3 teams battling for one spot.

And to make things more interesting Chi plays Nashville 3 times in a row as we play Dallas.
 
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Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
6,048
2,757
That's probably true to a degree. What this draft seems to lack in high end offensive ability from the prospects it more than makes up for in solid depth potential, players with good 2 way ability and a good amount of 1st round level defensive prospects.

I've been looking at a lot of articles that discuss the probabilities of draft picks turning out, and one of the common themes from the timeframes studied is that defensemen picked between 20 and 30 (the Caps pick) have a higher likelihood of becoming a top 4 defenseman than forwards in this range becoming a top 6 forward.

Obviously my favorite scenario is one where we win the lottery AND Washington falls to the 20-22 range so we get a good crack at my favorite forwards in the draft and one of my favorite defensemen in the 20s range (if he's available), but we have very 2 good chances at getting legit players in the first round. And we could do it in a number of ways. We also have 3 2nd rounders to take a gamble on any of the OHL forwards that would have likely gone in the first round in a normal year.

This I very much agree with, but it should not necessarily be construed as a statement on the ultimate probability of finding a top four defensemen late in the first. The vast majority of really good forwards are taken at the top of the draft. There are always exceptions, but the majority go early. Defensemen and goalies seem to be spread throughout the draft a little bit more.
 

jaster

Take me off ignore, please.
Jun 8, 2007
13,279
8,502
This I very much agree with, but it should not necessarily be construed as a statement on the ultimate probability of finding a top four defensemen late in the first. The vast majority of really good forwards are taken at the top of the draft. There are always exceptions, but the majority go early. Defensemen and goalies seem to be spread throughout the draft a little bit more.

Makes sense. Defenseman take longer to develop than forwards, so on draft day the average defenseman is further away from the finished product and therefore has a wider range of outcomes than the average forward. Essentially, they are more difficult to scout, so the best ones don't as easily coalesce at the top of the draft. And goalies, well, they are such a crapshoot in general, so it's a pretty similar dynamic.
 

Leadzedder

Registered User
Jan 2, 2005
1,812
673
Nah.

9. SJS .455
8. LAK .452
7. CLB .424
6. DET .413
5. NJD .386 (.395)
4. ANA .380 (.389)
3. SEATTLE KRAKEN
2. OTT .378

Tomorrow’s games

DET vs DAL

CLB vs FLA
OTT vs CGY
SJS vs VGK


0/4
 

LeftWingLocked

Registered User
Feb 24, 2018
492
453
Why doesn’t Yzerman do what Toronto did a few years back and just play the ahl players? This winning at the end of the year strategy is awful
 

deca guard

Registered User
Jun 22, 2019
6,173
4,218
www.reddit.com
fed up with this tank era . trade the 2022 1st to somebody for their like wise early 2021 1st . also trade the 2023 1st for another 2021 1st if can .
maybe get sweetners back in these deals too . then 7/1 sign every excellent vet to short term big coin deals to get this show on the road . edler-martinez-foligno-landeskog-etc , and start gunning for the playoffs . look for other ways to improve organization besides the draft . such as coaching , nutrition , training . scrutinize the whole organization looking for other ways to become a dynasty besides the draft . call in some outsiders from beyond the nhl to scrutinize the organization . i see what the vegas owners military mind did to instantly make vegas a powerhouse and know that he broke the mold and found new ways , thats where i want to look instead of staying in this ugly tank era ... and piling up extra 1sts this draft speeds up the rebuild instead of waiting to get early pix a year or two down the road . and getting the ball rolling would make todays roster happier to boot... i know many will say this draft is weak and theres better players next draft , im over that . jack hughes was supposed to be god , and others . but in reality its a guessing game , so get aggressive and attempt getting back on our feet quickly ...
 
