2021 Blues Regular Season multi-purpose thread

[Frenzy31]

Shocked Brown isn’t in for Kostin.

 

[Blueston]

Shocked Brown isn’t in for Kostin.

Brown was pretty invisible last game given how much ice time he had.

 

[Blueston]

I want to briefly discuss Tarasenko's potential summer trade value because I've been kicking it around in my head lately. I'm assuming that he finishes the year with 25 goals and 70 points. He's currently on pace for 30 goals and 75 points if he plays 75 games (he's missed 4 so far, so that gives him a buffer to miss 3 more games and see a slight decrease in production).

I'm not sure that he returns more than a mid-1st in this draft or a top 10 protected 2023 1st from a team expected to make the playoffs. He'd be an extended rental that costs $7.5M against the cap in a league where most interested teams will have their own cap issues. Most teams looking to add him couldn't afford to take on the salary. But I've been thinking lately about the Blues' willingness and ability to retain salary on him to increase that return. I think that we could probably retain $1-2M on him and still make the cap work for next season (depending on the amount of bonus overages we take this season and what (if anything) we do about the LHD). I think you have to consider it if doing so expands the market from a couple teams willing to offer a mid-1st to half a dozen teams willing to offer a mid-1st and a prospect.

Even if we want to deal Tank now, I think it is going to be nearly impossible to deal Tank until this summer. The teams that have cap space to take him now are generally out of playoff contention. The teams that are contenders have no space. Only potential in-season landing spots are maybe California teams, and I don't know that any of them are really fits.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Brown was pretty invisible last game given how much ice time he had.

Brown is very close to scoring. I have no idea what Kostin is doing out there.

 

[Brian39]

Even if we want to deal Tank now, I think it is going to be nearly impossible to deal Tank until this summer. The teams that have cap space to take him now are generally out of playoff contention. The teams that are contenders have no space. Only potential in-season landing spots are maybe California teams, and I don't know that any of them are really fits.

The Rangers also have the space to do it. It would create a cap headache for next season, but not an insurmountable one if you can get 2 playoff runs of a Panarin-anyone-Tarasenko line.

Other than that you are largely correct though. A mid-season trade would very likely need to involve noticeable salary coming back. It would almost have to be a 3 team trade for us to recoup the value we would need to make it work. I'm not advocating for trading him mid-season, but simply noting that his last remaining card if he wants out ASAP is to wield his NTC to force Army to make a decision between trading him now or watching him walk in the summer of 2023. Unless we could trade him for a cost-controlled stud LHD mid-season, I'd rather take what we can get for him in the summer or hold him until he walks in 2023.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I know people got hyped for Brown after his quick start, but I think he ultimately is what he is. Probably a bit better than he was in Ottawa or was given credit for, but he's ultimately in that 4th line/spare forward spot, where he doesn't do much to hurt you, but also not much to help you.

 

[MissouriMook]

I want to briefly discuss Tarasenko's potential summer trade value because I've been kicking it around in my head lately. I'm assuming that he finishes the year with 25 goals and 70 points. He's currently on pace for 30 goals and 75 points if he plays 75 games (he's missed 4 so far, so that gives him a buffer to miss 3 more games and see a slight decrease in production).

I'm not sure that he returns more than a mid-1st in this draft or a top 10 protected 2023 1st from a team expected to make the playoffs. He'd be an extended rental that costs $7.5M against the cap in a league where most interested teams will have their own cap issues. Most teams looking to add him couldn't afford to take on the salary. But I've been thinking lately about the Blues' willingness and ability to retain salary on him to increase that return. I think that we could probably retain $1-2M on him and still make the cap work for next season (depending on the amount of bonus overages we take this season and what (if anything) we do about the LHD). I think you have to consider it if doing so expands the market from a couple teams willing to offer a mid-1st to half a dozen teams willing to offer a mid-1st and a prospect.

One thing to keep in mind regarding his summer trade value is that we can give permission to the acquiring team to discuss the terms of an extension. Given that he still has a full NTC, it stands to reason that he would not likely agree to a trade to a destination where he would not also agree to extend. This might not have much value in the end, but even if it only nets us an additional 3rd or 4th round pick it's not nothing.

