2021 Blues Regular Season multi-purpose thread

[WeWentBlues]

It is puzzling. The optics look terrible (number of games allowing 3+ goals and 4+ goals) but I'm never really disappointed with the goals he lets in save for the GWG on Saturday night vs. Toronto. I feel like he makes a lot of saves you wouldn't expect him to make on a nightly basis.

 

[BlueMed]

It is puzzling. The optics look terrible (number of games allowing 3+ goals and 4+ goals) but I'm never really disappointed with the goals he lets in save for the GWG on Saturday night vs. Toronto. I feel like he makes a lot of saves you wouldn't expect him to make on a nightly basis.

The numbers don't necessarily account for quality. This is why you cannot watch a hockey game on a spreadsheet. You can look at all the numbers in the world, but that will never replace the experience of watching it.

 

[MissouriMook]

The numbers don't necessarily account for quality. This is why you cannot watch a hockey game on a spreadsheet. You can look at all the numbers in the world, but that will never replace the experience of watching it.

To this point, he doesn't seem sharp more often than not, he doesn't seem focused more often than not, and he seems to have struggled with puck tracking lately, which used to be a strength of his, especially relative to Allen. Maybe the dude just needs glasses.

 

[execwrite1]

It is puzzling. The optics look terrible (number of games allowing 3+ goals and 4+ goals) but I'm never really disappointed with the goals he lets in save for the GWG on Saturday night vs. Toronto. I feel like he makes a lot of saves you wouldn't expect him to make on a nightly basis.

Over sufficient time, numbers don't lie. You are what they say you are.

 

[BlueMed]

To this point, he doesn't seem sharp more often than not, he doesn't seem focused more often than not, and he seems to have struggled with puck tracking lately, which used to be a strength of his, especially relative to Allen. Maybe the dude just needs glasses.

Your observations are totally valid, but just remember that good goaltenders can go through hazy spells and give up bad goals.

 

[MissouriMook]

Your observations are totally valid, but just remember that good goaltenders can go through hazy spells and give up bad goals.

I don't disagree, but the inconsistency seems like this has been going on all season, and even back to last season and the playoffs. It doesn't just seem like a "spell". He just seems "off" to me more than a typical good/great starter, but that may just be fan bias creeping in since I watch him more than any other goalie in the league and my expectations for him are higher than for any other goalie in the league.

 

[Brian39]

I totally get the concerns, but while fans often look at the short term I am pretty sure front offices are looking more long term. I doubt they would reconsider a 6-year deal after only half a season no matter what the situation. Most contracts are a gamble to some degree, but we have to consider where we would be if we hadn't signed Binnington. We would have gone into this past offseason with a massive question mark in net, and no one could have expected Husso to look so much better this year than last. If Binner had walked we would have been forced to acquire another starting caliber goalie either via FA or trade, and you have no idea how the new guy would have assimilated with his new team. The Blues are a pretty close team, so how would the rest of the team have reacted if they had let Binner walk and brought in a new guy?

The timing kind of forced the Blues hand to commit to Binnington, and I'd say he earned the benefit of the doubt. They will give him every opportunity to find his game as well they should, but in the short term they need to give Husso more starts and see if he can keep up his very high level of play. There is plenty of time before the playoffs to find out which option will give us the best chance of success.

The timing was 100% our own doing. We gave him a 2 year deal that walked him straight to his first year of UFA eligibility. We could have given him a 1 year deal (that would expire with him still as an RFA). We could have given him a 3 year deal. If he refused to sign either, we could have taken him tor arbitration. His best comp was Matt Murray, who put up noticeably better playoff stats on his rookie Cup run and was a better AHL goalie before making the jump. Murray got $3.75M AAV on a 3 year deal. We weren't at risk of an arbitrator awarding Binner more than the $4.4M AAV we gave him on the 2 year deal.

We can't blame his contract on bad timing. We created the timing.

 

[BlueMed]

I don't disagree, but the inconsistency seems like this has been going on all season, and even back to last season and the playoffs. It doesn't just seem like a "spell". He just seems "off" to me more than a typical good/great starter, but that may just be fan bias creeping in since I watch him more than any other goalie in the league and my expectations for him are higher than for any other goalie in the league.

Out of Colorado, St Louis and Vegas's netminders, Binnington is the most proven. We are lucky to have him, and even luckier to have Husso backing him up.

 

[wiscrev]

Eh, there's always ups and downs in anything. Ask yourself, "Am I always having a good day?" We all go through stretches of bad days. Last tw0 seasons have been out of sync for everyone.

 

[tfriede2]

Eh, there's always ups and downs in anything. Ask yourself, "Am I always having a good day?" We all go through stretches of bad days. Last tw0 seasons have been out of sync for everyone.

Not Kyrou

 

[Bluesfan54]

Eh, there's always ups and downs in anything. Ask yourself, "Am I always having a good day?" We all go through stretches of bad days. Last tw0 seasons have been out of sync for everyone.

