Rumor: 2021-22 Trade Rumors and FA Part 4: Because I don't like Roman numerals

[Alienblood]

What are people's thoughts on Colin Miller as a deadline rental?

Right now he's injured but is expected back in early March about 2 weeks before the trade deadline on March 21st.

Obviously the ideal addition would be a big defensive RHD (eg. Manson), but Sakic hasn't tended to go for the big deadline fish but instead typically targets the secondary market where rental prices are in the mid-round pick range (eg. 4th for Namestnikov; 4th for Nemeth 50% retained; 3rd for Brassard + 6th).

Miller played in the cup final with Vegas so he'd tick the 'playoff experience' box which Sakic values highly. His analytics with Buffalo have been middling (eg. 0.4 GSVA this year as per chart below), but the last time he was on a good team his metrics were stellar (see chart at the bottom from his season with Boston/Vegas).

In terms of usage he can play all situations and both sides, though he'd probably slot onto the 3rd pairing next to the more defensively-oriented Murray or Jack Johnson, along with the 2nd PK unit.

Toews ------ Makar
Girard ------ EJ
Murray/JJ - Miller

His caphit this season is $3.85m so retention would be needed to get it down to for example $1.925m (50% ret.), or $962.5k (double retained).

Even with retention the price to acquire Miller will probably be reasonably low given that he'll be coming off injury. The market will also be pretty saturated with numerous sellers too, and most contenders will probably be focused on other RHD's like Manson, Klingberg, Ristolainen, Braun, and Stralman. Perhaps something like a 3rd to Buffalo + a 4th/5th for double retention would get it done.


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FYI his metrics from the last time he played on a good team:

Wouldn't mind him but how about Connor Murphy ? I like the rugged style and play against the Avs this season.

What is Murphy's contract status ?

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

He’s better than Eklund. But his validity is still a bit up in the air for me.

Apparently he's been the first to call a good handful of things. But I'm still skeptical of his reliability, considerably so when it comes to the Avs.

We should hope he's right though, isn't he the one that is saying Helleson would be the centerpiece?

My problem with him is he refuses to reveal his name. He hides behind his Twitter account, and no one knows how he gets his information. Almost like if he revealed himself he'd get into trouble; as if he might work for one of the "insiders" of NHL media in some capacity (that's just me speculating). Don't dare question anything he says, or he'll call you some choice things and block you. He hasn't done that to me, personally, but you see him do it regularly on Twitter.

As far as his "rumors" go, he'll say something kinda vague that he's hearing "this", and if anyone else in the NHL media that is involved with trade rumors posts/says anything close to the same thing, he claims it was his info and they stole it from him. He's quite childish in how he does it, too, calling them some choice names, losers, etc. He especially seems to have a destain for Elliotte Friedman, which I don't get at all. Often times refuses to call him by name, just calling him "That guy that works on Sportsnet." The thing is, when any of these trades, or moves, are broken by the media, he's always one of the last to report on them. He's never once (that I have seen) gotten on Twitter and mentioned that a deal is imminent and mentioned who is involved. He always seems to piggyback off of Seravalli when it comes to any of that stuff but then throws in something that makes it look like he had heard that move was a possibility, or he heard something similar a couple of days ago but didn't think that team would move said player so he didn't mention it, etc, etc.

If you ask me, right now I'd say he's a phony. I'd venture to guess that he's getting his info from one of the other guys in the NHL rumor media in some way. Whether he works around one of them, has a friend that does, etc., and then he reports it before they do on their radio/podcasts, or taped segments, and then calls it his own. I will readily admit I'm wrong here if he ever calls a real trade before it happens, and not just throws out rumors and innuendo, or past posts about how he knew this 2 days ago but never said anything, or when reveals who he is and how he got involved with this type of reporting.

 

[The Abusement Park]

If Giroux wants to come to Denver, Avs don't need to include a 1st. Maybe a 2nd or even a 3rd along with Helleson, Jost/JTC will do

He’s open to going to multiple teams. It’ll cost a 1st 100%.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

He’s open to going to multiple teams. It’ll cost a 1st 100%.

Probably. But I could also see it being a conditional 1st, especially if we're also attaching a roster player like Jost in the deal.