 

[MissouriMook]

Shocked Brown isn’t in for Kostin.

I'd actually prefer to see Joshua in that role if he's still on the roster.

 

[Brian39]

I know people got hyped for Brown after his quick start, but I think he ultimately is what he is. Probably a bit better than he was in Ottawa or was given credit for, but he's ultimately in that 4th line/spare forward spot, where he doesn't do much to hurt you, but also not much to help you.

I'm good with that. He's played on a 15 goal, 30 point pace in a defensive, 4th line role and has put up good possession numbers to boot. Yes most of that came in a hot start, but most 4th line guys score in spurts like that.

I'll be very satisfied if we can re-sign him for $900k, plug him into a defense-first bottom 6 role for 70 games, and see him go for 10G, 15A, 50 hits and decent possession numbers. That's above expected for the 11th-13th forward on the roster and filling out our 10th-14th forwards for cheap is a must next year. It wouldn't be a high profile "look how Army fleeced them" trade, but it would still be a trade that turned an aging/middling asset into a cheap asset that perfectly meets an organizational need.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I'm good with that. He's played on a 15 goal, 30 point pace in a defensive, 4th line role and has put up good possession numbers to boot. Yes most of that came in a hot start, but most 4th line guys score in spurts like that.

I'll be very satisfied if we can re-sign him for $900k, plug him into a defense-first bottom 6 role for 70 games, and see him go for 10G, 15A, 50 hits and decent possession numbers. That's above expected for the 11th-13th forward on the roster and filling out our 10th-14th forwards for cheap is a must next year. It wouldn't be a high profile "look how Army fleeced them" trade, but it would still be a trade that turned an aging/middling asset into a cheap asset that perfectly meets an organizational need.

Yeah, and I'll say that's not a bad thing either. He's certainly surpassed my low expectations that I had for him. I just don't think it's unreasonable that he's the spare forward. We dumped cap, which we needed to do, and still got a somewhat useful asset in return.

 

[Brian39]

One thing to keep in mind regarding his summer trade value is that we can give permission to the acquiring team to discuss the terms of an extension. Given that he still has a full NTC, it stands to reason that he would not likely agree to a trade to a destination where he would not also agree to extend. This might not have much value in the end, but even if it only nets us an additional 3rd or 4th round pick it's not nothing.

Fair point, but I don't know that the bolded tells the full story. He'd likely be willing to extend with most teams he'd accept a trade to assuming they offered his full market UFA value. And there is always the possibility that he would accept a trade to any place that he felt he could rack up 30 goals and 75 points, even if he only has a shorter list of destinations in mind to finish his career. It wouldn't be the first time a player elected not to bring their family to a city for a potential 1 year stop in order to test the UFA market. His next contract is probably his last one, so I think he will be more picky than he'll be about his next location.

But I do agree about us allowing teams to feel out an extension. That could increase his value (although it may force us to postpone the trade until after the draft).

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I still think Brown is more useful in the lineup than Kostin due to him being able the play the center position. But we have like 7 other forwards who can play center if needed besides Brown as well.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I still think Brown is more useful in the lineup than Kostin due to him being able the play the center position. But we have like 7 other forwards who can play center if needed besides Brown as well.

Yeah, 6 of them, with 4 capable of centering a top 6 line this season. Center used to be a major weak spot for the organization, but it's now a massive strength.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

Let's say you're Army and Tarasenko's agent comes to you today and says "if my client is not traded by this year's trade deadline, he will rescind any existing NTC waiver and refuse to waive his NTC in the future. Either he is moved in the next 2 months or he is going to play out his contract in St. Louis. He will not be signing an extension." What do you do?

Because if Tarasenko still wants out sooner than later, that is absolutely what his agent should do. Since bungling the issue this summer, that has really been the only plausible card left to play. You let Tarasenko pump up his value and then force the Blues into a situation where they have to move him quickly or commit to holding him through the contract. Players take on a lot of risk going from a good situation to an unknown situation in a UFA year. If he has a slow start in 2022/23 while he acclimates to a new team/system, that could cost him millions of dollars on the next deal. Tarasenko still holds a full NTC and his primary concern is his future. There is a decent chance that he isn't interested in a trade this summer. If that's the case, I'd rather hold him for this 2 year window with Thomas/Kyrou/Barby on budget deals than trade him now. He has fully demonstrated that he is a professional and won't let the off-ice stuff impact his job performance.