He did just have COVID so that might be part of it. O’Reilly is finally just starting to look like his old self after his bout with the bug. Depending on how hard it hits somebody, it can take some time to get back to 100%. Just ask Jonathan Toews.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think people forget that he entered the league super early in his D+2 season as a teenager. That is a bit rare for guys drafted outside the top 10. He's only 22 now. This is the years a lot of guys drafted in his range enter the league. Most development trajectories have some stops and starts, we just don't see them because they are in juniors or the AHL. We saw all of Thomas'. Add in a couple flukey shortened seasons, and injuries, its not a surprise he took a bit to become a full fledged star. Kyrou is a year older, but nobody is talking about his development path and what took so long for him to click. We weren't watching it outside of a 15 or so games a year until last year.

There are two life lessons that I have learned that I think apply here:
- People mature at different rates (some not all that much), but Thomas is young so it seems on time to me.
- Things in life click at different times for us all, resulting in performance jumps

I might be misinterpreting these posts, but I wanted to clarify in case my post implied any slight negative or a backhanded compliment to Thomas. I'm not implying that Thomas has been a disappointment or is behind his peers. He stakes up great to the other centers drafted in the 1st round of his draft, I think you could make the argument that he's the current best center from the 2017 draft. That's as much of a compliment for the development he's done for this season, and his ability to jump into a competitive team and make a role for himself as a rookie as a 19 year old. I just wanted to make a post to give him credit for taking that next step that not all players are able to take.

And for the Kyrou mention, he definitely deserves a post giving him credit as well. He's gone from a player where the skills were clearly there, but this year he's just become a much more assertive player with the puck. He's averaging almost 1 full shot more per game than last season, and it's not like you can attribute all of that to an increase in ice time. He could very well be our best offensive forward since Demitra.

So, just in case my post was interpreted in a way where I was implying that Thomas was trending down prior to this season, I wanted to clarify that my post should be viewed as purely positive. After years of not really developing many high-end offensive players, it's pretty cool that we've gone from Tarasenko/Schwartz to Thomas/Kyrou.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

team played incredible for chucky sideburns, its a tragedy that they stopped feeding him starts

Let it go man. Its over.

 

[Renard]

I'm glad we finally retired Pronger's number. He was and is the Blues' greatest player.

He was booed when he first came here. We traded a very popular player to get him , and Pronger was young and green at the time. Whenever Pronger made a mistake, he heard boos.

 

[Renard]

Good to see Tarasenko shooting a slap shot, and a one timer no--less. Pang said that he is working with Ott on the slap shot.

It means that Tarasenko isn't too proud to see the need and be willing to go back to school. Good for him.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I wonder how the lines will look when Buch comes back. One of Barbie or Schenn has to move to the 3rd line center spot right? So many options for the top 9 on this team. Could go three scoring lines, a scoring line and two defensive lines. Two scoring lines and a defensive line. This team is stacked on the front end.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Good to see Tarasenko shooting a slap shot, and a one timer no--less. Pang said that he is working with Ott on the slap shot.

It means that Tarasenko isn't too proud to see the need and be willing to go back to school. Good for him.

Yeah, one of the goals O'Reilly scored was because of a rebound from Tarasenko's one-timer. Something I'm mildly curious on, but will 100% not do the work to find out, is how many assists that Tarasenko gets this year from rebounds off his shot compared to other seasons. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some level of increase. One piece of evidence is his primary assists per 60 are the highest its ever been in his career with secondary assists per 60 being in line with his averages.

If a trade goes down, I want to run through some historical comps because I don't really think the Gaborik to Columbus trade really applies anymore. I could also seeing Army holding and just let the contract run out and then see what happens if he wants to come back or not.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

I could also seeing Army holding and just let the contract run out and then see what happens if he wants to come back or not.

Holding and letting the contract run out would be terrible asset management. This summer, Army either needs to trade or extend Vlad. No middle ground.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Holding and letting the contract run out would be terrible asset management. This summer, Army either needs to trade or extend Vlad. No middle ground.

I mean it still depends. If we believe Tarasenko would still be motivated and would still produce at a similar rate next season, keeping him next season would still likely give us the best chance for a Cup. Maybe if we can use his cap for a similar level player, but that's probably more unlikely than not. If we could move him and use his cap for a top pair LHD, then great, but besides that we are probably downgrading the current roster. We are at a point where long-term asset management isn't as big of a priority as maximizing our Cup chances in the short-term.

 

[MissouriMook]

Holding and letting the contract run out would be terrible asset management. This summer, Army either needs to trade or extend Vlad. No middle ground.

I agree, but the player has a say in it. If he refuses any and all trades and doesn't engage in extension talks he can ride off into unrestricted free agency at the end of next season. If he truly want to leave, he should absolutely do that unless he prefers to leave sooner.

 

[Brian39]

Holding and letting the contract run out would be terrible asset management. This summer, Army either needs to trade or extend Vlad. No middle ground.