Something like Helleson/Barron + 2023 2nd(That turns into a 1st if Colorado wins 2 rounds in the playoffs) + Tyson Jost

 

[The Abusement Park]

My problem with him is he refuses to reveal his name. He hides behind his Twitter account, and no one knows how he gets his information. Almost like if he revealed himself he'd get into trouble; as if he might work for one of the "insiders" of NHL media in some capacity (that's just me speculating). Don't dare question anything he says, or he'll call you some choice things and block you. He hasn't done that to me, personally, but you see him do it regularly on Twitter.

As far as his "rumors" go, he'll say something kinda vague that he's hearing "this", and if anyone else in the NHL media that is involved with trade rumors posts/says anything close to the same thing, he claims it was his info and they stole it from him. He's quite childish in how he does it, too, calling them some choice names, losers, etc. He especially seems to have a destain for Elliotte Friedman, which I don't get at all. Often times refuses to call him by name, just calling him "That guy that works on Sportsnet." The thing is, when any of these trades, or moves, are broken by the media, he's always one of the last to report on them. He's never once (that I have seen) gotten on Twitter and mentioned that a deal is imminent and mentioned who is involved. He always seems to piggyback off of Seravalli when it comes to any of that stuff but then throws in something that makes it look like he had heard that move was a possibility, or he heard something similar a couple of days ago but didn't think that team would move said player so he didn't mention it, etc, etc.

If you ask me, right now I'd say he's a phony. I'd venture to guess that he's getting his info from one of the other guys in the NHL rumor media in some way. Whether he works around one of them, has a friend that does, etc., and then he reports it before they do on their radio/podcasts, or taped segments, and then calls it his own. I will readily admit I'm wrong here if he ever calls a real trade before it happens, and not just throws out rumors and innuendo, or past posts about how he knew this 2 days ago but never said anything, or when reveals who he is and how he got involved with this type of reporting.

This is where I’m at as well. Eklund literally throws shit at a wall, but he’s facing the wrong way so nothing sticks. NRD doesn’t post report nearly as much as Eklund, but like you said he’s way more vague about what he’s reporting.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Probably. But I could also see it being a conditional 1st, especially if we're also attaching a roster player like Jost in the deal.


Something like Helleson/Barron + 2023 2nd(That turns into a 1st if Colorado wins 2 rounds in the playoffs) + Tyson Jost

If he said “Colorado is the only team I’m waiving for” than I’d agree. But there will be multiple teams in on him. I’d be shocked if there’s not a 1st involved.

 

[AvsCOL]

This is where I’m at as well. Eklund literally throws shit at a wall, but he’s facing the wrong way so nothing sticks. NRD doesn’t post report nearly as much as Eklund, but like you said he’s way more vague about what he’s reporting.

I disagree. The podcast is good, and he’s generally correct on what he says. He was all over the Eichel trade days before anyone else.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If he said “Colorado is the only team I’m waiving for” than I’d agree. But there will be multiple teams in on him. I’d be shocked if there’s not a 1st involved.

That is still a 1st involved though.

I'm not sure how many teams are actually going to trade 1st round picks at the deadline.

A lot of the top teams have already traded 1sts this year as well.


I think people are going to be surprised at some of the returns we see for the deadline this year. There's way more good quality players available this deadline then usual.

 

[The Merchant]

Another little snippet:



And I'm kinda tired of going to bat for NRD at this point. His track record speaks for itself. If you don't wanna buy in that's fine, but he isn't some grifter like Eklund. He's followed by the likes of Johnston, Wyshynski, McGahey and the Chicklets crew for a reason. All the rumormongering from any insider is just for fun anyway.

 

[Richard88]

Wouldn't mind him but how about Connor Murphy ? I like the rugged style and play against the Avs this season.

What is Murphy's contract status ?

Murphy signed a $4.4m x 4 extension last offseason that only starts next season, so it would be surprising to see Chicago moving him unless there's an overpayment.

 

[Alienblood]

Murphy signed a $4.4m x 4 extension last offseason that only starts next season, so it would be surprising to see Chicago moving him unless there's an overpayment.

Ok thanks. I remember now that he recently signed an extension but thought it was longer ago.

Hard to figure what an overpayment would look like but yes something around Compher plus

 

[Richard88]

"They're determined to make the cap work" sounds like either:

A) they're looking for a third team to get double retention to bring Giroux's caphit down to ~$2.1m, in which case Jost ($2m) would be the likely piece going the other way;

or

B) if there's no double retention and Giroux arrives with just 50% retained (~$4.2m caphit) then Compher ($3.5m) would need to go the other way. Compher is probably the most redundant piece in the Avs forward group given that we have LOC and NAK as bottom 6 RHS forwards who produce at a similar rate but costing less than 1/3 of Compher's caphit. Jost, for his flaws, is still a better center than Compher and has a lower caphit which works better for the Avs going forward.