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Barry Amsterdam

Nättias Dänielstrom
Apr 2, 2013
5,473
4,823
fed up with this tank era . trade the 2022 1st to somebody for their like wise early 2021 1st . also trade the 2023 1st for another 2021 1st if can .
maybe get sweetners back in these deals too . then 7/1 sign every excellent vet to short term big coin deals to get this show on the road . edler-martinez-foligno-landeskog-etc , and start gunning for the playoffs . look for other ways to improve organization besides the draft . such as coaching , nutrition , training . scrutinize the whole organization looking for other ways to become a dynasty besides the draft . call in some outsiders from beyond the nhl to scrutinize the organization . i see what the vegas owners military mind did to instantly make vegas a powerhouse and know that he broke the mold and found new ways , thats where i want to look instead of staying in this ugly tank era ... and piling up extra 1sts this draft speeds up the rebuild instead of waiting to get early pix a year or two down the road . and getting the ball rolling would make todays roster happier to boot... i know many will say this draft is weak and theres better players next draft , im over that . jack hughes was supposed to be god , and others . but in reality its a guessing game , so get aggressive and attempt getting back on our feet quickly ...
wrong approach we’re almost there just wait
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,694
4,645
I mean, what is location, really
fed up with this tank era . trade the 2022 1st to somebody for their like wise early 2021 1st . also trade the 2023 1st for another 2021 1st if can .
maybe get sweetners back in these deals too . then 7/1 sign every excellent vet to short term big coin deals to get this show on the road . edler-martinez-foligno-landeskog-etc , and start gunning for the playoffs . look for other ways to improve organization besides the draft . such as coaching , nutrition , training . scrutinize the whole organization looking for other ways to become a dynasty besides the draft . call in some outsiders from beyond the nhl to scrutinize the organization . i see what the vegas owners military mind did to instantly make vegas a powerhouse and know that he broke the mold and found new ways , thats where i want to look instead of staying in this ugly tank era ... and piling up extra 1sts this draft speeds up the rebuild instead of waiting to get early pix a year or two down the road . and getting the ball rolling would make todays roster happier to boot... i know many will say this draft is weak and theres better players next draft , im over that . jack hughes was supposed to be god , and others . but in reality its a guessing game , so get aggressive and attempt getting back on our feet quickly ...
I know the feeling, but it's a bad idea. We can't let impatience cloud our judgment. Vegas only built the team they did because they were given the expansion draft, which created massive value for them when teams weren't ready for it. Seattle isn't going to be so lucky.
 
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evolutionbaby

Registered User
Jan 7, 2012
820
225
I know the feeling, but it's a bad idea. We can't let impatience cloud our judgment. Vegas only built the team they did because they were given the expansion draft, which created massive value for them when teams weren't ready for it. Seattle isn't going to be so lucky.

Im not so sure. Vegas made many picks that left people scratching their heads. We have no idea how the team they select will mesh.
 

ricky0034

Registered User
Jun 8, 2010
15,053
7,274
Im not so sure. Vegas made many picks that left people scratching their heads. We have no idea how the team they select will mesh.

Vegas became what they did because they managed to get teams to agree to not talk to each other if they were negotiating with them and were able to make trades like picking up Theodore to pick Clayton Stoner instead of Josh Manson or getting Marchessault for agreeing to pick up Reilly Smith or getting a first and second rounder for agreeing to select William Karlsson(lol)

good luck to anyone in Seattle trying to replicate that
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
17,212
18,334
Ya, we are destined to never have a lottery pick. Luckily we got Seider

Hey, this might be the year we land a lottery pick.

Even if we don't end up with a lottery pick this year the value of the player between 3 and 6 (where it looks like we'll pick) is very marginal. It's not the same change in quality as last year from Lafreniere/Byfield/Stutzle to Raymond+.

The top 3 that I think will be the most likely to maxing their potential are Owen Power, Matt Beniers and Dylan Guenther. The others may take more time to develop, but Hughes, Clarke, Johnson and Eklund all look to have 1st line/1st pair potential.
 

Reno

Registered User
Jan 21, 2007
439
223
I've been struggling to find clarity on the the 2 lottery wins in 5 years rule. Does that begin with this years lottery? or does it begin next year?
 