Let's say you're Army and Tarasenko's agent comes to you today and says "if my client is not traded by this year's trade deadline, he will rescind any existing NTC waiver and refuse to waive his NTC in the future. Either he is moved in the next 2 months or he is going to play out his contract in St. Louis. He will not be signing an extension." What do you do?

Because if Tarasenko still wants out sooner than later, that is absolutely what his agent should do. Since bungling the issue this summer, that has really been the only plausible card left to play. You let Tarasenko pump up his value and then force the Blues into a situation where they have to move him quickly or commit to holding him through the contract. Players take on a lot of risk going from a good situation to an unknown situation in a UFA year. If he has a slow start in 2022/23 while he acclimates to a new team/system, that could cost him millions of dollars on the next deal. Tarasenko still holds a full NTC and his primary concern is his future. There is a decent chance that he isn't interested in a trade this summer. If that's the case, I'd rather hold him for this 2 year window with Thomas/Kyrou/Barby on budget deals than trade him now. He has fully demonstrated that he is a professional and won't let the off-ice stuff impact his job performance.

Even if he would okay a trade this summer, I'm not sold that holding him for another push in 2022/23 and letting him walk is a terrible option. I believe that the trade return on him would be good and make it worth moving him in the summer. However, it wouldn't be worth it if it is simply for futures. We are in a massive cap crunch for 2023/24. We can't really replace him with an asset that makes $5M+ beyond 2023 because we need to worry about large raises for multiple guys (or acquiring replacements for major contributors). We can't use the freed up cap space from moving him on a UFA, because those require a multi-year commitment. If our only options are to noticeably downgrade the 2022/23 roster (to gain futures) or keep him for 2022/23 and lose him for nothing, my choice is to keep him.

Here is my top strategic choice: quickly use futures assets to acquire a legit top 4 LHD that is cost controlled for the next 2-4 years. My primary target is Chychrun, but I'm open to other options if they meet that criteria. It wouldn't be the first time Army has pulled an unexpected move out of seemingly nowhere. Keep Tarasenko, make the cap work this season as best as you can, accept that we'll be taking an overage into next season and then trade Tarasenko for futures at the draft to offset the acquisition cost of the LHD as much as possible. However, to go this route, there needs to be long talk with Tarasenko and his agent to ensure that he is comfortable with that. We need a firm commitment that he is comfortable playing out the season and then being traded at the draft. If he is not willing to commit to that, then you need to make a decision about trading him now or being willing to let him walk as a UFA.

 

[Brian39]

I want to briefly discuss Tarasenko's potential summer trade value because I've been kicking it around in my head lately. I'm assuming that he finishes the year with 25 goals and 70 points. He's currently on pace for 30 goals and 75 points if he plays 75 games (he's missed 4 so far, so that gives him a buffer to miss 3 more games and see a slight decrease in production).

I'm not sure that he returns more than a mid-1st in this draft or a top 10 protected 2023 1st from a team expected to make the playoffs. He'd be an extended rental that costs $7.5M against the cap in a league where most interested teams will have their own cap issues. Most teams looking to add him couldn't afford to take on the salary. But I've been thinking lately about the Blues' willingness and ability to retain salary on him to increase that return. I think that we could probably retain $1-2M on him and still make the cap work for next season (depending on the amount of bonus overages we take this season and what (if anything) we do about the LHD). I think you have to consider it if doing so expands the market from a couple teams willing to offer a mid-1st to half a dozen teams willing to offer a mid-1st and a prospect.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And on the Tarasenko one-time/slapshot discussion, he's already at his 3rd highest total in slapshots taken in a season, and is on pace for the most in his career.

NHL Stats

 

[bleedblue1223]

I want to briefly discuss Tarasenko's potential summer trade value because I've been kicking it around in my head lately. I'm assuming that he finishes the year with 25 goals and 70 points. He's currently on pace for 30 goals and 75 points if he plays 75 games (he's missed 4 so far, so that gives him a buffer to miss 3 more games and see a slight decrease in production).

I'm not sure that he returns more than a mid-1st in this draft or a top 10 protected 2023 1st from a team expected to make the playoffs. He'd be an extended rental that costs $7.5M against the cap in a league where most interested teams will have their own cap issues. Most teams looking to add him couldn't afford to take on the salary. But I've been thinking lately about the Blues' willingness and ability to retain salary on him to increase that return. I think that we could probably retain $1-2M on him and still make the cap work for next season (depending on the amount of bonus overages we take this season and what (if anything) we do about the LHD). I think you have to consider it if doing so expands the market from a couple teams willing to offer a mid-1st to half a dozen teams willing to offer a mid-1st and a prospect.

Vanek might be the best comp when he was traded to the Islanders. Granted, I think most agree that was a poor trade for them, but if Tarasenko plays at his current rate, he should get pretty close to that. So, we'd get a player in a similar contract situation, but a tier or 2 below, and then some picks. Depending on the player, it could definitely be a worthwhile trade, but obviously depends on what is actually offered. He'd still have good enough value for 1 year if he finishes at his current pace.

 

[bleedblue1223]