Even if he would okay a trade this summer, I'm not sold that holding him for another push in 2022/23 and letting him walk is a terrible option. I believe that the trade return on him would be good and make it worth moving him in the summer. However, it wouldn't be worth it if it is simply for futures. We are in a massive cap crunch for 2023/24. We can't really replace him with an asset that makes $5M+ beyond 2023 because we need to worry about large raises for multiple guys (or acquiring replacements for major contributors). We can't use the freed up cap space from moving him on a UFA, because those require a multi-year commitment. If our only options are to noticeably downgrade the 2022/23 roster (to gain futures) or keep him for 2022/23 and lose him for nothing, my choice is to keep him.

Here is my top strategic choice: quickly use futures assets to acquire a legit top 4 LHD that is cost controlled for the next 2-4 years. My primary target is Chychrun, but I'm open to other options if they meet that criteria. It wouldn't be the first time Army has pulled an unexpected move out of seemingly nowhere. Keep Tarasenko, make the cap work this season as best as you can, accept that we'll be taking an overage into next season and then trade Tarasenko for futures at the draft to offset the acquisition cost of the LHD as much as possible. However, to go this route, there needs to be long talk with Tarasenko and his agent to ensure that he is comfortable with that. We need a firm commitment that he is comfortable playing out the season and then being traded at the draft. If he is not willing to commit to that, then you need to make a decision about trading him now or being willing to let him walk as a UFA.

This all makes sense and as always, appreciate your insight/thoughtfulness. If his thought process has changed on a trade request, would be important to know for sure.

If Vlad wants to stay - enjoys the camaraderie with Barby, Buch, Kostin, etc., mended fences with Army and Chief - enough to extend, and would be willing to do 4-5 years at a reasonable AAV, I'd be all about that. If it comes down to extending one of Perron or Vlad over the offseason, I choose Vlad.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Perron is likely pushed out anyway. Without much hope of the cap significantly raising in the near future, we are going to need all the space we have to get Thomas and Kyrou signed, and possibly Barbashev if he produces like this next season. Thomas and Kyrou are at least RFA, but they will easily start at a $5M+ cap hit. If they maintain current production for this season and next, they are getting big deals.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Perron is likely pushed out anyway. Without much hope of the cap significantly raising in the near future, we are going to need all the space we have to get Thomas and Kyrou signed, and possibly Barbashev if he produces like this next season. Thomas and Kyrou are at least RFA, but they will easily start at a $5M+ cap hit. If they maintain current production for this season and next, they are getting big deals.

That's an understatement. If they keep this up they are going to be the highest paid Blues players in History by quite a bit.

 

[bleedblue1223]

That's an understatement. If they keep this up they are going to be the highest paid Blues players in History by quite a bit.

Ok, if they are reasonably in a 70ish point pace. While still having some RFA years left, the cap hit won't be as has as if it would be all UFA years, but will still be high.

Yeah, if Kyrou is ppg+ from here on out, he could very well be our highest paid player, at least in salary cap era. We forget how much we spent on our stars before that initial lockout. Pronger/MacInnis/Weight/Tkachuk, they all made bank, even in today's numbers.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Seems like Chief wants Brown in the top 9 and not on the 4th line.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

 

[bleedblue1223]

The genius in the Blues organization that decided to sort that graphic by the dates on the left and not the dates on the right, needs a serious talking to.

 

[execwrite1]

So what do the lines look like with everyone healthy? Who sits in the press box?

 

[joe galiba]

The genius in the Blues organization that decided to sort that graphic by the dates on the left and not the dates on the right, needs a serious talking to.

LIFO vs FIFO

 

[BlueDream]

I’m fine sitting Brown at least a game, as he has cooled off and you want to keep him hungry.