In an ideal world we'd be getting double-retention on Giroux ($2.1m) and sending Compher ($3.5m) the other way to free up another $1.4m that can be used to add a Dman at the deadline as well.

 

[Richard88]

im torn on the roster player that we trade at the deadline. JTC makes more money and would give more flexibility, but Jost is a worse player.

I'm not at all torn on whether to move JTC or Jost. I'm more torn about what prospect to move. Helleson would be an absolutely perfect partner for Girard and replacement for EJ if he pans out which I think he will. Big mobile RHD's who can pass the puck and play good defense are hard to find, but I guess you have to give to get in trades.

 

[John Mandalorian]

"They're determined to make the cap work" sounds like either:

A) they're looking for a third team to get double retention to bring Giroux's caphit down to ~$2.1m, in which case Jost ($2m) would be the likely piece going the other way;

or

B) if there's no double retention and Giroux arrives with just 50% retained (~$4.2m caphit) then Compher ($3.5m) would need to go the other way. Compher is probably the most redundant piece in the Avs forward group given that we have LOC and NAK as bottom 6 RHS forwards who produce at a similar rate but costing less than 1/3 of Compher's caphit. Jost, for his flaws, is still a better center than Compher and has a lower caphit which works better for the Avs going forward.

In an ideal world we'd be getting double-retention on Giroux ($2.1m) and sending Compher ($3.5m) the other way to free up another $1.4m that can be used to add a Dman at the deadline as well.

I heard that if they simply waived NAK at the deadline, there's enough room without a 3rd team.

 

[Balthazar]

I'm not at all torn on whether to move JTC or Jost. I'm more torn about what prospect to move. Helleson would be an absolutely perfect partner for Girard and replacement for EJ if he pans out which I think he will. Big mobile RHD's who can pass the puck and play good defense are hard to find, but I guess you have to give to get in trades.

Jost isn't 1.5M worse than JTC though. He doesn’t produce as much but doesn’t hurt the team as much either.

I'd rather move JTC

 

[Richard88]

Jost isn't 1.5M worse than JTC though. He doesn’t produce as much but doesn’t hurt the team as much either.

I'd rather move JTC

I agree. I prefer moving Compher over Jost (as I said in my post above), I was simply saying that I wasn't torn on it.

 

[Richard88]

I heard that if they simply waived NAK at the deadline, there's enough room without a 3rd team.

Waiving NAK doesn't solve anything since his caphit is close to league minimum anyways. At best they'd save like $50k by replacing him on the roster with a league minimum contract at the deadline.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Now we're talking. Bucci has done this the last few years, sometimes weeks before a UFA signing or trades happen. If he's mentioning it, it's probably close.

 

[Richard88]

Now we're talking. Bucci has done this the last few years, sometimes weeks before a UFA signing or trades happen. If he's mentioning it, it's probably close.

Landeskog -- Mackinnon -- Rantanen
Giroux ---------- Kadri ----- Burakovsky
Nichuskin ---- Newhook --- O'Connor
MacDermid --- Maltsev ---- Aube-Kubel

Toews -- Makar
Byram -- Girard
Murray/JJ -- EJ

 

[John Mandalorian]

Landeskog -- Mackinnon -- Rantanen
Giroux ---------- Kadri ----- Burakovsky
Nichuskin ---- Newhook --- O'Connor
MacDermid --- Maltsev ---- Aube-Kubel

Toews -- Makar
Byram -- Girard
Murray/JJ -- EJ

Compher and Jost were hit by a bus?

 

[SaltySkywalker]

Compher and Jost were hit by a bus?

Source?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Compher and Jost were hit by a bus?

One of them goes in the Philly trade. I think that much is obvious.

 

[Richard88]

Compher and Jost were hit by a bus?

 

[flyfysher]

Go big. Get Giroux and Braun. Call it good.

 

[Richard88]

If Philadelphia see Compher as a player/contract they don't want to take, could you instead move Compher to the team doing double retention, instead of a 3rd/4th pick?

There were rumours at the ExD (from Seravalli iirc) that Seattle were picking Compher, so perhaps there's still interest there and willingnes to do something like this:

To Philadelphia: 1st + Helleson
To Colorado: Giroux (75% retained, ~$2.1m)
To Seattle: Compher