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heyfolks

Registered User
Apr 30, 2007
1,821
569
fed up with this tank era . trade the 2022 1st to somebody for their like wise early 2021 1st . also trade the 2023 1st for another 2021 1st if can .
maybe get sweetners back in these deals too . then 7/1 sign every excellent vet to short term big coin deals to get this show on the road . edler-martinez-foligno-landeskog-etc , and start gunning for the playoffs . look for other ways to improve organization besides the draft . such as coaching , nutrition , training . scrutinize the whole organization looking for other ways to become a dynasty besides the draft . call in some outsiders from beyond the nhl to scrutinize the organization . i see what the vegas owners military mind did to instantly make vegas a powerhouse and know that he broke the mold and found new ways , thats where i want to look instead of staying in this ugly tank era ... and piling up extra 1sts this draft speeds up the rebuild instead of waiting to get early pix a year or two down the road . and getting the ball rolling would make todays roster happier to boot... i know many will say this draft is weak and theres better players next draft , im over that . jack hughes was supposed to be god , and others . but in reality its a guessing game , so get aggressive and attempt getting back on our feet quickly ...

I am not in total agreement with your strategy but was just scouring the 21 and 22 draft to look at trade options.

Something like the Wings giving up both of their #1 picks for the Sabres #1 (or whoever ends up in the top slot) plus picking up the Sabres (whoever) 3rd round pick this season. IT could also be the opposite and the Wings give up the Oilers pick in the 2nd round. My thought on the 3rd coming to the Wings is the lack of consensus on the top player. Of course this also depends on where the Wings land in the lottery. I get the idea of the law of large numbers but I wouldn't be dealing away 1st round picks. That is a pre-cap era strategy that is sure to back fire. (My strategy keeps that 1st rounder, it just moves the team up in the round).


OR.... move down.

They trade the Caps pick to the Yotes for their 3nd round pick (moving down 12 slots) and #1 next year. that or they move down in the first 5 slots to pick up yet another 2nd round pick.


I doubt any of this happens but building these scenarios is more interesting than watching this team play. That Hawks game was a miserable afternoon. I had to tune into the Caps/Bruins game to watch an exciting hockey. I tell the Caps picked up a dynamite winger. Maybe you heard of him?
 

Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,317
7,657
Bellingham, WA
Vegas became what they did because they managed to get teams to agree to not talk to each other if they were negotiating with them and were able to make trades like picking up Theodore to pick Clayton Stoner instead of Josh Manson or getting Marchessault for agreeing to pick up Reilly Smith or getting a first and second rounder for agreeing to select William Karlsson(lol)

good luck to anyone in Seattle trying to replicate that
Keep in mind that some teams still have cap issues because of the flat cap, so there will be some deals, especially with Tampa.

I don't think they'll be in the Cup finals by any means, but I'm expecting a borderline playoff team.
 

JustJokinenAround

just a goofball
Feb 5, 2018
1,015
536
a local rink
Vegas became what they did because they managed to get teams to agree to not talk to each other if they were negotiating with them and were able to make trades like picking up Theodore to pick Clayton Stoner instead of Josh Manson or getting Marchessault for agreeing to pick up Reilly Smith or getting a first and second rounder for agreeing to select William Karlsson(lol)

good luck to anyone in Seattle trying to replicate that

the ducks are never getting rid of manson.

"your wife doesn't love you as much as the ducks love josh manson" - some random GM
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
17,212
18,334
So...

Earlier this year I said that there was an outside chance that Detroit wouldn't be the last place team in the division.

Right now that belongs to Columbus. We're tied with them for points, but they have more goals against.

This makes me sad.
 

Leadzedder

Registered User
Jan 2, 2005
1,812
673
So...

Earlier this year I said that there was an outside chance that Detroit wouldn't be the last place team in the division.

Right now that belongs to Columbus. We're tied with them for points, but they have more goals against.

This makes me sad.

Second tie breaker is regulation wins. We have 15. They have 13.

Jersey first. Now Columbus. Calgary next?

“At 10th overall the wings are proud to select....”
 
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