Still, the guy that needs to come out of the lineup is Bozak, who has absolutely sucked this season. 1 goal and 7 total points in 32 games. He’s a -9 and one of the only minus players that isn’t on our top unit (i.e. ROR, Perron, Saad, Parayko, etc). He’s not even facing top competition so that makes it more alarming. His FO% has taken a huge hit from where it used to be. He kills penalties but isn’t even one of our premier guys there anymore. Dude is old and slow.

Give me Brown or Joshua over Bozak easily. At least they have size, and are young and may still grow into their potential. Bozie has been a good player for us in the past but he’s done nothing this season.

 

[Xerloris]

Let's say you're Army and Tarasenko's agent comes to you today and says "if my client is not traded by this year's trade deadline, he will rescind any existing NTC waiver and refuse to waive his NTC in the future. Either he is moved in the next 2 months or he is going to play out his contract in St. Louis. He will not be signing an extension." What do you do?

Because if Tarasenko still wants out sooner than later, that is absolutely what his agent should do. Since bungling the issue this summer, that has really been the only plausible card left to play. You let Tarasenko pump up his value and then force the Blues into a situation where they have to move him quickly or commit to holding him through the contract. Players take on a lot of risk going from a good situation to an unknown situation in a UFA year. If he has a slow start in 2022/23 while he acclimates to a new team/system, that could cost him millions of dollars on the next deal. Tarasenko still holds a full NTC and his primary concern is his future. There is a decent chance that he isn't interested in a trade this summer. If that's the case, I'd rather hold him for this 2 year window with Thomas/Kyrou/Barby on budget deals than trade him now. He has fully demonstrated that he is a professional and won't let the off-ice stuff impact his job performance.

Even if he would okay a trade this summer, I'm not sold that holding him for another push in 2022/23 and letting him walk is a terrible option. I believe that the trade return on him would be good and make it worth moving him in the summer. However, it wouldn't be worth it if it is simply for futures. We are in a massive cap crunch for 2023/24. We can't really replace him with an asset that makes $5M+ beyond 2023 because we need to worry about large raises for multiple guys (or acquiring replacements for major contributors). We can't use the freed up cap space from moving him on a UFA, because those require a multi-year commitment. If our only options are to noticeably downgrade the 2022/23 roster (to gain futures) or keep him for 2022/23 and lose him for nothing, my choice is to keep him.

Here is my top strategic choice: quickly use futures assets to acquire a legit top 4 LHD that is cost controlled for the next 2-4 years. My primary target is Chychrun, but I'm open to other options if they meet that criteria. It wouldn't be the first time Army has pulled an unexpected move out of seemingly nowhere. Keep Tarasenko, make the cap work this season as best as you can, accept that we'll be taking an overage into next season and then trade Tarasenko for futures at the draft to offset the acquisition cost of the LHD as much as possible. However, to go this route, there needs to be long talk with Tarasenko and his agent to ensure that he is comfortable with that. We need a firm commitment that he is comfortable playing out the season and then being traded at the draft. If he is not willing to commit to that, then you need to make a decision about trading him now or being willing to let him walk as a UFA.

In this situation I would go balls deep on Chychrun and keep Tarasenko and let him walk in FA. Tarasenko is am absolute stud right now and this year plus next having him gives us the best chance to win a cup.

 

[Celtic Note]

I’m fine sitting Brown at least a game, as he has cooled off and you want to keep him hungry.

Still, the guy that needs to come out of the lineup is Bozak, who has absolutely sucked this season. 1 goal and 7 total points in 32 games. He’s a -9 and one of the only minus players that isn’t on our top unit (i.e. ROR, Perron, Saad, Parayko, etc). He’s not even facing top competition so that makes it more alarming. His FO% has taken a huge hit from where it used to be. He kills penalties but isn’t even one of our premier guys there anymore. Dude is old and slow.

Give me Brown or Joshua over Bozak easily. At least they have size, and are young and may still grow into their potential. Bozie has been a good player for us in the past but he’s done nothing this season.

I like Bozak’s body of work previously with the Blues, but this year he just looks shouldn’t be suiting up unless injuries or illnesses hits.